For now, attention has shifted away from America’s decision in late June to join an elective war against Iran. The disaster is still unfolding — though it’s not too late to correct course. 1/3

Israel and the United States aren’t after regime change in Iran. Their goal is to break the Iranian state, writes CI fellow @veenaa.bsky.social in a new commentary. That’s a huge problem—for the region, for the Iranian people, for U.S. interests, and even for Israel (1/3) tcf.org/content/comm...

Even when Trump makes good foreign policy moves (lifting Syria sanctions, proposing Iran deal), there's no policy process. Just unpredictable imperial caprice. That means we cannot count on implementation of the few good policies — or any strategic consistency.

In search of a Trump Doctrine: CI fellows analyze the president’s MENA trip & conclude that transactionalism is the only unifying credo—even when some outcomes are good. Read more from @aronlund.bsky.social @abujamajem.com @tcambanis.bsky.social @dahliasc.bsky.social‬ @rohanadvani.bsky.social

@centuryintl.bsky.social roundtable on Trump's Gulf tour, featuring @aronlund.bsky.social, @rohanadvani.bsky.social, @veenaa.bsky.social, @tcambanis.bsky.social and @dahliasc.bsky.social 👇🏻 With my take on Syria sanctions relief: "an entirely screwed up way to arrive at the ideal policy outcome."

Faced with the most serious threat in its history, the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” is turning back to basics: local power. (1/6)

In 2023 and 2024, everyone including its own members overestimated the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. In 2025, maybe everyone underestimates it? Good @centuryintl.bsky.social read by @veenaa.bsky.social and @tcambanis.bsky.social: tcf.org/content/repo...

Syria's transition faces a thousand risks, but it still could provide an inspiration, if the new order enshrines rights that are universal, rather than sectarian or communal.

What is the biggest threat to a democratic transition in Syria after Assad? DAWN's new Democracy in Exile Roundtable featuring @loubnamrie.bsky.social @mbazzi.bsky.social @tcambanis.bsky.social @stevenhyde.bsky.social @abujamajem.com and many more:

Really excited to take bold progressive stands with the new president here at @tcfdotorg.bsky.social!

The SIgnal chat was an embarrassing security lapse. The Yemen policy is worse. Trump’s security team is obsessed with raw power and transactionalism — not actual security and results. White House now sees the U.S. security umbrella not as a guarantee but as a commodity for sale.

Persian Gulf countries can’t avoid dealing with the Trump administration, but American “gifts” could lock them into risky long-term arrangements—whether in finance, security, or politics. New commentary from @rohanadvani.bsky.social‬

New report on Axis of Resistance begins corrective work of figuring out *how* diminished is Iran’s network and how, inevitably, it will adapt.

In Damascus in February, I met with dozens of Syrians. Their personal narratives should ground any thinking about Syria’s precarious transition. Takeaway: Syrians are divided along multiple lines — but Assad’s fall has removed the deadliest, most toxic threat. 1/7

Sectarian attacks in Syria have shaken the country. But a dispatch from @tcambanis.bsky.social reminds that the end of the Assad regime is a moral triumph—and has removed the deadliest threat, by far, to Syrians.

@jbdacey.bsky.social cuts through the noise with six things Europe can do right now to help Syria. Not coincidentally, these are the types of things the EU needs to do everywhere in order to promote European interests and values in a world buffeted by wild Trump policies.

Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran puts the Iraqi government in a bind: Baghdad must be careful not to antagonize America, while staying conflict-free with its neighbors - @sajadjiyad.bsky.social in a new commentary.

Trump & Erdogan — emblematic case study of international politics as game of megalomaniac authoritarian personalities. However the relationship turns, it won't be good for the world. @nicholasdanfort.bsky.social for @centuryintl.bsky.social tcf.org/content/comm...

Missed this morning's event on the future of Gaza? Catch the recording of @dahliasc.bsky.social and @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org‬ in conversation with Century International director @tcambanis.bsky.social

Our event on Gaza and Palestine in the age of Trump is tomorrow

Virtual Event: “Trump Pledged to End the War in Gaza. So What Happens Now?” Feat. @centuryintl.bsky.social ’s @tcambanis.bsky.social, @elgindy.bsky.social, and @dahliasc.bsky.social 📆Tuesday, February 18 ⏰ 12–1 pm EST 🔗 bit.ly/GazaRSVP | RSVP today

The Oslo two-state solution has failed. The one-state reality of Israeli citizens and oppressed Palestinian subjects is a travesty. Palestinians & Israelis should instead seek a confederation of two equal states with freedom and rights for all—@dahliasc.bsky.social in a new report.

I returned to Brooklyn upon a freezing evening ready to jump on my bike and go home. Alas it was not to be. Generously they left the seat.

Lebanon broke a multiyear deadlock, electing Army Chief Joesph Aoun president. The thaw is part of the continuing cascade of consequences from October 7 and Israel’s total war — but is not likely to produce a transformational moment for Lebanon. www.bbc.com/news/article...

“Resist the temptations of a cautious ‘wait and see’ approach” on sanctions relief, argues Agathe Demarais. Immediately lifting sanctions on Syria’s central bank and at least some financial institutions is “crucial” for humanitarian aid and starting reconstruction. @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/the-...

Syria’s moment of possibility is fragile. The US and international community must act quickly to create the conditions for recovery, by lifting sanctions and permitting reconstruction and foreign investment. My latest at Century International. tcf.org/content/comm...

Thee best thing on social media was Rabih’s art threads. So glad they’re back!

The fall of Bashar al Assad is cause for great joy. All who care for Syria know the reasons to worry. But first let us rejoice that Syrians overthrew one of history’s most cruel, corrupt; and inept regimes.

See Amnesty’s landmark report — Human slaughterhouse: Mass hangings and extermination at Saydnaya Prison, Syria www.amnesty.org/en/documents...

As we try to make sense of the rebel advance in Syria and the apparent collapse of the regime (and the puzzling lack of engagement from Russia and Iran), Aron Lund and Sam Heller delve into why this is happening, and some of the new risks for which we should prepare.

How am I only finding out today (from my kid on a Wikipedia jag) that the horses are gone from Buyukada? And replaced by Erdogan minibuses.

Trump II will enable more destructive experiments in fashioning “a new Middle East.” US policy could push region to new bottoms but won’t create anything good. @tcambanis.bsky.social in this week's roundtable https://tcf.org/content/report/how-trump-can-make-things-worse-in-the-middle-east

The only silver lining on Middle East policy is that it was already really bad under Biden so getting worse under Trump will be marginal. But still really bad.

@huffpost.bsky.social’s @akbarshahidahmed.bsky.social sees the bad-faith talking points the Biden administration has circulated to Democratic Senate offices ahead of vote objecting to new arms for Israel: www.huffpost.com/entry/biden-...

The Biden administration’s Middle East policy is a shame for the ages. Under Trump it could possible become even more volatile. One to watch: how Trump pursues a possible withdrawal from northeast Syria.

As Trump’s foreign policy team fills up with China hawks and pro-Israel fanatics, Trump is proving that he’s definitely not the “isolationist” he’s purported to be. @3yyash.bsky.social in a new Century roundtable

Never good when your best case scenario is corruption rather than chauvinism

In a new @CenturyIntl roundtable, fellows assess some of the ways Trump II could make things worse for the Middle East https://tcf.org/content/report/how-trump-can-make-things-worse-in-the-middle-east Includes views from our CI fellows, follow here: https://go.bsky.app/L4xSLft

go.bsky.app/L4xSLft We're just getting started on Bluesky! Add this starter pack to follow our fellows and staff—a list that will grow as more folks join the platform.

I’m still getting embarrassing Act Blue fundraising emails from a losing campaign that actively refused to listen to progressive voters and policy experts. At least Biden in 2020 solicited a big tent of views (which he mostly ignored on foreign policy but there was an open door). And, he won.

I would be shocked if Senate Republicans deviated from MAGA. Maybe one or two nominees will be seriously questioned and one of the craziest derailed. But they will enable the movement.

I’m beginning the transition to BlueSky from X. Hope this platform has some of the energy and community of early 2010s Twitter.

No major player has begun the necessary work to revisit bad policies that enabled October 7 and Gaza War. We need to resolve conflicts, not manage them; and alliances based on values, not short-term deals. Otherwise we'll see more war. — w @peterjsalisbury @CenturyIntl tcf.org/content/comm...

The terrifying regional conflagration we’ve been warning about seems to have arrived. Regional conflict currently is roiling at a low ebb, but it'll become a devastating all-out war unless the US forces an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.