In foreign policy as in domestic, Trump’s opponents have so far failed to do much more than chase at his heels with reactive objections as he plows ahead with reckless gambits. (1/5)

After Lebanon’s energy system collapsed in 2019–21, the country’s solar production increased 10x in a few short years—one of the world’s more unlikely renewable energy revolutions. (1/3)

Lebanon finally has a viable plan for Syrian refugees to safely return to their country. But can the plan survive Lebanon’s anti-Syrian politics and the realities of ongoing violence and economic crisis in Syria? 1/3

For now, attention has shifted away from America’s decision in late June to join an elective war against Iran. The disaster is still unfolding—though it’s not too late to correct course. 1/3

Sources to follow on Syria: in a new commentary, @aronlund.bsky.social has compiled a must-follow list of media for policymakers and analysts with a fresh interest in Syrian affairs tcf.org/content/comm...

Trump’s reckless USAID cuts probably slowed Lebanon's solar transition, but they also revealed structural flaws in the aid regime. Lebanese entrepreneurs could pick up some slack—but their impact will be uneven. New Q&A w/ Zack Cuyler & Camillo Stubenberg tcf.org/content/comm...

New CI report by @delaneysimon.bsky.social‬ provides a case study of Joe Biden’s unprecedented efforts last year to sanction Israeli settlers, with crucial lessons for future sanctions efforts against Israeli settlers. (1/6) tcf.org/content/comm...

Israel and the United States aren’t after regime change in Iran. Their goal is to break the Iranian state, writes CI fellow @veenaa.bsky.social in a new commentary. That’s a huge problem—for the region, for the Iranian people, for U.S. interests, and even for Israel (1/3) tcf.org/content/comm...

Syria’s rivers are polluted and overdrawn, its forests depleted, and its wildlife decimated. In a new commentary, @zfshuker.bsky.social writes that Syria’s environmental catastrophe is much more than an aesthetic crisis. In fact, it poses direct threats to its economy and stability.

The Israeli–Palestinian conflict is, at least as much as anything else, a clash between the haves and the have-nots. A new CI report from @dahliasc.bsky.social‬ explains how. (1/6)

Hezbollah may be broken as a fighting force, but its base is still wedded to “resistance,” writes @simagh.bsky.social in a new report from Lebanon. The unique situation offers an object lesson on the limits of military power to change political realities. tcf.org/content/repo...

“Why can’t we be sad?” said a 36-year-old butcher in Beirut. “There were civilians. Should I congratulate people for their deaths? Should we all be congratulating one another?” @simagh.bsky.social captures the disillusionment of Hezbollah’s base in Lebanon in a new report tcf.org/content/repo...

“Claiming victory in death”—@simagh.bsky.social ’s riveting new dispatch from Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon shows that its constituents are doubting the organization, but doubling down on its ideology. New report tcf.org/content/repo...

“An entirely screwed up way to arrive at the ideal policy outcome”— @abujamajem.com on Trump’s welcome lifting of Syria sanctions. New CI roundtable discusses potus MENA trip: tcf.org/content/comm...

In search of a Trump Doctrine: CI fellows analyze the president’s MENA trip & conclude that transactionalism is the only unifying credo—even when some outcomes are good. Read more from @aronlund.bsky.social @abujamajem.com @tcambanis.bsky.social @dahliasc.bsky.social‬ @rohanadvani.bsky.social

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs mean that the 1990s dream of peace and democracy in the Middle East through economic liberalization is dead, writes @rohanadvani.bsky.social in a new commentary. (1/6)

Faced with the most serious threat in its history, the Iran-aligned “Axis of Resistance” is turning back to basics: local power. (1/6)

The fall of Assad hasn’t ended the Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon, as many Lebanese hoped. In fact, even as some displaced go home, new waves of Syrians are going the other way. 1/4

Persian Gulf countries can’t avoid dealing with the Trump administration, but American “gifts” could lock them into risky long-term arrangements—whether in finance, security, or politics. New commentary from @rohanadvani.bsky.social‬

US policymakers need to face facts: it’s too soon to write the epitaph for the Axis of Resistance. Axis groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis have been diminished, but retain significant local power as a decentralized network, argue @veenaa.bsky.social and @tcambanis.bsky.social in a new report. 1/3

Sunni ex-militiamen protect a Shia shrine from jihadists and regime remnants: one scene in a dispatch from Damascus shows the tenuous mix of hope and fear, opportunity and danger in Syria’s new order. By @tcambanis.bsky.social

“I am not afraid,” a former Syrian rebel commander told @tcambanis.bsky.social in Damascus. “We will build a state, and people will get their rights.”

Sectarian attacks in Syria have shaken the country. But a dispatch from @tcambanis.bsky.social reminds that the end of the Assad regime is a moral triumph—and has removed the deadliest threat, by far, to Syrians.

Sectarian violence in Syria this week exposes the structural problems of Ahmed al-Sharaa's government and the former rebel movement, and the immense political challenges they face, says @aronlund.bsky.social in a new Q&A with @abujamajem.com

Massacres of Alawites on Syria’s coast call into question whether the new regime can control its own fighters. And the violence might have irreversibly set the country on a path to more sectarian violence. @aronlund.bsky.social and @abujamajem.com in a new Q&A

Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran puts the Iraqi government in a bind: Baghdad must be careful not to antagonize America, while staying conflict-free with its neighbors - @sajadjiyad.bsky.social in a new commentary.

More than 2 decades after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq remains deeply linked to American security institutions, markets, and banks. For Trump 2.0, the Iraqi gov't will have to perform a perilous balancing act, writes @sajadjiyad.bsky.social in a new commentary

The outlook for US-Turkish relations is grim. Progressive policymakers can still salvage incremental wins, like securing the best possible settlement for the SDF in Syria. New commentary by @nicholasdanfort.bsky.social

As Trump embarks on another four years of foreign policy transactionalism, it’s hard to know what U.S.–Turkey trend will win out: a deepening authoritarian embrace with Erdogan, or more enmity grounded in opposing regional goals and cultural prejudice. New commentary by @nicholasdanfort.bsky.social

Whether Trump and Erdogan find antidemocratic common ground or devolve into confrontation, there’s little to look forward to for U.S.–Turkish relations, writes @nicholasdanfort.bsky.social in a new commentary.

Missed this morning's event on the future of Gaza? Catch the recording of @dahliasc.bsky.social and @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org‬ in conversation with Century International director @tcambanis.bsky.social

Bombed-out towns, forced SDF conscription, economic crisis: just a few of the reasons Syrian refugees in Lebanon give when explaining why they are staying put, for now. New commentary by @abujamajem.com on what’s needed to support refugees’ return.

Syria is still too unstable and economically depressed for many of the 6.2 million Syrian refugees to return—much as many would like to. The int’l community needs to invest in Syria’s peace so that its people can come home— @abujamajem.com in a new commentary.

With Assad gone, Lebanon and other countries hosting large numbers of Syrian refugees want them to go home asap. Not so fast, writes @abujamajem.com in a new commentary. Syria still needs a lot of help to be ready for a mass homecoming.

The Oslo two-state solution has failed. The one-state reality of Israeli citizens and oppressed Palestinian subjects is a travesty. Palestinians & Israelis should instead seek a confederation of two equal states with freedom and rights for all—@dahliasc.bsky.social in a new report.

Palestinians and Israelis deserve freedom of movement, work, and residency. In a new report, @dahliasc.bsky.social writes that there’s only one realistic way to a just peace: a confederation of two sovereign nations living peacefully in partnership on the same land. https://tcf.org/content/report/t…

Israel’s total segregation and oppression of Palestinians in Gaza only empowered Hamas, writes @dahliasc.bsky.social in a new report. A just peace requires a new model: two states in confederation with equal rights and freedoms for all.

The Israel-Palestine conflict needs fresh ideas that: *Extend equal rights *Cut through the fears and resentments on both sides *Honor ancestral connections to the land *Prioritize mutual needs. New report by @dahliasc.bsky.social on the confederated two-state solution.

Progressives should take no comfort in Trump's isolationism: America's public is against overseas military interventions until it isn’t, writes @nicholasdanfort.bsky.social. A new vision for progressive foreign policy is needed.

Trump’s victory has no silver lining for progressive foreign policy, writes CI fellow @nicholasdanfort.bsky.social. Progressives must get to work on a new vision.

As Trump takes office, the progressive foreign policy agenda is all but dead. A new vision is needed: active but non-militaristic, writes @nicholasdanfort.bsky.social

Syria sanctions could torpedo a historic moment, writes CI director @tcambanis.bsky.social. The Biden admin can, in its final days, lift the U.S. designation of HTS & issue licenses or waivers to aid reconstruction.

Welcome Century International @zfshuker.bsky.social to Bluesky! Follow Zeinab and all our fellows on Bluesky here: go.bsky.app/L4xSLft

It will clearly be a travesty if sanctions intended to punish Assad are imposed on the rebels who finally overthrew him, writes CI director @tcambanis.bsky.social in a new commentary. Syrians deserve a chance. tcf.org/content/comm...

@centuryintl.bsky.social colleague @tcambanis.bsky.social argues the U.S. should seize this moment and provide sanctions relief to Syria to create conditions for reconstruction and recovery – particularly given the role of U.S. and other outsiders in destroying the country: tcf.org/content/comm...

Great primer on the situation in Syria from Century International fellow Aron Lund

As Syrian rebels close in on Homs, the opposition has much to celebrate. But there are harrowing risks ahead as Assad grows more desperate. @aronlund.bsky.social & @abujamajem.com in a new roundtable:

New Syria Q&A with me and Sam! tcf.org/content/comm... @centuryintl.bsky.social @abujamajem.com

Seemingly out of the blue, Syrian rebels are barreling across the country, capturing huge swaths of territory. In a new Century roundtable, our resident Syria analysts @aronlund.bsky.social & @abujamajem.com discuss the armed opposition group leading the assault. Read: tcf.org/content/comm...

ICYMI: Century International fellow @aronlund.bsky.social 's commentary analyzing the labyrinthine political journey of Massad Boulos, who is now Trump's appointee as senior advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs.