So I guess Iran is just holding on until oil supply reaches crisis levels?

Worth reading: @haidhaid22.bsky.social for @arabreforminit.bsky.social on Syrian authorities' top-down, investment-driven approach to large-scale reconstruction/redevelopment, and resulting popular resistance: www.arab-reform.net/publication/...

If the content of the green, yellow, and red blobs on the map happens to interest you, I wrote a quickie backgrounder on Syria’s armed factions right around this time. It was published in August 2013 in the West Point counterterrorism center’s Sentinel magazine. ctc.westpoint.edu/the-non-stat...

Interesting map of Syria in March 2013. This was around the peak of the pre-internationalization civil war, right before the IS-Nusra split (April) and the Ghouta gas attack & red line affair (Aug–Sep), followed by Geneva II and then successive foreign interventions 2014–16. x.com/vivarevolt/s...

Have you considered claiming the referee was “feloul” or Hizbullah, totally baselessly You know, to enflame social tensions

Fun gym selfie for event on child exploitation

Useful @syriatransition.bsky.social update from northeast Syria's Qamishli on integration of SDF and linked institutions: www.syriaintransition.com/en/home/arch... Notes how residents, when control shifted earlier this year, suddenly found themselves governed by a very different economic model.

Important: @lemonde.fr's @helenesallon.bsky.social and Abdulmonam Eassa on how the Syrian government's liberalizing policies are piling unbearable economic pressure on ordinary Syrians: www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

103 House Democrats voted to cut off aid to Israel while 98 opposed doing so

Extremely positive that changed popular sentiment on Palestine has so restructured incentives for U.S. politicians that representatives who haven’t had some sincere pro-Palestine conversion, and likely don’t have strong convictions on the issue, think they should vote like this.

Claims that Iran is using Hizbullah as leverage on Israel/U.S. (e.g., warontherocks.com/going-over-t...) strike me as perverse, and backwards. Since March 2, Iran seems to have *expended other leverage* for Hizbullah/Lebanon, not exploited Lebanon to improve its negotiating position. 1/4

What are businesspeople considering investing in Syria supposed to make of a government carrying out extensive, extrajudicial seizures of private enterprises; and inviting investors, reportedly, to partner with the entity that controls this portfolio of expropriated assets? x.com/azelin/statu...

In seriousness, it would not surprise me if Israel and the United States are demanding the Lebanese army partially demolish these towns ("destroy or render inoperable associated infrastructure, including… tunnels, and command centers") in "pilot zones" beyond the current line of Israeli control.

Worth reading for anyone in Lebanon counting on the United States to somehow ensure Lebanese sovereignty: New York Times on Marco Rubio's neocolonial, personal control of Venezuela: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/u...

israel hamstrung by its own racism again

Malpractice that Damascus still hasn’t convened this new parliament. For investment and a host of other national priorities, Syria needs laws – a clear, stable legal regime, not this confusing mix of pre-2024 legislation and new executive decrees. x.com/heidipett/st...

SIFR paper on how Syrian government policies pricing wheat, bread and energy are impoverishing Syrian society, appealing instead for approach prioritizing social protection: thesifr.org/en/papers/de...

Seems like a politician taking AIPAC support or espousing AIPAC-approved positions is a useful litmus test because it indicates that politician either a) believes in nothing; or b) believes terrible things. x.com/dylanotes/st...

Reading Western media growing up, there was always a story about Israel’s new, most extreme political leader – Lieberman, Bennett, etc. Now Israel has produced politicians like Ben Gvir who are even more freakish. Netanyahu, of course, has just been a constant. Country seems bad!

U.S. sanctions are almost entirely politicized; the ostensible substantive basis is basically irrelevant. Good to see the Trump administration removing the SST designation from Syria, which is too fragile economically and socially to suffer continued U.S. sanctions.

Today I learned this doof is Graham Platner's stepbrother, thank you @diplomatofnight.com

Has implications for whether Iran can actually translate its leverage – which is real, and significant – into something valuable for either Iran or Lebanon.

Think I’ve been pessimistic about prospects for a U.S.-Iran deal mainly because the Trump people seem too incompetent and dumb to actually negotiate effectively and arrive at terms x.com/jonlemire/st...

"There should be a greater role for a reformed Palestinian Authority in Gaza"– even when Biden alumni attempt reflection, they think in terms of U.S./Israeli control over Palestinians. Palestinians deserve to be free. Anyone who still wants to subjugate them should go in the 🗑️ x.com/mideastXmidw...

May 2026 @wfp.org Syria Monthly Market Price Bulletin: reliefweb.int/report/syria...

Every post from Threads is like the moon is trying to communicate with me

Tlaib’s district includes Dearborn and many Lebanese-Americans who, I think, are probably not well-represented by the groups that dominate the Lebanon debate in Washington – good to have her representing her constituents in Washington, and also saying true things. x.com/elissa_hache...

Lebanese source tells @thenationalnews.com that Lebanese officials were not notified about upcoming round of Israel-Lebanon talks announced by Israel yesterday: www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...

Last week's agreement to form Lebanese-Syrian Joint High Committee, to structure continuing bilateral engagement: backend.nna-leb.gov.lb/uploads/3751... Via: www.nna-leb.gov.lb/ar/news/5500...

Think any debate on precise language of U.S.-Iran MoU is less relevant than whether Iran has the leverage/will to force the United States to conform to Iran’s clear intent – Israeli withdrawal – instead of Washington’s present bad-faith reading. x.com/noenicholas/...

Missed this at the time: Good Ammar Azzouz for @aljumhuriya.bsky.social on Homs's "Victory Boulevard" and local resistance: aljumhuriya.net/en/2026/04/0...

The question for me, on trade: Syria has demonstrated it is willing to invest in its transport infrastructure, including its border facilities. Is Lebanon capable of the same?

In al-Modon, Jamal Mheish account of Syrian foreign minister Shaibani's visit to Tripoli, including discussion of Syria-north Lebanon economic integration: www.almodon.com/politics/202...

President Aoun remarks to visiting delegations Friday make clear he is still counting on the United States to enforce Israeli cooperation: www.nna-leb.gov.lb/ar/news/5502... My piece from May on why that is ill-advised: foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/15/t...

Jonathan Hassine for @thepublicsource.bsky.social on the historical role and make-up of the Lebanese army, and what the 1983-4 crisis and that attempt to deploy the army against domestic political forces tell us about Lebanon today: thepublicsource.org/military-dis... (via @ziadaburish.bsky.social)

happy 4th of July

Elizabeth Tsurkov article for Israel Hayom – in which she says Israel should exit Lebanon but resume nationwide assassinations and force Lebanese gov't to purge pro-Hizb officials – says she conducted field research in Lebanon for her Princeton thesis: www.israelhayom.co.il/news/world-n...

June 2026 @syriatransition.bsky.social polling highlights economic hardship and gap between perceived conditions in high- and low-income areas; as well as pessimism about government performance and country's trajectory: syriaintransition.com/en/home/syri...

Important @haidhaid22.bsky.social on recent strikes at private-sector businesses outside Damascus and prospects for labor activism in new Syria: en.majalla.com/node/331707/...

@syriadirect.bsky.social's @walid-alnofal.bsky.social on how Israel – even though it isn't expelling residents of Quneitra and west Dara'a (yet) – is making life for them constricted and untenable: syriadirect.org/a-repellent-...

Missed this last month: Emirati businessman Khalaf Al Habtoor said he wasn't planning new Syria projects because he wants to avoid partnerships, after past negative experiences. x.com/KhalafAlHabt...

Haian Dukhan for @arabcenterdc.org on discontent in eastern Syria over perceived marginalization: arabcenterdc.org/resource/con...

Netanyahu says October 7 taught him that Israel must have buffer zones outside its borders, singling out Lebanon especially, and acts coy about proposals to depopulate Gaza and establish settlements there. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...

There is a rift growing between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and it threatens to destabilize an already fragile region. @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org (Michael Hanna) on what the United States should do to contain further deterioration.

Mouin Rabbani situates Lebanon trilateral framework agreement in broader context of U.S. trying to relitigate Iran MoU terms: www.newarab.com/opinion/how-...

Continued Hizbullah commitment to ceasefire agreed by U.S. and Iran likely enhances Iranian credibility and reinforces centrality of U.S.-Iran diplomatic track, but also puts Hizbullah in awkward position of holding back as Israelis again step up attacks in south Lebanon:

June 28 Netanyahu address to Israeli public on how trilateral framework secures political agreement with Lebanese government without prejudicing Israeli military presence and continued action in south Lebanon: www.gov.il/en/pages/eve...

Netanyahu remarks to Israeli troops during visit to occupied south Lebanon: www.gov.il/en/pages/eve... Credits military operations with securing Lebanese recognition of Israel, convergence against Hizbullah/Iran; vows Israel to remain in Lebanon as long as Hizb armed and present.

Seems a little 🤔 that the Syrian Sovereign Fund website professes a commitment to "transparency" but seems to include no information on fund leadership or financials: www.ssf.gov.sy