“Repositioning” Bizarre, even for him

Spoke to @afp.com about Israeli hype about capture of Beaufort Castle in south Lebanon: www.france24.com/en/live-news...

Another case of an IDF infantry veteran confirming that during the opening phase of the Gaza war, formal Rules of Engagement were not issued at all, creating a vacuum where some tactical commanders told their units to kill all “military-aged males” on sight. www.economist.com/interactive/...

I understand the Israelis are trying to exploit their latest territorial gains in Lebanon for psychological effect, but it’s not clear to me how these advances translate to much practical benefit for Israel, or lead ultimately to some Israeli victory. 1/4

Big Nada Maucourant Atallah and Nada Homsi @thenationalnews.com on Israel's systematic targeting of paramedics in south Lebanon: www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...

In call with President Aoun yesterday, Rubio blamed non-ceasefire in Lebanon on Hizbullah's refusal to unilaterally cease fire: www.state.gov/releases/off...

Important Steven Simon on how talk from Netanyahu and others about phasing out U.S. military assistance to Israel is, basically, a trick: quincyinst.org/research/the...

In which WINEP's Tabler recognizes Syria's SST designation is a drag on economic recovery badly needed to meet popular expectations, but says delisting should still be leveraged to make Damascus "address security concerns" in areas Israel now occupies 🤔: www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analy...

@reuters.com team maps Israeli evacuation orders and airstrikes across south Lebanon – above and below Litani River – since April 16 ceasefire, producing sustained displacement crisis: www.reuters.com/world/middle...

@financialtimes.com team confirms Saudi control of Iran International: www.ft.com/content/9d8d...

Netanyahu tells settlement conference that Israel will further constrict Gaza concentration camp: www.reuters.com/world/middle...

@aljumhuriya.bsky.social on protests by Syrian public employees (including nurses) excluded from newly decreed "qualitative" increase in salaries in specific state institutions and job categories: aljumhuriya.net/ar/2026/05/2...

Think I’ve been pessimistic about prospects for a U.S.-Iran deal mainly because the Trump people seem too incompetent and dumb to actually negotiate effectively and arrive at terms x.com/jonlemire/st...

Hezbollah supposedly was finished. @simaghaddar.bsky.social explains what we know about its comeback on Order from Ashes @centuryintl.bsky.social Listen here www.youtube.com/playlist?lis... open.spotify.com/show/7rJWTOp... podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/o... thecenturyfoundation.podbean.com

This is not what Qmati is saying here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol4E... Beware these weird, AI-drafted recapitulations of right-wing Lebanese talking points.

Why was a decision by the economy ministry remedied with a presidential decree? sana.sy/presidency/2...

He's forming a new government, war rages around him, America wants him to disarm renegade militias — and those militias put him in power. A glimpse at the unknown banker just put in charge of Iraq.

Haaretz talks to Israeli soldiers who narrate looting and destroying in south Lebanon, as they get increasingly damaged mentally and Hizbullah pings them with drones: www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

New U.S. sanctions part of broader effort to discipline Lebanon and turn it into a junior state, operating under U.S. and Israeli supervision: home.treasury.gov/news/press-r... On the negotiations piece of this, see my latest @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/15/t...

This is instructive in quantifying the burdens this war has created for the U.S. and its impact on preparedness. But, importantly, it also makes clear that Israel’s capacity to wage regional wars is a product of U.S. cooperation or acquiescence. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Further destruction outside the IDF's "Yellow Line" in southern Lebanon. Can see the village of Froun that sits just south of the Litani River has been heavily damaged in May 19 Sentinel-2 imagery when compared with April 29 imagery.

Destruction in southern Lebanon continues, including outside the Yellow Line. Just recently a solar-powered water well was destroyed in Deir Mimas, a Christian village north of the mostly-destroyed town of Kfar Kela. This also damaged a housing complex. News link: nna-leb.gov.lb/ar/news/5185...

“Welcome to Israel” Seems like a bad country x.com/itamarbengvi...

Iraq’s weak new prime minister faces a terrifying welcome: ongoing war, renegade militias, allies that undermine, and a fiscal cliff. @sajadjiyad.bsky.social charts Ali Zaidi’s perilous agenda on Order from Ashes @centuryintl.bsky.social

Always perplexed when people go on about New Lines, this seems basically not edited

Paul Hefel-James, “Diplomacy under fire: Where are Lebanon-Israel talks heading?” www.newarab.com/analysis/dip... Includes my thoughts.

لخّص "بي بي سي" مقالي الأخير في مجلة @foreignpolicy.comحول المفاوضات الإسرائيلية-اللبنانية التي ترعاها إدارة ترامب: www.bbc.com/arabic/artic... للمقال الكامل: foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/15/t...

By forcing Lebanon’s leaders to negotiate on Israel’s terms, it is already discrediting them—and pushing the country toward a political crisis, writes Sam Heller.

@nytimes.com’s Erika Solomon and Falih Hassan on how the U.S. exploited its security relationship with Iraq to enable Israel to occupy desert outposts and kill Iraqis: www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/w...

From Nawaf al-Musawi's May 8 interview with Jad Ghosn, I think this is Hizbullah's theory of victory, absent some U.S.-Iran negotiations deus ex machina – basically, grind out an attritional win: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ET7s...

In May 13 interview, Israeli ambassador to the U.S. previewed Israel's aims in Lebanon talks, to which Lebanese side apparently acquiesced: "Reaching a peace treaty as if there's no Hizbullah, and fighting Hizbullah as if there's no peace treaty." www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCm6...

My new @foreignpolicy.com piece on these U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks as an exercise in humiliation for the United States' would-be Lebanese partners: foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/15/t...

Yesterday State Department announces 45-day extension of Lebanon cessation of hostilities, dates for follow-on U.S.-facilitated political and security talks between Lebanon and Israel: www.state.gov/releases/off... Today Israeli military orders new mass evacuations ahead of strikes:

My latest for @foreignpolicy.com, on U.S.-sponsored Israel-Lebanon talks that mainly seem premised on embarrassing and discrediting Lebanese leaders without even offering a real ceasefire in exchange: foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/15/t...

This appears quite different from the UAE, where the strikes were not apparently linked (before, or after) to any kind of diplomatic or de-escalatory process www.wsj.com/articles/the...

The context of Saudi strikes on Iran: "Iranian and ​Western officials said Saudi Arabia made Iran aware of the strikes and this was followed by intensive diplomatic engagement and Saudi threats to retaliate further, which led to an understanding.. to de-escalate" www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

@haidhaid22.bsky.social also points to Basel al-Sweidan's many official roles as indicative of a dysfunctional governing model (L); I highlighted Sweidan in my @centuryintl.bsky.social report (R): tcf.org/content/repo...

@haidhaid22.bsky.social on Syrian government personnel reshuffle that mainly seems to have moved loyalists around: en.majalla.com/node/331020/...

@theguardian.com's @willchristou.bsky.social and @julianborger.bsky.social on Hizbullah's so far effective use of fiber-optic FPV drones against Israeli forces: www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

America started a war it couldn’t win. How does the world look without a dominant superpower? @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social previews our new era of asymmetric finance, trade, and warfare on Order from Ashes @centuryintl.bsky.social

For @warontherocks.bsky.social, @sajjadsafaei.bsky.social challenges "proxy" characterization of Hizbullah, elaborates on Hizbullah and Iran interests underpinning alliance: warontherocks.com/why-lebanon-...

Mujtaba al-Husseini for al-Akhbar on the legal basis for Lebanon's continuing state of war with Israel and the impermissibility of revoking it by presidential/executive fiat: www.al-akhbar.com/NewspaperArt...

@syriadirect.bsky.social's @natachadanon.bsky.social and Hadi al-Ali on trial of Atef Najib without solid legal basis: syriadirect.org/atef-najib-t...

Ya, obviously don't take U.S. officials at face value when they say Khamenei is absent, or Iran's leaders are hopelessly divided; duh, they're trying to neg Iran, or explain away their own incoherence and dysfunction.

Wladimir van Wilgenburg for the Kurdish Center for Studies, "U.S. Envoy Caught Up in Israeli-Turkish Tensions" nlka.net/eng/u-s-envo... Includes my thoughts.

The WSJ leak is absolutely horrific but a particularly awful aspect of it is that it has validated EVERY SINGLE CONCERN by the pro-Iran camp in Iraq. All that "crazy fearmongering" about "Israel invading Iraq" about which we have been continuously hearing from them..... Yeah surprise!

Hizbullah missile attack on military target south of Nahariya Friday – framed as retaliation for Israel bombing Dahiyeh two days previous – seems like Hizbullah communicating how it will calibrate its targeting to match Israeli strikes:

It’s not just Gaza, though that’s enough. It’s how Biden team basically adopted Trump’s entire Middle East policy - embrace Abraham Accords and try to get Saudi in, ignore human rights and democracy, no return to JCPOA - and now pretend to be an alternative. Why in the world let them do it again?

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Israelis set up a *secret military base* on Iraqi soil prior to the war against Iran, with the collaboration of the United States, and then they fired on Iraqi soldiers who almost discovered it.

Israeli forces set up a clandestine base in Iraq in support of strikes in Iran: www.wsj.com/world/middle...