Trump has already lost his war but wants to appear a winner, expecting Iran to play along. It won't. Iran is losing more, but that's not Trump victory. He expected a quick, costless war, with regime collapse or surrender; that's not on offer. Don’t fall for a reality-TV version of ‘negotiations.’

War isn't over yet, but for now it's true that Iran, which has been under sanctions for decades, was known to have ineffective air force, and is using weapons it built on its own, has so far prevented two nuclear powers from achieving their goals, even as it has paid heavy price.

'Among academics who study the Middle East, opposition to war with Iran was overwhelming. Only 5% of academic experts polled in the days leading up to the US-Israeli attacks supported launching a war and only 1% thought that a broad assault would produce a pro-American democratic regime in Iran'

"On the Iran War, a Deep Disconnect Between Experts and Policymakers - Few Mideast scholars saw regime change or democracy as possible outcomes." My latest with @abuaardvark.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/25/i...

Even Israeli officials who wanted Iranians to protest said privately they would be "slaughtered." Certainly, Netanyahu doesn't have power to get Iranians to the streets, so what's behind leak? It's likely part of the emerging blame game: 'If it weren't for Trump stopping it...'

"Iran’s missiles pierce Israel’s defenses, raising doubts about interceptors" www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

War isn't over yet, but for now it's true that Iran, which has been under sanctions for decades, was known to have ineffective air force, and is using weapons it built on its own, has so far prevented two nuclear powers from achieving their goals, even as it has paid heavy price.

Outrageous

"American Jews Won't Be Silenced. We Have Every Right to Oppose the Iran War" www.haaretz.com/opinion/2026...

Press TV publishes what it says are Iran's 5 demands to end the war: end of "aggression and assassinations"; mechanisms to ensure war is not "reimposed"; Reparations; end of war with all "resistance groups"; and acceptance of Iran's "right" to exercise sovereignty over Hormuz.

Sobering - even more so given reports that Trump is receiving distorted, rosy briefings about the war.

As many have suspected, Trump lives in dangerous bubble: The video briefing of the war Trump receives "is fueling concerns among some of Trump’s allies that he may not be receiving — or absorbing — the complete picture of the war, now in its fourth week." www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...

"2028 Dem hopefuls scramble for distance from AIPAC" politi.co/4tpHna3 via @politico

Trump has already lost his war but wants to appear a winner, expecting Iran to play along. It won't. Iran is losing more, but that's not Trump victory. He expected a quick, costless war, with regime collapse or surrender; that's not on offer. Don’t fall for a reality-TV version of ‘negotiations.’

Headline in Israel's Maariv newspaper:

With national and international attention going mostly to war on Iran, it's easy to miss the horror in Lebanon and continuing horror in Gaza and the West Bank. Senator @vanhollen.senate.gov is not looking away.

Iran's response: “Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves? Our first and last word has been the same from day one, and it will stay that way: Someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you.” apnews.com/article/iran...

You must be in Florida

"Dozens of former Israeli military, police and spy chiefs describe situation as ‘organised Jewish terrorism’"

Democrats on Tuesday flipped a Florida legislative district that includes President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, pulling off another upset in a state house election but this time one with obvious symbolic power. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/u...

Peace is around the corner:

Doubt this. To be sure, BEFORE war Iran pledged no nukes. Now, it has to reassess, as fatwa against nukes died with Ali Khamenei. Would Iran decide on this big issue even before it enters formal talks? Would it rely on Trump's word to prevent future attacks or would it now consider having nukes?

Trump's approval hits new 36% low as fuel prices surge amid Iran war, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

Wow! VW to shift from cars to missile defence in deal with Israel’s Iron Dome maker www.ft.com/content/1e41... via @ft

Nature break: Blooming Lenten Roses

QatarEnergy declares force majeure on some LNG contracts due to Iran war. Force majeure allows a party to be excused from its obligations due to unforeseeable events. Petroleum companies in Kuwait and Bahrain have also recently invoked force majeure. aje.news/kkq5le

Who can blame him? www.nytimes.com/2026/03/23/w...

Wow: German president slams Trump adm, saying that Germany doesn't need to follow along and that even with new US adm, the trans-Atlantic relationship is irrevocably changed: "The rupture and the lost trust in American great power politics runs too deep" www.yahoo.com/news/article...

The US-Israeli war on Iran has placed KSA and other Gulf states in a costly, painful bind, but I don't see how extending and expanding a war that Iran already sees as existential would not lead to greater devastation of Iran's neighbors sooner. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/u...

Sharpest attack yet: Germany's President Steinmeier and its foreign minister condemn the US and Israel's attacks on Iran, with Steinmeier calling the war a "politically fateful mistake" that constituted a "breach of international law." www.dw.com/en/germany-l...

Puzzling, if true. Gulf states certainly have right to respond to Iran's attacks on them. But militarily, they won't add a great deal to what the US and Israel are able to do and are doing, while opening themselves to far more damaging Iranian attacks. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

I take such reports with a grain of salt until they come directly from Iranian officials.

"Hormuz fertiliser block will upend world’s food production. Any ceasefire negotiations must include a humanitarian carve-out for such shipments." www.ft.com/content/c139... via @ft

Exclusive: Amazon says Amazon Web Services's Bahrain region 'disrupted' following drone activity. Iran had threatened such American companies. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Nine days after the killing of members of Bani Odeh Palestinian family in WB, none of the Israeli officers who took part in the heavy gunfire at the vehicle – carrying four young children, one of them blind, and their parents – have been summoned for questioning. www.haaretz.com/opinion/edit...

Glad Trump backed down saving world further disaster of his own making. But I doubt the moment allows for real agreement as Trump seeks a 'win' that limits economic cost, which would look like Iran's defeat; also, Iran can't possibly trust his word now based on previous talks.

"Netanyahu is gambling with Israel’s future: Perpetual war and fading American popular support is a formula for disaster" www.ft.com/content/4e35...

I am always astonished by the degree to which the words of a man known to manufacture 'facts' at will, sometimes contradicting himself within minutes, can have such extraordinary impact on markets. cnb.cx/4cZg29B

Now I know it’s spring!

Just to be clear, Iran denies there are ongoing negotiations.

Trump is not blaming this "stupid war" on anyone, let alone Israel, because he always pretends succeeding, so what's the point here? That analysts shouldn't be free to blame Israel, even as they also blame Trump?

No one likes bait and switch

Sometimes, blinking is a good thing.

With world distracted by the wars in Iran and Lebanon: Israeli Settlers Prepare for a Large-scale West Bank Rampage as Palestinians Report Attacks and Arson www.haaretz.com/west-bank/20...

It turns out that the goal of the war now is to return Hormuz to the same state it was in before the devastating war was initiated by Israel and the US. Brilliant. washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

As suspected, Trump ignored the skepticism of US intelligence about the prospects of regime change in Iran and went with the assessments provided by Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/u...

I take all such reports with a grain of salt, but here is this for what it's worth:

Iranian parliament speaker threatens investments in US Treasury Bonds:

As Europe and the rest of the world watch in horror how Trump allowed himself to be duped into this disaster, they will not fall for this.

Don't look away from this intensifying calamity: