Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer than ever to finally resolving their decades-old conflict. But there are still significant obstacles which remain and that risk scuttling the process. Our new @crisisgroup.org briefing lays it out: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

A month ago, Trump hosted Aliyev & Pashinyan in Washington with much pomp. But the deal between Armenia & Azerbaijan, negotiated bilaterally months before, remains unsigned. Our new @crisisgroup.org briefing explores the roadblocks to peace & how to overcome them. @joshuakucera.bsky.social

Some further reflections on yesterday’s White House summit between President Aliyev, PM Pashinyan and President Trump. It was by all accounts an extraordinary day, whose time-honoured optics and symbolism could seduce all but the most hardened observers of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process.

Having watched the ceremony and read the text that they signed, a few additional thoughts. tl;dr: it was a positive event, but a lot of pitfalls lie ahead.

Later today Donald Trump is meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Trump promises that it will be an “official Peace Signing Ceremony.” Will it be? A background thread.

Amid the crisis between Moscow and Baku, Russia remains useful for Azerbaijan: Baku appreciates Moscow’s efforts to weaken efforts from the U.S. and Europe to (as they see it) use democracy to advance their interests, I tell BBC Russian: www.bbc.com/russian/arti...

“The nightmare scenario here [in the South Caucasus] is that Iran suffers serious internal instability or collapse of the state.” @joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu (13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...

I spoke with the EU Parliament committees on the Caucasus to discuss the effect that the Iran-Israel war had (and could have again) on Armenia and Azerbaijan. (My part starts at 13:11:16.) multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...

Azerbaijan and Turkey, very close allies, are in a rare public dispute after Turkey and Armenia agreed to temporarily open their border for Armenian humanitarian aid shipments to Syria.

My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Trump’s national security adviser has weighed in following last week’s news that Armenia and Azerbaijan have finalized the text of their peace agreement:

Armenia and Azerbaijan have come to an agreement on the final two points of their peace agreement, Azerbaijan announced and Armenia confirmed. This COULD bring their three-plus-decade conflict to an end, but there is an even bigger obstacle still in the way, no celebrating just yet. t.co/rkWB5F489J

The first round of Abkhazia’s elections for a de facto president took place on Saturday. The establishment candidate, Badra Gunba, took 46 percent of the vote. The main opposition candidate, Adgur Ardzinba, took 37 percent. The two now head for a runoff on March 1. oc-media.org/abkhazias-pr...

"In reality, deploying NGOs for explicitly political action has long been viewed as the pinnacle of foreign grant-making — the most exalted discipline for the most eminent players, yielding the biggest bang for their buck." jacobin.com/2025/02/west...

The EU has agreed to extend the mandate of its border monitoring mission in Armenia for another two years: www.azatutyun.am/a/33295601.h... The current mandate, also two years, was scheduled to expire next month.

Russia and Iran have agreed to finally start construction on a critical railroad, the Rasht-Astara line in northern Iran. This is the final link in a rail corridor that will eventually (in theory) stretch from St Petersburg to the Persian Gulf - via Azerbaijan. www.railfreight.com/beltandroad/...

The current state of MAGA-Georgia relations, in three tweets. No I don't understand it either.

Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service this week published its first-ever report on “external security risks” to Armenia, somewhat in the vein of the CIA’s “annual threat assessment.” It’s an interesting read, in particular with respect to Azerbaijan and Russia. armenpress.am/storage/cont...

NEW Q&A | Understanding the Israel-Hamas Truce A deal has been reached to halt the war in Gaza and secure the release of Israelis held captive. @crisisgroup.org experts break down the terms of the ceasefire agreement and its prospects for success. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Armenia and the U.S. will sign a Strategic Partnership agreement today. There's less than a week left in the Biden administration, and it’s the second inheritance in the Caucasus that the current WH is, in its waning days, bequeathing the incoming Trump administration. armenpress.am/en/article/1...

Dug up this story that I wrote for @slate.bsky.social after a trip to Greenland ... in 2008. slate.com/news-and-pol...

Absolutely thrilled to announce that @joshuakucera.bsky.social has joined @crisisgroup.org as our new Senior South Caucasus Analyst! Welcome, Josh! Really looking forward to working with you!

On the new @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, Elissa Jobson & I welcome back @joshuakucera.bsky.social to talk Georgia. We unpack Georgian Dream's popularity & election fraud accusations against it, future EU roles, & whether Abkhazia unrest is driven by local, regional, or geopolitical factors.

The “choose peace” message may have resonated with voters. “We want Europe,” said Levan Kobaladze, a 60-something doctor, as he left a polling station on Tbilisi’s central avenue. “But Western countries, America, they just want to make you do what they want.” www.economist.com/europe/2024/...

The caution from the west disappointed many Georgian opposition leaders and their supporters, who look to the United States and Europe for backing. www.rferl.org/a/georgian-e...

Georgia is having elections this weekend. My take: "Like going bankrupt, the collapse in relations between Georgia and the West happened gradually, then suddenly. And there’s no assurance they can be restored."

A new ad campaign from Georgian Dream juxtaposes black-and-white images of war-torn Ukraine with color images of prospering, peaceful Georgia ... The campaign has shocked many Georgians who feel that it blames Ukrainians for getting invaded. www.rferl.org/a/georgia-el...

The harsh response by the United States has highlighted a blunt truth: that without a democratic government and a fully pro-Western foreign policy orientation, Washington has little reason to invest in Georgia. www.rferl.org/a/georgian-e...

"They are talking about Europe vs. Russia and the locals in, for example, Marneuli or in Svaneti, they simply don't care that much. It's important, and [rural Georgians] know this, but on a day-to-day basis when they wake up, they care mostly about, for example, the prices of their products."

Many Georgian NGOs are publicly defying the country’s controversial new “foreign agent” law.  www.rferl.org/a/georgia-ng...

Armenia's constitution still contains references to "reunification" with Nagorno-Karabakh. Is that going to scuttle the fragile peace talks with Azerbaijan? www.rferl.org/a/armenia-co...

"I think it will affect the vote very significantly," said one opposition leader, of the U.S. and EU's harsher line against the ruling Georgian Dream party. www.rferl.org/a/georgian-u...

Nice to have the chance to have a long(er than usual, anyway) discussion of what is going on in Georgia for this podcast. www.wilsoncenter.org/audio/georgi...

Now, with Israel facing greater international isolation as a result of its war in Gaza, Yerevan saw the opportunity to strike a retaliatory blow. www.rferl.org/a/armenia-re...

With a large protest movement loudly demanding his resignation amid high-stakes negotiations continuing with Azerbaijan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has a lot on his plate these days. But what better way to clear your head than a bike ride on a sunny summer morning?

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian built his political identity on peaceful protests and resistance to police violence. Now, six years after taking power, he has presided over his own violent crackdown on anti-government protests www.rferl.org/a/32991417.h...

Analysts in both Moscow and Tbilisi believe the Georgian Dream party's geopolitical signaling is intended, above all, for domestic consumption ahead of Georgia's critical elections this fall. www.rferl.org/a/russia-geo...

Bagrat Galstanian: The Armenian Archbishop Taking On The Government www.rferl.org/a/32962414.h...

With millions of Georgians at once in thrall to both soccer mania and a political crisis over democratic values and geopolitical identity, aspirations of joining Europe -- the soccer big time and within the European Union -- are increasingly intertwined. www.rferl.org/a/32932284.h...

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has set off a chain reaction of geopolitical consequences. One of them is an emboldened Azerbaijan. www.rferl.org/a/32917647.h...

Most Georgians thought that the "foreign agent" drama was behind them after Georgian Dream's humiliating setback last year.

“What a cruel world. May they rest in peace and may their kid grow up knowing that his mom and dad’s love defied cultural boundaries to create him." www.rferl.org/a/armenia-az...

At the eye of this geopolitical storm, Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Gyumri -- the weightiest element of the two countries’ security partnership -- appears as firmly rooted as ever.

Ararat, Pashinian said in one speech, represents no less than the "duality that exists in each of us: historical Armenia and real Armenia." The question for Armenians now, he said, is: "Should the real Armenia serve the historical Armenia or should the historical Armenia serve the real Armenia?"

"The [Armenian] government needs to give some positive news to society," one analyst said, "to show that, 'OK, we know we lost Nagorno-Karabakh, but we are receiving something in return."

Analysis: Aliyev's Victory Lap Election

I was on Times Radio today talking about the Azerbaijani elections, the segment starts at 1:45:45. (The show's tagline is "Politics without the boring bits," and I'm not sure this election qualifies.) www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/show/2...

Seems that is the way things are going.