Happy Tuesday. I'm still thinking about air incursions. You, too? As I wrote nearly two weeks ago, there are some advantages to occasionally shooting down the odd unauthorized aircraft in one's sky. However, it's a bad idea to have a policy of always shooting everything down. A 🧵 1/6

Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7

After the Anchorage and Washington mtgs: regardless of the odds of bringing about a durable peace between Russia and Ukraine, negotiators will have a better shot if they are guided by the following five realities as they consider how to approach additional talks. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

My @crisisgroup.org colleagues on why the diplomacy aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine must meet a higher bar & how it can be achieved: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Can't say I'm surprised by discussion of an "air truce" proposal for Russia-Ukraine apparently coming from US-Ru talks. Also can't say I'm optimistic about it. I am curious if it would also ban drone strikes near the front lines, or if it's meant to just isolate the fighting to those front lines.

All the latest on #Ukraine's response to Russia’s offensive, its biggest challenges, the shifting US role, & the most realistic scenarios for autumn. From my colleague @luciankim.bsky.social who just came back from the country: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Our Global Tracker is out ⬇️ Crucial feature this month: 🕊️conflict resolution opportunity following a peace agreement between Kinshasa & Kigali. Can it help quell hostilities in eastern DR Congo or will Kigali’s conditions for its withdrawal pose obstacles? www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch?...

“The nightmare scenario here [in the South Caucasus] is that Iran suffers serious internal instability or collapse of the state.” @joshuakucera.bsky.social on the regional implications of Israel and US strikes on Iran @europarl.europa.eu (13:11:16): multimedia.europarl.europa.eu/en/webstream...

“The move from lofty pledges to hard thinking about real threats, available resources and critical capability gaps still awaits”. Marta Mucznik assesses the significant gaps left by the #NATOSummit. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

What's left unsaid after #NATO Summit? My @crisisgroup.org colleague's analysis: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

NATO gathers: as U.S. recalibrates its role & Russia presses Ukraine, a certain amount of improvisation seems destined to be part of Europe’s security architecture, both when it comes to war in Ukraine & when it comes to other future challenges. www.crisisgroup.org/global-usrus... @crisisgroup.org

Ahead of #Armenia PM Pashinyan’s historic visit to #Turkey starting today, my colleague @dibanigar.bsky.social explores how to build momentum for peace between the neighbours, and what most affects the normalisation of Ankara-Yerevan ties: www.sessizolmaz.org/blog-88-dyna...

With Washington signalling a drawdown in Ukraine aid, pressure is mounting to seize Russia’s sovereign assets. Legal and economic hurdles make it hard to confiscate the funds. @crisisgroup.org explains how the money could be leveraged in talks to end the war: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

🧵1 /4 The chance to end Türkiye’s 40-year conflict with the PKK is real, especially after the group’s May announcement to disband. But the process remains fraught, and clashes persist. Our latest updates and further analysis here: www.crisisgroup.org/content/turk...

1/4 🧵 #Ukraine drone attack: my @crisisgroup.org colleague examines the impact and timing of Operation Spiderweb: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

“We’re probably looking at a return to Istanbul.” @luciankim.bsky.social discusses prospects for renewed 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 peace talks, chances of progress, & what the apparent U.S. pullback means for Moscow, Kyiv, & its European backers. Your @crisisgroup.org podcast: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

What’s behind #US proposed deal & the European and #Ukraine counter-proposal? What’s problematic? What is smart? And do how do prospects for ceasefire look at this stage? Your weekend 🎧 from @crisisgroup.org www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

In Paris next Wednesday? Come listen as we ponder, explicate, and speculate!

#Armenia, #Azerbaijan and #Georgia foreign ministers almost never discuss South Caucasus security challenges publicly together. Watch this unique conversation with questions from my brilliant colleague @dibanigar.bsky.social at #ADF www.youtube.com/live/xP1NWKb...

As the latest news from Riyadh emerges, both #Ukraine and #Russia agreed to stop military strikes in the Black Sea (per 🇺🇸). The US-Russia talks also touched upon commercial shipping & potentially restoring the 2022 grain deal. @crisisgroup.org analysis of it: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Not only is Ankara a crucial piece of the European security puzzle, Türkiye may also be on the verge of a peace process after decades of conflict with the PKK. Read the new @crisisgroup.org Q&A to learn what's happening, why, & what might be next

1/3 "Positive news" is the latest we hear from the White House about #US #Ukraine talks in SA. 🧵 @crisisgroup.org argues that there are several items where consensus between the US, Europe and Kyiv seems possible and that could lay the groundwork for a sustainable peace in Ukraine.

What makes the latest attempt to end decades-long conflict between Ankara and PKK a golden opportunity, and how the peace process may unfold. New @crisisgroup.org Q+A: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

New @crisisgroup.org statement argues that Kyiv & its European backers have no viable choice but to stop pushing for security guarantees from the US. Instead, they should seek what consensus is possible on another path to assure Ukraine’s security. More: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

"They are not peacekeepers as such; they are a deterrent". @olyaoliker.bsky.social explains what stands behind the European proposal to send troops to Ukraine. 🎧Listen to @crisisgroup.org podcast. Timecode 14'07: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

In a historic move, jailed PKK leader Ocalan called his group to lay down arms and dissolve itself. We’ve been tracking the dynamics of Ankara’s conflict with PKK since 2015 and have all the verified data on casualties in @crisisgroup.org Visual Explainer: www.crisisgroup.org/content/turk...

On the new @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast, Elissa Jobson & I talk to Berkay Mandiraci about what Assad's collapse, new efforts to resolve the conflict with the PKK, & a rapidly changing European security order mean for Türkiye. Listen in!

Jailed PKK leader Ocalan called the group to lay down arms and dissolve itself. This move could start the process of ending a 40-year long conflict with Türkiye. We explore why experts are cautiously optimistic this time in @crisisgroup.org podcast: www.crisisgroup.org/ar/node/25451

“The stars are better aligned at this point in time”. There's a cautious optimism about the chances of ending the PKK conflict with Ankara this time. We unpack why in the latest @crisisgroup.org podcast (23:30) www.crisisgroup.org/ar/node/25451

Now from me @crisisgroup.org: What the hell just happened at the UN? www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Relations between the U.S. and European countries are in very public disarray, as the votes in the #UN General Assembly on #Ukraine revealed. @richardgowan1.bsky.social explains why this vote may signal more UN troubles on Ukraine and beyond ahead: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

@olyaoliker.bsky.social on what the most plausible future for #Ukraine and #Europe three years after the full-scale invasion is, how to get there, and what the latest steps taken by the #US administration mean: youtu.be/1lrHZXVKUQw

President Trump's call for elections echoes Kremlin narrative that President Zelenskyy is an illegitimate leader who's overstayed his time in office. Yet there's consensus even among Zelenskyy’s opponents that the law is clear: votes can't be held under martial law.

Zelenskyy’s response to Trump’s assertion that Ukraine is to blame for starting Russia’s war of aggression: “I would like to have more truth with the Trump team.” They are “living in a disinformation space” or maybe in a “circle of disinformation”! www.nytimes.com/2025/02/19/w...

If there are real talks, Russia won't want European peacekeepers, so that's something to put on the table & talk about. But this is all it is at present. & again, hard to see how Moscow and DC negotiate that on behalf of everyone else. 2/2

Red herring alert!! They're talking about sending troops after a cease-fire. There is now no cease-fire, & there are no plans to negotiate a cease-fire. US and Russia plan talks about ending the war. That may or may not include cease-fire, but they can't negotiate one without Ukraine anyway. 1/2

We wrote all this out and published it. Please read. I'm going to go have a Saturday. 14/14

Again, for those in the back--an end to the Russo-Ukraine war does not solve Europe's security problem. A sustainable end, with Russia deterred and constrained, is the safer option. An unsustainable end, with Russia emboldened, is the least safe. But there's no return to the status quo ante. 13/14

That is to say, an end to shooting in Ukraine, on anyone's terms, does not let the transatlantic Europeans off the hook of thinking about their own security & spending money on it. Ideally, the US will help. But Moscow's gonna Moscow, Trump's gonna Trump, & Europeans gotta prepare for both. 12/14

The options are build up & try to temper the dangers of deterrence with a bit of agreed restraint, or surrender to your adversary & hope for the best. 11/14

Moscow is not going to be reassured whatever happens in Ukraine (see hundreds of years of history, its own and others'). The other countries on the continent are also not going to feel safe from Russia (see same). 10/14

Further, as folks define their positions I'd like to introduce another awkward reality to keep in mind: While a deal that gives Russia Ukraine makes Europe least stable, even a sustainable deal still sets the stage for an unstable deterrence-based Europe. 9/14

If it's going to negotiate on behalf of Kyiv & its own allies, its best chance of success is through agreed positions in advance & throughout, rather than if it's going to have to try to strongarm them later. That seems a recipe for a deal that can't be implemented (been there, done that?) 8/14

If the US is talking to Russia, it's best off going in taking nothing off the table & aiming for a future in which Ukraine can deter Russia with its own forces, continued help from backers, & whatever security guarantees its backers are willing to give. Anything short of that is defeat. 7/14

What of Euro peacekeepers post cease-fire as a back-door security guarantee/tripwire for Kyiv? Well, even leaving aside numbers (inadequate) & the likelihood of guarantees absent US backing (super low), two big problems render this moot: 1) what cease-fire? (see above) 2) Moscow's opposed. 6/14

The US could try to pressure Ukraine into cease-fire by threatening to stop aid, but Kyiv still has weapons, and it has other backers. Everyone would need to be on board. Maybe the US can deliver them all with sticks & carrots. Moscow thinks it can. I have my doubts. 5/14

That doesn't mean talks can't result in a cease-fire deal. It means that a cease-fire deal isn't Russia's aim. A cease-fire mightn't be a bad thing (depending on terms) BUT, the US can't negotiate it on behalf of Ukraine, which would need to do the actual ceasing to fire (as would Russia). 4/14

Russia has said all along that it doesn't want a cease-fire, it wants a full settlement. We have no reason to think that Russia's overall aims have changed in any way. Reminder: its aims aren't about territory, but about Ukraine as a vassal state (of Russia) & a new European security order. 3/14

First, Trump and Putin, we're told, talked for an hour & a half and what I've seen of a readout indicates they agreed to meet & also move towards settlement wrt Ukraine. Some folks take that to mean that they've agreed to negotiate a cease-fire. I don't think they've done that. 2/14

Much talk these days about Ukraine cease-fire, what sorts of deals Trump can make with Putin over everyone's heads, what is & isn't on the table, including peacekeepers, & what Ukraine's European backers should do. A lot of this talk seems a bit muddled? Lotta carts before horses? Hence, a 🧵 1/14