@dexeve.bsky.social and I wrote this piece a while ago for @bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?

The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus marks Moscow’s effort to adapt its deterrence posture to a shifting geopolitical landscape by evolving its escalation management strategy, analyze @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & Paul Schwartz @cna.org 6/10

In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/? www.cna.org/analyses/202...

In this new @CNA_org report, I analyze how authoritative figures in the Russian mil view threats in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The key insight: Traditional Russian threat perceptions haven't shifted — they've been sharpened. 1/? www.cna.org/analyses/202...

In this report, my colleagues, @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social, Paul Schwartz, and I argue that despite its technical-tactical innovation in its war against Ukr, Russia still approaches a potential war w/ NATO with the same operational assumptions it had before 2022. 1/? www.cna.org/analyses/202...

Come visit us at AMSUS.

If you're at ISA 2025 tomorrow, my partner in crime, @alxgraef from @ifshhamburg.bsky.social will be presenting a rough draft of our paper at a panel from 1:45pm-3:30pm titled "The Karaganov Debate: Experts, the Public Sphere and Nuclear Policymaking in Russia." Go check it out.

Sergey Rogov dedicated a good bit of his life to trying to advance, and more lately save, prospects for arms control, even as his health declined. Always intelligent, often infuriating, and never unwilling to talk. I agree with Andrey--this is a big loss.

Glad to have contribute to this and to have had the opportunity to collaborate with my amazing mentor, @olyaoliker.bsky.social. Interested in European security and what happens next? Read here: www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

Hot off the press. We had to wait a while to get this out but check out the great work of my colleagues: www.cna.org/reports/2025...

Last week, my colleague @sambendett.bsky.social, @exit266.bsky.social, and I took to twitter spaces to discuss Russian military medicine in Ukraine along with UGV/UAV developments. Listen to our discussion here: x.com/sambendett/s...

A good day to reiterate our work on Russian domestic debates about the credibility of nuclear threats and potential nuclear employment. See our work here if you want to read about how the events that took place today are part of an ongoing conversation since early 2022: www.cna.org/reports/2024...

On the evolution of Russian military medicine since 2022, by @gabrielairosa.bsky.social for CNA. Really informative. Check it out.

Little is available in English about the experience of Russia’s military health system since Feb 2022. Our review found several challenges affecting its ability to care for the wounded in Ukraine. 1/? Read the latest by the CNA Russia Studies Program here: www.cna.org/reports/2024...

Hi Folks: Firing up this account for the first time to note that today marks one year since the Russian government detained my colleague Evan Gershkovic in an act of supreme cynicism and cowardice. WSJ’s response is this stunning front page. #FreeEvan

My colleague ⁦@alxgraef and I make sense of what has transpired in the past month at the OSCE and discuss the CFE Treaty’s demise and its implications: www.justsecurity.org/90612/the-cf...

La baby.

Allegedly, Belarus will continue to implement the Treaty with other state parties. But this sets up the scene for an interesting meeting of states-parties taking place in November. Poland announced earlier that it would cease implementation of the Treaty in relation to the Republic of Belarus.

Belarus suspends CFE cooperation with Czechia and Poland. Apparently, Belarus communicated that it would not send the CFE information and notifications and would not host verification inspections via the OSCE communications network. belta.by/politics/vie...

My colleague, @alxgraef, and I make an unpopular argument. In our piece, we argue that ditching the CFE Treaty may not contribute to all that much to the security of NATO members at the moment. Check it out below: fpri.org/article/2023/0… via @fpri.bsky.social