I can't imagine why Germany would want to use its increased defense spending to invest in European defense firms.

Just now, I spoke on behalf of the Benelux at the UN Security Council to make crystal clear that violations of European airspace by Russia are unacceptable. We stand in solidarity with Estonia, Poland, Romania, and our partners in upholding sovereignty and international law. 1/2

@gideonrachman.bsky.social confirming our fears about the way Trump officials see NATO allies. on.ft.com/4niOyhx

Better late than never but much better would have been a firm statement from Trump after Russia's violation of Poland's airspace, which most likely would have made the subsequent violations less likely. www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

It cannot be that Russia “accidently” violates three times in two weeks European air space. Russia is testing European borders and probing our resolve. It will continue to provoke as long as we allow it. Extract of my statement at the UN Security Council ↓

ICYMI, Golden Dome looking a bit pricey arstechnica.com/space/2025/0...

Poland leading the way: www.reuters.com/world/poland...

More evidence that Trump doesn't care about China's military threat to East Asia and is not interested in competing against China in broader geopolitical terms. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Give a listen to the most recent episode of Net Assessment @zackcooper.bsky.social Melanie Marlowe and Chris Preble all seem to agree with the basic premise of my forthcoming book that NATO allies have different threat perceptions and that those differences matter. www.stimson.org/2025/is-a-fi...

I don't find Robert Kagan's recent polemic on NATO very convincing. It mostly focuses on Biden's reluctance to escalate in aiding Ukraine and implies that it has led to Trump's reluctance to back Poland--which it most certainly did not. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

moscow continues to make escalatory probes before being kicked out of estonia’s airspace. don’t make the mistake of failing to imagine what could come next.

Estonia invokes Article 4 to call consultations among NATO allies after three Russian jets violated its airspace. The same movement as Poland last week.

Here we go! www.politico.eu/article/russ...

Forever Wars? "The broadly worded proposal, which would grant sprawling authority to Mr. Trump for five years to use American military force in a drug trafficking war, has set off alarm bells in some quarters of the executive branch and on Capitol Hill." www.nytimes.com/2025/09/19/u...

One major barrier to European defense autonomy: governments who put their defense manufacturers' interests ahead of what is best for Europe's security. www.politico.eu/article/germ...

According to @foreignpolicy.com's Situation Report it looks like the world has a new alliance. Of course, it's not official until @lanoszka.bsky.social confirms it ;)

A very useful discussion on European security in the wake of Russia's drone incursions in Poland on the most recent episode of School of War: nebulouspodcasts.com/shows/school...

This is exactly what NATO allies bordering Russia should be doing to effectively and efficiently counter the drone threat. on.ft.com/46uhN9W

Expect more Russian incursions into NATO airspace until Trump clearly condemns them (v. saying they could be a "mistake") and makes clear the US commitment to defend any attacked ally. on.ft.com/4plg2nU

Yet another instance where US defense manufacturers are paying the price for Trump's mistreatment of NATO allies.

Some of the best analysis I've consumed on the Russian drone incursion into Poland and what NATO and the US should do about it. 👏 to @jteurope.bsky.social & Andrea Kendall Taylor. I 100% agree with Kurt Volker that an expanded air defense zone is a must. www.podbean.com/ep/pb-verja-...

“This government is adrift – bobbing like a tiny cork on waves it does not have the courage to battle…But even Thatcher and Blair would be struggling right now. The mix of global issues, economic disaster zone, public services crisis and immigration is a truly horrendous cocktail.”

@iancjohnston.bsky.social with a rare discussion of the defense spending consequences of France’s current political and economic crisis. on.ft.com/4gpzjAE

The United States sure looks like it’s signaling to Europe and Russia that it won’t honor NATO mutual defense commitments. Maybe they understand that, or maybe it’s driven by personal pique, instinctual opposition to democracies, and underlying Putin sympathy. But the impact is the same either way.

⚡️Updated: Poland, Ukraine to train downing drones on Polish territory, Warsaw says. The Polish Defense Ministry clarified on Sept. 12 that Ukrainian and Polish specialists will practice the use of drones and anti-drone systems only on Polish territory.

Yesterday, Trump confirmed European NATO allies' worst fears and gave a green light to Russia for future incursions (which could very easily turn into a full-scale attack). Poland and other allies have to assume they are on their own.

Turns out, threatening allies is bad for business. www.politico.eu/article/denm...

What should NATO be doing to address the Russian drone threat in a layered, economically efficient way: electronic warfare, counter drones, and lasers. www.politico.eu/article/russ...

If Putin was probing the US commitment to NATO, he will be encouraged by the underwhelming support from Trump for Poland thus far.

"But of course, whether it was intentionally or not, it is absolutely reckless." www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

No doubt Hegseth has leaned on #SACEUR Grynkewich to water down any prospect of blaming Russia for its intentional exploratory drone attack on #NATO member #Poland yesterday in order to conform to Trump's wishes to reopen trade with Russia and carve up Ukraine.

Some have scoffed at the invocation of NATO's Article 4 in response to Russia's use of drones to violate Poland's airspace. NATO precedent is to let threatened allies decide which article of the treaty to invoke and Poland chose Art. 4.

On the question of why only four drones were shot down:

Not exactly the affirmation of the US commitment to NATO allies that the alliance needs at this moment.

The idea that joining NATO would make Ukraine an intolerable threat to Russia is absurd and Poland is demonstrating why: they were just hit by Russian munitions and yet because NATO makes them feel secure they are comfortable literally just calling a meeting rather than a kinetic response

1/ Poland has invoked NATO's Article Four, which triggers consultations among allies. It is highly unlikely this will be taken as an "armed attack" meeting the threshold of Article Five. So the question is what NATO does after these consultation. Some ideas below.

The professor has been fired and senior administrators removed from their post. No mention of this in the New York Times, The Free Press, The Atlantic or other outlets who drove the campus speech moral panic.

The alliance needs a similar statement from Trump today.

It’s good news that Poland tracked the drones and shot them down, but 4 out of 19 is a bad number. Could they not get more? Did they decide to not shoot down more bc no danger? More info would be good but 4 out of 19 sounds less good than initial reports.

Polish and Dutch fighters, directed by Italian early warning aircraft, German air defenses on alert. Dutch PM: “I’m glad that Dutch F35 fighter jets were able to provide support. The Netherlands stands shoulder to shoulder with our NATO ally Poland.” Common defense working as designed.

Kudos to House Republicans for funding the Baltic Security Initiative.

NATO is working like it is supposed to. Shoot down the drones, trigger article 4 and discuss what is done to deter and defend against future Russian attacks. on.ft.com/4mcrbot

Ukraine and the coalition of the unwilling @gideonrachman.bsky.social right to remind us that with Trump one always needs a Plan B.

France's government collapsed tonight, and President Macron will have to try to find his 5th prime minister since his second term started in 2022. As the French president is further hobbled, it's bad news for Europe's leadership crisis at this moment.

The problem with saying that "Trump isn't an ally" (a start of a public campaign for the dramatic increases in defense spending necessary for an independent European defense) is that you also have to recognize that Europe can't currently defend itself w/out the US. www.politico.eu/article/dona...

@shashj.bsky.social on the most recent episode of Brussels Sprouts making the case that a European force for Ukraine could both signal Europe's broader commitment to come to Kyiv's defense and could focus on rearming and rebuilding Ukraine's armed forces. www.podbean.com/ep/pb-zwz3z-...

Putin triggered by discussion of a European force for Ukraine. Also, seems to imply that he would accept troops after a peace agreement. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/w...

seems counterintuitive

The most important news from today's reshuffle: