In Moscow's Shadows 224: In Helsinki's (and Kyiv's) Shadows From where's Lavrov to Europe speaking to Putin, qs raised during a recent trip to Finland. And, in 2nd half, Pokrovsk and what to make of the Midas corruption case - and how Russia covers it www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

What the fall of Pokrovsk tells us about the Russia-Ukraine war My latest for @thetimes.com - the likely imminent fall is a military reverse for Kyiv, but also needs to be considered in its political context, both Ukr manpower issues and winning over Trump www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

As usual, ignore the clickbait title, but also as usual, @hugorifkind.bsky.social manages to cram a lot of sharp qs into this 10-minute Times Radio chat about Putin and the updated version of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN (published last week) youtu.be/DyuzfMba1C4?...

The Russians have a dense calendar of days devoted to various professions, and today is Police Day. So AiF offers a bizarre and bewildering array of virtual cards to send to the cop in your life, from cute kitten/puppy ones to cops as... Terminators? aif.ru/society/gall...

Lovely see see that the estimable @dauntbooks.bsky.social has listed HOMO CRIMINALIS as one of their History and Current Affairs Books of the Year, calling it “fiercely readable and ultimately chilling”

I follow very few podcasts but I do this one, and episodes like this is the reason why.

Monday morning re-up: at this stage it's futile to say who will eventually succeed Putin (you know, after his and Xi's 150 years...), but we can consider the kinds of people who might emerge based on the circumstances of the time

In Moscow's Shadows 223: After Putin Who... or What? It's fruitless to try and come up with names of potential successors - but maybe we can identify archetypes, the kinds of people who might succeed him, depending on the perceived needs of the day. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Out today!* The updated edition of WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN from Ebury (@penguinrandomhouse.bsky.social), taking the story into the darker years since it was written in 2018 * Hardcopy in UK, ebook everywhere, hardcopies elsewhere in due course...

I like the Blakean note this podcast ends on, re: the Kremlin's "Mind-forg'd manacles." Also glad that Mark agrees with me about operation names like "Resolute Dragon." 🐲 I was one of the people asking for a very special "In Tokyo's Shadows" episode, and it was worth the wait. 🎧 Thank you, Mark! 😁

Manoeuvre Warfare is a Social Construct Aptly subtitled "Or, we all want to be Napoleon", a useful rumination on the pitfalls of "manoeuvrism" by @so3brocktree.bsky.social substack.com/home/post/p-...

In Moscow's Shadows 222: Are We Seeing A New Putin? A busy day yesterday meant I was able to record and upload, but not do the social media hype. Anyway, I consider how Putin may have changed over the past 7 years: welcome to 'Putin squared' www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

With the revised + updated version of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN coming out next week, a chance in @thetimes.com to consider what seems has changed since writing the original in 2018. In short, Putin has become 'Putin squared,' almost a caricature of himself www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

Next week! The revised and updated WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN from @penguinrandomhouse.bsky.social is out on 6/11. Ukraine, Prigozhin, COVID, Navalny's murder, a lot has happened since it was first written... www.penguin.co.uk/books/439532...

I'm doing a webinar on 'Understanding Russia's Strategy' for Wikistrat on 5 November. It's free, and if you want to 'attend', the sign-up form is here: i.wikistrat.com/ru-strtg

Why is Putin obsessed with nuclear ‘wonder weapons’? It's more than just cosplaying Dr Evil. My take for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...

Monday morning re-up: Will Moscow have the vision, courage and flexibility to seize the opportunity to improve relations with Japan under its new PM? When has it ever?

In Moscow's Shadows 221: Is the Sun Rising over Russo-Japanese Relations? The new Japanese PM wants a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to seize the moment -- while keeping China and North Korea happy? www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Can we organise a sort of Davos-style boot camp for billionaires, where @markgaleotti.bsky.social explains to them how that works in Russia and how it rarely ends well for the local magnate?

When Will Putin's War Machine Break Down? | One Decision No, don't expect me to give a hard answer to that q! Was delighted to sit down with Kate McCann and Sir Richard Dearlove to talk about the war for the One Decision podcast www.youtube.com/watch?v=vX_8...

Tomahawk diplomacy: how Putin outmanoeuvred Zelensky Trump may be bolstered by his success in the Middle East but the Donbas is not Gaza and the Russian president has cards still left to play My latest for @thetimes.com (£) www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

We need to talk about WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN! I've just received the advance copies of the revised and updated version of my 2019 book from @penguinrandomhouse.bsky.social, out in the UK 13 November. Ukraine, Navalny, Prigozhin - lots to include but the core takes hold true.

«La Russia di Putin è prigioniera del passato. Una popolazione plasmata dalla guerra» Somehow, I doubt the Italian translation of my FORGED IN WAR will fall into Putin's hand, but I appreciate the image, and the chance to talk to Corriere della Sera about the book www.corriere.it/esteri/25_ot...

How Crime Organises the World Great to talk about my book HOMO CRIMINALIS on this Australian Police Jnl podcast ep. Australian cops inevitably have rather different perspectives on some of the geocriminal challenges of the 21stC to Euro counterparts! www.buzzsprout.com/1623766/epis...

Monday morning re-up: Looking for the new Nikolai Patrushev?

In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'? Has the FSB's Military CI Department a new head? What does this mean for the FSB's internal politics - is 'crown prince' Korolev finally going to take over? www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

What's that you say? You don't have the ebook of A SHORT HISTORY OF RUSSIA? Inconceivable! Fear not, though: it's on sale at Amazon.co.uk for a trivial 99p this month

7 October – Putin’s 73rd birthday. I won’t wish him many happy returns, but let’s just spend a moment pondering the dilemmas that will likely face him in the coming year 1/

While listening to this podcast, @markgaleotti.bsky.social mentioned his Forged In War #book. A masterful history of how war and insecurity, both real and perceived, have driven Russia’s destiny for centuries, including the invasion of #Ukraine. #Audiobook #Booksky #Kindle #Libby #Putin #Russia

Monday morning re-up: Apart from his stamina, what else can we glean from Putin's 4-hour Valdai keynote/Q&A - and how are the themes mirror-imaged in some of the most anti-Putin thinking in the West?

For those who can read Finnish or don't mind using Google Translate (which does a pretty decent job), an interview on the release of my book FORGED IN WAR in translation that inevitably wanders to Ukraine, drones, etc yle.fi/a/74-20185609

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai Key themes from Putin's 4-hour outing are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics. Everyone wants to oversimplify a complex world. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Will Europe’s ‘drone wall’ really defend us? The answer is, of course, both yes and no. Or rather that it is neither a quick nor perfect defence. My thoughts for @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/world/europe...

The loneliness of the long-distance war supporter in Russia An insightful post from @jeremymorris.bsky.social - how accumulating discontents and concerns caused by the war manifest not as resistance so much as brittle and irritable efforts to cosplay normality postsocialism.org/2025/10/03/t...

Monday morning re-up: Putin has not cunningly led us all to this state of play, so much as blundered and stumbled here. So what blunders may lie in his (and our) future?

In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief? We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet maybe a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders? www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

I was late getting to this episode, but it's a crucial one! Especially helpful is Mark's comparison of what's going on now to the 2015 Turkish shootdown of a Russian aircraft. You also get a snarky book review, which is always fun from Mark. PS: It's pronounced Emperor PalpaTEEN, not PalpaTYNE. 😉

Monday morning re-up: Yes, there is a threat from Russia. But mischaracterising it and, more to the point, presenting every potential setback as existential for NATO/the West risks actually inflaming the problem and encouraging Putin to push harder

In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe? Are we under threat? Maybe that’s up to us. Does the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position? www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

On hearing the news that Putin's fixer Kozak has resigned, I'm reminded of my assessment in the 2nd half of this episode back in October '23, when he was being touted as a potential successor. I concluded Russia could do worse. So, of course, he's gone www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Delighted to announce that the revised and updated edition of my slender primer, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN, taking events through the invasion of Ukraine to today, comes out (in UK) from @PenguinUKBooks/@EburyPublishing on 13 November. www.penguin.co.uk/books/439532...

Why Putin’s military drills are good news for the West My take on #Zapad2025 , with an admittedly slightly tongue in cheek ending, for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...

"The only real party left today is the party in power." I don't necessarily disagree, but it's striking to find such a full-throated condemnation of Russia's "expensive theatricalization of political life" in the nationalist Tsargrad news outlet tsargrad.tv/dzen/neudobn...

We're witnessing Putin’s reckless bid to get the Ukraine deal he wants Drones, threats, all part of negotiation, Putin-style. My take for @theipaper.com inews.co.uk/news/world/d...

Monday morning re-up: so much of the talk about European troops in Ukraine is, frankly, performative bluster. What might real security guarantees look like?

In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work? What might and might not work? Crucially, any guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable, if they are to reassure Kyiv and deter Moscow. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Putin’s ageing general leads Russia’s march towards gerontocracy My latest for @thetimes.com, on 70-year-old Gerasimov's apparent retention in post, as a symbol of ossification of strategy and leadership alike www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

Zelensky’s commissioner for sanctions policy reveals that Ukraine is finding more and more Russian and Belarusian electronics in the wreckage of missiles fired at it by Moscow, suggesting that Russia is increasingly able to replace the Western components it used to smuggle into its weapons.

Reuters recently raised the dangers as and when Russia's angry + traumatised soldiers come home. A reminder: I covered this in my podcast back in June: In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

What to Make of Putin's Drones Over Poland? Some initial thoughts. tldr: neither attack on NATO nor accident, it's a probe and a warning youtu.be/Dgg-FFpcwV0