With his rivals lost and distracted, Putin is on manoeuvres As usual, ignore the clickbait headline, but here's my attempt to unpick the q of whether the #Venezuela crisis emboldens or humbles #Russia for @theipaper.com (tldr: it's complex, but likely helps) inews.co.uk/news/world/w...

Monday morning re-up: lots going on in the world (Budanov, Venezuela, drone strikes) but their impact is still hard truly to assess. So, most of the ep instead digs into the tale of a Chechen gang that emerged in the 80s, battled through the 90s and died by the end of the 00s...

In Moscow's Shadows 230: The Rise and Fall of a Chechen Gang Before a deep-dive into the rise and fall of the Chechen Lazanskaya Brigada, I look at recent developments: Zelensky's new chief of staff, US ops in Venezuela, and 2 drone strikes... www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Putin hates risk. This may be the year he’s forced to gamble Peace is a dangerous game for Russia when it means relying on Trump, but continuing the war on Ukraine is a roll of the dice too My latest for @thetimes www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

Do Putin's New Year platitudes suggest he is tiring of ruling Russia? Perhaps simply tired, but anyway, here's my take on VVP's blander-than-usual address, for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog spectator.com/article/do-p...

Putin's extraordinary security measures and why an attack on his palace is so unlikely As we still await (in vain, I suspect) even a shred of evidence for the alleged attack, in @theipaper.com, I write about why it was so implausible inews.co.uk/news/world/p...

Is Putin a murderous master strategist, planning everything Russia does, while pining for the return of the Soviet Union? It seems much more nuanced, as described in this excellent primer by Mark Galeotti @markgaleotti.bsky.social (2025)

How Putin will threaten the UK in 2026 My take for @theipaper.com. Not the more fashionable, exciting and, for me, implausible suggestions of a direct military threat, but the more indirect challenges, regardless of whatever happens over Ukraine inews.co.uk/news/world/h...

Monday morning podcast re-up: for the last ep of the year, a look at individuals in the news, from Volodymyr Zelensky to Sergei Udaltsov, Dmitri Kozak to Fanil Sarvarov...

"The peace process may be unlikely to succeed, but it has narrowed the real issues in play down to two: Donetsk, and security guarantees for Ukraine provided by western troops after the guns fall silent.” Careful assessment by smart @markgaleotti.bsky.social.

In Moscow's Shadows 229: Heroes and Villains To end the year, instead of the grand sweep of geopolitics, a look at a collection of people making the news, sometimes whether they like it or not. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

The most likely thing to end the Ukraine war? Exhaustion I'm sadly not especially optimistic about the current peace process, but suspect that either way, 2026 may be the last year in which the war is sustained at this tempo. My latest for @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

I'm (sadly) sceptical about the chatter around the idea that Putin might step down in favour of Dmitry Kozak, but in case anyone is interested, I profiled "the technocrat with the Cheshire Cat smile" in episode 117 of In Moscow's Shadows, on 8 Oct. 2023 www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Just received my copy of the Italian edition of HOMO CRIMINALIS. The title makes it sound a tad like a textbook, but the subtitle ('the dark side of human civilisation') helps!

On December 22, the funeral of Stanislav Orlov ("The Spaniard") took place at the Christ the Savior Cathedral in Moscow. Orlov was the leader of the far-right brigade "Espanola" (88th Reconnaissance and Sabotage Brigade), who was compared to Prigozhin and Arsen "Motorola" Pavlov.

I was called a 'ranting Russophobe' in propaganda - it proves Putin's watching us My rapid journey from respected expert to ranting Russophobe, at least as far as Moscow's press is concerned - and the Russian media's fascination with what's in our own, for @theipaper.com inews.co.uk/news/world/l...

I realise I failed to flag up this wide-ranging conversation I had with the fascinating Philipp Blom for his Blomcast 'On Russia, Historical Continuity, and the Business of Diplomacy' blomcast.buzzsprout.com/2104173/epis...

Monday morning re-up: from 4.5 hours of the generally dull ritual of Putin's annual press conference/monarch-listens-to-the-people there are still some insights to be found, not least in the disconnect between what he wanted to talk about and what his people wanted to raise...

In Moscow's Shadows 228: Blood & Soil versus Bread & Butter What can we learn from 4.5 hours? A marked disconnect with a population that feels its social contract has been broken... and a president seeming less grounded and focused than in the past. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Putin smiles when your wifi fails: he’s waging a war of irritation Call it hybrid war, shadow war, or whatever the latest vogue vague term, my take on Putin's weaponisation of inconvenience for @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/world/europe...

Macron is right: Europe should talk to Putin This will no doubt inspire fury in some quarters, at the v thought of talking to Putin, but if Europe doesn't, then it is handing all the initiative to Trump. My take for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog spectator.com/article/macr...

Labour’s foreign interference inquiry needs to go *much* further Had an excellent conversation with the equally excellent @petergeoghegan.bsky.social for his 'Democracy for Sale' substack: foreign influence on UK politics, Russia, my book Homo Criminalis... open.substack.com/pub/democrac...

And we're out. Despite the soap opera moment of the young chap in what looked like an unfortunate bow tie proposing on camera to his girlfriend (we later heard from TASS that she said yes), probably the dullest one I've seen, but a few points of interest...

Ho ho ho. Fortified by lemon tea, settling in for my seasonal ritual of masochism: watching Putin's marathon press conference/call in show...

"Putin is stuck in a gilded cage of his own making, too insecure to dare step away from it, but probably too secure to be removed by anything other than his own mortality." My contribution to @theipaper.com's 'What Putin does next?' series inews.co.uk/opinion/furi...

Putin is building a larger, stronger army. Peace in Ukraine will only help him Obviously, we want peace for Ukraine. But, as I discuss in @theipaper.com, there are risks... inews.co.uk/news/world/p...

Are we really preparing for war with Russia? A moderately grumpy rumination on some recent statements for @thespectator1828.bsky.social that also tries to tease out some of the nuance behind the clickbait. tldr: rearmament is necessary, but demands a proper debate spectator.com/article/are-...

Monday morning re-up: As Europe/US/Ukraine continue to talk terms, a few thoughts on the current state of play. Then, in the second half, a rather depressed and exasperated deep dive into fractious rows within the democratic emigre opposition...

In Moscow's Shadows 227: It's War! (within the emigre opposition, at least) A DMZ that hides tanks? An EU asset seizure that could enrich Russia? NATO SecGen rhetoric that might undermine rearmament? And, a dinner that split Russia’s emigre opposition www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

How Russia’s National Guard may stymie the latest Ukraine plan Anyone would think making peace was complex... A quick piece for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-...

HOMO CRIMINALIS: Daunt Books called it "fiercely readable and ultimately chilling," and the FT "the readable, scary, fun beach read of new crime literature." Still time to pick it up as a Xmas present (including for yourself)!

How Britain can help Ukraine’s army without the US - and punish Russia My latest piece for @theipaper - my key point is at the end: the need for "strategic clarity," to be clear and explicit with Russia what happens if they break any ceasefire inews.co.uk/news/world/u...

Peace talks: What next? Recording of my conversation last week with John Lough for NEST Centre youtu.be/d6FFD7gb28s

Gran Meccanismo scenario “On a summer’s night, a theft” updated on Drivethru thanks to the sterling efforts of @brianduguid.bsky.social. Prettier, clearer and with more images. www.drivethrurpg.com/en/product/5...

Just a reminder: I’m at a workshop this weekend, so no In Moscow's Shadows podcast (Why not sample an ep from the back catalogue like #17 from 2020 inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis..., not least to be reminded how things have changed) Patrons: you'll be getting something else instead!

Russian companies are apparently having to spend on average 39% of their profit servicing their debts Can anyone more econ-literate than me tell me what analogous figures for the UK, US, EU or whatever are? All I can find are debt interest to INCOME not profit figures Thanks!

1. 🧵On the podcast this week, @markgaleotti.bsky.social joins @faisalalyafai.bsky.social to talk organized crime, narco-submarines and Miami gangsters — as set out in Mark’s new book “Homo Criminalis” — as well as a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine war. newlinesmag.com/podcast/lift...

A lot more details, plus various quirky historical stories, on my 1510 blog: wordplay1510.wordpress.com

Yes, not my usual Russia-focused fare, but if at any point you've been tempted by my Renaissance Florence-meets-Cyberpunk 'clockpunk' roleplaying game GRAN MECCANISMO, it's at 30% off on the @ospreygames.bsky.social site. A fine gift for you or anyone else! www.ospreypublishing.com/uk/gran-mecc...

Good podcast on Russia's forest spirits that reminded me of Sibelius's description of Tapiola: "Wide-spread they stand, the Northland's dusky forests, Ancient, mysterious, brooding savage dreams; Within them dwells the Forest's mighty God, And wood-sprites in the gloom weave magic secrets."

Monday morning re-up: thoughts on the current Ukraine negotiations including the whole 'trust' issue, and then how to draw a line between medieval Russians leaving milk and bread for the domovoi household spirit and modern Russian strategic culture...

Inside the mind of Putin’s real hatchet man I wouldn't call him a hatchet man, but Putin's foreign policy adviser these days has more sway than foreign minister Lavrov. A profile, for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog www.spectator.co.uk/article/yuri...

In Moscow's Shadows 226: Monsters in the Woods A few points on the peace process, from Trump's 'businessified' approach to geopolitics to the departures of Yermak and Kozak. Then, folklore as a parable for Russian strategic culture. Honestly. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Russia’s next move: which Putin will turn up to the peace talks? Warmonger, diplomat, accountant or mischief-maker? My latest for @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

How the Kremlin spins Yermak’s resignation A conundrum for Russian propagandists: how to make hay of this event without giving Kyiv credit or letting readers draw comparisons with corruption in their own country? I dissect one example. inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2025/11/29/h...

Cyberpunk-Historiker @markgaleotti.bsky.social​ zieht eine Linie vom gescheiterten Aufstand 1825 zum Wagner-Putsch 2023. Eine Hörtipp-Empfehlung von @evakonzett.bsky.social​ und eine Analyse, warum die Russische Bevölkerung den Westen nicht als Paradies sieht ↓

The 30-mile stretch of land that will dictate the future of Europe A quick piece for @theipaper.com on that piece of Donetsk region that could well the doom of any hopes of a peace agreement inews.co.uk/news/world/3...

Monday morning re-up: the proposed Ukraine deal framework (while we wait and see what revisions followed the US-Ukraine meeting) and the 1825 Decembrist Revolt, and what it may say about the situation today

In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine? In the 1st half, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal (and what it's not). In the 2nd, I spin off Rabow-Edling's excellent book on the 1825 Decembrist Revolt to consider its modern resonances. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

I'm sure this will be an unpopular opinion, but while the text of the US plan for Ukraine is poorly drafted and incomplete, it is not a simple call for Ukrainian capitulation. As a starting point for something that could stop the killing, it has some promise. A few thoughts 1/