Monday morning re-up: Yes, there is a threat from Russia. But mischaracterising it and, more to the point, presenting every potential setback as existential for NATO/the West risks actually inflaming the problem and encouraging Putin to push harder

In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe? Are we under threat? Maybe that’s up to us. Does the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position? www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

On hearing the news that Putin's fixer Kozak has resigned, I'm reminded of my assessment in the 2nd half of this episode back in October '23, when he was being touted as a potential successor. I concluded Russia could do worse. So, of course, he's gone www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Delighted to announce that the revised and updated edition of my slender primer, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN, taking events through the invasion of Ukraine to today, comes out (in UK) from @PenguinUKBooks/@EburyPublishing on 13 November. www.penguin.co.uk/books/439532...

Why Putin’s military drills are good news for the West My take on #Zapad2025 , with an admittedly slightly tongue in cheek ending, for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...

"The only real party left today is the party in power." I don't necessarily disagree, but it's striking to find such a full-throated condemnation of Russia's "expensive theatricalization of political life" in the nationalist Tsargrad news outlet tsargrad.tv/dzen/neudobn...

We're witnessing Putin’s reckless bid to get the Ukraine deal he wants Drones, threats, all part of negotiation, Putin-style. My take for @theipaper.com inews.co.uk/news/world/d...

Monday morning re-up: so much of the talk about European troops in Ukraine is, frankly, performative bluster. What might real security guarantees look like?

In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work? What might and might not work? Crucially, any guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable, if they are to reassure Kyiv and deter Moscow. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Putin’s ageing general leads Russia’s march towards gerontocracy My latest for @thetimes.com, on 70-year-old Gerasimov's apparent retention in post, as a symbol of ossification of strategy and leadership alike www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

Zelensky’s commissioner for sanctions policy reveals that Ukraine is finding more and more Russian and Belarusian electronics in the wreckage of missiles fired at it by Moscow, suggesting that Russia is increasingly able to replace the Western components it used to smuggle into its weapons.

Reuters recently raised the dangers as and when Russia's angry + traumatised soldiers come home. A reminder: I covered this in my podcast back in June: In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

What to Make of Putin's Drones Over Poland? Some initial thoughts. tldr: neither attack on NATO nor accident, it's a probe and a warning youtu.be/Dgg-FFpcwV0

This episode is a good reminder of what makes or doesn't make a coup successful, as well as what a constitutional crisis can wreck upon a state (a bit of a warning to America there, I'm afraid, after January 6th and looking forward...).

Monday morning re-up: History's reverberations today. Did the hardline coup plotters of 1991 kinda win in the end, and did Yeltsin's victory in 1993 doom democracy? Sadly, my answer is yes to both.

In Moscow's Shadows 215: A Tale of Two Coups The 1991 August and the 1993 October Coups are oddities, at once still very current in Russia, yet also veiled in myth and self-deception. Why? I'll argue is that together, they inadvertently paved the way for Putin. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

My first in-person book event for HOMO CRIMINALIS, at the ever-wonderful @waterstones.bsky.social Gower St is tonight, and I'm delighted to see it's sold out. Online events are one thing, but there's no substitute for three dimensions! Looking forward to the chance to talk all things criminal

Why is Putin so happy in China? I'll be interested to see what happens when Kim Jong Un joins the party for tomorrow's parade, but here's a quick piece for the Spectator blog on how the China trip is going so far. www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...

Monday morning re-up, now with added seagulls (no doubt complaining about my disrespecting former Prosecutor General Yuri Chaika...whose name means seagull in Russian)

In Moscow's Shadows 214: Law and Lawlessness in Late Putinism The FSB demanding more surveillance powers. Prosecutor General Krasnov becoming chair of the Supreme Court. Corruption cases up 16%. How late Putinism and late Brezhnevism are converging... buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Putin’s ‘percussive negotiation’ is latest attempt to bully Ukraine My latest for @thetimes.com , on Putin's brutal 'diplomacy by fire' (£) www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

FOREIGN PODICY | The Shadows Moscow Casts Over Historian Mark Galeotti Cute title for what is often a rather downbeat conversation with the FDD's Cliff May ("the man who went to university with Putin"...) www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_l3...

Putin closes 2 Kremlin departments previously overseen by Dmitry Kozak, the only member of Putin's inner circle to oppose the Ukraine war, as per NYT. The depts for interregional/cultural ties abroad & border coop are dissolved, replaced by a new directorate led by domestic policy czar Kiriyenko.

Yes, this is one of the most important geopolitical aftershocks of the Russo-Ukrainian War, and I don't think it gets nearly enough attention in the West. Thankfully, @markgaleotti.bsky.social has also spoken about this, most recently in terms of Azerbaijan and Turkey's calculations.

Why has Putin gone after the British Council in Kyiv? To explain, not to excuse, here's my take for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog of what I presume was a deliberate targeting www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...

A Conspiracy Theory About the '91 August Coup Gets More Interesting An article suggesting a hard-line KGB chief wanted to replace Gorbachev with Yeltsin appears in Komsomolskaya Pravda and then is quickly disappeared. Just as well someone kept a copy... inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2025/08/25/a...

Monday morning podcast re-up: peace in Ukraine (remains distant), Foreign Agenting in Russia (Putinism betraying its partisans) and three books on Ukraine (illuminating how we think of the war)

The anniversary of Prigozhin's not-actually-that-mysterious death seemed a good opportunity to hype my and Anna Arutunyan's @penguinrandomhouse.bsky.social DOWNFALL, charting the man's rise and, um, fall, and what it all says about Putin's #Russia www.penguin.co.uk/books/460781...

Ignore the bluster. Putin may be open to a Ukraine deal He's no less imperialist, but faces enough pressures that I think he is willing to see if he can get a deal *he likes* now, but to fight on if not. I'm still not optimistic My latest for @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

In Moscow's Shadows 213: Foreign Agents in Russia, Foreigners in Ukraine... The frozen peace process, what the case of Sergei Markov says about 'late Putinism', and what 3 recent books tell us about how we discuss and think about the war in Ukraine... www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

The battle of the trolls. As Lavrov becomes more and more intransigent and belligerent in his statements (and that's saying something), one can't help but wonder if his new role is as the 'thinking man's Medvedev.'

Are We Any Closer To Peace In Ukraine? First and undigested thoughts on yesterday's White House conclave with Trump, Zelensky and European leaders. tldr: I'm not outright optimistic about the prospects... but closer to being optimistic than before youtu.be/DIHxxreHecc

6:30pm, Thursday 4 September, I'll be talking about my latest book, HOMO CRIMINALIS, at the inimitable ‪@waterstones.bsky.social‬ Gower Street, London. Mafiosi as state-builders, how Marconi was hacked, what gangsters can do with drones, and lots more criminality. Do come along!

Why Putin wants Donetsk We still don't know the real terms of any proposed deal, but it's clear he wants Kyiv to surrender the rest of the Donetsk region. My thoughts for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...

Monday morning re-up: as Zelensky and his human shields head to DC, what seems to have happened in and since Alaska?

You could read a bunch of bad takes about the Alaska Trump-Putin meeting... ...OR you could listen to this podcast by someone who actually knows what they're talking about. I mean, I guess you could do both if you have a lot of time. 🤷‍♂️ Echoes what @shashj.bsky.social said about Donetsk issue.

In Moscow's Shadows 212: War and Peace and Alaska Where is the world after the Alaska summit? Putin won, but did Trump really lose? And if - if - we are any closer to a peace, what might that look like? A rather freeform, thoughts-in-progress episode www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Apologies: paywalled after all

What Putin said and what he meant, with a flash of sharp teeth My take in tomorrow's @thetimes.com on reading into his actual words, as well as the context Usually paywalled, but I *think* you can read this article for free. www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

Beware quick translations. The transcript of Putin's remarks in Alaska have him talking about "the agreement that we’ve reached together" but he used the word ponimanie, which better translates as the much vaguer "understandings"...

New Episode of 'Dictators v Democrats: Why We Fight' out now! with @markgaleotti.bsky.social Dictators are forever dancing on a razor blade. Lose your balance and it’s ignominy, The Hague, or worse. Full episode out on YT and podcasts. Link in bio!

I gave a far-ranging interview about Russia and its place in the world with @GeopolitikaNo, which is coming out in 3 paywalled instalments, but the excellent @revueconflits have reprinted part, in French but free! www.revueconflits.com/la-russie-se...

How Russia is preparing for Putin’s meeting with Trump Russian newspapers are less bullish about any Ukraine deal as the spectacle of Putin meeting Trump as a sign of renewed great power status and a resumption of US-RF relations www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-...

Monday re-up: the slender chances for peace, the potential outcomes, and a little side-rant about excessively triumphalist/doomerist click-bait on YouTube...

In Moscow's Shadows 211: Trump, Putin, Alaska... Are we on the brink of peace in Ukraine or another mess? I wish I could be more optimistic. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

‘Beware the power of a neat acronym! ... 🇨🇳, 🇷🇺, 🇮🇷 and 🇰🇵 are as bound by mutual mistrusts and competing ambitions as common interests,’ argues @markgaleotti.bsky.social, our Adjunct Fellow #BigAsk #BritainsWorld

Not yet read DOWNFALL, my and @scrawnya's book about #Prigozhin's rise and fall, and what this says about the evolution of #Putin's #Russia? It's on sale on Amazon.co.uk's Kindle site for a trivial 99p!

The rule is: when you get a new @markgaleotti.bsky.social book you must photograph it with delicious food and a James Garner media property. I don't make these rules, but I follow them devoutly.

Is Summit Up (or, what may happen when Donald meets Vova)? Quick thoughts... youtu.be/C9IIVNowflw?...

Publication day! HOMO CRIMINALIS, part history, part rumination on the place of organised crime in the evolution of 'upperworld' society, part look to the future. From art and antiquities crime to modern people trafficking and 17thC Chinese eunuch gangs... @penguinrandomhouse.bsky.social