The shadow fleet: there's good news and bad news. - Baltic Sea countries are inspecting, boarding and detaining more shadow vessels. - But shadow vessels are becoming more brazen. www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res... The latest @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats report. No paywall.

In my latest @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social article, I preview Shakhtar Donetsk’s semi-final matches in the UEFA Conference League, arguing how this Ukrainian football club can provide Ukrainian soldiers and fans with a reason to cheer amid an ongoing war www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

Co-authored this piece with @brittgronemeyer.bsky.social in the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social ‘Discourses’ on how the IRI’s role in providing to Russia Shahed-style drones used in attacks on civilians could lead to accessory liability for individuals in Iran. www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/t...

Iran-backed Iraqi militias have escalated attacks across Iraq in recent months, hitting US, Iraqi, and civilian targets, adding to growing instability, writes Victoria Taylor. Read more:

Iran is operating a “toll booth” in the Strait of Hormuz. But how are Tehran and oil buyers actually settling their payments? Drawing on new GeoEconomics Center research, Alisha Chhangani unpacks the policy levers Iran is pulling:

Venezuela's surveillance state did not fall with Maduro. The system is still running under Delcy Rodríguez. A joint research between @conexionsegura.bsky.social and the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's Democracy + Tech Initiative documents the repressive infrastructure. dfrlab.org/2026/03/26/w...

To succeed in overthrowing the Iranian regime, an uprising would likely require a unifying leader, an effective organization, and the support of whatever remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, writes Alan Pino.

The United States “must heed the lessons of history and avoid conflating the temporary satisfaction of decapitation strikes with a coherent strategy that will weaken cartels,” writes Charlotte Bertrand.

Iran’s decision to target the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the Gulf will have far-reaching consequences, writes Allison Minor. Read more:

Worried about how the Iran conflict could impact oil prices? “Now is not the time to hyperventilate over oil,” says the Atlantic Council’s Landon Derentz. The United States, he writes, should first focus on ensuring Iran does not emerge from the conflict “with a viable nuclear weapons program.”

FAST THINKING: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a US-Israeli bombing campaign on Saturday. Atlantic Council experts assess the significance of the development for Iran and the broader region:

FAST THINKING: On Saturday morning, President Trump announced a “massive and ongoing” attack on Iran. With the goals, duration, and outcome of this emerging war still unclear, our experts make sense of the conflict’s early hours:

#UkraineAlert – As Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its fifth year, Moscow is increasingly relying on African recruits to prevent its battlefield losses from destabilizing the country, writes Katherine Spencer.

📈 Media organizations are increasingly treating prediction markets as authoritative signals. Policymakers should treat them as dual-use infrastructures that require deliberate guardrails, writes Matthew Wein.

🔴 What will the world look like in 2036? We asked 447 geostrategists and foresight experts to share their insights. 🇨🇳 China leads economically 🪖 Russia’s war in Ukraine freezes 🚀 More countries go nuclear 🤖 AI surpasses human capabilities Explore the survey’s ten biggest findings:

The Trump administration’s seizures of “shadow fleet” vessels evading US sanctions raise several crucial legal and logistical questions, writes Stephanie Connor. Read more:

The tentatively planned resumption of US-Iran nuclear talks this week does not mean US military action is off the table, writes Nate Swanson. Read more in Dispatches:

By focusing on shared interests on counternarcotics and Venezuela, Tuesday’s Oval Office meeting between the US and Colombian presidents can put the two nations’ bilateral relations on a better path, writes Kevin Whitaker.

🎙️ Introducing Guide to the Global Economy podcast, from our GeoEconomics Center. In the premiere episode, Josh Lipsky and Charles Lichfield discuss: what happens when a central bank loses independence? 🎧 Watch or listen now 👇 YouTube: https://bit.ly/4r8vHqI

The India-EU free trade deal announced on Tuesday is “one of the most dramatic markers yet of how the global system is reorganizing itself in the time of Trump,” writes Frederick Kempe in #InflectionPointsToday. Read more:

A new entity controlling TikTok in the US is being sold as a step toward addressing foreign influence and data security concerns, writes Kenton Thibaut. But China’s influence campaigns and access to data on Americans do not rely on TikTok.

Trump’s ‘shock therapy’ approach to Europe has “broken decades of strategic complacency and forced long-postponed decisions on defense, trade, and autonomy,” writes Frederick Kempe in #InflectionPoints.

Trump’s willingness to engage in brinkmanship with Europe over Greenland will have a lasting impact on how the continent’s leaders approach relations with Washington, write Jorn Fleck and James Batchik.

FAST THINKING: The Justice Department is undertaking a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Our chair of international economics Josh Lipsky explains how this could impact US and global markets:

Delcy Rodríguez's role as Venezuela's acting president is an impossible balancing act: satisfy Trump's demands, maintain support from the Chavista coalition, and keep alliances with China, Cuba, Iran, and Russia. www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/d... @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social

Canada's defense industrial base will struggle to deliver in its current state says Jason C. Moyer with the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

In my latest piece I argue that the survival of #NATO is at stake if the United States intervenes to seize #Greenland, and that such a development would be contrary to #US national interests. Read the article⬇️ @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/t...

In a new article for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social, SIS scholar @yerevansaeed.bsky.social discusses Iraq’s political future, examining why transfers of power are critical to long-term stability. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/iraqs-pathway-to-stability-relies-on-transfers-of-power/

Venezuela’s new acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, must satisfy Washington’s demands while maintaining sufficient support among the Venezuelan elite to avoid a regime fracture, writes Iria Puyosa.

If the United States intervenes to seize Greenland, the future of NATO would be at stake. Such a development would be contrary to US national interests, writes Anna Wieslander.

Many US analysts view the ouster of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro as benefiting the US at China’s expense, but two big factors make this less of a win for Washington and less of a loss for Beijing, writes Melanie Hart.

In responding to recent rhetoric from the White House about “taking” Greenland, European leaders need to look beyond the legal infeasibility, writes Justina Budginaite-Froehly.

“Ultimately, what’s needed in Venezuela is a partner government that allows for the freedom of its people, respects foreign investment, and that advances US and Venezuelan security and economic interests,” writes Jason Marczak.

On Wednesday, the US Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2026. The bill authorizes more than $900 billion in spending and covers all corners of the defense policy landscape. Below, Atlantic Council experts dig into the details. ⬇️

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent visit to Tunisia has renewed speculation about Tunis’s shifting posture toward Tehran and the broader expansion of Iranian influence in the region, writes Alissa Pavia.

#UkraineAlert – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid a personal visit last week to a front line city that Putin has repeatedly bragged of seizing in order to expose the Russian leader’s habit of lying about battlefield gains, writes Peter Dickinson.

President Trump’s intervention in the Thai-Cambodian border dispute delivered a cease-fire, but its violation exposes the fragility of tariff diplomacy and raises questions about the durability of coercive US diplomacy in the region, writes Amy Searight in an issue brief.

As traditional powers retreat, middle powers like Turkey, the UAE, Qatar, and Indonesia are stepping into Africa with ambitious investments and strategic outreach, writes Rama Yade in an issue brief.

#UkraineAlert – “Europe’s reluctance to pay for Ukraine’s defense is shortsighted,” write Elena Davlikanova and Lesia Orobets. If Russia’s invasion succeeds, Europe will face defense spending far higher than the current cost of backing Ukraine.

Experts react: What Trump’s National Security Strategy means for US foreign policy - and why the US trade and tariff policy undermines its approach to China. Delighted to be included here with distinguished @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social experts. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

What’s in the new US National Security Strategy. My @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social colleagues & I go through the good (there’s a bit), the bad, and the ugly. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

“A democratic transition in Venezuela must begin with Maduro out of power,” writes Jason Marczak. “It is imperative any opportunity for change is not usurped by many malevolent actors in Venezuela.”

“Russia’s systematic removal, indoctrination, and militarization of Ukrainian children goes to the heart of the broader security dilemma that must be resolved before the war in Ukraine can end,” writes Kristina Hook in #UkraineAlert.

A “Russia-friendly” peace deal that legitimizes occupation or implicitly accepts the Kremlin’s claims to expand its territorial gains in Ukraine would destabilize the region and seriously damage Turkey’s long-term position, writes Yevgeniya Gaber.

My latest for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social. After going all of 2025 without passing any legislation on Ukraine—the first time since Russia's full-scale invasion—congressional Republicans spent the last week putting remarkable pressure on the White House over its proposed Ukraine deal.

First there was a sudden string of mysterious cable & pipeline incidents in the Baltic Sea. Then the Baltic Sea nations collectively took action. The incidents have stopped (for now). www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res... An @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative report.

As US sanctions on Venezuela have intensified, the Maduro regime has grown increasingly interested in leveraging digital assets to facilitate oil transactions, writes Maia Nikoladze.

🇨🇦In Toronto, the DFRLab joined @globalaffairs.canada.ca’s Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM Canada) & @utoronto.ca for the G7 Digital Transnational Repression Detection Academy Symposium launching a new initiative, strengthening how G7+ partners detect & counter digital transnational repression.

Knock on wood - but the Baltic Sea hasn't had any cable/pipeline incidents lately. More about it: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res... (This is the latest report from the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats initiative. No paywall.)

“It’s in the interest of the US and its friends and allies—in NATO and the Indo-Pacific—to help Taiwan help itself to avoid a war through deterrence,” writes Markus Garlauskas in a dispatch from Taipei.