What’s in the new US National Security Strategy. My @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social colleagues & I go through the good (there’s a bit), the bad, and the ugly. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

Putin stiffed the US peace plan. Here’s how the US should respond: stop negotiating with ourselves and increase the pressure on the Kremlin. time.com/7338224/trum...

Pushing hard for a sustainable deal to end the Russo-Ukraine war is good. Racing to close any deal risks being played. As we see with Steve Witkoff. kyivindependent.com/when-you-wan...

Secretary Rubio is in Geneva to work through the weak plan with key Europeans and the Ukrainians. Good to sort out (& hopefully improve) the plan w/o yet more Russian input. Steep path to that goal, but Rubio has depth on the issues.

The US peace plan for Ukraine is a hot mess. Ukraine is under pressure to accept. But they don’t have to chose between surrender & defiance. Here’s how: www.justsecurity.org/125365/ukrai...

The draft US-Russia “peace plan” for #Ukraine is a “hot mess,” writes @ambdanfried.bsky.social. But Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy is right to try to work with it rather than reject it outright, Fried says, offering some possible negotiating pointers: www.justsecurity.org/125365/ukrai...

President Trump’s shifts on the #RussiaUkraineWar baffle Ukraine and its neighbors concerned about Putin’s aggression toward Europe. @ambdanfried.bsky.social examines lessons from history to “make sense of current turmoil.”

Good that JD Vance shows exasperation w/Kremlin stonewalling on Ukraine. Better still if the US acts to increase pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine, which it can. x.com/wartranslate...

Always read @ambdanfried.bsky.social for nuanced, sober, historically-informed, pragmatic analysis that doesn't skimp on values or justice either. Here's his latest on how the #Russia-Ukraine war could end and, crucially, what security for #Urkaine really means in practice: 👇

3/3 Link to @ambdanfried.bsky.social's essay at @justsecurity.org Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders in White House Meeting: Progress Toward a Deal?

1/3 A revealing twist in the Ukraine diplomacy. On the left: On Tuesday, @ambdanfried.bsky.social anticipated that Witkoff may have missed a deceptive offering by Putin on security guarantees. On the right: On Wednesday, @antongerashchenko.bsky.social identifies the Russian move.

US policy is a roller coaster. But after yesterday’s WH meetings, there is a path to greater security for Ukraine, the most critical part of ending Russia’s war of aggression. www.justsecurity.org/119273/trump...

A new version of realism is establishing itself in Washington. But two models from the past can reveal a better way forward, writes Daniel Fried.

Trump’s Shift on #Ukraine and #Russia: @ambdanfried.bsky.social and @massdara.bsky.social explain what it means and what to look for, in conversation with Just Security’s @violagienger.bsky.social #RussiaUkraineWar #sanctions www.justsecurity.org/117252/podca...

NATO’s Hague Summit Declaration reaffirms Article 5, notes the threat from Russia, commits Allies to 3.5% 1.5% defense spending by 2035, and reaffirms commitment to contribute to Ukraine’s defense. Not glorious but good enough. Sometimes that’s what you need. www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

The Trump administration often dismisses #HumanRights as a serious factor in #ForeignPolicy. @ambdanfried.bsky.social on history’s lessons about the risks such thinking poses to solidarity and strategic interests: www.justsecurity.org/115191/trump...

Amid pride over recent successful strikes against Russian targets, Ukrainians are realistic about what it will take to end the war – from them, Putin, and President Trump. @ambdanfried.bsky.social reports from his latest trip to Ukraine: www.justsecurity.org/114139/trump... #RussiaUkraineWar

WEDNESDAY 12-1pm ET @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer, & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org discuss the #DOS reorganization, #USAID, and more. Unpack what’s happening, what’s at stake, and what lies ahead with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social Zoom RSVP: www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...

The US & Europe were just getting a handle on how to reduce the influence of malign foreign information operations. With the Trump administration’s retreat, can Europe step up more? From @ambdanfried.bsky.social: www.justsecurity.org/113163/is-us...

What’s Next for U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Assistance? An important discussion with leading experts @ambdanfried.bsky.social Dafna Rand Michael Schiffer @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org Co-hosted with @rcls-nyu.bsky.social Weds May 14 | 12-1pm ET | Zoom #USAID #DOS #diplomacy

Join us Wed. at noon! 🕛 Hear from @ambdanfried.bsky.social, Dafna Rand, Michael Schiffer & @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org as they unpack the impact of the proposed State Dept. restructuring. 5/14 | 12-1pm | Zoom Hosts: @rcls-nyu.bsky.social @justsecurity.org www.lawandsecurity.org/calendar/wha...

Key Europeans, the US, & Ukraine converge around a push for a 30-day ceasefire between Ukraine & Russia. Will Putin blow it off again? If he does (or fakes & spins), will the West (incl. US) turn up the heat on Russia & send more arms to Ukraine? www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/w...

There’s no good reason to trash the tools through which the US advances its interests by advancing its values. My take. nationalinterest.org/feature/who-...

A slow and immense shift: the US in the 1980s could not convince Europe to avoid dependence on Russian oil & gas. But Putin - in his aggression - has managed to do so.

@ambdanfried.bsky.social lays out an option for the intense talks on ending Russia’s war on Ukraine: A ceasefire roughly along existing front lines, with de facto recognition of Russian occupation, and Western forces providing security for Ukraine. www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...

How Trump can land the deal on Ukraine. A good-enough deal is emerging. Now it’s time to push Russia to get serious. www.justsecurity.org/112463/ukrai...

The worst US proposal for Ukraine is to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea. No NATO for Ukraine also bad. The first is not certain (yet) and there can be workarounds to the second. And there are some solid parts of the deal. Nothing set but things are in motion.

Talks to end the Russo-Ukraine War are in an intense phase. David Ignatius sums up the emerging potential deal. Am told it’s accurate. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Why the unilateral concessions to Russia? www.kyivpost.com/post/51216

The EU appears poised to take on X & other social media platforms for problems with integrity & transparency. Censorship or content control is bad. This action is different but apt to trigger a big reaction nevertheless. @apolyakova.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/t...

First-rate and (depressingly) well-timed cautionary piece by David Kramer & Albert Torres. The Germans learned the hard way that “change through trade” with Putin’s Russia is a sucker’s game. We should go back there.

Killing @rferl.org.web.brid.gy makes no sense. Here’s why: www.justsecurity.org/109219/us-go...

Is Donald Trump right about William McKinley as a high-tariff and imperialist president? President McKinley’s foreign policy was more complex than his reputation for high tariffs and imperial acquisitions would suggest, writes @ambdanfried.bsky.social.

Steve Hadley, Frank Kramer, & I try to look ahead to what a sustainable peace for Ukraine would take.

To resolve the war in Ukraine, Europe should lead the way in strengthening security guarantees for Kyiv—and the United States should provide limited but important support, argue Stephen Hadley, Daniel Fried, and Franklin Kramer.

“Scheduling issues”? What US interest is served by jerking around the pro-American, tough-minded, defense-minded @kajakallas.bsky.social? www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Did the US press Romania to let two accused sex traffickers leave the country? www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

The Trump administration’s plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine was gaining traction, but chaos risks undermining the approach. @ambdanfried.bsky.social probes a possible internal split on strategy: www.justsecurity.org/108205/russi...

Pressure? Inducements? Little works for long with Belarus’s dictator. But sometimes prisoners get out. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/15/w...

⚡️U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, said in an interview with Fox News on Feb. 13 that "formalizing Ukraine’s territorial losses" in a potential peace deal "will not equate to recognizing them."

And there's a Trump precedent to that: His first-term Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared official US policy never to recognize Crimea as Russian territory: 2017-2021.state.gov/crimea-decla...

Exactly, @violagienger.bsky.social!

Trump starts to roll out its Ukraine strategy. Weaknesses apparent, as is a certain pro-Russian tone. But maybe enough to work with. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

The case for USAID (flaws notwithstanding).

In Russian-occupied Ukraine, Ukrainians resist. Read about it here: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrain...

There’s no good reason for the US to threaten Greenland and Denmark. There is every reason, and opportunity, to do a good deal for everybody. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

This is real ‘mad king’ stuff. “It was not immediately clear how or where the federal government intends to transport the water.” www.latimes.com/environment/...

“When the facts change, I change my opinions.” John Maynard Keynes. Of course, the facts in 2021 pointed to a need for greater NATO members defense spending, but I’ll take the change and say thank you!