Russia's shadow fleet is dual-use: many vessels don't just transport sanctioned oil but have other uses too (think surveillance, threatening cables). One group knows a lot about them: Danish pilots. We should listen to them. foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/02/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com)

Helsinki District Court's judgment in the pivotal Eagle S case: - The court says it lacks jurisdiction - But it also says the three seafarers perpetrated "aggravated criminal damage". There are lots of implications. We won't have seen the last suspicious cable/pipeline incident.

Such a book is indeed in its way... Let's see what else may transpire between now and the publication next year.

It has been published: the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy's report on undersea cables. It was a privilege to be involved in the inquiry and see some of my suggestions picked up by the committee. publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt5901/jt...

What constitutes an act of war these days? The people defining this crucial issue are...underwriters. The trial of Serhii K will be of enormous significance for them - and indeed for everyone. foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/17/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)

A few days ago, Poland released an "in case of crisis or war" leaflet. It turned out to be prescient, what with Russian drones crossing into Poland last night.

Intently watching the Red Sea region for any announcements regarding the cable cuts. Were the cuts intentional? A massively unfortunate accident? The world of cables has truly taken turbulent turns since I began writing Undersea War. www.techradar.com/pro/microsof...

Taiwan's new Zero Day Attack television series: Brilliant entertainment - and the attacks (including sea blockade, disruption of the financial system etc) are very close to reality. That makes the show educational too. Lots of countries need a show like this. foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/29/t...

The UK (and other countries) should do like Sweden, which has just begun teaching national security (total defence, to be precise) in secondary schools. Investing in defence equipment is good. But teenagers' minds have even more potential. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... Me @thetimes.com

Another cheap Chinese EV is coming to the European market. Chinese EVs are cheap partly because they use LFP batteries. We seem doomed to dependence on China. But: Europe now has its very own LFP factory - in Norway. www.politico.eu/article/norw... Me @politico.eu

“The studies imply estimated [Gaza] life expectancy has fallen by more than 35 years, to ~ half the pre-war figure. In percentage terms…bigger than…during China’s Great Leap Forward; in absolute terms it is similar to the one in the Rwanda genocide” www.economist.com/interactive/...

We may be snickering at the Admiral Kuznetsov's slow demise and expected death. But she's not that important to the Russian Navy. Submarines are -- and the submarine fleet is growing significantly. foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/06/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall)

Greyzone aggression has become our daily reality. Now it emerges that Russia recruited a Colombian to commit arson in Poland.

The Committee's summary is very apt: War on every doorstep Great work, @tandhesi.bsky.social and team.

Greyzone aggression: Years ago, I had trouble convincing people it was worth taking seriously. Since then, it has exploded (so to speak). It was a privilege to be involved in the UK Parliament Defence Committee's outstanding inquiry. publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cm...

The Houthis are escalating their violence against ships - and seafarers. Global shipping's defenders need help. There's a global power that has a large navy and foreign-policy ambitions -- and a lot of seafarers now facing harm. India. foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/21/h... Me @foreignpolicy.com

Without the installers and repairers of subsea cables, modern life would not be possible. (Imagine if cables were cut and no repair crews were available.) But the workforce is ageing. Let's hope lots of people discover this crucial profession. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... (Me @thetimes.com)

It's very much worth noticing! And where else do people ranging from young children to tech types, ambassadors and pensioners team up to sing and dance together? Estonia is valuable indeed.

"The Song and Dance Festival demonstrates our societal resilience,” @tsahkna.bsky.social told me. Naturally, the Estonian FM was involved (as a singer). Doctors, nurses, tech types, teenagers, pensioners too. This is societal resilience. (And joy) www.politico.eu/article/esto... (Me @politico.eu)

If a string of undersea cables were to malfunction, global financial hubs could be shaken. The finance sector should demonstrate preparedness for cable blackouts. Especially since it transmits appr. $10 trillion through subsea cables every day. on.ft.com/4nLpvUQ (Me @financialtimes.com)

It's good for you (and your health). It's good for the country (as the Estonians just illustrated, again, with their massive Song and Dance Festival). Do a good thing for yourself and the country: join a choir. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu... Me @thetimes.com @mfaestonia.bsky.social

'War on every doorstep.' The UK Defence Select Committee's inquiry and report on greyzone aggression is out publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5901/cm.... It was an honour to be involved.

Russia's use of freelance agents to commit greyzone act right in our midst is frightening and sinister - and it's growing. The three men who set fire to a warehouse in east London last year acted on behalf of the Wagner Group. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Estonians know how to do it. The Song and Dance Festival is taking place with superior planning, superior artistry, superior logistics and enormous joy.

Regarding the news that Germany will inspect suspected shadow vessels' insurance certificates (www.reuters.com/world/german...): inspecting is better than not inspecting, but the certificates may turn out to be worthless www.politico.eu/article/chec....

Imagine what bright national-security ideas we might receive -- if we asked teenagers. They will, after all, have to live with whatever decisions are made today. And we need good ideas. Let's consult them. www.politico.eu/article/mili...

Thank you 👍

We need them for national service (and much else): our national security depends on (late) teens. So let's not just ask them to serve but consult them too. They may come up with national-security ideas the rest of us haven't thought of. www.politico.eu/article/mili.... Me @politico.eu. No paywall.

Thank you for flagging it up, @thelostcomms.bsky.social . Here's the link to the piece: www.politico.eu/article/we-n....

Tack! Obehagligt också eftersom situationen inte är så hypotetisk som man skulle vilja hoppas.

The shipping industry made an educated guess that Iran wouldn't close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US strikes on its nuclear facilities. Ships kept sailing at a normal clip. And - the shipping industry turned out to be right. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/24/i...

When others raised the spectre of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping industry remained calm - and kept sailing. For generations, the industry has weathered geopolitical storms by differentiating between fears and realities.

Be like the shipping and maritime insurance community and keep calm when tensions flare up. They kept sailing through the Strait of Hormuz even as a major war loomed - because they know it's in everyone's interest to keep shipping going. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/24/i...

What should Norway do about Russian fishing vessels that, in addition to fishing, engage in espionage and other subversive activities? foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/18/r...

Should Russian fishermen be allowed to fish in Norwegian waters (this kind of cooperation helps regulate fish stocks) even though many double as intelligence-gatherers and such?

What are Russian fishing vessels doing in Norwegian waters these days? Certainly more than looking for fish. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/18/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.)

What are Russian fishing vessels doing in Norwegian waters these days? Certainly more than looking for fish. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/18/r... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.)

Exciting to see the paperback out and about!

One of @theguardian.com's paperbacks of the month: Goodbye Globalization. www.theguardian.com/books/ng-int...

Delighted to see Goodbye Globalization (now out in paperback) featured as one of @theguardian.com's paperback recommendations this month! And what an insightful review by @pdsmith.bsky.social.

Such is the state of the maritime order that even the International Maritime Organization is struggling. What should countries committed to orderly oceans do? I have a few ideas...: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res... Part of @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's Maritime Threats initiative.

"Once we’re dependent on foreign steel, they could simply stop selling it to us [...] Steeling ourselves for an uncertain future means having steel at our disposal" MUST-READ @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social 's @elisabethbraw.bsky.social via @financialtimes.com #SaveEUSteel 🔗 on.ft.com/4eeyzUp

Russia's expanding use of "disposable agents" -- ordinary citizens in our societies recruited via apps for one-off attacks -- is truly troubling. That makes it even more important that governments, companies and citizens keep a vigilant eye. www.politico.eu/article/gig-... (Me @politico.eu)

Russia's expanding use of freelancers (ordinary citizens in our societies, recruited by apps for one-off attacks) is truly frightening Cunning greyzone aggression by a sinister regime that has no compunction about causing harm to others (incl Vietnamese shopkeepers in Warsaw).

@coldwarpod.bsky.social is superb. What a phenomenal and exciting resource on all things Cold War. It was an honour to have God's Spies featured.

Cheap imported steel threatens to kill Europe's domestic steel industry....which we need if we're going to build weapons (and much else). Making ourselves dependent on foreign steel would give other countries the ultimate kill switch. on.ft.com/3FsHaiY (Me @financialtimes.com. No paywall)

Arriving soon...the paperback of Goodbye Globalization 🍾

The Wargame: what a gripping and much-needed wargame of an attack on the UK. Featuring luminaries of British politics (and yours truly as NATO SecGen). Masterfully conceived and written by @deborahaynes.bsky.social & executed by the great Rob Johnson. news.sky.com/story/bluesk...

November next year. One wonders what else will have happened by then.

Undersea War: what a time to be writing this book. There are some really nasty operators out there. And, on the defender side, some really impressive people.