With the clock ticking down on Trump’s tariff deadline, and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič in Washington, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick took a family vacation to Italy, according to Politico’s Brussels Playbook www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...

US trade deficit with the EU has climbed to record-high levels since Trump's return to White House • US trade deficit with EU widened by 97% year on year in first quarter of 2025, to US$96bn • Data highlight how US firms frontloaded imports ahead of implementation of Trump's tariffs

More of Lavrov's statements from an interview with a Hungarian Magyar Nemzet media. If you've been following the war for any time, you will see nothing new here. So Russia has no willingness to end the war. Source: magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2025/0…

Away from the discussions at the BRICS summit today, Russia is pursuing an independent policy agenda in the arctic. "Europeans need to situate Russia’s growing ambitions in the region within Moscow’s broader strategic aims", write Mikhail Komin and Joanna Hosa in their policy brief 👉

Despite their geopolitical impotence on UKR and Gaza, Euros cld be helpful on 3 central aspects:restoring inspections of Iran nuke facilities, influencing Tehran’s LT calculus, and helping get a broader agreement that reduces the ISR gov’s pretexts to resume war carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Sefcovic is the latest EU official to call time on the end of freewheeling global trade "Those days are behind us"

OH the irony.

Ahead of the July 11 Polish parliament confidence vote on Tusk's govt (which he called for), read this by @susmonika.bsky.social assessing just how responsible Tusk and his coalition were for the presidential win by Nawrocki, the populist backed by PiS. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

🎙️ Excellent épisode du Collimateur d’ @alexjubelin.bsky.social avec @rmomtaz.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social et @elietenenbaum.bsky.social. Discussions très pertinentes et éclairantes sur la place de l’Europe et la notion de pouvoir géopolitique.

le possible "une zone d'interdiction aérienne" ça ne se fait pas Pourquoi? Parce qu'on a peur des Russes nous dit @rmomtaz.bsky.social d'où les rodomontades européennes Excellent épisode merci @alexjubelin.bsky.social @elietenenbaum.bsky.social @rikefranke.bsky.social lerubicon.org/collimateur-...

🇪🇺🇮🇱 Should the European Union suspend its association agreement with Israel? @amelieferey.bsky.social, Research Fellow at Ifri's Security Studies Center, shares her analysis in @carnegieendowment.org's latest commentary. ⤵️ www.ifri.org/en/media-ext... @rmomtaz.bsky.social

At the #NATO summit, Europeans have an opportunity to set new conditions for decades to come. They can strengthen the alliance by committing to a timeline that allows for a US drawdown while preserving American strategic enablers, argues @rmomtaz.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Moscow's way of signalling that "denazification" is still part of its game ( along with neutralisation, demilitarisation and annexation)

When they roll out and enforce the so-called "massive sanctions" *in coordination with the US* as they threatened Sunday then we can say they did it. Half measures and incremental measures aren't good enough anymore.

Also serving in the US military is one of the fast-tracks to citizenship for foreigners...

In the space of 5 days we’ve gone from a 24h ultimatum and “massive sanctions” bearing down on Russia, supposedly in coordination w/US, to Euros saying “we’ll continue to coordinate [with US etc] to define a united response”

START'EM YOUNG!

Rubio: only way to get breakthrough is for Trump and Putin to meet. Basically rewarding Putin w/summit for rejecting every demand. So much for terrible consequences the Euros threatened, claiming coordination w/US, if Putin refused unconditional ceasefire +no progress in TUR.

Narrator’s voice “Germany did not, in fact, spend 5% on defence”. (This is still helpful in the debate)

Interesting but let's actually see how that would happen concretely.

FR FM says Euro sanctioning 194 RUS oil tankers, 31 entities providing weapons, banks etc. Why not start by stopping Euro purchasing of RUS oil and gas. Since the price cap was intro, the EU as a whole has been the 4th largest purchaser as I wrote here: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

With Putin now ridiculing his own Turkey talks proposal, Re-upping this from me on Tuesday: "Instead of hollow ultimatums [Europeans] cannot enforce, it is now time they create military facts on the ground that impose a ceasefire in at least parts of Ukraine."

Unfortunately, there is also this, in the CDU 👇 (By @rmomtaz.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...)

And I am dismayed that the SPD still lives in past-time lalaland

Very important step taken by France: officially attributing cyber attacks against dozens of FR entities since 2021 to Russia's GRU (it also hacked Macron's campaign emails in 2017) : ministries, defense companies, think tanks etc

The 2d test will be how to handle the question of whether and when the Euros should reengage w/Russia. This was raised by a couple of countries, though not France, at a recent summit hosted by Macron. The question was dismissed as untimely, but it has since come up in lower-level discussions

the German est has to invest in a new foreign and security nervous system w/o US. Many recoil at recognizing that the US no longer wishes to be the ultimate guarantor of Euro security, continue to hold on to hope that everything will go back to normal, warn of an imagined “self-fulfilling prophecy”

WAPO: “.. ocean-container bookings from China to the U.S. are down by more than 60 percent .. “.. The consequence will be ‘empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks and covid-like shortages for consumers ..’” @davidjlynch.bsky.social @jeffstein.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Trump has turned the US from the West’s most reliable and lucrative asset into its biggest liability. Trump’s most extreme policies are not supported by a majority of Americans. most Republicans still support both foreign trade and defending allies’ security. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

We had to, this question is going to keep coming up! Shld Europe get closer to China, in light of Trump's tariffs? This week's #TTP with a great diversity of analysis from top-notch experts @ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social @noahbarkin.bsky.social and many others carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

This was one of my favorite discussions this yr. I find conversations abt AI/machine learning too black-and-white but Sinan and Sam’s insights provided both a clear-eyed reality check on the dangers looming but also on the accessible ways for each individual to limit the negative

@ceciliamalmstrom.bsky.social Hello, I'm trying to reach you, could you please follow me back? Thank you

From me, despite laudable FR-UK-led efforts: "the #s don’t add up, stmts by leaders have dangerously raised expectations. As currently defined, the 3 objectives laid out by Euros for bolstering their and UKR’s security remain out of reach." carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

We threw a big challenge to 9 experts on nuclear power and asked them to answer in 200 words whether the Europeans can built their own independent extended nuclear deterrent - their collective insights are worth the detour! carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

🆕| The coalition of the willing has raised unrealistic expectations about its support for Ukraine. To build a credible deterrent, Europeans and partners must revise their approach and help Trump strengthen his negotiating position, argues @rmomtaz.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

TTC was initially pitched to the Trump folks by Phil Hogan as an "anti-China club". The Europeans desperately hoped they could keep Trump engaged in it. Turns out that was a fool's errand.

Today @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu said it out loud: “Europe holds a lot of cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm counter measures if necessary. All instruments are on the table,” she told the European Parliament.

Last week the @financialtimes.com reported that the EU was drawing up plans to hit US digital and financial services as a retaliatory weapon to up the ante in the growing trade war with Washington www.ft.com/content/8d37... @bmoens.bsky.social @andybounds.bsky.social

Great to be part of this #TTP on European defence industry/ "buy European". Thanks @rmomtaz.bsky.social for including me!

L'heure est grave...

Après la publication du "White paper" de la Commission européenne sur le réarmement de l'Europe, le Casque et la plume revient sur ce document et sur la voie qu'il trace pour un réarmement européen, avec @elietenenbaum.bsky.social et @rmomtaz.bsky.social ▶️ lerubicon.org/collimateur-...

My commentary on the EU‘s defense white paper out now - instead of leaning in, in this moment of crisis the Commission is choosing a light touch and passing the buck back to member states - for @carnegieendowment.org with @erikbrown.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

EU leaders said today that they will continue to support Ukraine, but they did not immediately endorse a call by Ukrainian President Zelenskiy to approve a package of at least 5 billion euros for artillery purchases. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

In #TTP we ask: Shld UK/TUR be in "Buy European"? F. Mangiameli:"Integrating the UK and TUR into EU plans to rearm is both strategic and necessary" @gesineweber.bsky.social: "the inclusion of non-EU states into a Euro preference shld be subject to conditions." carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Frederiksen keeps delivering stunning positions, given Denmark’s historic positions.

Thought provoking piece by @rmomtaz.bsky.social on the return of spheres of influence and what the EU should do. For historians, it seems to me one of the most baffling questions one day will be why the US willingly threw Europe out of its sphere of influence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Yep. And Rubio/Waltz told CNN’s Marquardt last week “The President has made it clear and certainly made it clear to us that all fighting needs to stop...now we’ll take that to the Russians and get their response." I guess Trump changed his mind! Iran and upside are more imp.

Kyiv is gonna wait a long time…

This is the real test for Euro strategic autonomy: can Euros continue to arm and support Ukraine’s military regardless of what the US and Russia say? No intl law or rule prevents them. Its support for sovereignty and territorial integrity, as UN Charter Art 51 allows. Via @yarotrof.bsky.social

Putin is effectively setting the conditions. And he rejected even the limited air and sea truce that Macron/Starmer/Zelensky had suggested as a stepping stone. Clear from readout for Trump focal points are: - Iran - bilat rship w/Russia, “upside” and eco opportunities