Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan &  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s White House summit may transform the South Caucasus’ future, with a peace deal announcement. Philip Gamaghelyan & @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social warn that peace remains fragile: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991. In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...

Shared a few thoughts (for what they're worth) on the Russia–Azerbaijan tensions: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...

A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would put a definitive end to a decades-long conflict—and help prevent Russia from reasserting itself in the South Caucasus, argues @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.

www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p... Zaur's piece on Azerbaijan is excellent, authoritative, comprehensive and asks the hard questions about the country's future @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social

A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would cement a “new order in the South Caucasus,” writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. “Yet it is unclear whether Azerbaijan will embrace the opportunity.”

In my new piece for Strategic Europe, I look at how the EU and Turkey could work together in the South Caucasus, and what assumptions might need to change to make that possible: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU & Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Rewarding Russian aggression in Ukraine would send shockwaves across Eurasia. For three years, many countries in its former periphery have benefited from Moscow’s weakness. A bad deal now could reverse that—and embolden Russia. My latest: 🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

So much going on in the world that this commentary didn't get enough attention @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social on the importance of seizing the moment for an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal "Without peace, Baku risks mistaking short-term leverage for lasting influence." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel. youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...

The text of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is finalized — but Russia may not want it to succeed. I explore why in my latest commentary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Russia wading in again on the "Zangezur Corridor"/Syunik transit route across Armenia to Azerbaijan. Zakharova says the ARM-AZ-RUS working group has to be revived, talks of the "destructive influence of the West." A sign that Moscow is worried about losing leverage here to EU tass.ru/ekonomika/23...

My long essay on how Azerbaijan reclaimed its territories—what others shouldn’t try to copy, and what comes next for the South Caucasus. Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game. gfsis.org/wp-content/u...

Lots of good food for thought in @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social 's deep essay here on the reasons for Azerbaijan's success in the conflict with Armenia in recent years--and the reasons why it is important for Baku to cut a deal. gfsis.org/wp-content/u...

My piece on the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement -- a big step forward but a long way to go carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Azerbaijan-Russia relations are evolving, and I shared my insights on the shifting dynamics—please check it out here: caucasuswatch.de/en/interview...

On Akram Aylisli's wonderful early novel from the 1960s, People and Trees, now in English for the first time in Katherine Young's beautiful translation. A village, where the men are lost to the war, the women are in charge, modernity has arrived and a boy grows up www.the-tls.co.uk/literature/f...

I’ve started a Telegram channel, Beyond the Divide, where I share insights on politics, culture, economics, and literature, with a focus on the Caucasus, Türkiye, and Central Asia. Join here: t.me/beyondthediv... For more, check out my Carnegie colleagues’ Telegram channels: t.me/addlist/l2mF...

Mr. Putin’s statement “is a textbook example of a non-apology apology,” Mr. Shiriyev said in an email interview. “There was no direct acceptance of responsibility, no offer of compensation, and no commitment to hold those responsible accountable.” www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/w...

Quoted in @wsj.com on the plane crash: “Baku’s expectation is not only an apology but also an explanation why the pilots’ request to land was denied and why their GPS was jammed over the Caspian Sea—both of which could have saved the plane and its passengers.”
www.wsj.com/world/probe-...

At a roundtable in Istanbul on #Armenia-#Azerbaijan-#Türkiye relations, I argued the Baku-Yerevan talks are better seen as a normalization process—not peace—since peace remains vague and undiscussed. I also shared thoughts on U.S. influence. Insights here: caucasusedition.net/roundtable-d...