We nuke nerds at @scientistsorg.bsky.social published a piece this morning on the nuclear weapons displayed during China's 2025 Victory Day Parade. Read here for everything you need to know! 👇 fas.org/publication/...

One final prediction and I will shut up. No matter what is said inside the room, or what Trump would be willing to agree to, Putin will still push too hard, demand too much and overplay his hand. Because that's exactly what he has been doing for years and has neither desire nor capacity to change

Terrific primer ahead of today's #AlaskaSummit by my @cfr.org colleagues Charles A. Kupchan, @lianafix.bsky.social, and Paul B. Stares. www.cfr.org/article/what...

The data shows that Europe’s long-promised defence revival, driven by an injection of public subsidies, is beginning to materialise not just in policy rhetoric or spending pledges but also in concrete and steel on.ft.com/46OwOFn

Nachdem Armenien und Aserbaidschan ihr gemeinsam ausgearbeitetes Friedensabkommen in Washington paraphiert und damit inhaltlich festgeschrieben haben, hat es die Regierung in Jerewan veröffentlicht. Das ist nach Jahrzehnten des Konflikts historisch. www.mfa.am/en/press-rel...

Mein Stück für Die Zeit, in dem ich argumentiere, dass es wieder dt. Scheckbuchdiplomatie braucht: unabhängig davon ob Trump‘s Russland deadline und Kehrtwende bestehen bleibt, muss DE den langfristigen Einkauf von US-Waffen für die Ukraine sichern, nicht nur ad hoc: 👉 www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

Forging ahead: Russia sidesteps sanctions to import Austrian machinery for making howitzer barrels A Spanish company has supplied Russia with an Austrian radial forging machine.

“In an ideal world, Ukraine and Russia should have been the top priority at the summit,” @lianafix.bsky.social said. “But in a Donald Trump world, it’s understandable why major allies choreographed it the way they did.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/w...

This morning, @remkorteweg.bsky.social, @camillegrand.bsky.social, @robdewijk.bsky.social and @lianafix.bsky.social looked at the highlights of the NATO summit in The Hague and the alliance's near future. 📺Full session at The NATO Public Forum: t.co/yUJja0EGc6

🔴Wednesday at 08.00: Looking Ahead at Today's North Atlantic Council Expert panel with @remkorteweg.bsky.social, @robdewijk.bsky.social, @lianafix.bsky.social, @camillegrand.bsky.social, moderated by Ikenna Azuike. 📺Stream: www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2Hj...

9 specialisten die hun licht laten schijnen over NAVO-top volgende week: 1. @hoanssolo.bsky.social Hoe verdedigt Europa zich? 2. @lianafix.bsky.social Hoe gaat Duitsland zich verdedigen? 3. @frhoffmann.bsky.social Hoe zou Russische aanval op NAVO eruitzien? foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/20/n...

🆕🎙️ Neue Folge „Pod und die Welt“ vor dem #NATO-Gipfel (#21) Wie die Europäer einen Trump-Eklat in Den Haag verhindern wollen. Unter anderem darüber sprechen @mabialecki.bsky.social & Katharina Peetz mit @lianafix.bsky.social @cfr.org. Jetzt anhören: 👉 pod-und-die-welt.podigee.io/21-europas-t...

The #NATO summit in The Hague is just around the corner - what surprises should Europeans prepare for, and how can NATO's future look like in the long-term? Read Rebeca Lissner's and my new @cfr.org paper for everything you need to know 👉 www.cfr.org/article/weat...

🙏🙏

@lianafix.bsky.social and Rebecca Lissner have written a must-read brief on NATO's upcoming Hague summit. www.cfr.org/article/weat...

“Throughout Germany’s post-1945 history, rarely has there been a more challenging time for a German chancellor to navigate the country’s future”. ✍️ @lianafix.bsky.social www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/commentar...

Europe must stop underestimating China’s support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, write @lianafix.bsky.social and Heidi Crebo-Rediker.

👇👇👇

We thank all our panellists for their time and valuable contributions & insights! You can re-watch the whole event that was made possible in a cooperation with @cfr.org & @lianafix.bsky.social on our @dgap.org YouTube channel! 📺👇 /7

Trump kann es sich nicht leisten, die Ukraine im Stich zu lassen. Ein positiver Versuch von mir in @zeitonline 👉 www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

Now-Chancellor Friedrich Merz has the chance to make good on his promise to shift Germany from fragmentation to coherence. Will he accomplish the ‘Zeitenwende’ his predecessor could not? @sophiabesch.bsky.social and @lianafix.bsky.social write for @foreignpolicy.com ⬇️

What does yesterday's drama mean for Merz's chancellery? What to expect on Ukraine, USA, EU, China, Defense? Can he deliver on Zeitenwende? New piece for @foreignpolicy.com with @lianafix.bsky.social - Gift link: foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/07/f...

Happy to host a delegation from the @cfr.org (Paul Stares @cpa , @lianafix.bsky.social and Thomas Graham) at @euiss.bsky.social last week. We discussed the US strategy in Ukraine, European defence, and the broader state of the transatlantic relationship. An enlightening conversation!

“If Washington abandons Ukraine now, Europe could become the consuming crisis of Trump’s second term.” Read @lianafix.bsky.social and Michael Kimmage on how a U.S. retreat from Ukraine could trigger a drift toward division and conflict in Europe:

"The real risk of a precipitous American withdrawal of support is not that Ukraine will immediately collapse, but that individual European countries might lose the political will to stand up to Russia," write @lianafix.bsky.social and Michael Kimmage.

If you need more doom and gloom, this is for you: What if the U.S. walks away from Ukraine? It might be worse for Europe than for Ukraine. A new piece by @mkimmage and myself for @foreignaffairs.com @cfr.org 👉 www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/what...

Theories of Trump’s foreign policy strategy 2/2 - Do these theories align with Trump’s actions? - What are their chances of success? - What would they mean for other global players? With Gautam Chikermane @lianafix.bsky.social @alexgabuev.bsky.social Amanda Hsiao @stephenwertheim.bsky.social

Instead of creating the basis for joint action to confront China, Trump and his team have spent the past months pushing Europe into China’s embrace. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

If trade talks with the US fail to broker a reprieve from tariffs, the EU could decide that a sub-par deal with Beijing is preferable to a two-front trade war with both the US and China. My comments to the @financialtimes.com on.ft.com/3RSuynD

“…the DEI witch hunt, if not quickly halted, will deprive the government of expertise and experience and cause the next generation to shun public service.” An important analysis from @lrobinson.bsky.social and @cfr.org's Women and Foreign Policy Program. www.cfr.org/blog/trumps-...

Carnegie Europe gathered expert views on whether US tariffs mean Brussels should now align its economic and trade policies with Beijing. A helpful range of arguments and perspectives — including a few from me. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Unpacking three theories of Trump’s foreign policy strategy with @stephenwertheim.bsky.social @lianafix.bsky.social @alexgabuev.bsky.social Gautam Chikermane of & Amanda Hsiao of @eurasiagroup.net youtu.be/cVB2o1rNhPg?...

A tremendous honor to join my @cfr.org colleagues Mike Froman, @shannonkoneil.bsky.social, and @lianafix.bsky.social on stage in New York last night, discussing the very easy and straightforward topic of "The United States: At Home and Abroad." www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK8q...

@lianafix.bsky.social provides an excellent tour d'horizon of the sad state of Transatlantic Relations with some particularly useful insights on the view from Washington. www.rusi.org/podcasts/glo...

Ich habe mit dem @spiegel.de über die Geschichte gescheiterter Waffenstillstände mit Russland gesprochen: www.spiegel.de/geschichte/r...

A shocking and fascinating insight into the Trump foreign and security apparatus. From a European perspective, note how Vance, Hesgeth and Miller not only gush over 'pathetic' European free-loading, but also fantasize about what the extract in return for bombing the Huthis:

Wow.

Session II: Panelists Philip M. Breedlove, Fiona Hill, Pavlo Kilmkin, @apolyakova.bsky.social, and @lianafix.bsky.social discussed Ukraine’s role in Europe, how the war has affected the region’s security, and how the NATO alliance may change.

So the German government-to-be will use the existing parliament to exempt all defense spending above 43 bn euros (1% GDP) from the debt brake and establish a €500m infrastructure fund over 10 yrs. No precise defense spending target but this enables unlimited borrowing in theory.

Big, bad but unsurprising

The Russia first policy continues www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Here is my attempt to lay out what such a surge in #defence spending in Europe would entail, fiscally speaking. economist.com/europe/2025/...

France can't get from 2% to 3.5% more spending on defence without cutting somewhere else. It can't borrow more (debt-to-GDP is well over 100%) and it can't tax more (trust me I've lived there). Either France benefits from EU-level borrowing or it cuts social spending or people work more.

I am quite happy that the Financial Times wrote a nice article about our paper "Social Media Analysts and Corporate Innovation Strategy" papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

‘…“France and Britain are proposing a one-month truce in Ukraine "in the air, at sea"…In an interview with France's Le Figaro newspaper, Macron said that such a truce would not, initially at least, cover ground fighting’ www.barrons.com/articles/fra...

Cutting ties or throwing toys from prams would not help. The UK’s objective must be (and does seem to be) to *slow this down*. We need time to build security for the medium and long term

I agree 👇

I don't think Trump withdrawal from NATO is likely at this stage, but there is a very real risk that Trump blames Ukraine & Europe for a failure of diplomacy. Avoids needs to apply pressure to Russia, aids normalisation w/ Russia, allows him to abandon Ukraine with 'less blame' for consequences.

🚨The Trump administration is considering ending all ongoing shipments of military aid to Ukraine in response to Zelensky’s remarks in the Oval Office on Friday and his perceived intransigence in the peace process, per senior administration official