Folks who understand Iran: on a scale of 1-10, how dangerous is this wave for the regime?

2025 Roundup: It hurt

I find the thought of Ukraine's attack on Valdai deeply troubling. It's like harming the most sacred shrine and pilgrimage site that the believers in the NATO Expansion Fault Gospel, the worshipers of the Constructive Engagement religion and the practitioners of Russian gaslighting have ever had!

I am not sure how exactly "strong", "security" and "guarantees" go into the same sentence as their expiry date , but that is probably just me. Also, Putin plans on living until he is 150

I give up

Are you excited for the next round of stupid, outrageous, and inconsequential waste of time to get us all busy and embarrassed for the next 24 hours?

I would really love to see how Mearsheimer spins this

Happy Greatest Geopolitical Catastrophe of the 20th Century Day to all who celebrate!

Damn. People, somehow I finished a new book. It reads well too. So relieved. It's always good to finish stuff. Stay tuned.

Christmas came early to the Russia scholars with Santa declassifying the Bush-Putin meeting transcripts. That's 2001. Ukraine is Russian land, simply given away for no reason, as if USSR had not collapsed and there was no Ukraine independence referendum. And, long before the 2008 Bucharest Summit

All I want for Christmas is no more stupid peace plans

Wouldn't it be nice to sit back and wait for the Russian economy to implode. But are we ready for the non-trivial possibility that, choosing between collapse and massive escalation Putin would choose to escalate. No, this is not an argument for appeasing Putin, it's an argument for preparing for war

NATO and American imperialism made him do it.

"The emergence of Witkoff as envoy to the Kremlin is partly a story of Putin maneuvering to nudge aside America’s diplomats and clasp hands with its billionaires." Because the billionaires lack experience, can be manipulated. and have obvious conflicts of interest.

Everything in this story is remarkable, besides this part: "For three hours, Putin hosted Witkoff, who took notes as the president gave a lecture on the 1,000-year history of Russia" They are so lucky that we are so stupid. Gullible. Unprofessional. Corrupt. Naive.

Between people of whom we know nothing, I presume

The indefatigable @mikeeckel.bsky.social watched it all so that the rest of the sane world won't have to. We still have no idea if he is going to invade NATO, but at least we know that he is in love. A useful info, as far as Kremlinology goes

On The Historical Unity of American and Venezuelan Oil

It never went away, it was just mostly kept outside of the educated middle class bubble to which most secular Jews now belong so they had less personal experience. What changed is the willingness of our peers and elites—political, intellectual, economic, cultural, academic—to let it back in

#BBCNews - Sudan's RSF trying to cover up mass killings in el-Fasher, researchers say www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A very special end-of-war deal. Terms and condition apply.

Monday is the new Wednesday

Hey, Ukraine scholars, there is a job! A job! A job for you without "Russian", Slavic", "Soviet" or "Post-Soviet" in the title. A blue-yellow, trident shaped unicorn, in blood and flesh

Not sitcom, a reality show called "Ex-Dictator". They have to survive without their palaces, bank accounts and secret police. Every week one is eliminated and forced to return home to face justice. The winner stays in Moscow to watch it implode Btw, Rubliovka is large, not a small "gated community"

Say his name as many times as you can

The English language media headlines from the Bondi Beach shooting have oh so strong "peaceful Soviet citizens" vibes. All those senseless shootings in totally random places

Remember kids, Responsible Statecraft is to believe what Russia says and ignore what Russia does. When what Russia does contradicts what Russia says, move to the next thing that Russia says. Rinse, repeat.

Three days ago. No more words.

I feel like I have been hit in the head by a horseshoe

That's about four times Germany’s annual murder rate. Now, what would happen if there is a ceasefire and many thousands more Russian soldiers come home and it will be longer possible to send the killers back to the frontline. No wonder the Kremlin is not actually that keen on stopping fighting

I teach at a private school, but if this passes, I hereby volunteer to teach a class titled Western Civilization and Genocide. I can also do a sequence: Genocide and Pre-Modern Western Civilization, Genocide and Early Modern Western Civilization, and Genocide and Peak Western Civilization

They are literally going for broke, and not even Witkoff can prevent that. No wonder that the less delusional of them want a deal, want it fast, and most importantly, want it on the cheap. And they might as well get it

"'Low estimate is 60,000 people have been killed there in the last three weeks.’” As many as 150,000 residents of El Fasher remain unaccounted for Why, might be appropriate for our leaders, intellectuals, and activists who profess to care about our shared humanity to actually do or say something

Happy Budapest Memorandum Day to all those who have no idea what it actually is and don't care in the slightest

In Israel. The country feels pretty much like these flags look

Well, they might not have brought peace with Ukraine, but at least they are now also talking about war with Europe, so we are going forward

Warcriminal kleptocrats of the world, unite!

Netanyahu has requested a pardon from Israeli President Herzog. Netanyahu hasn’t been convicted yet and his trial is ongoing. We have to assume a pressure campaign on Herzog will follow and that Netanyahu will demand a pardon without admission of responsibility.

Everything you need to know about the NATO expansion threat that made Putin invade

Late stage kakistocracy. Future historians are going to spend years debating whether the key driver was honest stupidity vs. cynical corruption. My working hypothesis: why can't it be both?

Kicking corrupt officials out is good, actually. Sure, not as good as not hiring corrupt officials to begin with. And not as good as not allowing them to become corrupt while in office. Still, kicking them out is orders of magnitude better than what most of us live with

I am just a small town political scientist, but I am not sure this is how it works. But then again, quite possibly the National Security Advisor, the Secretary of State and the Archivist of the United States knows better

These people have a remarkable ability to be currently clean on opsec

Why, isn't it great that "no word from Russia" is now just a "minor detail"

Vance, Rubio, and Hegseth definitely need a 28-point plan to solve their senseless war that would have never happened if the US had proper leadership. If Dmitriev is willing to draft a new one, I volunteer to translate it from Russian and promise to do it better than Witkoff.

Having a bit of a moment in the White House.

Why are we still calling it a plan?

A barely competent government would be a nice thing to have, actually. Other countries have it, we might try as well.

Like clockwork