New It Could Happen Here The Arab Gulf States in the Line of Fire @danaelkurd.bsky.social @andrewleber.bsky.social linktr.ee/ICHHpod

Without regional cooperation, the United Arab Emirates “faces a future not of strategic autonomy as it craves but of dependence on political decisions made in the United States and Israel,” writes @andrewleber.bsky.social.

“As the country becomes less attractive to foreign investors and workers, Emirati officials and executives may seek out more extractive economic arrangements in places where the UAE has the leverage to drive a hard bargain, particularly in Africa.” - ✍️ @andrewleber.bsky.social

@andrewleber.bsky.social for @foreignaffairs.com on the Emirates' redoubled commitment to its relationships with the United States and Israel, and alienation from its Arab neighbors: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-arab-...

📢 Public good announcement : I’m releasing 3 R packages 📦 with data from the last 2 censuses in Tunisia 🇹🇳, including one with harmonized panel data (I’m using in my dissertation). Available on my GitHub. CRAN version upcoming. www.mohameddhiahammami.com/data

The Saudi monarchy seems to be rolling back – or outright abandoning – some of its most ambitious projects. Unless the state can ease up on repression at home, Vision 2030 risks stalling in the home stretch. @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Twitter's algorithms do terrible things to the mind but Bluesky's have turned it into an irrelevance... much to consider.

The ceasefire in Iran appears to be a step forward, but it hasn't brought the war to a close. @andrewleber.bsky.social weighed in.

For @thenation.com I look at why the Saudis are telling Trump to escalate from the sidelines, and what it says about the US-led security architecture in the Persian Gulf. With gratitude for insights from @andrewleber.bsky.social and @philbrickyadav.bsky.social. www.thenation.com/article/worl...

New publication! @govjournal.bsky.social Many authoritarian regimes seek mass support through policy perf. When do citizens respond? @andrewleber.bsky.social and @draege.bsky.social highlight the role of hist. legacies of development in labor-market views in Saudi Arabia doi.org/10.1111/gove...

I've mostly left this site but the idea MBS is pulling the strings here is such an amazingly crackpot theory I had to interject to say as such.

FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?

By a mostly party-line vote of 47 to 53 (Rand a yes, Fetterman a no), the Senate has failed take back authority over war. The mad king keeps getting to do what he wants! Still, this is no 2001 AUMF (98-0 in the Senate) or 2002 Iraq War AUMF (77-23 in the Senate). We're at the low ceiling of the war

"It is against this backdrop that Khamenei’s actions leading up to the American and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28 that cost him his life must be seen." @ericlob.bsky.social theconversation.com/ayatollah-al...

Wrote up initial observations on the war & what Pres. Trump called its "biggest surprise"* for @carnegieendowment.org *(it won't surprise you that he shouldn't have been surprised) carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

From Iranian journalist Akbar Ganji last year for @foreignaffairs.com on Khamenei and what comes next (1/2, gift links) www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

“The MESA/AAUP report documents in vivid detail the cost of both Biden’s and Trump’s weaponization of antidiscrimination law... The immediate victims are pro-Palestinian activists and critics of Israel. The ultimate victims will be everyone.” Important piece by Mohammed Fadel archive.ph/8tbOM

A surge of recent reporting about internal concerns over U.S. strikes on Iran: From NYT (2/22), per "officials with knowledge of the meeting," Trump's lack of a clear strategy and military officials' concerns about readiness & supplies. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/u...

My article with @andrewleber.bsky.social is out now in @govjournal.bsky.social! Evaluating Authoritarian Performance: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Attitudes in Saudi Arabia doi.org/10.1111/gove...

U.S. war on/with Iran looking v likely based on troop positioning, Trump's statements, lack of overlap in bargaining positions, and more. Decision-making is very much down to Trump himself, with his thinking heavily informed by a belief that his Middle East/military "gambles" have paid off before.

In a new article for @govjournal.bsky.social, @draege.bsky.social & I examine labor-market views in Saudi Arabia to argue that "historical legacies of development substantially affect perceptions of regime [policy] performance in the long run." [Open Access] onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

The other site is evil but it doesn't turn your brain into mush like this site seems to.

Thread of great coverage of MN

If you are in the DC area and interested in discussing US policy toward Iran (and related concerns) in on off-site/offline capacity DM/reach out!

Laissez les bons temps rouler ⚜️

Last week, the UAE hosted talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States. It’s the latest example of Gulf monarchies positioning themselves as important venues for diplomacy. But what do they get out of hosting talks like these? @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/U9qqE...

Spoke with @eoinhiggins.bsky.social for @eko.org about what the Clintons (and Tucker Carlson) are doing in Riyadh for a real estate conference: ekonews.substack.com/p/whats-saud...

Every Dem who voted for more ICE funding voted for this. Every pundit spinning reasons why ICE can't be abolished condones this. bringmethenews.com/minnesota-ne...

Gosh, the university funded by the Palantir exec turned out to be a right-wing infuence op rather than a paragon of free speech and open inquiry? www.politico.com/news/magazin...

At the end of 2025, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE came to a head over conflict in Yemen. What exactly happened, and what does it mean for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the region? @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/URKId...

Fun thing to publish right as we're kicking off the New New New Middle East Cold War

New Analysis on my Substack: I Detected Over 5,000 Bot-Like Accounts Amplifying UAE-Aligned STC Narratives in Southern Yemen open.substack.com/pub/marcowen...

Yemen’s civil war is back in the news. Why? @andrewleber.bsky.social unpacks what’s going on in Yemen (and beyond): youtube.com/shorts/sIQBF...

Our handbook has a page on the publisher site :) (Available open access! Dont mind the price!) www.bloomsbury.com/us/ib-tauris...

Looking for a short read on your commute home (at the intersection of IR theory and current events)? I wrote on international status and MBS' Washington visit for @carnegieendowment.org

Saudi Crown Price Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington yielded a few headline-grabbing deals. @andrewleber.bsky.social breaks down what changed – and what didn’t – for the U.S.-Saudi relationship this week: youtube.com/shorts/1pEJB...

Former Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers will step back from all public commitments in an effort “to rebuild trust and repair relationships with the people closest to me,” he wrote in a statement. Crimson News Staff report. www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

The emails have Summers reporting to Epstein about his attempts to date a Harvard economics student & to hit on her during a seminar she was giving.

With security cooperation with the U.S. and economic ties with China, do Gulf monarchies get the best of both worlds? @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: China’s manufacturing capacity and high-tech capabilities shape competition in the region. Full article: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Posting is correlated with affective polarization: 😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics 🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)

Join us next week! Tiffany Simon (@harvardkennedy.bsky.social) will present "Happiness as Control: The Political Consequences of Entertainment Policy in Saudi Arabia" and @andrewleber.bsky.social (@tulanepolisci.bsky.social) and @aasiegel.bsky.social (@colorado.edu) will discuss

In case of interest for anybody in the DC area

Initiatives like the Riyadh Comedy Festival aren’t helping Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman “clean up” his image abroad. But the kingdom’s international reputation isn’t its main priority here. @andrewleber.bsky.social, on @npr.org: www.npr.org/2025/10/04/n...

Two especially good bits ⬇️ What @andrewleber.bsky.social’s analysis captures, that much discourse around “-washing” events in the Gulf & beyond often neglects, are these domestic drivers. Not everything is done solely, or mainly, for an international gaze. Some risks are taken despite that gaze.

Dwayne has his job back because we organized for it. We fight or we die. Join AAUP today www.aaup.org/join

I looked at the domestic drivers of the Riyadh Comedy Festival for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

🚨🚨 My dear friend and fellow academic, the Palestinian American sociologist @emanabdelhadi.bsky.social has been taken by the Cook County Sheriff near Chicago. They have not mirandized her. Please signal boost. All eyes on Broadview for Eman and the community she was defending 🚨🚨

Speaking tomorrow with Elias Muhanna at Brown University on a panel about Gulf-monarchy "giga-projects," for anybody interested in stopping by. events.brown.edu/middle-east/...

"Perhaps the most ghastly piece printed during Hegseth’s reign as publisher was an assertion that Princeton’s characterization of sex with an unconscious person as nonconsensual was an effort to “indoctrinate” students." thebaffler.com/salvos/battl...

it's a great interview, and what's striking is that at the end of the day both klein and coates believe in winning people over. the difference is that coates thinks you do this by telling them the truth, and klein thinks you do it by empathizing with them and recognizing their concerns as Real