Told @esaagar and @krystalball: "If Trump really does not want war [with Iran], then he should not accept the premise of the Israeli position, because the Israeli premise is designed to get the US into war with Iran." www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi5C...

Told @aje that we don't know the validity of Iran's belief that it can inflict such damage on the US that a small war can lead to Trump dropping his maximalist positions. Hopefully, we will never need to find out if Tehran simply picks up the phone and calls Trump directly.

The primary audience for Iran's warnings is Trump himself - Tehran is trying to dispel Trump's sense that Iran is on the brink. Some in Tehran believe a small confrontation may be necessary to make Trump drop his maximalist demands and get him to negotiate more realistically.

Direct talks between Iranian officials and Trump himself may appear completely unrealistic, but some of the main turning points in the US-Iran drama were caused by moves that most believe were completely impossible. I don't see what the Iranian shave tolose by trying this card.

Told @AJEnglish that the most effective way to walk away from the precipice of war is for Tehran to talk directly to Trump - not to negotiate, but to defuse tensions and broaden the parameters for the negotiations.

Some thoughts re the state of US-Iran talks... Neither the US nor Iran is pursuing a diplomatic strategy that is likely to succeed, though both sides overall prefer to avoid war. >>

So @shadihamid is a great guy, but we have a disagreement on American power (his new book is titled The Case for American Power). We hash it out on the Disagreement Podcast. I think it ended up being more entertaining than either of us had expected :) substack.com/@thedisagree...

"Israel Hayom, the daily closest to the Israeli government, reported that Jordan, the UAE and the UK would provide logistical and intelligence support to the US military in the event of an attack [on Iran]." www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iran...

The same people who say that Iran will not become Syria are literally demanding the same things that will ensure that Iran becomes Syria...

Turkish FM Hakan Fidan cautions against US-Iran. "Iran is ready to negotiate, but you need to find a way to negotiate in the right way. If they feel cornered, they will prepare for the worst-case scenario." True, but Iran also needs to speak directly to Trump himself.

Ugly - and frankly embarrassing - scenes continue to take place at protests outside of Iran where various Iranian opposition groups end up using violence against each other. It's not clear who started this specific fight, but it's clear that this isn't the path to democracy...

WOW! At the Israeli-American Council, Miriam Adelson is asked how she is buying influence over American politicians. "Can you allow me not to answer? ... I want to be truthful, and there are so many things I don't want to talk about."

Iran's neighbors lobbied Trump against war because they fear destabilization, including secessionist movements that would endanger their own interests. But they might not be able to stop Trump a second time - his military mobilization may create a momentum of its own.

Told @cnn that Trump has taken a step back from war with Iran for now. But we are seeing significant assets being brought to the region, signalling that Trump is preparing for a larger attack than we saw in June 2025.

Had the JCPOA been kept, the Iranian economy would be in a completely different state today, and the power of society vis-à-vis would have been much more favorable, enabling the people to push for change, not out of desperation, but from a position of strength.

Told @AliVelshi that the Iranian government's repression and inflexibility have in the past 20 years - combined with US sanctions designed to destroy the economy - made Iranians so desperate that unimaginable options (i.e foreign military intervention) are now presented to them as the only option.

Like clockwork: As soon as war becomes the most likely outcome, WSJ runs an oped (the first of many, presumably) arguing that: >>> www.wsj.com/opinion/a-fr...

“The most likely scenario is that there is another variation of the regime, through elements from within the same regime,” Parsi said. “It’s one thing to decapitate the top leadership. The security establishment is a different matter.” edition.cnn.com/2026/01/16/m...

This was Jan 13, Amir Avivi, chairman of@idsfisrael speaks of the impending attack on Iran "with Israeli support." The idea that Israel lobbied against Trump attacking is laughable.

“[Pahlavi] is really struggling to win Trump’s approval... but it doesn’t seem to be working,” said Parsi. “He’s trying to get support from the US because he’s not trying to do a revolution from below, but to get installed from above." apnews.com/article/iran...

I am extremely skeptical of the narrative that Netanyahu last-minute pushed Trump to postpone the strikes. It appears to serve the purpose of preventing the diverging interests of the US and Israel from coming to light. Sustain an appearance that Trump and Netanyahu are on the exact same page.

Trump says that the US has "been told that the killing in Iran is stopping, it has stopped. There is no plan for executions. I have been told that, we will find out about it."

Quincy Institute's @tparsi.bsky.social joined @deanobeidallah.bsky.social, delivering analysis of the Iranian protests and the instability of the government. LISTEN: siriusxm.us/Dean

On Israeli media, they speak openly about bombing Iran AFTER the regime falls: "Do you remember what happened 20 mins after Assad fled ot Russia? Israel turned Syria into one big shooting range." This is the state the monarchists are pinning Iran's future to...

Told @FRANCE24 that when we zoom out and look at the evolution of protests in Iran over the course of the past 20 years, we can see a dramatic radicalization, which ultimately is a reaction to continued repression and the failure to deliver change. www.france24.com/en/absence-o...

Excellent and timely insights shared by @vali_nasr, @mashabani, and Ellie Geranmayeh on @QuincyInst's webinar today about the protests in Iran, whether the Islamic Republic will fall, the impact of Trump's threats, and potential exit ramps. www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHRh...

Professors Kamrava, Farmanfarmaian, and I broke down the latest developments in Iran on @AJEnglish's @AJInsideStory: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAoV...

By @paveldevyatkin: "Instead of threatening force or coercion, Washington should focus on deals that benefit both sides and respect Greenland’s right to govern itself. That means treating Greenland’s government as a partner, not a prize." responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-greenl...

MUST READ! Just as the US violates Venezuelan sovereignty, erodes the norm against the use of force, and leaves many with the impression that international law is useless, @LexIntl_org publishes a report that documents the tremendous value of international law: >>

The self-vassalization of Europe appears to have reached its completion, with government officials proudly acting as exemplary vassals.

You all should read the @QuincyInst's statement on the US's military action in Venezuela: quincyinst.org/2026/01/04/q...

"You don't sound like you're speaking for an important country, you sound like you're speaking on behalf of a supplicant country who’s afraid of a bigger country.’ @Lewis_Goodall tears Labour’s Darren Jones apart on the UK's utter spinelessness on Venezuela.

Prediction: When Trump takes Greenland, many Global South countries will return the favor to Europe by issuing statements declaring that they are "monitoring the situation" but "now is not the time to discuss the legality of the action"... Europe will reap what it has sown.

Last month, Trump published his NSS, writing that the US should adopt a "predisposition to non-interventionism." This morning, he tweeted that the US will come "to the rescue" of Iranian protesters if they are shot at. >>

Israel becomes the first country in the world to ban the humanitarian organization Doctors Without Borders. Let that sink in. File under "Things you do when you are committing genocide"... www.nbcnews.com/world/israel...

Did a longer interview with @Indiagloballeft on Israel's push for another war with Iran Netanyahu Pressures Trump for War on Iran | Trita Parsi on Israel, Iran & the Middle East www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4DY...

As Netanyahu comes to DC to sell another war, the question is whether Trump will cave once more to Israel. His base opposes war, while some key donors favor it. But donors can't win the midterms. Turnout will be key, and to get folks out to vote will require that Trump isn't too far from his base.

In Lebanon & Gaza, Israel resisted a ceasefire for months. With Iran, Israel requested a ceasefire after 9 days due to the pain Iran's missiles inflicted. This is precisely why Netanyahu is likely to restart the war - he can't tolerate that the outcome of his war is mutual deterrence.

Trump did not obliterate the Iranian nuclear program, but he obliterated the little confidence Tehran had in diplomacy. Restarting talks will be very difficult. Yet, absent diplomacy and a deal, war will become increasingly likely, particularly as Israel keeps pushing for it.

Spoke to @AJEnglish about the tough year Iran has had in 2025 - from geopolitical setbacks to domestic challenges, many of which cannot be resolved absent a resolution to Iran's external problems.

Life in Europe has turned into a Kafka novel... Police: If you are in support of Palestine, then you are breaching conditions & you can be arrested. Protester: And if we are in support of Israel, we can stay? Police: Yes. Yes.

Turkey's former FM: "Israel is attempting to establish a hegemonic order stretching from the Caspian to Aden, from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf. This development also clearly reveals that the so-called Abraham Accords are, at their core, an imperialist project..." x.com/A_Davutoglu_...

Told @AJEnglish Israel's push for more US war w/ Iran directly contradicts Trump's NSS, which says US focus on the region "will recede." “Well, then, recede,” Parsi said “If they don’t want Israel to start that war, tell Israel, ‘Don’t start that war'" www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12...

An obvious lie, but the question is why Israeli accounts suddenly want to spread lies about this specific issue? They seem to be panicking over how Conservative Christians are turning against Israel's genocide, its treatment of Christians - and how it drags the US into wars. x.com/raz_sauber_/...

The most innocent of moments - a young Palestinian girl filming herself showing her hair clips - is interrupted by Israeli missiles. Yes, they shoot missiles at kids in tents. Don't tell me it's complicated Jana and her brother survived, but the rest of their family was killed

On this Christmas Day, Israeli press reports that Georgetown has cut ties with Franceska Albanese after a campaign by a pro-Apartheid, pro-Genocide org specializing in canceling critics of Israel. They can't win a single argument, so they rely on silencing people. www.jpost.com/diaspora/ant...

Ex-senior army officers urge UK to 'cut all military collaboration with Israel' Former servicemen call on Keir Starmer to suspend all involvement with Israel-linked defence firms 'to avoid the charge of complicity' www.middleeasteye.net/news/former-...

Israel is throwing everything at the wall, hoping that one of its pretexts to drag the US into another war will stick. It's now claiming Iran's missile drill could be a cover for an attack on Israel. Anything to get the US into war... www.axios.com/2025/12/21/i...

Lindsay Graham goes on Israeli TV to show how well he's memorized Israeli talking points. Recently, Israel has shifted its messaging from targeting Iran's nuclear program to targeting Iran's missile program. And Graham quickly changes his talking points to mirror Israel's...

If there only was a word for a governing system in which one set of laws applied to people of a specific race, and a completely different and much harsher set of laws applied to those of another race... www.cbc.ca/news/world/i...