Stephen Miran (2024), one of Trump's econ advisors and tariff advocate, warned us. Unless tariffs come in "coordination" with allies and the Fed, expect "adverse" material consequences. Guess what. There is no coordination. Instead, allies are targetted, and the Fed, bypassed. Result: Turmoil

Trump is talking about a third term. Hmm. What do we know about presidents who defy constitutional term limits in Latin America? The typical path: they become dictators (Chávez, Ortega, Bukele, Fujimori). Another path: bring on the chaos (Zelaya, Morales, Fujimori, Lugo).

And just like that, the U.S. is now on Russia's side.

Firings this past weekend in the United States: Massive enough to weaken govt services but too tiny to make a dent on the the national debt (it's like seeking to pay your mortgage with a bake sale).

All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes Trump has already checked off.

Donald Trump to halt enforcement of law banning bribery of foreign officials. The mafia is now in charge.

In Argentina 2007, there were signs of autocratic populism when the government began to intervene economic agencies to manipulate inflation figures, as cover up. Similar type of autocratic creeping in the US now www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/o...

Ecuador elections: Noboa narrowly beats González. 2nd round required. The fact that it was a close win is a perfect illustration of key polarizations in LatAm (emphasis on plural).

The Trump Doctrine: for my trade partners, sanctions. For autocrats, let’s make a deal (no worries, we won’t talk human rights).

I study the rise of autocracy in Ven and Nic. Key reason autocracy went far: bureaucratic capturing. Presidents colonized state agencies. If you were not loyal to the president, as a civil servant you were fired, demoted, defunded. Feels like Trump read my book. www.brookings.edu/books/autocr...

www.journalofdemocracy.org/last chance to read Jan 2025 issue for free. Check out my co-authored essay on Ven’s stolen elections

The transfer = one of the most successful stories of decolonization. Transfer prevented Pan from becoming another Cuba, Vietnam, or war-torn country. Pan manages the canal professionally. Result: peace, democracy, prosperity, pro US orientation, and low migration. Win win for both Pan and the US.

The economy is booming, inflation and unemployment are low, crime rates are declining, we are at peace, he controls congress, and Trump is thinking of declaring a natl emergency and issuing 100 executive orders.

Honestly, this kind of open corruption would be striking even in Latin America. I think Americans are just not used to doing corruption quite like that, so they have no decorum. 1/

Different institutions + different type of president-party relationship —> different outcomes. www.nytimes.com/2025/01/16/w...

As promised. New article. How do we know Maduro lost the election? The voting system that Chávez put in place and Maduro kept in place actually proved it. With Dorothy Kronick!

Latino MAGAs, you wanted a tough guy. Look what you are getting.

It is amazing how US society is quickly adopting characteristics of societies living under autocrats.

Putin is about to lose Syria. His allies in Gaza, Lebanon, Venezuela are badly wounded. The war in Ukraine is too costly. His only consolation prize in 2024: his candidate won the presidency in the US (though not by much).

Yes, just run the cartel yourself

Textbook example of backsliding. Backsliding in the 21st c is never an on-off switch. It’s a gradual erosion of checks and balance institutions. Justifiers invoked are also typical: ending waste, needing to prioritize other objectives. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/1...

NAFTA was created in the early 1990s to prevent future populists in Mexico from ever disengaging from sensible economic policies. It has done that. Who knew it would need to be used to contain crazy populists in the US (again).