Over on Twitter, Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam just called the rocket fire from southern Lebanon “an irresponsible and suspicious act” that gave Israel a pretext to attack. Adds “we will take all necessary measures to stop the perpetrators and protect the Lebanese people.”

Iran has a great many Mandelas and Walesas. Most of them are in a prison that Israel bombed back in July.

Probably an unpopular take, but I read the Canadian-European-UK alignment on not getting in the way of US-Israel regime change in Iran as 1) an indicator of everyone hates the Iranian regime 2) an indicator of who they expect to win the war, and fast

I can't find *any* Guy Maddin gifs on here

At a certain point you just cannot keep extending someone the benefit of the doubt. www.yahoo.com/news/article...

A fun way to spend Sunday is re-reading the National Security Strategy that was released...three months ago

It's a good thing China and North Korea don't exist. That could be really bad.

this was called a flagrant 1 smh

I missed this two days ago, but the FBI was able to get a Russian man arrested in Colombia on suspicion of plotting the murder of what sound like Russian dissidents in Europe: www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr... and full indictment here: www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/me...

This is truly offensive

perhaps the thing that most annoys me is how credulous so many reporters & analysts are about trump's 'decision making' or 'strategy' or even 'policy', or the administration's 'process'. none of this is real. none of it ordinary. it's opaque & driven by ego & self-gain. little more than that.

By 2030, academic estimates worry about as 14 million excess deaths as a result of these global health cuts.

A short list of pre-existing ethnic separatist movements in Iran: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurge... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdish... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_se... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbai...

This administration is not interested in the liberation of anyone foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/24/t...

Instead, Trump used federal regulators to pressure CNN’s owners to sell to an oligarch loyal to Trump. My apologies. bsky.app/profile/ande...

One way to think about this, like Ukraine, is that Turkey's main geopolitical asset is its geography--which is also its main geopolitical weakness

Some immediate thoughts on possible implications of the current US/Israel-Iran war for Turkey: 1) For Turkey, the security and economic risks of a prolonged war are significant. These include rising energy prices amid ongoing domestic economic fragility, potential declines in tourism revenues,

getting so many messages on WhatsApp from well-meaning contacts with poor media literacy, containing links to completely bogus videos on X, showing Tel Aviv and Haifa in ruins

Jfc

Tbh I am disconcerted by this meeting so far. The US’s violation of the charter is red letter, blazing, clear as day. Many of the US’s allies are mentioning it in passing. I suspect they wont like what follows from signaling they are less committed to the UN charter than they are to countering Iran

There is already a sizable Iranian diaspora now in Istanbul and should there be protracted violence, or instability, major Iranian refugee influx to Turkey is inevitable. For comparison, Iran's population is roughly 2.9x Ukraine and 3.7x Syria.

On the left: Trump tells Axios U.S. military action could end quickly and then resume if Iran starts rebuilding it nuclear and missile programs On the right: Trump tells Washington Post, U.S. military action is about freedom for the Iranian people/regime change

A book everyone should read

The refugee spillover from Iran is about to grow enormously

Two regime change efforts in two months that appear to be at least partialy justified by 2020 election claims.

From our team in the Middle East: As Israeli airstrikes hit Tehran this morning, millions of Iranians received mysterious push notifications saying that “help is on the way”, promising amnesty if they surrender. wrd.cm/4l0QScB

In Now You See Me: Now You Don't there is a throwaway line where they call it "the Orlando of the Middle East" and it is devastating

Strong callback here for those who know

Turkey is going to do it's best to stick with regional partners, I think, especially the Saudis. It won't actively support the US, neither will it risk antagonizing Trump. It's biggest fear: prolonged instability and a new refugee crisis.

The correct acronym is FDD

It is surreal that we are still locked in the never-ending debate over whether military intervention on behalf of democracy and human rights is good, when the current administration has been extremely explicit they are not intervening on behalf of democracy and human rights

Hahahaha this is too much

As @mattduss.bsky.social pointed out here, we had a State of the Union *four days ago* and Trump barely mentioned the country he was about to start a war with!

My team has been digging into their reactions for CASI. This on Midnight Hammer, for instance: www.airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/Display...

Is anybody good writing about what China is taking from all this, and how it aligns/doesn't align with the purges of the PLA?

In answer to some queries: this is not a joke, Melania Trump actually is presiding over a UN Security Council meeting Monday, and apparently they scheduled that knowing they were going to launch an illegal war on Saturday morning

Ten day special military operation

Tapping the sign foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/24/t...

The speed of this is just unfathomable. Venezuela was 2 months ago (and it was the same carrier, the Ford, involved in that). Cannot think of anything like it. Others can speak to degradation of readiness elsewhere but logically must be a worry. 5/

"Let them eat liver"

#BreakingNews: Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey will introduce the Securing Help for Immigrants through Education and Legal Development (SHIELD) Act, legislation to strengthen legal representation for immigrants and uphold due process, nationwide. @npnewamericans.bsky.social

JUST IN: A federal judge says the Trump administration has been “terrorizing” refugees — violating the promise America made to them when they fled persecution at home — by locking them up illegally. He blocked the policy for those in MN storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Since last year's purge of the BIA, there has been a grand total of one single precedential decision which has gone in favor of the immigrant. One. The entire system is now biased dramatically in favor of ICE and the removal process. The whole thing is rigged, through and through.

Begging folks to recognize when they are being called the adversary

Interesting reporting on Trump, Sudan, and the Saudi/UAE feud. Gift link www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/w...

so where does the next generation of talent come from? who are the young journalists, and how are they paid? every career incentive, both economic and prestige-wise, now points to the olivia nuzzi route

what the nonprofit prestige journalism model + the infinite substacks model does is pay for: - talented people who already did their apprenticeship years in a newsroom model that is becoming defunct - people with recognizable Names the venn diagram does overlap but not completely.

Re-reading something I wrote in September about the US Democratic Party and Turkey's CHP