The EU’s steel tariffs seem to be straight from the Trump playbook: start ridiculously high then negotiate down to something slightly less crazy. Apart from the dubious precedent, let’s see how the EU machine copes with “Art of the deal” policy making. @ec.europa.eu

Rereading @drodrik.bsky.social book Straight Talk about Trade from 2018. If it was relevant in 2018 then it’s even more so now. His thesis that over dogmatic defence of free trade has damaged its attraction is right, though that’s been reinforced by a decade of undue criticism.

Hoping to crowd source my briefing on pharma tariffs for a visit to the US next week. What do people think it means for UK businesses exporting to the US/ EU businesses doing likewise. My recollection is that EU agreement capped pharma tariffs. @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social @davidheniguk.bsky.social

Oh good, the FT has @inumanak.bsky.social trying to balance out the nonsense about a new US led trading order. Or indeed deglobalisation. Or the many other fashionable arguments about trade that aren't in fact happening.

Interesting article in @thetimes.com suggesting HMT want to narrow list of protected species and change the precautionary principle, in both cases diverging from EU law, to make infrastructure projects easier. I recall then CSA saying UK approach to precautionary principle bound to diverge from EU.

“US and EU close in on 15% tariff agreement” @financialtimes.com I look forward to all those people who excoriated the UK US deal as unprincipled, contrary to WTO rules and generally pathetic saying the same about this one, if it happens.

“a proposal to offer a credit based on the US content of a [car] company’s exports from the US that can then be applied to the content that it is importing.” EU/US trade negotiations @financialtimes.com Almost as nutty as the UK/EU deal on RoO on EVs, which exploded on contact with reality.

My letter in @financialtimes.com Thanks to my time at the UK IP Office, I hope I can contribute to the current debate on copyright and AI !

“Octopus boss says net zero is in trouble — but he has a solution” The problem is - to the man (literally) on the Clapham Omnibus - that zonal pricing sounds like making energy more expensive in London. I haven’t read anything yet which explains why not. www.thetimes.com/article/a2a4...

If I was the US I would be concerned about Tata importing steel from India, where it is no doubt less expensive to produce, into the UK and then exporting it to the US after some reworking tariff free under an FTA. Minimum pricing, anyone ?

'From Hadestown to Hercules: ancient myths are the gods’ gift to musicals'

I see @thetimes.com has corrected in its online version the unfortunate para in its published paper stating that Tata Steel is owned by the Chinese. Still, these foreign companies, they’re all the same I guess

“Out of Africa” - Sun headline on England v Senegal. They have some classicists in the @thesun.co.uk headline writers !

I’m not sure why there is such wailing and gnashing of teeth that US hedge funds, tech and quantum computing companies are investing in the UK. I note Hermann Hauser supported one of the takeovers. The UK doesn’t have the scale of the US and should be open to foreign investment.

Some key points from fascinating lecture on econ nationalism by @robertfalkner.bsky.social @lseevents.bsky.social tonight: eg - for a period in 1990s/2000s the US (as hegemon) stopped caring about the power gap with rivals - now it does, which will prevent return to multilateral liberal order

Fascinating talk by @robertfalkner.bsky.social @lseevents.bsky.social about econ nationalism tonight. Not much good news for @wto.org however: “dead in the water on DS”; “no future for multilat negs”. If you’re thinking of working there, don’t ! Wd love to see debate with @noiweala.bsky.social !

Very happy to agree with you on this one @alanbeattie.bsky.social ! “It’s always steel: Trump turns to a familiar weapon” digitaleditionapp.ft.com/i9DX/ze3vfvi7

“Ok here’s the deal : you let us off the 50% steel levies and we’ll let you sell British Steel to the Japanese.”

@alanbeattie.bsky.social surely time for your next instalment of “what is US trade policy - nobody knows” (cont p 94)

Imagine you are @marossefcovic.bsky.social Do you listen to @ignaciobercero.bsky.social (do a mini deal with the US, ignoring the 10% tariffs) or @alanbeattie.bsky.social (hold out against a weak deal) ? Dilemmas @financialtimes.com today.

No 10 briefing machine hitting gold with UK citizens allowed to use EU e gates. A smart move by the EU as increasingly it came across as the EU being bolshy for no good reason.

Mountains has been written about the UK/EU reset but yet to see anything which proposes material improvements to what the UK Govt wants without cutting explicitly or implicitly across red lines. You can debate their wisdom, but joining a club where everyone but you sets the rules is not a free hit.

@samuelmarclowe.bsky.social your time has come (again); “Rules of origin is a big deal for the US,” @financialtimes.com

I guess the modern version of the Melian dialogues would start with the Athenians saying “you don’t hold many cards”; and would involve a junior member of the delegation castigating the Melians for failing to thank Athens for saving them from the Persians. @hellenicsociety.bsky.social

Yes the multilateral trading system is in trouble, but let’s focus on the causes - multiple assaults by different countries over many years - not symptoms such as the US UK trade deal. My letter to the @financialtimes.com

It appears @borderlex.net only employs commentators who write negative things about UK trade policy !

Can’t neglect my @bsky.app account (hard work these days) to post my take on the UK/India deal. TLDR: it’s worthwhile deal; crystallised by Trump tariffs; and throwing domestic politics into some confusion www.pagefield.co.uk/news-insight...

With apologies to Michel Barnier and inspiration from the art work of @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social here is a UK official’s slide ready for the forthcoming negotiations between the EU and CPTPP

“EU revisits Indo-Pacific trade bloc alliance” @FT Presumably the same people who said it was pointless for the UK to join #CPTPP will also say it is pointless for the EU to spend time negotiating an agreement with it…

Great event at a highly topical time. Well done @ippr.bsky.social

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The PM’s speech paves the way for the nationalisation of @BritishSteelUK. Maybe worthwhile if it can be made viable and resold as per @rollsroycegroup.bsky.social

It’s 9am TFT time here, and citizens are already gathering to protest Tariffs by the United States. Our plain clothes Officer Penguins are attempting to maintain calm, but unfortunately we keep losing them in the crowd.

Back in the Brexit day I recall discussions in Government where we in the trade Department were being told that tariffs didn’t matter and were unimportant in negotiations by those who wanted the UK in a CU with the EU. Happy days…

US #tariffs: the OBR forecasts 20% tariffs will reduce UK goods exports to the US by 8%. That would mean the total UK exports (goods and services) to the US going from around £180bn a year to £175bn. Will that cause major impact to the UK ? No. How others react is more important.

What the @OBR_UK analysis of economic effect of tariffs shows is that the UK needs to pay as much attention to how other countries retaliate (or not) as to its own goods trade with the US - ie scenario 3 below (20% tariffs on all US imports plus retaliation). Alliances are key.

We’re hearing lots about how cars are our biggest export to the US, and it’s true that they and pharma are our two biggest goods exports. But they are dwarfed by our financial services exports (£29bn to end Q2 2024 vs cars £7.5bn). Insurance £11.5bn, telecoms and IT £8.8bn.

'Enchanting Northumberland hall that's like 'being in Ancient Greece' pulls in 102,000 visitors' 🏺 #AncientBluesky #ClassicsBluesky

Wow. I hadn’t realised that levels of sensitivity on @bsky.app approximated to “safe spaces” in universities. Perhaps I’ll go back to X.

Great for Reform, if that’s what you want.

Martin Wolf @financialtimes.com “Moreover, such a [50% across the board] tariff could also improve the US terms of trade, by lowering the relative prices of imports.” ‘Lowering’? I’m really struggling here. Help me trade economists.

Kelly, however, called the [NI tariff rebate] scheme “nonsense”, saying it was full of red tape and “very few companies have been able to successfully navigate it”. @FT. This was the tariff regime envisaged for the whole of the UK under Theresa May.

What’s good for Tesla is good for America - oh wait…..

“Another Starmer promise was a 25% reduction in administrative burdens – with echoes of a very similar exercise in the mid-2000s.” Yes, and as the then DG “owner” of the largest admin burden in Govt (labour law, consumer law, company law), we managed to cut 25% off the baseline. Digitisation helped.

'Historic First: Ancient Greek Tragedy Hippolytus to Debut at Hong Kong Arts Festival'

I realize now that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico were part of a cunning plan to create a sectoral US/Canada/Mexico FTA for cars in a way which wouldn’t fall foul of WTO rules, like the first attempt some 40 years ago did. Only a genius could have come up with that !

I thought @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social summarised what we know about a US/UK trade deal well on Today this morning. UK will be looking for a relatively narrow deal (with US/Japan as a model in concept if not scope), but who knows what US will want !

A triumph of hope over expectation !