This week's MFN is about telling Trump you're going to do things, not doing them, and then hoping he doesn't notice. mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/strategic-...

Something anyone who has every had a toxic boss will recognise as an essential skill.

Asks the question of whether the third country approach to Trump's trade deals of sign and not implement is wise given what will happen after this administration. My first take is that because they aren't legally binding on the US then others will just renounce then renegotiate.

This week's MFN is about telling Trump you're going to do things, not doing them, and then hoping he doesn't notice. mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/strategic-...

Genuinely what are you meant to do with kids when the weather is like this

Where do parents find the time to parent? Less sleep, work and screens. Amazing chart feat. in @alphaville.ft.com Further Reading. homeeconomics.substack.com/p/where-do-p...

I give you the youngest’s requested meal this evening: bread bun (no butter), tuna (specifically not in bun), raspberries, red pepper.

Peas and cornflakes. New parenting low point: unlocked.

Very good summary

As I get older I am increasingly convinced of one thing: we must get rid of Stonehenge

So let's get this straight. You "lost" your ring when metals prices were at a historic high and "found" it again after they had plunged. Sell high, buy low. There's no shame in shorting your wedding ring, Sam. Put the profits in Junior ISAs for the kids and tell them the story when they've grown up.

Update: Found it!

The EU is now going after Goldwind, the Chinese windmill maker, on the basis of its foreign subsidies regulation. In-depth investigation, following information gathering after April 2024. ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

Cool post

For reasons unknown, I’ve spent much of the last week thinking about economic security … and drawing charts. More here: open.substack.com/pub/mostfavo...

For reasons unknown, I’ve spent much of the last week thinking about economic security … and drawing charts. More here: open.substack.com/pub/mostfavo...

Rooting for Spurs [in this one specific instance] is *so* stressful

@joshualowe.bsky.social ahahaha

Here's a link to my Book Talk with @explaintrade.com about "Why Politicians Lie About Trade." We talked about the politics of trade; the global trading system and its institutions, trade and the issues of development, climate change and much more. Check it out! quincyinst.org/events/book-...

**retreats back to irrelevance**

Scenes.

This week’s MFN is about, well, Greenland and whether Trump could slap tariffs on some EU member states but not others. (TL;DR: yes.) mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/greenland

This week’s MFN is about, well, Greenland and whether Trump could slap tariffs on some EU member states but not others. (TL;DR: yes.) mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/greenland

“If you let me drown you would be bad at your job and be put in jail” — My 5yo daughter to her swimming teacher

Start the day as you mean to go on. (By accidentally calling Jamieson Greer “Germaine” Greer live on the BBC.) From around 4 mins 30: youtu.be/-v1y8fXJyc8?...

Among the many examples of US tariffs being applied to a single member state, here was the US applying trade defence tariffs to olives from Spain: www.wto.org/english/trat...

Also, anti-dumping/countervailing duties. Tariffs on specific EU member states is standard there.

GLWT

Back when I was one of the few people outside of Scandinavia with an interest in Greenland …

EU ambassadors have been summoned to an emergency meeting in Brussels on Sunday over Greenland and U.S. tariff threats.-Reuters

EPP chair Manfred Weber says EP will not approve EU US tariff deal "The EPP is in favour of the EU–U.S. trade deal, but given Donald Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, approval is not possible at this stage. The 0% tariffs on U.S. products must be put on hold."

I guess I was kind of missing working on a Saturday evening

Threatening tariffs is arguably a bit of a climb down, right?

That’s some timing…

Can the US impose tariffs on some members of the EU and not others? Yes (and there is precedent). Would those tariffs be difficult to enforce? Also yes.

Obviously this may never happen (still waiting for the Iran-related tariffs from last week) but targeting individual EU members, rather than the whole EU, would be a new departure. Indeed, as @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social keeps saying, the surprise is he hasn’t done it earlier.

Here we here we here we go …

Picked a truly excellent moment to lose, and thus need to replace, my wedding ring. www.cnbc.com/2026/01/14/s...

Update on South Korea’s trade minister Yeo Han-koo meeting U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa on American tech companies, including Coupang:

Morning.

New: EU Commission has issued guidance for Chinese EV exporters on what is acceptable in price undertaking offers. Comes after VW Anhui made a deal of its own to escape tariffs Includes minimum import price, sales channels, cross-compensation and future investments in the EU

Heading to Paris to check in on the farmers

Many people are saying this.

I would simply make the interest rate for my mortgage low and the interest rate for my savings high

China's car exports to Europe rose by 26% year on year in Jan-Nov 2025 • Data show how EU tariffs did not produce plunge in EU imports of Chinese-made cars • Chinese hybrid cars do not face tariffs, possibly explaining steep rise in EU imports of such vehicles www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

MFN is back with a bang! (Yes, I am talking about EU-UK electric vehicle rules of origin, obviously.) mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/ev-rules-o...

Winning or losing at parenting? Unclear.

Today in things I have said a million times before, but are now sanctified by appearing against a salmon-colored backdrop, here is an LTE about how America's real problem is not trade but its inability to fix its most problematic nontradeable sectors. www.ft.com/content/5959...

MFN is back with a bang! (Yes, I am talking about EU-UK electric vehicle rules of origin, obviously.) mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/ev-rules-o...

Morning.