Another 232 investigation open.substack.com/pub/monapaul...

Good morning! Happy Canada Day! US-Canada markets remain highly interdependent, making relations a bit love/hate over the years. I don't think Canadians take issue with the updates, but tariffs and discriminatory demands have stirred up a lot of ill will. www.theglobeandmail.com/world/us-pol...

This is just one guy's experience, but I have now seen several dozen posts angrily defending air conditioning and zero (0) posts from people who are against it. Where are all these anti-AC folks we're supposed to be mad at? Seriously asking.

Dear EU, The US has a problem with our digital services tax?

The short essay below seeks to offer an early account, one element of, a deeper institutional story about the dynamics between the IMF and GATT (which later feed into the WTO/IMF coordination). ielp.worldtradelaw.net/2026/06/a-la...

ICYMI a new dispute poses to revive competing, albeit legitimate objectives: self-sufficiency and climate adaptation.

I've had a few people ask me what this means in non-academic terms. Here goes, with the help of my non-academic partner. The brief history highlights a discrepancy of control concerning actions that can greatly shape global trade. Do not depend on a backstop that you cannot control. Have control.

I guess I could have made this less academic-y and just said the history explains that if you put the enforcement over exchange controls in the IMF’s hands, and then you control the IMF, then you’ve preserved a vital pathway for controlling global trade.

New from me: A law of many meanings: Exchange Actions under the #GATT and IMF. The blog explains that the IMF held competence and enforcement powers over exchange actions and that, therefore, the GATT deferred to its recommendations. ielp.worldtradelaw.net/2026/06/a-la...

New from me: ielp.worldtradelaw.net/2026/06/a-la...

Real talk: If one country produces cheap solar panels that could offset EC electricity demands, is that bad? Why can't countries focus on developing innovative refrigerant solutions and standard setting practices while working with China's renewable energy supply?

As I sit here grading exams (still), it occurs to me that many students (but I will stretch this to include a broader group) may see security and trade interests as counterweights, when one is on, the other is off – at least, in terms of government imperatives.

Exclusive: Japan threatens to sue EU over steel quota cuts "If Tokyo goes ahead, it will be the first time a country has sued the EU for breach of a free trade agreement." 

With my children's school offering optional pickup at 14.00, we will now see a true class divide: those whose parents love their children and those who love their office's aircon.

At a Brexit reflection meeting, a wise colleague provocatively challenged the meeting's premise, suggesting the UK go "all in" on the US trade strategy. At a basic level, could that work for two states with incongruent views on the rule of law for development?

Make school year round or offer universal free child care. Problem solved. Wait, screen time is still a problem, right?

Ya'll, look I cannot predict the future, and certainly more volatile and extraordinary trade actions have been taken in the past few years...but I implore you to realise that whatever the President says, the Detroit-Windsor corridor says otherwise. Not to mention oil imports... and its alot.

On X (yes, ick I know), Brad Setser reflected on @davidheniguk.bsky.social question: can you really "restore" competitiveness through protectionism? Most economists, heck, most average people know the answer is: Not in the long run. And I wanted to unpack some of Brad's rebuttal here. Mini thread.

On X (yes, ick I know), Brad Setser reflected on @davidheniguk.bsky.social question: can you really "restore" competitiveness through protectionism? Most economists, heck, most average people know the answer is: Not in the long run. And I wanted to unpack some of Brad's rebuttal here. Mini thread.

Whirlpool spent decades lobbying for tariffs to shield it from import competition. Now, tariffs have helped to crater its earnings, force layoffs, and tank its stock. As Scott Lincicome explains, this is par for the protectionist course: https://ow.ly/Ec6C50ZcIGT

Bollucks

Maybe it is not an MFN problem. Maybe it is an arbitrariness problem.

An excellent response from Simon on the proposed European 301 that helps us dissect its architecture and design.👇🏻

On the Trump administration's proposed forced labor tariffs: "If the United States is serious about the moral outrage of forced labor, it should address practices at home and work with foreign countries, including through technical assistance to developing countries in need of enforcement capacity"

As I testified to the EU Parliament (and from my work), I’d rather see the EU work with partners to design a new safeguards instrument that mitigates economic security risks, rather than a protectionist tool that does little to address ROW consequences. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Japan is moving with unusual speed to deepen defense partnerships across the Indo-Pacific following the easing of military export restrictions, with Indonesia emerging as one of the clearest beneficiaries.

knock, knock, who's there? EU/UK opportunity to show cooperation and leadership. www.ft.com/content/5902...

Sharing my letter, published @financialtimes.com, in response to the ever-generous @soumayakeynes.ft.com (go read her new book!) op-ed last week on why Europe needs tariffs. My bottom line: Why and how go hand in hand. Tariffs are not credible commitments, but rules are. www.ft.com/content/2e26...

I remember reading Fast Food Nation and cannot wonder if there are lessons in contrast to the rise of LLMs.

Some Blog Housekeeping Matters: Comments and Emails

I may have more to say, or less, or just this: Reading does not need a short cut. Notes do not need to be easy. Writing is thinking and both are hard. Personality shapes tone. No one needs all the answers first go. Learn from failures. Change your mind. Be creative and play. Focus. Use your hands.

Either the increased tariffs are legitimately justified restrictions that nevertheless violate ART terms or they are perpetual leverage regardless of agreed upon ART terms. Former, see why need neutral review, and if latter, ART fails. Subjective intentions of an official irrelevant to both.

UK to challenge EU over ‘devastating’ plans for new tariff-free steel import quotas

Epic post. Such a terrific, free service from my friend, Simon! Sign up to his subscriptions services now! (Now I’m justified to post my 4500 words on security exceptions for supply of dual use products?!)

Interesting to see how bans on US alcohol impact USMCA negotiations. On one hand, consumer choice is good. My very informal polling in my trade law class suggests most people care. On the other, if US booze comes in, consumer preferences may not change that much, at least not in the short term.

So, the outcome of the Section 301 investigation is out. Oddly, the United States should not demand both tariffs and an agreement that locks in higher tariff rates. Any deal could mitigate US concerns about discrimination or unreasonable actions towards US commerce. It is a bit of double-dipping.

Thoughts about Section 301s. substack.com/profile/8082...

So, the outcome of the Section 301 investigation is out. Oddly, the United States should not demand both tariffs and an agreement that locks in higher tariff rates. Any deal could mitigate US concerns about discrimination or unreasonable actions towards US commerce. It is a bit of double-dipping.

Tariffs are not a policy. So, as a tool that helps buffer some industries for some time, what comes after higher tariffs?

ICYMI, I took a chance to reply to recent calls for European tariffs that explicitly justify their policy proposals on the view trade rules won’t save the EU. Saving the EU is more complicated than raising tariffs but the rules don’t block they open consultations. open.substack.com/pub/monapaul...

New from me: A reply to Keynes: Let's clear up what rules can do. open.substack.com/pub/monapaul...

Where is the future of trade governance headed? Will it be driven by securitised economics? (Such a concept prioritises security, suggesting in the structured hierarchies of interests, serving the military establishment is at the top ~ roughly, wartime economics).

Paging @scottlincicome.bsky.social, Europe needs you.

"I saw first-hand what happened in the United Kingdom when the view was, vote for this, it’ll be soft, and then we’ll negotiate,” Carney said. Wonder how a divided Canada could make it difficult to negotiate for the USMCA and TPP reviews. www.ft.com/content/5c3d...