73% of Iran's population was born since the 1979 revolution, when Iran's medium age has been much lower than today, per the UN WPP 2024 estimates.

Great to see political theory build on recent public opinion research, including on constraint (Coppock and Green 2022) and idiosyncrasy (Lauderdale, Hanretty, and Vivyan 2018).

Under Messers Chávez and Maduro, electoral democracy and rule of law collapsed, and under Mr Maduro, the regime substantially increased its use of torture and political violence. Shown here with V-Dem's @vdeminstitute.bsky.social estimates.

43% of Iran's population is 30 or younger, per the UN WPP. Freedom from torture and political killing stayed below its relatively low levels at the turn of the century, and mobilization for autocracy has declined somewhat since its then high levels, per @vdeminstitute.bsky.social estimates.

Aging of the EU 27 according to the UN World Population Prospects 2024, under their lower, as opposed to the usual median projections.

Central African Republic held a presidential election yesterday. Its population is one of world's youngest. 56% is 17 or younger, per the UN WPP '24. A decade ago electoral democracy fell and then recovered to its previous, still relatively low level; the 2020s saw some decline again, per V-Dem.

the more things change …: in Slovakia's national-social bloc of Mr Fico's Smer and the far-right quartet of SNS, Republika and its ancestor ĽS NS, and the new "Právo na pravdu" [Right to the Truth], the aggregate support remains fairly stable since the '23 election, but the parties' weights change.

One of those days, it'd seem.

"Our ancestors learned to make fire so they could inhale the smoke of certain plants" would be an interesting analogue of the " ... adopted grain agriculture to improve their access to beer" hypothesis.

Joint polling trajectories of Mr Fico's Smer with its junior gov't partner Hlas and with the far-right Republika and Republika's ancestor ĽS NS.

The size of the student-age population is likely to change dramatically in some parts of the world, per the UN WPP 2024 projections. Hard to imagine this won't affect the international HE market and hence university funding and gov't relations.

Of statistics and optics

A close encounter of two trains in Slovakia's Žilina region earlier this week. Photo: Police (Žilina region) FB account

ERC Consolidator Grant 2025 results are out. The usual Visegrád ranking this time: 🇵🇱 4 🇨🇿 2 🇭🇺 2 🇸🇰 0 Plus: 🇪🇪 3 🇸🇮 2 🇭🇷 1 Outside of the EU, researchers here at Durham have landed two as well. Congrats to the winners! erc.europa.eu/news-events/...

🇪🇺 Research & development expenditures in 2024, as published by Eurostat this week. 🇸🇪🇧🇪🇦🇹🇫🇮🇩🇪 and 🇩🇰 heading the field, chiefly thanks to their business and enterprise sectors. 1/2

Hlas at a record low, 6.5%, but Mr Fico's coalition and the broader social-national bloc stable, as Smer's gain compensates, per latest NMS estimates Incentives for Hlas cadres to (re)join Smer individually rather than to wait for a possible electoral coalition or outright party merger are rising.

An expert report in a high-profile public procurement of IT for ~€80m, attached as a DVD copy ... a xerox copy. At Slovakia's National Agency for Network and Electronic Services. Found by @jsuchal.bsky.social via a FoI request.

🪑🗓️ Founding fathers and others: Messrs Janša, Fico, Kaczynski & Orbán meet Messrs Wilders and Åkesson in this chart of long-serving leaders of political parties of consequence in the EU. There are other veteran party leaders, even in Slovakia. But their parties have been less consequential.

The former Cisleithanian and Transleithanian lands -- Austria and Czechia on the C hand, Hungary and Slovakia on T hand -- converged at fist, until they were within a one-year band of 69-70 in 1970. And then they started to diverge.

Slovakia's November polling bonanza concludes with new Ipsos estimates. Again, Mr Fico's gov't coalition plus Republika (ESN) at some of their lowest numbers since the '23 elex. The center/right bloc of PS (RE) SaS (->EPP) D (EPP) at some of their highest. 1/n

Slovakia's center-right liberal SaS say they're interested in joining the EPP. In 2014 they switched from ALDE to ECR, until dropping out of the EP in '24. Today, they'd fit better with their former ALDE colleagues in RE, at least in the compass space per @chesdata.bsky.social estimates. 1/2

Slovakia's young and old voters diverge widely on Mr Fico's coalition, per FOCUS polls in Jul-Nov 66 and older: 44% Smer+Hlas, 12% PS 18-30 y.o.: 11% Hlas, 45% PS PS+SaS+ D 19% vs 58% Smer+Hlas+SNS+Rep 56% vs 26% 66+ are 22% of the adult population, 18-30 y.o. 16% 1/2

Hommage to Richard Prince. Took the Banana way more attempts than one would hope. QR code blurred.

Ukrainian sumo wrestler Aonishiki, whose real name is Danylo Yavhusishyn, on Sunday became the first from his nation to win a tournament of the traditional Japanese sport.

And the bonanza continues with a Nov poll by FOCUS. At this rate, Ipsos will release theirs this afternoon. The far-right Republika (ESN) is where the pollsters differ the most. Back in '23, it was AKO who got the last-minute flow from R to Smer that ended up with R outside of the parliament.

🇸🇰 polling bonanza continues with a Nov poll by AKO. Mr Fico's coalition plus Republika (ESN) again < 40%. KDH (EPP) keeps hang not far above the threshold, but its coalition prospects may be improving. The center/-right oppo bloc PS SaS D reaching towards a parl majority with KDH (EPP). 1/n

Mr Fico's gov't coalition plus its potential ally, the extra-parliamentary Republika (ESN), got two of its lowest aggregate support estimates in October and November polls by the state-owned Infostat, <40%. This chiefly due to Republika doing worse than in other polls. OTOH, KDH (EPP) did better.

UEFA's new Visegrád 4 is ... surprising. And then there's the almost Balkans pot, if not for Ireland.

November poll by NMS finds Mr Fico's gov't coalition at its lowest numbers in office and the extra-parliamentary Republika (ESN) at its highest yet. As the gov't coalition continues its move far right, some estimate suggest a chunk of their 2023 voters moves even further to the far right. 1/n

A rear view mirror image of the blip that launched Mr Matovič to become Slovakia's PM over five years ago.

One of those co-incidences: the top of the 8 Nov entry on Wikipedia's notable deaths list en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_...

Public health, jobs, cost of living, and poverty [🇵🇹🇧🇬🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪🇪🇸🇬🇷🇨🇾🇷🇴🇸🇰🇸🇮🇭🇷🇭🇺] vs. climate change, terrorism, gender equality, migration and democracy [🇸🇪🇩🇰🇳🇱🇩🇪🇫🇮] cross-country variation in emphasis on priorities for the European Parliament in Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025). 1/2

"Naturally fermented. Made from non-LLM soybeans."

To be clear: The law sets the max speed for bikes and scooters on sidewalks as "walking speed" and walking speed as "at most 6 km/h", but no penalty on pedestrians for exceeding it. It's a case of Slovakia's traditionally clumsy lawmaking. The Denník N headline, though not false, misleads.

Slovakia's parliament votes in a speed limit for pedestrians on sidewalks, 6 km/h, reports Denník N.

Why complicate things? The US immigration record from 1878 lists the young philosopher Tomáš Masaryk, the future president of Czechoslovakia Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk, simply as a doctor. By the way, the ship was named Herder.

Another October poll from Slovakia, this one by AKO, with collection on 8-17 Oct. Again, broadly on trends. 1/n

October polls by Ipsos and Focus find Mr Fico's gov't coalition on its downward trend that's been visible since the time of the assassination attempt on Mr Fico. 1/N

Today is the last day of the year and the 52-year cycle of the Aztec solar calendar.* Tomorrow, a new cycle begins with year One Rabbit: "One Rabbit was always associated with disaster; there was even an old saying, “We were really one rabbited,”" (Townsend 2019) * per Caso-Nicholson's alignment

The Party of European Socialists has definitively expelled Mr Fico's Smer. Smer's MEPs have been Non-Inscrits in this EP. Over 25 years under Mr Fico's leadership, Smer went from centrist, to center-left, to social-national, calling itself "rustic social democracy" and now "national conservative".

Cameroon elects its president tomorrow. The incumbent, Mr Biya, is running. At 92, he is the current oldest head of state. In office since 1982, also the current longest-serving non-royal head of state. 8 in 10 Cameroonians were born during his time in office. 1/2

June poll by Slovakia's state-owned Infostat found Hungary most popular among the voters of the far-right SNS (NI), a party formerly known for its intense anti-Hungarian sentiments. Similarly, the US was the second most popular among those of the far-right Republika (ESN).

A rather short tenure clock, that.

Mr Fico's gov't coalition has not stopped on its downward trend that's not fully offset by the rise of the non-parliamentary Republika (ESN), per October estimates by NMS. The center/-right opposition bloc of PS (RE) SaS (ECR) D (EPP) continues to enjoy its highest levels of support to date.

Slovakia's gov't parties Smer and Hlas are about where their voters are in the ideological space. The parliamentary opposition, not so much — per new NMS estimates. More the case of the econ dim than the lib-con one, the oppo mostly to the right of their voters there. nms.global/sk/politicke...

The price in votes of a seat in the lower house of the Czech parliament.

How Mr Babiš's ANO (PfE, ex-RE) traveled from the liberal-right quadrant to the left-conservative one, as captured by @chesdata.bsky.social With a comparison with fellow Central European social-national peers Mr Orbán's Fidesz (PfE, ex EPP) an Mr Fico's Smer (NI, ex-S&D).

Looks like neither the Social Democrats nor the Communists will make it into the Czech parliament this time either.