First week for me after leaving the CER and good to see that nothing important or dramatic is happening that I would have wanted to write about.

My take on the Australia deal has mellowed a little in hindsight. Yes, the UK probably gave away more than it needed to, but in the end that was probably in line with the policy preferences of the gov't at the time. And I don't think Australia had much more of value to offer in any case.

Reading the Hobbit for the first time in decades and reminded what an excellent writer Tolkien could be, with long, fluid, vibrant sentences that seem to engage you in conversation. None of these short, bland and limp sentences so fashionable these days - just a joy to read. Merry Christmas!

Celebrating Christmas by fixing a leaky kitchen sink. Pro tip: get one of those silicon trays under your sink to protect from water damage

Reflections on the European Council decision to borrow €90 billion and lend it to Ukraine. Tl; dr: Ukraine benefits, but not enough; Putin & Trump will be encouraged; the EU & individual member-states have shown that it’s still too easy to intimidate them. 🧵1/13

The 2025-6 Clara Marina O'Donnell fellow, @thomasmaddock.bsky.social , with his first insight for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, on the EU's failed approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict - a topic close to Clara's own heart.

Often, Berlin is the main veto player when it comes to decisive EU action. But this week, for once, Berlin is a key driver of getting both the reparations loan and Mercosur over the finish line. This time, the EU's ability to act act fully hinges on Rome's and Paris's will to jump.

It's been a rough year for European trade policy. The deal with the US, disputes with China and an overall sense of a worsening economic climate. My latest piece tries to draw out some lessons for Europe www.cer.eu/insights/thr...

Europe must boost its productivity through adopting foreign technologies - while also boosting its economic security. Can it manage both at once? New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @aslak.bsky.social & @zach-meyers.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/GyzXI4o

The Trump administration's industrial policy U-turn and aggressive trade policy are reshaping global clean tech markets. For EU manufacturers, it's a tale of two shocks: falling US demand + surging Chinese competition. Our new policy brief discusses what's happening and what Europe needs to do 🧵

When I finished writing this a couple of weeks ago, I didn't expect that the US would set out in its National Security Strategy how it could help Putin achieve his goals.

Every time I’m in Sweden I’m profoundly disturbed by this book store’s completely ungrammatical name

This is a good paper from @aslak.bsky.social and CER colleagues on aligning productivity and security, particularly on the prioritisation that will be essential in considering dependencies, and the need to continue to be competitive globally. mailings.cer.eu/publications...

📅 JOIN US - 10/12/25: @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise discussion on 'Resilient Growth: Aligning Productivity and Security' with @aslak.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social, Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute & Yannick Treige Email: [email protected] for info and registration

Do check out our new report - and come join us in Brussels for a round table discussion on it on Wednesday!

There's something here about the distance between politics and experts, because it isn't as if any of us are hard to find to say this Labour Customs Union chatter is going nowhere

Is there a trade expert out there arguing for a UK-EU customs union? I think it’s fair to say that @davidheniguk.bsky.social @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social and myself are hardly Euroskeptics, and while we emphasise different things in talking about a CU the conclusion is unanimous.

@samuelmarclowe.bsky.social has a good discussion on customs unions in his newsletter. Just a couple points: the below is true, but I don't think it matters all that much - since if the UK wanted to impose significantly higher tariffs than the EU, it would presumably to reroute trade through the EU.

Come join us in Brussels next week!

Come join us in Brussels next week!

Norway mentioned 🇳🇴🇳🇴🇳🇴🇳🇴🇳🇴

Exxon-Mobil (current market cap): $488B Norway GDP (2025 est): $517B Dispersed by TARP to rescue the financial system (adjusted for inflation): $667B Saudi Arabia GDP (2025 est): $1268B Amount OpenAI is on the hook for that’ll ruin companies’ balance sheets if OpenAI can’t make good: $1400B

Everyone is unhappy, directly or indirectly, with the fact that everyone else didn't get enough kids to support the elderly in the way and at the cost we expect. And politics gets the blame.

📅 JOIN US - 10/12/25: @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise discussion on 'Resilient Growth: Aligning Productivity and Security' with @aslak.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social, Lotta Nymann-Lindegren, Maive Rute & Yannick Treige Email: [email protected] for info and registration

On customs unions and sovereignty. I'd add that we're in new era of weaponised trade.

Wonderful write-up by @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social on a fascinating fiery debate at CERs annual economics conference this weekend (so fast Erik!) Should Europe use incentives to pull some of our capital exports back home rather than fund Americas deficits? independenteconomics.substack.com

Great thread on why the idea of a UK-EU customs union is a non-starter. (I'd add that the proposed Common Food Safety Area also provides potential to ease a significant number of burdens that being outside the SM and CU created)

There's a prevailing idea in the UK that a customs union with the EU would be a compromise solution if single market membership is not possible, e.g @eddavey.libdems.org.uk and @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social recently. But a customs union is, from a trade policy, a more radical step. (1/N)

I agree with much of what @jonathanfreedland.bsky.social says, but I’m a little befuddled by the persistence in the UK of the perception that a customs union is somehow an easier, smaller step than joining the single market for goods. Quite the opposite I’d say,

If I could have one wish granted for global politics it would be to see the abandonment of empty statements, symbolic procedural actions and summits that produce nothing of substance. No wonder people lose faith in the system: it often does nothing of value.

Sometimes you’re just wandering around London and you come across relics and ghosts of the distant past

UK politics is chronically prone to coming up with an extraordinary range of ideas with little capacity to prune out the bad ones and implement the good ones. It's a governance problem, more than anything. UK governments should strive to do less, but better.

Trump’s #trade policy has attracted much of the attention – but in the longer term it is Chinese trade policy that poses a larger challenge to Europe. 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @aslak.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/OPBZCaY

The far right is stronger than ever in the European Parliament. And climate policy has become a testing ground for its influence. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/7rqeFaO

Useful reminder from Agathe that Trump's negotiators are not to be dismissed or underestimated

A passage that does indeed read rather differently to the "indivisibility of the internal market" positions of the past

Great to see the report from the HoL European Affairs Committee inquiry into the UK-EU reset has been published. I - and lots of my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleagues as I've just realised - give oral evidence to the inquiry @aslak.bsky.social @antonspisak.bsky.social.

Very interesting paper. Confirms what we knew from cross-country studies - large, rapid effects. The really interesting part is the firm-level analysis, which shows similar, if somewhat lower, magnitudes. www.nber.org/papers/w3445...

Great points from Aslak. New FTAs are good. But let’s be clear: the economy outside China and US is too small to absorb EU (net) exports. If you favour new FTAs but oppose increasing EU internal demand you favour stagnation. If you favour both, good. If you oppose both you favour decline.

Sober and realistic piece by @aslak.bsky.social, this. www.cer.eu/insights/thr...

"The EU’s past ability to match the US in #trade matters was a function of the US being willing to play by the rules. It relied on the assumption that the two powers would keep trade and security matters in separate silos." mailings.cer.eu/insights/thr...

It's been a rough year for European trade policy. The deal with the US, disputes with China and an overall sense of a worsening economic climate. My latest piece tries to draw out some lessons for Europe www.cer.eu/insights/thr...

Does the rise of populism have economic roots, and more protectionist and anti-immigration policies help? Quick thread on my latest piece here buff.ly/O2SoUok

Reading this history of Gaza and struck by the fact that Britain at the time actually had 38,000 soldiers to place near the Suez Canal

There's a coherent and well-meaning worldview behind this, but a) no-one in the UK government is able to communicate it and b) it's principles-based rather than outcome-based.

This is my biggest struggle when I’m in the US. They generally like their bread either too soft, too sweet or too dense, sometimes all three at once

Simplifying EU regulation and a harder line on member-states’ gold-plating of EU law would cut compliance costs and boost growth. New CER/Martens Centre policy brief by @aslak.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/Rb9hOiI

Who had the bright idea to design the Eurostar waiting area at St Pancras with about a third of the capacity it needs?

Nothing more satisfying than the feeling after a good workout that you weren't really motivated to do at first