On this week’s @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social #podcast @aslak.bsky.social sat down with @agathedemarais.bsky.social to discuss where EU trade policy stands since the signing the EU-US trade agreement in July. Listen to the episode here: buff.ly/Uu7KDnV

@agathedemarais.bsky.social and I talk EU trade in the era of Trump on our latest podcast

If the UK implements a 10 year requirement to get Indefinite Leave to Remain that means that if you work for 9 years and then lose your job you're ineligible for unemployment benefits and risk having to uproot your entire existence. It's cruel and inhumane.

So does anyone have any good news about anything? Cheer me up!

I find it surprising that people living in a country stuffed to the gills with surveillance cameras everywhere can be so concerned about digital IDs

It's a good piece, & an honest one. It also comes to similar conclusions to @aslak.bsky.social's piece on the trade deal: www.cer.eu/insights/def... ; and mine on building a European defence organisation outside both NATO & the EU www.cer.eu/insights/nat... .

On the other site I have a list of people I follow - regular Gazans who mostly tweet in Arabic - and the stories they tell and the depth of their despair are absolutely breaking my heart. And they're blaming Hamas and Israel in almost equal measure

Revealing, because it reflects a worldview entirely based on *whose side* you're on

This really is very good

I stand by this take, for what it's worth.

If they continue to provide US intelligence support and continue to sell arms, Europe should be able to support Ukraine on its own - do read my colleague @cerianbond.bsky.social's excellent take on this www.cer.eu/publications...

This is true in general when investments of XX billions for this and that are announced during state visits and summits. They're usually pre-existing plans and the public doesn't really care - I think everyone persists with the theatre out of habit and because it's just what you do.

The feeling in the UK gov't was the Tech Partnership Deal and with the US was a Big Win they could sell with lots of promised AI investment to boost the economy. But the British public barely noticed and is now (rightly) back to complaining about trains and phone thefts.

I've grudgingly made my peace with the fact that the terms "geopolitics" and "geoecoomics" are spreading because they're shorter and punchier than the traditional alternatives and that any link with the discipline of geography has long been severed.

Just got a rejection letter from a job I'd forgotten I applied to...in March 2023! - turns out they decided not to hire anyone

I have no real objection to recognizing the State of Palestine, but it also another symptom of what you might call a legal cargo cult. We have no will or ability to change things on the ground, so we'll fiddle around with how we treat things from a legal perspective and call it a day.

Have a listen - on trade the Draghi report hasn’t really been implemented in my view, which may or may not be a bad thing.

Social media turns private speculation into public discussion, which is especially harmful when events happen where it takes time to establish facts. It ends up solidifying false narratives instantaneously. Hot takes should be reserved for the pub over a beer, not widely disseminated in public fora.

For some reason I was just thinking of this again

Pretty much everyone I’ve seen commenting and speculating on the identity and beliefs of Kirk’s killer over the last couple of days has gotten some things wrong. It’s ok to wait and see, you don’t need to have a take.

News from Finland. A 9-year-old lost an especially good stick he’d had since he was 2. He hung up 20 posters. A few days later it was returned. It had been found by a 2-year-old, who wanted to keep it for herself, but her mother made her return it. She got toys, flowers and candy as a reward.

My most elitist belief is that social media has allowed the idiocy on all sides that was previously hidden from public view to bubble up to the surface and take over the discourse.

I have a pretty bad feeling about pretty much everything happening right now. Horrendous week in dark times.

Going to start embracing my typos as a true mark of authenticity

Calling it the War Department is more honest and more accurate

A bit gnomic, but I think this is right

Starting to find UK politics a litte depressing.

No party can last very long in power if it’s deemed to take its voters for fools. Blunders are more easily forgiven than clumsy pandering.

I've started doing a weekly social-media Sabbath a bit like Orthodox Jews - would highly recommend it

A great opportunity to join our excellent team. If you've come back from your summer holidays feeling that you want a new challenge, this job at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social could be just what you're looking for.

My social media holiday is now over and I just want to go on record and state that, while I've been fairly dovish on negotiating tariffs with the Trump administration, the EU should absolutely draw a hard line againt US pressure to change EU laws - some things are worth the fight

Taking a social media break for the next week to touch some grass, read some books and watch some movies - starting with the Naked Gun today.

Not quite the Chinese model - it is, however, a model that has been often used in France and Scandinavia for instance, with highly varying degrees of success. When it has worked well you need to ensure there's a lack political interference in business decisions, which I doubt Trump could pull off.

Wholeheartedly agree with this

I will die on this hill: buying arms from the US that Europe - including Ukraine - needs and can't supply ourselves is sensible and good policy, actually.

Thoughts ahead of Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy & European leaders. First, Trump wants both sides to stop fighting, but is only prepared to put pressure on Ukraine. If Putin had any worries on that score, the Alaska summit will have reassured him. Sanctions are postponed, again. 1/16

The EU-US #trade deal does not depend on trust – the EU retains the option to retaliate if the deal falls through or Trump comes back with fresh demands. 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 🆕@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @aslak.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/elea5eY

HFE, on PPI: “.. Well… this is a kick in the teeth for anyone who thought that tariffs would not impact domestic prices in the United States economy. “.. will not be a long journey for producers' prices to translate into consumer prices.”

For the EU, a creature of international law and dedicated to the rules-based order, the US trade deal is a bitter pill to swallow. 🆕 @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @aslak.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/ulQ6ogj

We're hiring - this is a great opportunity to work on the most important issues in tech!

Must read thread. Welcome to the world of perpetual trade uncertainty. Nobody knows enough (anything).

What's great about LinkedIn is that the connection requests I get after I publish something are a good indicator of who actually reads my pieces

Well, Japan now claims they'll get the same treatment as the EU after all and the US will correct their 'mistake'. Good for them, I just wish they'd announced it in time for me to include it in my paper!

Nuanced take by @aslak.bsky.social - it's just very difficult to bargain when the other side does not believe in negative consequences, and convincing them that they do exist has a disproportionate cost.

"the current US administration believes, against economic theory and experience, that tariffs will benefit the US economy. This allows the US to engage in far more reckless behaviour than any other nation would entertain, because its government simply does not believe in negative consequences."

My take on the trade deal and explanation of what's in it:

nobel prize for literature right here

If this happens the deals are off and we're back where we were three weeks ago. We don't have legal certainty anymore, we have a relation that requires constant management.

I wouldn't worry too much about what Trump says about his deals in interviews - it's a performance where he oversells his deals. He did this with Japan earlier, he'll do it again. Worry when he starts talking deadlines and executive orders.