the clock is ticking

mieser slay, thu

The latest reports about the suspension of DMA fines against Google confirm what @aleichthammer.bsky.social and I wrote last year in an opinion piece for @table.media: With Trump, negotiations are never settled. Concessions today only fuel new demands tomorrow. www.delorscentre.eu/de/publikati...

Some seats still available for Wednesday's keynote with Spanish FM José Manuel Albares @delorsberlin.bsky.social @hertieschool.bsky.social Madrid's emphasis on multilateralism & international law has been widely noted. A chance to hear the rationale firsthand. www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...

At the risk of not being able to visit my friends in the US anymore: the ongoing evidence of full-fledged kleptocracy is insane www.ft.com/content/f921...

We are very pleased to welcome Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares next Wednesday for a keynote speech on the future of Europe. The keynote will be followed by a discussion with me and Q&A with the audience. Join us! Spaces are limited, register here: www.delorscentre.eu/en/events-at...

📣 How can the EU shape foreign investment? Our latest policy brief by @jannikjansen.bsky.social & @aleichthammer.bsky.social looks at the Industrial Accelerator Act and what it means for Europe’s industrial strategy, zooming in on the principle of selective conditionality. Link in the comments.

Great to see Sweden, Austria, Estonia, Finland, Germany and NL pushing for stronger rule of law conditionality in next MFF, as reported by FT. Especially good to see their proposal to introduce reverse QMV for sanctions, which I also argued for in this JDC paper: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...

This report and @palmapolyak.bsky.social’s recent work on European gigafactories diagnosing the same failure: weakly conditioned investment rules and badly integrated and governed subsidies are causing many incoherences that are undermining EU industrial policy at the moment we need it the most.

Sometimes it takes a whole village to raise a paper (or smth like this) Genuinely proud of this one - many a sleepless nights with @jannikjansen.bsky.social coming to fruition For the German readers amongst you, Handelsblatt covered us exclusively www.handelsblatt.com/politik/inte...

German Foreign Minister Wadephul gave a keynote speech on the EU yesterday titled "Boldly shaping the future of Europe", with several proposals for institutional reform: www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/... Quick thread on the main points:

Ein Unternehmen gründen in nur 48 Std, das in ganz Europa operieren kann, ohne viel Papierkram oder Kosten - das ist das zentrale Versprechen von EU Inc. Ob EU Inc. ein Gamechanger für Europas Startups wird, darüber spreche ich mit @marleneschoerner.bsky.social: open.spotify.com/episode/3OIB...

There's a global race to secure EV battery gigafactories & reduce reliance on China. But not all clean-tech projects are created equal. Some generate good jobs & domestic capacities, others produce ecological harm & low value-added enclaves. New paper & thread 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Suspending funds is the EU’s strongest tool to safeguard rule of law. In Hungary, release of frozen EU funds was a key factor in Péter Magyar’s campaign. The Commission wants to enshrine RoL conditionality in the next MFF. In a new paper, I take a closer look: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...

Die @szde.bsky.social berichtet heute Morgen über mein neues Papier zum Vorschlag der EU-Kommission, EU-Gelder im neuen mehrjährigen Haushalt stärker an die Rechtsstaatlichkeit zu knüpfen: www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/unga...

Young, innovative firms often struggle to grow in Europe, and access to finance is a key issue. Now the EU is setting up a €5bn public-private fund: The Scaleup Europe Fund. In my new policy brief, I discuss whether this is a good idea and how the fund should be designed. Main takeaways 👇

Kommunalwahlen, Endergebnisse: Frankreich ist mehrheitlich mitte-rechts in der Fläche, links in den Großstädten, und es gab Trostpreise für die Ränder und Renaissance. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse und ihre Folgen: 🧵 www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeur...

🚨🚨 Unusual with such moral integrity for a European political leader: Spanish PM Pedro Sanches insists that #Spain won't temper criticism of #Trump's attacks on #Iran over fear of reprisals and commercial pressure. 👇 www.politico.eu/article/pedr...

🧵 Trump wanting to cut all trade ties with Spain over use of US military bases is getting attention and some say Merz should've piped up more strongly. For now, it's mostly rhetorical pressure ('waffle'), so the damage is limited. If it becomes any more concrete, the EU must decisively rebuke.

After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act. This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start. Some quick thoughts:

This is the way. And I hope more EU leaders follow suit. It would be particuarly good for Merz to have a call with Sanchez today and affirm full German solidarity with Spain.

IAA (finally) out FDI conditions are lex China pure, covering investments >100m from countries with >40% global production share in i) batteries ii) EVs iii) solar iv) critical raw materials

Decision @ec.europa.eu to go ahead with provisional application #EU #Mercosur is the right one. Many in @europarl.europa.eu agree. We are in an exceptional situation where EP can only vote after ECJ. At the same time, international trade rules are constantly being violated by others. 1/2

So the Telegraph is taking this well

EU provisionally applies Mercosur, as set out in the Council decision last month: ec.europa.eu/commission/p... EP reactions will be interesting.

Incredibly helpful table from @andrewlautz.bsky.social

www.ft.com/content/d00d... No rest for the wicked, muted market reactions to ruling Don't get your hopes up too high for big tariff policy changes, Trump's lawyers will have prepared for this outcome but could mean increased uncertainty for businesses over the next weeks/months

The Industrial Accelerator Act, aimed to boost energy-intensive industries and clean tech, faces another delay. Meanwhile, energy-intensive industry continues to struggle. I looked into the data. First, overall poor performance espc. for the chemical industry - although a small recent uptick (1/3)

No I don’t think so either. My comment was more related to the fact that the EPP is only scutinizing non-EPP/non-ECR countries. Their targeting of Spain has different roots I think and is also not new, see e.g. the derailing of Riberas hearing for Commissioner by EPP MEPs

Tomorrow’s summit is a chance for EU leaders to stop chasing the wrong fixes — and finally sketch a response that matches the scale of Europe’s economic challenge. Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Commission to table prolongation of the suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US for another 6 months. Current suspension expires on 7 Feb. EC also says it hasn't yet taken a decision on whether to provisionally apply the Mercosur pact borderlex.net/2026/01/23/e...

‼️🩸A bloodbath for the German auto trade with China in 2025: 📉70% drop in mid-sized saloon car exports 📉38% drop in large engine cars 📉39% fall in small ones 📉54% drop in small station wagons 📉23% for larger ones

You may have missed it amidst the chaos of the last few days, but there is a new high-level EU report in town: A Franco-German task force led by Jörg Kukies and Christian Noyer presented recommendations to tackle the scale-up financing gap. Here is what it says and why you should care about it.

Europeans after managing to prevent the collapse of NATO for another 1-2 weeks… #Europe #Rutte

Everyone is talking about the EU’s supposed trade bazooka -but understanding how it would actually work is a different matter. For those who want to dig into the details, Arthur has you covered with a brilliant thread.

I'm with you - actually I believe the comitology procedure makes it even more difficult to pass Council QMV vote Having said that, in an evolving conflict there cannot be fixed previously decided measures and it is illusory to think COM would move strongly against MS consortium in response measures

🧵 Trump’s Greenland brinkmanship puts the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument back on the table. Few cases fit economic coercion more cleanly. But the ACI is often misunderstood. It’s not a bazooka, but a slow-loading cannon, able to fire anything from heavy shells to hot air. Here’s how it works ⬇️

@onethuthree.bsky.social @aleichthammer.bsky.social @delorsberlin.bsky.social

"The world until recently believed that US-China decoupling was on the way. It turns out that most countries are now scrambling to de-risk from America." My column. as.ft.com/r/83099001-d...

Nothing exposes the hollowness of the free speech rhetoric like defending AI-generated child sexual abuse material under such www.politico.eu/article/us-s...

a true G

New: EU Commission has issued guidance for Chinese EV exporters on what is acceptable in price undertaking offers. Comes after VW Anhui made a deal of its own to escape tariffs Includes minimum import price, sales channels, cross-compensation and future investments in the EU

Halle-freaking-lujah Now hoping this momentum can be doubled down on with a swift conclusion of the India FTA and that the budget moves needed don’t foreshadow further cuts to the flexibility of the next MFF www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...

EU citizens - especially those in Greenland - deserve a clear answer to the question of how EU leaders would react to attempts of the US to annex Greenland. Will there be a clear political and economic response? Or is it also going to be a "complex situation" to be "closely monitored"?

Required reading for those European capitals that are still in denial. As a recent Rhodium note cited by the FT stresses, a weak renminbi, persistent deflation and excess capacity in China will erode the bite of conventional trade defence tools. New thinking is needed www.ft.com/content/079f...

End of year reflections on EU climate policy: it’s really not looking good for the Green Deal. @jannikjansen.bsky.social and I wrote a short piece on why we're far from "staying the course" - and why that's a strategic mistake for Europe (1/12) tinyurl.com/jdc-green-deal

My letter in the Economist pushes back on its take on Europe and the second China shock. The Economist lays out the profound pressure China is putting on EU manufacturing, but then proceeds to advocate the EU give up and switch to services à la the UK. That feels thin. Pleased they published it.

Couldn't agree more. Would add that I don't think this will happen until there is one person inside Commission who thinks about this 24/7 and can take people/organisations to task when they're dragging their feet. We need somebody to own the issue/portfolio

1/ This year revealed how the EU's critical raw materials dependence has become an economic security vulnerability. ReSourceEU is the EU’s most serious attempt yet to remedy this. To end the year, I dive into what it does and whether it can shift the trajectory: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...