The European Democracy Shield🛡️ is finally out today. Here is what it says (and what I think):🧵⬇️ commission.europa.eu/document/dow...

Die deutsche und europäische Automobilindustrie kriselt, gefühlt im Wochentakt kommen die Eilmeldungen über Stellenabbau bei Herstellern und Zulieferern. Wie ihr geholfen werden kann, habe ich mit @nilsredeker.bsky.social und @sandertordoir.bsky.social diskutiert: open.spotify.com/episode/15Nb...

EPP leader Manfred Weber just gave a very good keynote speech on the future of Europe in Berlin tonight, putting forward seven principles for a stronger EU. Quick thread:

It's been a rough year for European trade policy. The deal with the US, disputes with China and an overall sense of a worsening economic climate. My latest piece tries to draw out some lessons for Europe www.cer.eu/insights/thr...

The Commission is set to finally unveil the Democracy Shield 🛡️on 12 November! Here is what it will look like and what details will matter. 🧵

Woah what a cover from Handelsblatt. The China Trap. "Raw materials, semiconductors, export markets — out of convenience and short-sightedness, Germany made itself dependent on Beijing. Now the bill is coming due. But there are ways out." That note of optimism at the end is exactly right.

While the European Council in Brussels took the spotlight, this week's events in Strasbourg should set off alarm bells. The European Parliament slamming the brakes on the first “Omnibus” package isn’t just a hiccup – it’s a symptom of strain in the EU’s democratic engine. A thread 🧵

By every metric, the industry is in deep trouble — and none of it has anything to do with future emission rules or an engine ban a decade away. In fact, the future of cars is electric - not because of Brussels regulation, but because EVs will soon be much cheaper to make and run.

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Should other EU countries copy Germany's Industriestrompreis? Germany is set to introduce this controversial subsidy soon, which will lower electricity prices for industry. 🧵on whether it is a model to follow & what it means for other EU countries, based on data in new policy brief (1/23)

This Thursday, the European Parliament’s @imco.europarl.europa.eu will vote on the ‘transparency of third-country lobbying’ directive. The directive is intended to counter foreign interference by introducing mandatory national transparency registers for third-country lobbying. 1/

Today, the EU’s Regulation on the Transparency and Targeting of Political Advertising enters into force. From now on, political ads – notably both online and offline – will have to carry a transparency label with key information about why people are seeing the ad, who paid for it and how much. 1/

Here we go again...

Was wondering what COM would use to replace lapsing steel safeguards. In theory, quotas can be WTO-legal, but only if non-discriminatory (historic import shares + consultations), also continuity of safeguards is pretty obvious: very open to be challenged.. what d'y'all think?

Driven by fear of the far right, the EU is losing its compass, whether on migration, climate or Gaza. By undermining its own principles, Europe weakens its global position and risks losing not just dignity but political agency. With @jannikjansen.bsky.social: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Europe cannot afford to treat its values as expendable. Each concession to the far right corrodes democracy at home and erodes its credibility abroad. By reducing principles to luxuries, Europe risks losing not just its dignity but political agency. New op-ed with @onethuthree.bsky.social

EU and Indonesia agree trade deal on.ft.com/4pFqsPE

Me when my paper's policy implications still haven't been implemented one year into into the peer review process.

A few quick impressions from @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu's State of the Union address: ec.europa.eu/commission/p... /

After a lil back-and-forth, COM decides to enforce legislation. Google has 60 days to set out plan to change activities COMP has deemed uncompetitive www.euractiv.com/section/tech...

On the WTO compatibility of the EU-US deal, some clear statements from @sabineweyand.bsky.social during the INTA hearing: 1) US+EU regard agreement as first step, for EU that means striving for WTO compatibility 2) US was not ready to sing up to a commitment to strive fore WTO compatibility /1

Political party discovers that higher tax rates lead to higher tax revenues.

🧵 Yesterday, the EU postponed a major antitrust fine against Google in its adtech case - reportedly after Šefčovič lobbied to avoid clashing with the fragile US trade deal and the promised cut in car tariffs.

The US government is once again ramping up its rhetoric on the EU’s Digital Services Act. It is now reportedly considering imposing sanctions on Commission staff responsible for implementing the DSA. This would be an unprecedented move. 🧵⬇️ www.ft.com/content/ff8d...

While it's getting a little repetitive it also makes my work easier: tariff negotiations with Trump are not a one-time occasion and there is no certainty for agreed upon "deals".

"'The number is not incredibly unrealistic but the EU’s ability to credibly commit to it is limited,' @aleichthammer.bsky.social told #CNBC. As for Trump’s suggestion of potentially higher tariffs if the investment does not materialize? “That’s exactly the risk." 👉 www.cnbc.com/2025/08/06/t...

Here we go again. EU just isn't dealing with a good-faith actor on the other side. The lack of interest in anything stable, permanent or predictable doesn't fit into EU's mental model. Ultimately it's about incentives - if there's no negative consequence, US is always going to come back for more.

This must come as a shocking surprise www.ft.com/content/fdcf...

Laughed out loud at a joke combining EU trade and multiannual budget policy - I really do hope two weeks of vacation rewire my brain...

The Commission just approved a €11bn French state aid scheme to support offshore wind. Competitive bidding, direct price support via two-way CfDs, and resilience criteria to curb reliance on Chinese tech. This is the way. ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

This is insane. Queue the point that I keep on banging on about: tariff negotiations with Trump are not a one-time occasion (and there is no such thing as a deal yet). His last sentence on pharma being excluded from 15% ceiling will bring some renewed worries to EU (and especially Ireland).

🧵 In the trade world, this week was a rather hectic one. The Turnberry outcome underline the fact that negotiations with Trump are not one-off events but an ongoing process. A fact that undermines the idea that this week has brought stability.

Incredible effort by my colleagues, not just crunching the incredibly confusing data and making it comprehensible, but offering four principles the drawn-out negotiations should follow

Europe’s car industry may have just dodged a +25% US tariff – but this is no reason to relax. Deep structural challenges remain, and the EU lacks a common diagnosis for fixing them. My new policy paper argues that a coherent EU strategy needs to rest on three uncomfortable truths: 🧵

From July 9th to August 1st, the tariff deadline has moved but the threat remains. The EU can consider adopting a strategy of flexible, credible retaliation, underpinned by internal burden-sharing, write @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @aleichthammer.bsky.social here 👇 bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...

Der zweite China-Schock zeigt sich glasklar in den Handelsdaten. Nur ein Beispiel – siehe Chart. Deutschland hat viele Stärken und ist eine treibende Kraft bei der Gestaltung des europäischen Binnenmarkts. Es gibt keinen Grund, tatenlos zuzusehen, wie die Industrie verschwindet.

Handelsdaten zeigen: Europas (v.a. DE) Exporte nach China sinken, Importe steigen – China-Schock 2.0 Sander nennt 4 Hebel die jetzt gebraucht werden: kluge Handelspolitik, gezielte Subventionen, aktivierte Binnennachfrage & außenwirtschaftliche Neupositionierung Starker Beitrag - Berlin plz read

EU-China summit is underway in Beijing. In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day. First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...

Good balanced take from Arthur on inward-Chinese FDI. In areas where Europe needs Chinese tech transfer, like batteries, it could make sense. But it’s crucial to enforce conditions that prevent China from using EU-based plants to simply piece together Chinese-made components for market access.

On this basis I suggest the EU commits to invest a trillion dollars in the US, with 150% of the profits going to the US, because numbers have ceased to have any meaning. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

No one’s holding their breath for big announcements from today’s EU–China summit. But FDI remains one area where pragmatic cooperation is still possible and, under the right conditions, can strengthen EU industry. In today’s Euractiv op-ed, I outline what it takes to make that happen.

What does the new Commission budget proposal say on funding for democracy? It increases the funds allocated to defending democracy, rule of law and other Union values from ~1,55bn € (not adjusted for inflation) in the last MFF to 3,18bn € (in 2025 prices).

Trump: "He has these think tanks. They build buildings for people that think."

After Merz and Starmer signed the Kensington Treaty last week and the Macron-Starmer summit the week before, on Wednesday Macron will come to Berlin to meet Merz. Read here my German version on why we are seeing the revival of the E3, backed up by a triangle of bilateral enagement:

The budget numbers proposed by the EU COM are finally out - but their interpretation is far from unequivocal. Let me give you some comparisons in 2025 prices which is more informative in terms of actual buying power:

There's a common cognitive bias in international relations where you're intimately aware of your own side's internal political dynamics and the ways they can trump (sorry) objectivity - while assuming everyone else will always just run the numbers and behave hyper-rationally.

"German sentiment sits with the UK, but the strategy always stays with the EU”. My thoughts in @economist.com on the - otherwise highly welcome and well-crafted - Anglo-German Friendship Treaty announced today. Thanks to @sambeal.bsky.social www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Die Bundesregierung sagt, Sie könne den Kommissions-Vorschlag zum neuen EU-Haushalt nicht akzeptieren, weil ein "umfassender Aufwuchs" in Zeiten der Konsolidierung nationaler Haushalte nicht vermittelbar sei. Ich halte das aus ein paar Gründen für keine kluge deutsche Position:

1/ The EU Commission proposes a budget 2028-2034 that is around €580bn higher than its precursor. The increase is a bit less enormous considering that NGEU repayments will already consume €168bn. However, there is still quite some additional spending in there, mainly going to the new Pillar II:

Deutsch-französisches Op-Ed der Finanzminister @larsklingbeil.bsky.social und Eric Lombard heute in Les Echos: - gemeinsame Haltung zu Zöllen / "proportionierte Gegenmaßnahmen" - dt-frz Zusammenarbeit in EU wichtiger denn je, um in globalem Umfeld zu bestehen (1/2) www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats...