Driven by fear of the far right, the EU is losing its compass, whether on migration, climate or Gaza. By undermining its own principles, Europe weakens its global position and risks losing not just dignity but political agency. With @jannikjansen.bsky.social: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Europe cannot afford to treat its values as expendable. Each concession to the far right corrodes democracy at home and erodes its credibility abroad. By reducing principles to luxuries, Europe risks losing not just its dignity but political agency. New op-ed with @onethuthree.bsky.social

EU and Indonesia agree trade deal on.ft.com/4pFqsPE

Me when my paper's policy implications still haven't been implemented one year into into the peer review process.

A few quick impressions from @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu's State of the Union address: ec.europa.eu/commission/p... /

After a lil back-and-forth, COM decides to enforce legislation. Google has 60 days to set out plan to change activities COMP has deemed uncompetitive www.euractiv.com/section/tech...

On the WTO compatibility of the EU-US deal, some clear statements from @sabineweyand.bsky.social during the INTA hearing: 1) US+EU regard agreement as first step, for EU that means striving for WTO compatibility 2) US was not ready to sing up to a commitment to strive fore WTO compatibility /1

Political party discovers that higher tax rates lead to higher tax revenues.

🧵 Yesterday, the EU postponed a major antitrust fine against Google in its adtech case - reportedly after Šefčovič lobbied to avoid clashing with the fragile US trade deal and the promised cut in car tariffs.

The US government is once again ramping up its rhetoric on the EU’s Digital Services Act. It is now reportedly considering imposing sanctions on Commission staff responsible for implementing the DSA. This would be an unprecedented move. 🧵⬇️ www.ft.com/content/ff8d...

While it's getting a little repetitive it also makes my work easier: tariff negotiations with Trump are not a one-time occasion and there is no certainty for agreed upon "deals".

"'The number is not incredibly unrealistic but the EU’s ability to credibly commit to it is limited,' @aleichthammer.bsky.social told #CNBC. As for Trump’s suggestion of potentially higher tariffs if the investment does not materialize? “That’s exactly the risk." 👉 www.cnbc.com/2025/08/06/t...

Here we go again. EU just isn't dealing with a good-faith actor on the other side. The lack of interest in anything stable, permanent or predictable doesn't fit into EU's mental model. Ultimately it's about incentives - if there's no negative consequence, US is always going to come back for more.

This must come as a shocking surprise www.ft.com/content/fdcf...

Laughed out loud at a joke combining EU trade and multiannual budget policy - I really do hope two weeks of vacation rewire my brain...

The Commission just approved a €11bn French state aid scheme to support offshore wind. Competitive bidding, direct price support via two-way CfDs, and resilience criteria to curb reliance on Chinese tech. This is the way. ec.europa.eu/commission/p...

This is insane. Queue the point that I keep on banging on about: tariff negotiations with Trump are not a one-time occasion (and there is no such thing as a deal yet). His last sentence on pharma being excluded from 15% ceiling will bring some renewed worries to EU (and especially Ireland).

🧵 In the trade world, this week was a rather hectic one. The Turnberry outcome underline the fact that negotiations with Trump are not one-off events but an ongoing process. A fact that undermines the idea that this week has brought stability.

Incredible effort by my colleagues, not just crunching the incredibly confusing data and making it comprehensible, but offering four principles the drawn-out negotiations should follow

Europe’s car industry may have just dodged a +25% US tariff – but this is no reason to relax. Deep structural challenges remain, and the EU lacks a common diagnosis for fixing them. My new policy paper argues that a coherent EU strategy needs to rest on three uncomfortable truths: 🧵

From July 9th to August 1st, the tariff deadline has moved but the threat remains. The EU can consider adopting a strategy of flexible, credible retaliation, underpinned by internal burden-sharing, write @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @aleichthammer.bsky.social here 👇 bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...

Der zweite China-Schock zeigt sich glasklar in den Handelsdaten. Nur ein Beispiel – siehe Chart. Deutschland hat viele Stärken und ist eine treibende Kraft bei der Gestaltung des europäischen Binnenmarkts. Es gibt keinen Grund, tatenlos zuzusehen, wie die Industrie verschwindet.

Handelsdaten zeigen: Europas (v.a. DE) Exporte nach China sinken, Importe steigen – China-Schock 2.0 Sander nennt 4 Hebel die jetzt gebraucht werden: kluge Handelspolitik, gezielte Subventionen, aktivierte Binnennachfrage & außenwirtschaftliche Neupositionierung Starker Beitrag - Berlin plz read

EU-China summit is underway in Beijing. In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day. First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...

Good balanced take from Arthur on inward-Chinese FDI. In areas where Europe needs Chinese tech transfer, like batteries, it could make sense. But it’s crucial to enforce conditions that prevent China from using EU-based plants to simply piece together Chinese-made components for market access.

On this basis I suggest the EU commits to invest a trillion dollars in the US, with 150% of the profits going to the US, because numbers have ceased to have any meaning. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

No one’s holding their breath for big announcements from today’s EU–China summit. But FDI remains one area where pragmatic cooperation is still possible and, under the right conditions, can strengthen EU industry. In today’s Euractiv op-ed, I outline what it takes to make that happen.

What does the new Commission budget proposal say on funding for democracy? It increases the funds allocated to defending democracy, rule of law and other Union values from ~1,55bn € (not adjusted for inflation) in the last MFF to 3,18bn € (in 2025 prices).

Trump: "He has these think tanks. They build buildings for people that think."

After Merz and Starmer signed the Kensington Treaty last week and the Macron-Starmer summit the week before, on Wednesday Macron will come to Berlin to meet Merz. Read here my German version on why we are seeing the revival of the E3, backed up by a triangle of bilateral enagement:

The budget numbers proposed by the EU COM are finally out - but their interpretation is far from unequivocal. Let me give you some comparisons in 2025 prices which is more informative in terms of actual buying power:

There's a common cognitive bias in international relations where you're intimately aware of your own side's internal political dynamics and the ways they can trump (sorry) objectivity - while assuming everyone else will always just run the numbers and behave hyper-rationally.

"German sentiment sits with the UK, but the strategy always stays with the EU”. My thoughts in @economist.com on the - otherwise highly welcome and well-crafted - Anglo-German Friendship Treaty announced today. Thanks to @sambeal.bsky.social www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Die Bundesregierung sagt, Sie könne den Kommissions-Vorschlag zum neuen EU-Haushalt nicht akzeptieren, weil ein "umfassender Aufwuchs" in Zeiten der Konsolidierung nationaler Haushalte nicht vermittelbar sei. Ich halte das aus ein paar Gründen für keine kluge deutsche Position:

1/ The EU Commission proposes a budget 2028-2034 that is around €580bn higher than its precursor. The increase is a bit less enormous considering that NGEU repayments will already consume €168bn. However, there is still quite some additional spending in there, mainly going to the new Pillar II:

Deutsch-französisches Op-Ed der Finanzminister @larsklingbeil.bsky.social und Eric Lombard heute in Les Echos: - gemeinsame Haltung zu Zöllen / "proportionierte Gegenmaßnahmen" - dt-frz Zusammenarbeit in EU wichtiger denn je, um in globalem Umfeld zu bestehen (1/2) www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats...

1/ "Secondary Sanctions" - What are they, and how do they work? Since Donald Trump is floating them against Russia's trading partners, and with absolutely no expectation he won't change his mind again next week and declare Zelenskyy the real villain, I thought I'd do a (long, sorry) explainer.

Trump's tariff letter to the EU threatens 30% from 1 August. How should the EU respond? This piece by @etiennehoera.d-64.social & @aleichthammer.bsky.social explores some ideas for a strategy. Read more: bst-europe.eu/economy-secu...

First half of 2025 for China: EU exports +6.6%, imports -5.9% German exports +10.6%, imports -5.2% Dutch exports +2%, imports -5% French exports +7.3%, imports -6.4% Italian exports +3.2%, imports -9.2% China is selling a lot more to Europe and buying a lot less from Europe

The leaked proposal of the #Competitiveness Fund #ECF still conceals its most important information: its size. However, let’s take a closer look at what’s in and what’s out:

Let’s be clear: the European Parliament has every reason to fight tooth and nail for real influence over national plans - and it can ensure cohesion funds continue to support social investment. All of that is possible without clinging to the EU budget’s clearly dysfunctional structure.

If you want to know what OBR really said on all this, I wrote a brief summary TL;DR: Since net-zero is much cheaper than thought and unchecked global warming is far more costly than thought, climate action makes even more sense than thought www.carbonbrief.org/... 6/6

To tackle Europe's challenges, the EU budget needs root-and-branch reforms. If you think cementing the status quo is a progressive victory, you’re fundamentally misreading the moment. www.politico.eu/article/soci...

After Germany's driest spring on record, wildfires erupted in many parts of the country last week — including a massive (2,100 hectares destroyed) fire still raging in Saxony. It's only July and Germany has already far, far exceeded its previous record for area burnt, per EFFIS.

The great question of our age: WHERE are all the briefcase wankers? economist.com/britain/2025...

The Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive. Thread:

And simultaneously the EPP blocks fast-tracking the 2040 climate targets... And while on EVs and climate targets, could someone let literally everybody know that squeezing out the last drops of profits from combustion engines is very much not a strategy to reclaim competitiveness?

This, by @owenjones.bsky.social should especially resonate in Germany where the sanctioning of protesting genocide is unparalleled in Europe. Where climate protestors are treated as criminals and are compared to terrorists by politicians. In reality of course … www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

1/ The leak for the European Competitiveness Fund has just been made public. Here's a breakdown of the main elements of the proposal. As expected, the COM proposes consolidating several of its directly managed programmes. The draft points to 12/14 programmes merged under a single legal framework

Very true. Also macro picture hides politically sensitive sectors (think wine/spirits) that play an outsized role in negotiations.