It's Tax Day! Here's a thread on what we know about how the tax filing season has gone so far. 🧵 REFUNDS: ⬆️ than last year, ⬇️ than some predicted. Current average is $3,462, which is $346 (11%) higher than 2025. Some were predicting $3,800 or $4,000+. Haven't seen that yet.

The Trump admin's FY2027 budget request would cut IRS funding 13%, but not at equal levels: - Enforcement: 18% cut (-$0.9B) 📉 - Tech and Ops Support: 18% cut (-$0.6B) 📉 - Taxpayer Services: 3% increase (+$0.1B) 📈

New from Fred Hernandez and I @bipartisanpolicy.org: should Congress increase taxes on sports betting? The Yale Budget Lab recently scored our 5% excise tax option as raising nearly $100B over 10. We dive in, with a 👀 at prediction markets as well. bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/...

The $1,776 military bonuses came from appropriations in the One Big Beautiful Bill, not tariff revenue. t.co/nSLJNdCo3K

You can't balance the budget through cutting waste fraud and abuse alone. Entitlement spending and interest expense are driving our spending.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, even with the larger IEEPA tariffs now ruled illegal by SCOTUS, tariff revenues would only make up 6% of federal revenues over the next 10 years.

Here's what the tax cut looks like for someone claiming the overtime and/or tips deduction. At maximum amounts, it can lead to a tax cut of $6,000. For most taxpayers, it will be smaller, due to rules/limits. For more: bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/th... bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/ne...

On a nominal dollar basis, the One Big Beautiful Bill is the largest tax cut in history. As a share of GDP, the bipartisan deal to make the Bush tax cuts permanent was larger.

Trump has announced he's using Sec. 122 to implement a "global" 10% tariff. Can last for up to 150 days (so perhaps July 20, 2026). Advantage of 122 is it requires no investigation and no waiting period. Disadvantage is it's capped at a 15% rate and 150 days. www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/t...

Wondering where the Trump administration might go next after the SCOTUS ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs? We have a chart for you @bipartisanpolicy.org! Web version here: www.datawrapper.de/_/kvams/?v=5 And thanks to @bbkogan.bsky.social for reminding me to post here more often :)

Jokes aside on this, while this strikes down roughly 70% of the new tariffs, we expect Trump to switch to using different (more annoying for him) authorities for most of these, and we think those have a higher likelihood of surviving in court. This is just the beginning of a very, very long battle.

Incredibly helpful table from @andrewlautz.bsky.social

Last night we got our first IRS update on the 2026 tax filing season. While it's too early to lock in trends: - Avg refund is $2,290, ⬆️ than most recent years - 22M returns have been received, ⬇️ from recent years - 127M have visited IRS.gov, ⬆️ from last year bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/...

We've said before that this filing season will be a stress test on the IRS: funding cuts, staff reductions, OBBB changes (see next post). This story highlights an early response to that stress test: involuntary, 4-month reassignments of HR/IT staff to taxpayer services.

The IRS is asking seasoned employees without any direct tax experience to perform entry-level tasks of answering phones and processing tax returns, a step impacted staff call unprecedented as the agency scrambles to prepare for filing season. buff.ly/52RfQeA

New from us @bipartisanpolicy.org: crypto tax policy is a hot topic on Capitol Hill right now. We have some broad thoughts on how lawmakers should be thinking about de minimis, mining/staking, and more: bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/...

“There are a lot of things that are likely to drive higher refunds [during the 2026] filing season.” Our own @andrewlautz.bsky.social was quoted in today’s CNBC story on the 2026 filing season. Read the article to see how your tax returns are affected this season.

President Trump and Speaker Johnson have both called out the Congressional Budget Office's 1.8% economic growth assumption for the next decade. Setting aside the notion CBO does projections based on the party in power (they don't), growth has been on a clear downward trend for decades.

ICYMI: Is the SALT deduction always/sometimes/never a good policy? @andrewlautz.bsky.social on the impact and trade-offs of raising the SALT deductions cap: www.wnyc.org/story/salt-c...

Today: - @andrewlautz.bsky.social on raising the SALT deductions cap, - Envisioning 'good government' in NYC with @citizensunionny.bsky.social, - @contrapoints.bsky.social on conspiracy theories, - Listeners, what would YOU wait on line for? Live at 10 on 93.9 FM, AM820 or @wnyc.org

More Americans may be paying individual alternative minimum tax if a change in the House-passed Republican tax-and-spending package remains in place. But it won't get close to pre-TCJA levels, @kylepomerleau.bsky.social and @andrewlautz.bsky.social say. buff.ly/Ak16FNg

Lawmakers from both parties want to revisit the current $10K cap on state and local #tax (SALT) deductions. Our explainer details how the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act changed SALT, who is most affected by the present cap, & suggests principles for fiscally responsible reform. 🔗https://bit.ly/4lhqOK9

Congress' tax scorekeeper, JCT, is out with new scores today on the cost of extending the 2017 GOP tax cuts. JCT finds that extension costs $4.1 trillion over 10 years, and $700 billion more tacked on due to the extra interest payments we'll have to make on our debt. punchbowl.news/wyden_merkle...

New from Rachel Snyderman and I: What’s in the Senate GOP budget? 💸 1) up to $5.7 TRILLION in higher deficits/debt 🫣 2) an attempt to obscure a huge portion of that behind a "current policy" baseline that says tax cuts are free. Read more: bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/wh...

Happy baseline week. Remember: no budgetary rule can make $4.5 trillion in tax cuts cost $0! Current policy just obscures the cost from the public and breaks decades of precedent.

📈 Congressional Budget Office finds extending Trump tax cuts w/o pay-fors would increase debt to GDP by almost 50 percentage points by 2054. The baseline is a political choice, but it doesn't change that extending the tax cuts w/o paying for them adds trillions to debt. www.cbo.gov/publication/...

The baseline debate is important because it's about transparency and honesty. What it doesn't change is that extending the 2017 tax cuts costs $4 trillion over a decade. Some friends here do a great job of explaining this for folks who aren't enmeshed in nerdy budget battles.

Aaron Judge's contract pays $40 million this year, but the Yankees are just continuing his current contract so it actually costs $0. Sound ridiculous? This is the "current policy" gimmick some Republicans are mulling for tax cuts. Great metaphors here: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Me convincing myself my 401(k) balance isn't down if I don't check it:

The GOP's reconciliation bill is a moving target, and the menu of options changes daily. Currently, the agenda may exceed $7 trillion over 10 years before offsets. Lawmakers need to pay for new tax cuts/spending to avoid increasing deficits by a third. bipartisanpolicy.org/tcja-offsets/

With skyrocketing government debt + borrowing costs, paying for new spending hikes or tax cuts is critical. At Bipartisan Policy Center we have a new resource with options to pay for $4 trillion in expiring tax cuts. One set of options out today. More next week. bipartisanpolicy.org/tcja-offsets/

A crosswalk to how $45.6 billion in enforcement funding can turn into $2.5 billion in two years, with only 3% of the money actually spent. Of the overall $79.6 billion to the IRS, a larger portion remains ($27.1 billion or 34%).

👋 Bluesky! Want to post a bit here as the 2025 tax debate gets underway in Washington. Created a Tax Starter Pack for other tax folks coming here -- policy wonks, reporters, etc. -- but let me know if I missed you! go.bsky.app/9pFtGbx