Was hat Psychologie mit demokratischer Resilienz und Staatsreform zu tun? Stress verändert, wie wir denken. Er verengt unseren Blick, verstärkt den Status-quo-Bias und lässt uns an Routinen festhalten – selbst dann, wenn die Situation das eigentlich nicht mehr erlaubt.

Scenario Booklet is Out! 📚Foreign Malign Influence in the WB & EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood – 6 Scenarios for 2035 @gppi.bsky.social The scenarios build on expert surveys about critical uncertainties & underrated future threats 🌐Read here reunir-horizon.eu/foreign-mali... @horizoneu.bsky.social

⬇️ Following up with our scenario booklet, we are happy to share our next publication: 📚 𝐀𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐄𝐔 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 🌐 Read here reunir-horizon.eu/d7-1-anticip... @horizoneu.bsky.social @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social #REUNIR #Foresight #EU

🎙️ @sicherheitspod.de #103 ist da. Wir reden über Macht, warum Macht eine neue (alte) Rolle spielt und inwiefern Europa (noch) vergleichsweise machtlos ist. Im zweiten Teil erklärt uns @sofielillistoffel.bsky.social, warum "Narzissmus" eine hilfreiche analytische Linse mit Blick auf die USA bietet.

Warum psychologische Ansätze wie Narzissmus helfen können, 🇩🇪🇪🇺 Außenpolitik strategischer zu machen und aus veralteten Denkmustern auszubrechen (plus Top 3 Dos and Dont’s für den Umgang mit den Trump-USA):

... moderator @bressansar.bsky.social for sharp insights on resilience and hybrid threats and outlook. /2 #EUenlargement #Resilience #HybridThreats

🚨Happening Now Future-Proofing EU Enlargement Against Foreign Malign Influence in the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Georgia&Moldova This panel examines different approaches to hybrid threats & malign influences among candidate countries @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social @horizoneu.bsky.social

🙌 Register and join us on Thursday, 29 January for a panel discussion to learn more about EU enlargement, foreign threats, and future-proofing EU policies. 📅 Thursday, 29 January ⏲️ 18.30-20.00 (CET) 📍DGAP, Rauchstr. 17, 10787 Berlin @horizoneu.bsky.social @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social

Berlin - see you there!

🚨REUNIR event: Future-Proofing EU Enlargement Against Foreign Malign Influence 🙌Join us for a panel discussion (co-organized with DGAP) to learn more about EU enlargement, foreign threats, and future-proofing EU policies. 📅 29 January ⏲️ 18.30-20.00 📍DGAP, Rauchstr. 17, 10787 Berlin Registration👇

I don’t think I’m ready for LinkedIn culture meets the end of NATO

🙈

Save the date: Ahead of #MSC2026 we want to discuss the future of German security policy and its peace, development + humanitarian interlinkages w Sarah Bressan GPPi & Flotilla Admiral Christian Bock Verteidigungsministerium [10 Feb; German+autosubtitles]. Register here: https://ow.ly/qcAl50Y0CJY

"Rather than waiting for the hegemon to restore an order it’s busy dismantling, create your own institutions and agreements that function as intended. Countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.” Important piece by @seva.bsky.social.

What's striking about Trump in terms of forpol is how little actually happens, and how much of what does happen then unhappens. The only things that last are the boat murders, kidnappings and bombings. The energy expended, first on shock and then on processing it all, is still just as exhausting.

Attn news commentators: Trump saying he could use force to obtain Greenland but won’t is not Trump saying he won’t use force to obtain Greenland. It is Trump using force as a threat to obtain Greenland. That is why he mentions it.

Thucydides’ real lesson isn’t about power forcing the weak to accept their fate—it’s about how hubris masquerades as realism.

👊🏼 Wer ist der Feind? @drfranksauer.bsky.social

Wohlstands-BRD about to defend Greenland *and* secure Ukraine

Simply incredible.

@jmcgg.bsky.social art 🫶

an annoying thing about realists insisting they're the no-nonsense reality-based group is that few of their predictions have been based in reality

So you all have opinions about the U.S.

Noch eine top of the flop Liste und ich kollabiere

Außenpolitik-Reform! Das Ende einer Ära und Tag 1 nach der Ankündigung der größten Strukturreform seit Jahrzehnten im Auswärtigen Amt - Was wichtig wird: @projecttogether.bsky.social reform-staat.org/was-ware-wen...

Mit seinem Latein am Ende:

📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢 Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength. The key findings are covered in two reports this year: * ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... * Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

...and less than 24 hours later Condé Nast has fired Lex and the rest of the Teen Vogue political desk, even as stories like this were bringing huge numbers of readers to the site

China intimidated UK university to ditch human rights research, documents show

Der Schaden, den das ZDF mit ihrer schlecht konzipierten Umfrage und der schlampigen Berichterstattung in der Folge ausgelöst hat, ist immens. Man muss sich nur ansehen, wie die Rechtsradikalen feixen.

Georgia: Spectacular downfall of ex-PM accused of having $6.5m in his flat

Today we're talking intelligence analysis/assessment:

Mysterious 'warm blob' breaks records in the North Pacific Ocean

I’m almost there

Der #Bundestag zieht nach: Neuer Unterausschuss für u.a. strategische Vorausschau 🥰 Hier nachlesen, warum es so etwas braucht: internationalepolitik.de/en/wider-die... @internationalepolitik.de @gppi.bsky.social

Very cool piece on the importance of strategic foresight and forward-looking strategy by @bressansar.bsky.social for @gppi.bsky.social : gppi.net/2025/10/08/g...

Seminar papers will be graded on a scale from A+ to AI;DR

I just saw someone use the abbreviation “AI;DR” and I’ll be laughing for a while.

Also wenn ich eine Stelle für “strategische Vorausschau” ausschreiben würde, würde ich ja Vorausschau-Kompetenzen ins Anforderungsprofil schreiben. Oder in die Aufgabenbeschreibung. Oder… es gleich lassen?

Ukraine’s equivalent of Bomber Command is conducting a quietly effective campaign to disrupt Russian fuel supplies. Great investigation led by @olgar.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I’m reluctantly thinking about launching something that helps put all those „x billion $ / €“ headlines in context. I can add new entries from my phone, but I’d actually like to „socialise“ this - allow others to easily submit new data points (with moderation). Good idea? fubits.dev/how-much-is/

So many echoes from this article for US politics....

IR Book of the Week! "AI, Automation, and War" by Anthony King. Rather than heading towards a future of "robot armies", this book shows how AI will be used like other military technological innovations: to improve the lethality of human armies.

Reicht dann vielleicht jetzt mit dem “Kampf gegen den Linksruck”™️, oder?

⚠️ Die kritische Phase ist genau jetzt. Was der nationale #Sicherheitsrat tun muss: 1. Lücken an der Schnittstelle zwischen Auswertung, Strategieformulierung und Entscheidungsfindung schließen - ohne neues, gemeinsames Lagezentrum, mit begrenzten Ressourcen, und gutem Willen aller Ministerien

📣 Online launch event: Action Potentials - Neurotechnology, Brain-Computer Interfaces and Implications for Germany’s and Europe’s Foreign & Security Policy 📆 13 October 2025 ⌚ 16:00-17:00 CET 💻 Online via Zoom

Most work out there argues that it doesn't pay off for center-right parties to move closer to the far-right. Using some of the best evidence yet, this paper shows that the same is true for center *left* parties. Crucial finding as these parties increasingly move in a nativist direction.

Die Stabsstelle muss dem nationalen #Sicherheitsrat "nicht nur politisch opportune, sondern strategisch notwendige Einschätzungen vorlegen. Die Anreizstrukturen dafür müssen von ganz oben, vom Kanzler selbst, kommen" Gastkommentar @loyalmagazin.bsky.social www.reservistenverband.de/magazin-loya...