I interview lots of authors and after years of it I've come to believe that many books should just be magazine articles.

“I wish we lived in the Tom Clancy world where analyst assessments form a decisive input into policy, but often decision makers already have strong assumptions about the situation, and know what they want to do – or don’t want to do.” — Michael Kofman responds to my critique of Ukr. war predictions.

American Black women now have fewer voting rights and reproductive rights than their mothers did at the same age. Progress isn’t a straight line, indeed.

Ok es ist AI aber es ist sehr gut

So I have written something short and serious for edina-defence.org about the European AFV industrial base. It is supposed to be a primer for non-experts. BLUF: We have very good capabilities and good capacities but rely for certain specialty equipment on single or very few non-european suppliers.

billionaire: we need radical solutions for Earth Day. Think bold. Biofuels. Space mirrors. Plankton fertilization. advisor: what about a 2% wealth tax? billionaire: …Cloud seeding. Turbine farms in the Sahara. A Dyson sphere.

Psychologically hard for Europeans to take. But national security has to be built on worst case scenario planning, or it is naivety dressed up as strategy. observer.co.uk/news/interna...

New Policy Brief: 3 recommendations for how the 🇪🇺 can strengthen the 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜, 𝐬𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐨-𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜, & 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 of (potential) Candidate Countries against foreign malign influence. Read here: reunir-horizon.eu/strategic-po... @horizoneu.bsky.social @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social

The Merz government is restructuring Germany’s foreign and security policy apparatus; it needs to find big solutions to big problems. But so far, @bressansar.bsky.social & Philipp Rotmann argue, these changes are happening too slowly and are not radical enough. ip-quarterly.com/en/merz-unfi...

Our new issue, A New German Foreign Policy?, features @lucyaash.bsky.social, @andreasrinke.bsky.social, @bressansar.bsky.social, @wolfgangschmidt.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, @rebeccawire.bsky.social, @fraghi.bsky.social, @johnkampfner.bsky.social & more. ip-quarterly.com/en/spring-20...

Wenn ihr es mir nicht glaubt, dann glaubt es ihm. Oder uns beiden gleichzeitig, z.B. in dieser Podcastfolge @carlomasala1.bsky.social: creators.spotify.com/pod/profile/...

So - astonishingly - Iran has been paying attention to history, notably the Millennium Challenge exercise, which was originally an Iran war game, and in which US Marine Col. Paul van Riper, playing the baddies, handed an invading US force its hat with both its ears in it BY DOING THIS.

The war doesn’t care if it’s yours

Once again the Trump administration will need its European allies who have multiple times the US Navy’s mine clearing capacity. Turns out that for fighting wars in the Middle East, the US needs its European allies. No matter who sits in the White House.

This year’s Oscar-nominated films about ambitious strivers, faded revolutionaries, and exploited workers are defined by “surrealpolitik,” an aesthetic expressing a world “increasingly shaped by irrationality, disruption, and the erosion of established norms.”

Great to have GPPi represented at Raisina Dialogue by @bressansar.bsky.social. Here are some key take-aways. Lots of opportunities for future-oriented cooperation -- and beefing up EU-India think tank ties and German/European EU India literacy.

If you want a detailed thread on Raisina dialogue, look no further - @bressansar.bsky.social has everything you need here:

🇪🇺 EU diplomats in Asia say they see tons of positive visions that propel people forward in places like 🇮🇩 🇮🇳 & the Gulf, while Europeans are low-energy party poopers (visible on Rausina panels, „Things will only get worse“). Futures work is key to turning that around. Let’s do more of it together?

Delhi‘s 🇮🇳 multi-vector balancing towards Europe was very clear in recent years, with large official 🇷🇺🇭🇺 presence at Raisina. I guess next years will show to what extent 🇮🇳 keeps hedging or throws its weight behind reliable (I almost want to say rules-based 👀) partnerships that reduce volatility!

Not just 🇩🇪: India also self-censors in anticipatory disobedience vis-à-vis the U.S. 🇺🇸 Yes, Delhi 🇮🇳 has taken a massive hit last year. But colleagues continue to be surprised by the silence on so many topics where Delhi used to be more self-confident (decapitation strike, sinking an unarmed 🇮🇷 ship)

During my third Raisina dialogue in Delhi 🇮🇳, a few things stood out: - The EU-India relationship is real & more than the result of a hostile geopolitical environment. India needed to be courted for a couple of years but Brussels has done its homework.

In unserem neuen Beitrag für @projecttogether.bsky.social argumentieren @bressansar.bsky.social & ich, dass strategische Vorausschau hier Abhilfe schaffen kann. Richtig eingesetzt, wirkt sie wie angewandte Psychologie, strukturiert Unsicherheit & erweitert den Möglichkeitsraum politischen Handelns.

Was hat Psychologie mit demokratischer Resilienz und Staatsreform zu tun? Stress verändert, wie wir denken. Er verengt unseren Blick, verstärkt den Status-quo-Bias und lässt uns an Routinen festhalten – selbst dann, wenn die Situation das eigentlich nicht mehr erlaubt.

Scenario Booklet is Out! 📚Foreign Malign Influence in the WB & EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood – 6 Scenarios for 2035 @gppi.bsky.social The scenarios build on expert surveys about critical uncertainties & underrated future threats 🌐Read here reunir-horizon.eu/foreign-mali... @horizoneu.bsky.social

⬇️ Following up with our scenario booklet, we are happy to share our next publication: 📚 𝐀𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐄𝐔 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 🌐 Read here reunir-horizon.eu/d7-1-anticip... @horizoneu.bsky.social @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social #REUNIR #Foresight #EU

🎙️ @sicherheitspod.de #103 ist da. Wir reden über Macht, warum Macht eine neue (alte) Rolle spielt und inwiefern Europa (noch) vergleichsweise machtlos ist. Im zweiten Teil erklärt uns @sofielillistoffel.bsky.social, warum "Narzissmus" eine hilfreiche analytische Linse mit Blick auf die USA bietet.

Warum psychologische Ansätze wie Narzissmus helfen können, 🇩🇪🇪🇺 Außenpolitik strategischer zu machen und aus veralteten Denkmustern auszubrechen (plus Top 3 Dos and Dont’s für den Umgang mit den Trump-USA):

... moderator @bressansar.bsky.social for sharp insights on resilience and hybrid threats and outlook. /2 #EUenlargement #Resilience #HybridThreats

🚨Happening Now Future-Proofing EU Enlargement Against Foreign Malign Influence in the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Georgia&Moldova This panel examines different approaches to hybrid threats & malign influences among candidate countries @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social @horizoneu.bsky.social

🙌 Register and join us on Thursday, 29 January for a panel discussion to learn more about EU enlargement, foreign threats, and future-proofing EU policies. 📅 Thursday, 29 January ⏲️ 18.30-20.00 (CET) 📍DGAP, Rauchstr. 17, 10787 Berlin @horizoneu.bsky.social @gppi.bsky.social @bressansar.bsky.social

Berlin - see you there!

🚨REUNIR event: Future-Proofing EU Enlargement Against Foreign Malign Influence 🙌Join us for a panel discussion (co-organized with DGAP) to learn more about EU enlargement, foreign threats, and future-proofing EU policies. 📅 29 January ⏲️ 18.30-20.00 📍DGAP, Rauchstr. 17, 10787 Berlin Registration👇

I don’t think I’m ready for LinkedIn culture meets the end of NATO

🙈

Save the date: Ahead of #MSC2026 we want to discuss the future of German security policy and its peace, development + humanitarian interlinkages w Sarah Bressan GPPi & Flotilla Admiral Christian Bock Verteidigungsministerium [10 Feb; German+autosubtitles]. Register here: https://ow.ly/qcAl50Y0CJY

"Rather than waiting for the hegemon to restore an order it’s busy dismantling, create your own institutions and agreements that function as intended. Countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation.” Important piece by @seva.bsky.social.

What's striking about Trump in terms of forpol is how little actually happens, and how much of what does happen then unhappens. The only things that last are the boat murders, kidnappings and bombings. The energy expended, first on shock and then on processing it all, is still just as exhausting.

Attn news commentators: Trump saying he could use force to obtain Greenland but won’t is not Trump saying he won’t use force to obtain Greenland. It is Trump using force as a threat to obtain Greenland. That is why he mentions it.

Thucydides’ real lesson isn’t about power forcing the weak to accept their fate—it’s about how hubris masquerades as realism.

👊🏼 Wer ist der Feind? @drfranksauer.bsky.social

Wohlstands-BRD about to defend Greenland *and* secure Ukraine

Simply incredible.

@jmcgg.bsky.social art 🫶

an annoying thing about realists insisting they're the no-nonsense reality-based group is that few of their predictions have been based in reality

So you all have opinions about the U.S.

Noch eine top of the flop Liste und ich kollabiere

Außenpolitik-Reform! Das Ende einer Ära und Tag 1 nach der Ankündigung der größten Strukturreform seit Jahrzehnten im Auswärtigen Amt - Was wichtig wird: @projecttogether.bsky.social reform-staat.org/was-ware-wen...

Mit seinem Latein am Ende:

📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢 Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength. The key findings are covered in two reports this year: * ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... * Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/