📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢 Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength. The key findings are covered in two reports this year: * ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... * Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

...and less than 24 hours later Condé Nast has fired Lex and the rest of the Teen Vogue political desk, even as stories like this were bringing huge numbers of readers to the site

China intimidated UK university to ditch human rights research, documents show

Der Schaden, den das ZDF mit ihrer schlecht konzipierten Umfrage und der schlampigen Berichterstattung in der Folge ausgelöst hat, ist immens. Man muss sich nur ansehen, wie die Rechtsradikalen feixen.

Georgia: Spectacular downfall of ex-PM accused of having $6.5m in his flat

Today we're talking intelligence analysis/assessment:

Mysterious 'warm blob' breaks records in the North Pacific Ocean

I’m almost there

Der #Bundestag zieht nach: Neuer Unterausschuss für u.a. strategische Vorausschau 🥰 Hier nachlesen, warum es so etwas braucht: internationalepolitik.de/en/wider-die... @internationalepolitik.de @gppi.bsky.social

Very cool piece on the importance of strategic foresight and forward-looking strategy by @bressansar.bsky.social for @gppi.bsky.social : gppi.net/2025/10/08/g...

Seminar papers will be graded on a scale from A+ to AI;DR

I just saw someone use the abbreviation “AI;DR” and I’ll be laughing for a while.

Also wenn ich eine Stelle für “strategische Vorausschau” ausschreiben würde, würde ich ja Vorausschau-Kompetenzen ins Anforderungsprofil schreiben. Oder in die Aufgabenbeschreibung. Oder… es gleich lassen?

Ukraine’s equivalent of Bomber Command is conducting a quietly effective campaign to disrupt Russian fuel supplies. Great investigation led by @olgar.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I’m reluctantly thinking about launching something that helps put all those „x billion $ / €“ headlines in context. I can add new entries from my phone, but I’d actually like to „socialise“ this - allow others to easily submit new data points (with moderation). Good idea? fubits.dev/how-much-is/

So many echoes from this article for US politics....

IR Book of the Week! "AI, Automation, and War" by Anthony King. Rather than heading towards a future of "robot armies", this book shows how AI will be used like other military technological innovations: to improve the lethality of human armies.

Reicht dann vielleicht jetzt mit dem “Kampf gegen den Linksruck”™️, oder?

⚠️ Die kritische Phase ist genau jetzt. Was der nationale #Sicherheitsrat tun muss: 1. Lücken an der Schnittstelle zwischen Auswertung, Strategieformulierung und Entscheidungsfindung schließen - ohne neues, gemeinsames Lagezentrum, mit begrenzten Ressourcen, und gutem Willen aller Ministerien

📣 Online launch event: Action Potentials - Neurotechnology, Brain-Computer Interfaces and Implications for Germany’s and Europe’s Foreign & Security Policy 📆 13 October 2025 ⌚ 16:00-17:00 CET 💻 Online via Zoom

Most work out there argues that it doesn't pay off for center-right parties to move closer to the far-right. Using some of the best evidence yet, this paper shows that the same is true for center *left* parties. Crucial finding as these parties increasingly move in a nativist direction.

Die Stabsstelle muss dem nationalen #Sicherheitsrat "nicht nur politisch opportune, sondern strategisch notwendige Einschätzungen vorlegen. Die Anreizstrukturen dafür müssen von ganz oben, vom Kanzler selbst, kommen" Gastkommentar @loyalmagazin.bsky.social www.reservistenverband.de/magazin-loya...

Flipping through the latest Foreign Affairs this AM. 15 essay authors, 2 are women. 48 books reviewed, 7 by women.

Hybride Kriegführung von allen Seiten:

Wäre dann jetzt bereit dass der NSR auch wirklich kommt

This is so dark.

My team at OSTP helped craft and implement the Biden administration’s scientific integrity policies to help keep politics out of government science. Unsurprisingly, the Trump administration has rolled back these safeguards for independent science. It’s an open invitation to political interference.

Have you ever heard of a country that does not protest when another country bombs & destroys its factories in a third country? Cowardly US under Trump: First Boeing in Kyiv. Today Flex in Mukhachevo in Western Ukraine. Is the US still a country? (I wonder as a US citizen.)

Armed conflicts involve governments, rebel groups, militias, communal factions, and foreign forces — all interacting in complex ways. The result? A web of violence that can feel overwhelming to understand. That's why we launch the Conflict Networks Explorer peaceobservatory.com/conflict-networks

Deshalb, liebe Journalist*innen, fragen Sie mich bitte nicht mehr nach Kommentaren über "Friedensverhandlungen". Darüber spreche ich nicht, weil es sie nicht gibt.

Wenn ich noch eine journalistische Anfrage zu den "laufenden Friedensverhandlungen" bekomme, trete ich in einen unbefristeten Interviewstreik. Es gibt keine Friedensverhandlungen. Es gibt keine Waffenstillstandsverhandlungen. Es gibt einen diplomatisch dilettierenden und marodierenden

If you heavily base your paid research output in my field of expertise on 1 unpaid conversation with me, then please at least cite me correctly? It’s GPPi, not GSPI (long form also wrong), paper title is „Making Foresight Count: Success Factors for Futures Analysis in Foreign and Security Policy“

Here is the chart showing the growth of reported protest over time, 2025 vs. 2017, referenced in the piece below.

🚨Call for policy papers! With @dgap.org and IPRE, we’re looking at how hybrid threats shape elections in the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood. Deadline for pitches: Aug 24. Authors join our Nov colloquium in Chișinău. Details 👉 dgap.org/en/press/new... Spread the word!

Und die #Bundesregierung hat die ganze Zeit dabei zugeschaut. Es war seit langem absehbar, dass es hierzu kommt. Menschen mit Aufnahmezusage, denen Deutschland Hilfe versprochen hat. #Afghanistan #Pakistan www.instagram.com/p/DNTRfqNIZs...

Why don’t more climate activists turn to sabotage? Worth the read, this is how you reclaim right-wing narratives like a pro👇 carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Eine deutsche Gesellschaft, die 70 Jahre lang jegliche Kritik als (kommunistischen) Antiamerikanismus abwehrt ist sehr sehr langsam hier die Realität zu erkennen - inklusive Journalismus und Medien.

Für Bayern nochmal besonders gerne mit Bild erklärt

This is Stage 4 of disordered discourse: institutionalisation, when a fringe narrative builds its own system of validation and embeds it in policy.

Verification becomes selective citation from within a narrow network of trusted sources. Deliberation becomes performance, with boundaries enforced by doctrine. Accountability becomes loyalty to an internal worldview, not the public.

In disordered discourse, those functions aren’t removed, they’re simulated. The forms remain, but the content is replaced with a closed system’s logic and values. What we see with RFK Jr is someone embedded in disordered discourse simulating VDA functions for the ends of the in group.

NEW: 2025 is a pivotal year for violent #extremism + #prevention. Prevention risks stagnating - shrinking budgets, increasing polarization, mainstreaming of extremism & new hybrid threats - from the #US to the #EU and regions with foreign aid in #PCVE #USAID. What's happening - and what to do:

Yep. RFK Jr has slashed vaccine research. You need to know how perilous that is for the world www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... by @profdevisridhar.bsky.social "This isn’t just bad policy. It’s a generational setback." RFK Jr = "a serious risk to national & global health security."

Oh Gott bitte was bitte nicht

#Germany is getting a national #security council. What it will and should look like + critical points of success/failure answered by me, for main public broadcaster @tagesschau /ARD: www.tagesschau.de/inland/innen...

#Germany is getting a national #security council. What it will and should look like + critical points of success/failure answered by me, for main public broadcaster @tagesschau /ARD: www.tagesschau.de/inland/innen...

Wie der nationale Sicherheitsrat aussehen soll? @tagesschau.bsky.social fragt, ich antworte. Wichtig vor allem: Wird ihm „das nötige Gewicht verliehen, um auch kritischen Input zu leisten…Oder nur das, was politisch opportun ist?" www.tagesschau.de/inland/innen...

How does #NATO look to the future? How can the alliance - and all of us - step up their #futures game? I spent a few months researching this as Eisenhower Defense Fellow and now you can read my latest analysis in the NATO Defense College’s Future Series: www.ndc.nato.int/wp-content/u...