'[...] it is highly unlikely that the #Gulf states will turn away from the #US, but their leaders will almost certainly resume the strategic hedging that characterised the end of Biden’s presidency.' @cinziabianco.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/out-...

#UNGA80 🧵 1/ Today, Mahmoud Abbas virtually joins #UNGA80. On Sunday, Australia, Britain, Canada and Portugal recognized a Palestinian state. What can we expect from Germany? 🔗https://www.dw.com/en/germany-uk-france-say-gaza-humanitarian-crisis-must-end/live-73407430

✍️ Israel's strike on Doha is a sobering recalibration for Gulf rulers. If they once viewed US influence over Israel as stabilising, they now face the possibility that Netanyahu pursues a unilateral vision free from US constraints, writes @cinziabianco.bsky.social 👇 buff.ly/03Iba63

Israel’s initial response to Oct 7 helped Gulf states by weakening Iran but it is now entrenching conflict, fragmenting Arab states & pulling Gulf states towards escalation, all of which also threatens Euro interests. @cinziabianco.bsky.social on post-Doha dynamics ecfr.eu/article/out-...

The Israeli attacks on Doha, and America’s support of them, has caused Gulf leaders to majorly rethink their security, writes @cinziabianco.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social https://bit.ly/4puZHx8

✍️ NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by @cinziabianco.bsky.social: The Israeli attacks on Doha, and America’s support of them, has caused #Gulf leaders to majorly rethink their security. This could lead to a new Gulf-led security format 👇 buff.ly/03Iba63

The Israeli strike in Doha has forced a rethink of Gulf security and pushed leaders to deploy a new vision in response. What is this vision? How should we look at the whole picture? My analysis for @ecfrmena.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/out-...

Se prima i leader del Golfo consideravano l'influenza 🇺🇸 su Israele come un fattore di stabilità, ora devono affrontare la possibilità che Netanyahu persegua una visione unilaterale libera dai vincoli americani. ✍️ @cinziabianco.bsky.social x @ecfrmena.bsky.social

This is a sobering recalibration for Gulf rulers. If they once viewed US influence over Israel as stabilising, they now face the possibility that Netanyahu pursues a unilateral vision free from American constraints, writes @cinziabianco.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social https://bit.ly/4puZHx8

📰 @cinziabianco.bsky.social speaks to La Repubblica about Israel's strike on Qatar and its wider regional ramifications 👇 buff.ly/00rix70

UAE leadership in Doha. This was not arranged yesterday. Like I said when MbZ visited MbS goal is to coordinate an Arab front vs Iranian weakness and Israeli recklessness, and it looks like the Emiratis took the lead in shaping a tripartite leadership (Saudi, UAE, Qatar) for such front.

📰 “The GCC response may be a realisation that US security guarantees are no longer as valuable as they have been thought to be for so long.” comments @cinziabianco.bsky.social on yesterday's Israeli strikes on Qatar for @aljazeera.com 👇 buff.ly/A35REvw

We are no longer in a situation of red lines. Israel will keep on attacking whatever they deem appropriate, and it will be stopped, or not. The time frame within which this all plays out will be decades, I suspect.

“Hosting US bases and US military forces was an effective form of deterrence, [but that has] now evaporated, bothinf is off the table” I said to @AJEnglish: www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/202...

For a while now GCC folks have been extremely worried that Israeli behaviour was unhinged - but nobody thought they could be targeted. Here a pic of the building in Qatar where an Israeli drone tried to take out a Hamas delegation discussing a potential deal.

📰 For Formiche, @cinziabianco.bsky.social comments on the meeting between Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed and the opportunity for regional/international leadership for the Gulf countries 👇 buff.ly/7M5R07P

This is major! After the bromance came to a halt and a LONG time not seeing each other, #UAE #MbZ visits #SaudiArabia with his brother and security czar Tahnoon bin Zayed. #MbS himself welcomes them. Key dossiers: - Sudan de-escalation - Syrian stability - Israeli vs Iran - Escalation in Yemen

Gearing up to come back to work on my fave region next month, with a new very special PA

Really bad news for the climate. Really bad news for you and your children. Only 24 out of the 99 largest banks worlwide count on a plan to phase out coal… by 2040!! Who takes the risk?? We all!! “Banks Plough Billions Into Coal ‘as if Glasgow Never Happened’“ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Our latest: Enough is enough: Europe needs to oppose Israel’s aggression, with @hlovatt.bsky.social & Ellie Geranmayeh At this pivotal moment European gov supporting Israeli strikes as “doing our dirty work” must come to their senses ecfr.eu/article/enou... @ecfr.eu

Calling for restraint and diplomacy, without condemning Israel or disavowing its strikes: France, the United Kingdom and Germany reacted in a somewhat acrobatic manner, to the vast offensive launched by Israel against Iran” www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...

Now we shall test the assumption that Iran would retaliate on the Gulf monarchies or on targets based on their territory. Which I think has been false for months.

🎧 "The talks seem to be going in the right direction, but it remains to be seen what the American ask is going to be", comments Dina Esfandiary on US-Iran nuclear talks in an @ECFR.eu podcast episode discussing Donald Trump's latest visit to the Middle East buff.ly/oHX35vC

The Houthi attacks show how continued structural instability in & around the Red Sea is increasing the vulnerabilities in one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints. Read @CamilleLons.bsky.social & @cinziabianco.bsky.social 's essay in @ecfr.eu 's interactive map 👇 bit.ly/44CmwXI

Bursting out of my maternity leave bubble just to say that Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar & UAE was so successful that it might have turned the clock back on what seemed an unstoppable deterioration of US-Gulf relations. They always wanted him to win but he is exceeding expectations. Discuss:

4/ #GCC countries: @camillelons.bsky.social & @cinziabianco.bsky.social demonstrate that the GCC countries have increased their strategic focus on the Red Sea region with investments, weapons sales & diplomatic soft power.

The Red Sea is more than a vital shipping lane—it’s a flashpoint where global trade, regional rivalries, and military tensions converge. @camillelons.bsky.social maps the power struggles shaping this strategic chokepoint. @ecfrmena.bsky.social buff.ly/RQQpO7F

📚 The Gulf Monarchies after the Arab Spring by @cinziabianco.bsky.social explores how GCC states redefined their security policies post-2011. Read the full review by Maleeha Jamil: www.linkedin.com/pulse/book-r...

Best birthday present ever from hubby. LoL @ecfr.eu @ecfrmena.bsky.social

I wrote for @thetimes this Saturday about Finny, the grimness of life without him, coping mechanisms, and dealing with Christmas. The article has a couple of gorgeous photos of Finny too. www.thetimes.com/article/342b...

4/ Saudi-Iran diplomacy offers a rare path to prevent deepening conflict in the Middle East & support regional stability. Europeans should see this diplomacy as a chance to address their core interests, write @jbdacey.bsky.social & @cinziabianco.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/...

Today in Brussels there is the first-ever EU-GCC leader’s summit in over 3 decades of relations. Read what to expect in my ECFR analysis: ecfr.eu/article/summ...

Some decent MidEast Starter Packs out there already, so I thought I would be a Gulf-focused on here. Many accounts still inactive but hopefully will come alive as more people join: go.bsky.app/DhTLTCx

NEW: 18 months after the deal btwn #SaudiArabia & #Iran, amid a major regional escalation w/#Israel, me & Julien Barnes-Dacey analyse the detente’s impact on geopolitics from #Syria to #Yemen #Iraq #Lebanon & we give ideas on how #Europe can support stability. Read the paper: ecfr.eu/publication/...

Today in Brussels there is the first-ever EU-GCC leader’s summit in over 3 decades of relations. Read what to expect in my ECFR analysis: ecfr.eu/article/summ...

The first-ever leaders summit between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council states on 16 October can inject political energy in shared projects like connectivity, energy climate, trade. Read more in my latest commentary for European Council on Foreign Relations: tinyurl.com/49vtzcdm

NEW: 18 months after the deal btwn #SaudiArabia & #Iran, amid a major regional escalation w/#Israel, me & Julien Barnes-Dacey analyse the detente’s impact on geopolitics from #Syria to #Yemen #Iraq #Lebanon & we give ideas on how #Europe can support stability. Read the paper: ecfr.eu/publication/...

« Il est certain que le président émirati voudra partager à Washington sa vision pour l’après-guerre à Gaza», soutient Cinzia Bianco, suggérant que MBZ souhaitera parler aux acteurs-clés des deux camps politiques, alors que la course à la présidence s’annonce très serrée. tinyurl.com/27vn9v45

I can’t wait to be in Bologna next week for my book talk at John Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. The event is *open to the public* so if you are in Bologna and want to swing by, you can! You can also follow online by registering at: jh.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Join us for this Middle East Institute - National University of Singapore virtual talk on Monday Feb 26 - 9am Europe time on my new book about Gulf security calculus in turbulent times! Masterfully moderated by JeanLoup Samaan. More info & Register now to attend here: mei.nus.edu.sg/event/book-t...

My latest for ECFR is on #UAE geoeconomics strategy, their geography of connectivity re #Asia & #Africa, how they plan to play their #BRICS membership, how they look at #sanctions, #exportcontrols vs #China and why they are testing #dedollarization. ecfr.eu/article/rest...

Huge thanks to Prof Marc Lynch and POMEPS for hosting me for this podcast about my new academic book “The Gulf monarchies after the Arab Spring: Threats and Security”. We chat about the findings and the goals of the book. Enjoy it here and let me know what you think: pomeps.org/the-gulf-mon...

On this week's episode of the podcast, Cinzia Bianco joins @abuaardvark.bsky.social to discuss her new book, The Gulf Monarchies After the Arab Spring: Threats and Security. Listen here: pomeps.org/the-gulf-mon...

Join us for this Middle East Institute - National University of Singapore virtual talk on Monday Feb 26 - 9am Europe time on my new book about Gulf security calculus in turbulent times! Masterfully moderated by JeanLoup Samaan. More info & Register now to attend here: mei.nus.edu.sg/event/book-t...

UNREAL! 🎉 After 8 years of research & hundreds of interviews in #Riyadh, #UAE, #Oman, #Kuwait, #Qatar, #Bahrain, here is the book from my PhD thesis! More info here, where you can (and should!) ask your librarian/institution to get you a copy: manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526170842

Gulf states talking a good game on Gaza but their own interests come first and they are mostly hedging. — Cinzia Bianco and Camille Lons for ECFR ecfr.eu/article/nati...

My latest for ECFR w/CamilleLons on how the #Gulf (esp #Qatar, #UAE, #SaudiArabia) see #Gaza, #Israel and the regional spill-overs ie in #RedSea, #Yemen & #Houthis. Lots already written but we think there is more to say, beyond hot takes. Feedback welcome ecfr.eu/article/nati...