One analytical model shows that, as of November 5th, the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. has already caused the deaths of 600,000 people, two-thirds of them children. https://newyorkermag.visitlink.me/jUzNSc

My take on the Gaza 'plan' in the Financial Times: "However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.” on.ft.com/4n3w8jU

My take on the Gaza 'plan' in the Financial Times: "However imperfect it is, it prevents worse prospects, notably the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.” on.ft.com/4n3w8jU

My latest column in the Financial Times: "“Has Israel become the new Iran?” is not the debate the enthusiastic architects of the Abraham Accords envisioned playing out across the Gulf region following Tuesday’s Israeli attack in Qatar."

Read Hasan Alhasan and @emile-hokayem.bsky.social on how the Arab Gulf states can “break the cycle of conflict and instability that plagues the Middle East”:

“The Arab Gulf states should step in to mediate a lasting deal between Iran and the United States, however slim the chances of success,” argue Hasan Alhasan and @emile-hokayem.bsky.social.

I have done a general, open access piece on the common misconceptions about the fighting in al-Suwayda'. Too many crude, inaccurate talking points are being circulated among analysts and observers and contributing to the tensions. This needs to stop now www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/misconcept...

Good @emile-hokayem.bsky.social piece on why U.S. and Israeli post-war triumphalism isn’t shared by Iran’s Gulf Arab rivals, who fear that they’re heading into an unstable, dangerous, and long-lasting crisis. @financialtimes.com: on.ft.com/4nny487

My take on the implications of the US-Israel strikes on Iran for the Gulf states in today’s Financial Times: “The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.” on.ft.com/3I1yyAG

My take on the implications of the US-Israel strikes on Iran for the Gulf states in today’s Financial Times: “The Gulf states must now plan for a prolonged period of uncertainty and instability. From their perspective, the war has been inconclusive.” on.ft.com/3I1yyAG

On current trends, Israeli and Iranian government credibility appear to be converging at a point well below zero. Netanyahu speech: www.gov.il/en/pages/spo... via @shashj.bsky.social

2003 US-UK invasion of Iraq was an absolute tragedy. It also gave us a test to evaluate analysis and advocacy. So if you are an official who sold that war, a public intellectual who advocated it, a senior commander who assured us victory is around the corner, please consider sitting this one out.

My piece in the Financial Times about Israel’s attack on Iran.

This is the easiest, least meaningful, most performative move Western countries could have taken to pressure Israel. For all the talk about a ‘shift’ in recent weeks, it is increasingly obvious that nothing substantial will happen. The western debacle continues. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

At least he jumped before this atrocious scheme began. Can’t say as much of the geniuses behind the US pier debacle last year.

‘Adults are going hungrier to keep children better fed. The most vulnerable – infants, pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers and others needing special diets – are already starving.’ Alex de Waal on famine in Gaza, from the blog: www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2025/ma...

There will be a lot of euphemisms about "voluntary migration" and "humanitarian zones" and whatnot, but this is ultimately a plan for ethnic cleansing www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...

If Hamas doesn’t capitulate by May 15, Israel will seize Gaza permanently, destroy all still-standing buildings, and force all civilians into a small area on the border, to be held captive in perpetuity unless they leave Palestine. @barakravid.bsky.social @axios.com www.axios.com/2025/05/05/i...

Trump heads to the Gulf states on May 13. There will be pomp and theatrics as in 2017 but the Gulf states face a very different set of choices and challenges. I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy! www.ft.com/content/a813...

Trump heads to the Gulf states on May 13. There will be pomp and theatrics as in 2017 but the Gulf states face a very different set of choices and challenges. I examine US-Gulf relations in this piece in the Financial Times. Enjoy! www.ft.com/content/a813...

Very dark outlook for post-Assad Syria. Fragile, fragmented militia governance already dragged down by a failing economy, now made so much worse by Trump’s double sucker punches: end of USAID removes 40% of aid, and this back-and-forth sanctions tango deters desperately needed foreign investment.

I have a new report out with @carnegieendowment.org on the current state of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 project, highlighting areas of achievement but with an argument for greater bottom-up accountability to curb its excesses (spending and otherwise). carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Congratulations to my IISS colleagues for the launch of Military Balance 2025 — all you need to know about global defence trends

Reading about these tech geniuses descending on US government agencies to 'fix' them takes me back 2 decades to the run-up to the Iraq war.

Any analyst, any media outlet, any politician who uses sanitized words such as ‘transfer’ or ‘relocation’ to describe what is ethnic cleansing is complicit in this egregious policy.

🧵 THREAD: Our reporter spent the past year reporting inside the State Department, trying to answer the central question of Biden’s foreign policy: How did the U.S. let Israel get away with widespread horrors in Gaza?

Me on Syria in the New Yorker. Read if interested!

Want to know why the Assad regime crumbled so fast? I spoke to Isaac Chotiner of the New Yorker. www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...

My book on the Abraham Accords is out! I explore the covert ties between Israel and several Gulf States in the lead up to the Accords, how and why these agreements were negotiated, and what they mean for the region including in the wake of Gaza. Grateful to my editors @columbiaup.bsky.social

IT IS OUT!!! @rmomtaz.bsky.social and I spent 2 years leading this study of Eastern Mediterranean dynamics. We are very proud to present this IISS Strategic Dossier which is in-depth survey of this highly dynamic and volatile region. www.iiss.org/publications...

IT IS OUT!!! @rmomtaz.bsky.social and I spent 2 years leading this study of Eastern Mediterranean dynamics. We are very proud to present this IISS Strategic Dossier which is in-depth survey of this highly dynamic and volatile region. www.iiss.org/publications...

Some self-adverstisement, if you want to know how the Syrian opposition institutionalised its military forces and the role of foreign actors based on interviews with HTS and Ahrar leaders: academic.oup.com/book/57951/c... for the full book: fdslive.oup.com/www.oup.com/...

I hope that when Biden announces the ceasefire in Israel-Lebanon, he does so without any misplaced triumphalism, celebration of US diplomacy, smirk or laugh. Some decency and sobriety are in order. This has not been a good year for US diplomacy or for the Middle East.

Intent on leaving the White House on the worst possible note, the Biden administration just vetoed yet another UNSC resolution on Gaza. apnews.com/article/un-g...

My comment in the @financialtimes.com today looks at how Syria's Assad is navigating a violent and complex landscape: "Assad has always regarded the offering of concessions as a mark of weakness. Better to remain steadfast and wait for the environment to change." www.ft.com/content/049a...

My comment in the @financialtimes.com today looks at how Syria's Assad is navigating a violent and complex landscape: "Assad has always regarded the offering of concessions as a mark of weakness. Better to remain steadfast and wait for the environment to change." www.ft.com/content/049a...

To crown a year full of political & moral debacles on Palestine (pier, vetoes, attacks on UNRWA/ICJ/ICC, sanctions on IDF units, closed eyes on settlements etc), Biden administration has chosen to discard its own standards and effectively allow Israel to strangle Gazans nytimes.com/2024/11/12/u...