I’m sorry, but did you say that they are FORCING the people that they have CAPTURED to WORK, BEATING those who refuse? I think there’s a word for that.

🇺🇦🇸🇪 Sweden donates 16 JAS Gripen C/D from its current fleet & sells 20 newer models E/F to Ukraine. Financing for the latter comes from the €90 bn EU loan that was made possible when Orbán left office. The C/D will be delivered soon. Gripen’s Meteor missiles will push Russian bombers further into 🇷🇺.

Sonny Rollins’s passing has put me in a sentimental mood. There’s a case to be made that he was the most important person in my father’s life, bar none, and I say that with love. After all, I only came into my father’s life in 1972. Sonny Rollins had been his Lord and Savior since the 1950s.+

It is with deep sorrow and profound love that we announce the passing of Sonny Rollins. The Saxophone Colossus died this afternoon at his home in Woodstock, NY at the age of 95. 1/2

Varför klättrade partiledaren för den turkiska oppositionen upp på ett polisfordon igår? Strax medverkar jag i Studio Ett för att förklara händelseförloppet med den dramatiska polisräden mot oppositionspartiet CHP i Ankara igår. Se till att samla familjen runt radion!

🇸🇪🇺🇦 “Where else in Europe can we find 110 brigades?” Jonson said. “Where else in Europe can we find the innovation system that Ukraine has provided? Where else can we find the industrial capacity as well?”

Indeed, I raised much the same warning in my very first Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/paultlev...

“Jag tror att Erdogan har fattat beslutet att han inte kan tillåta samma sak som hände Orbán, händer honom.” Mina kommentarer till TT idag.

Protagonist: Kemal Kilicdaroglu, enabled and emboldened by Ankara. Instruments: Lawfare, crude force, and stigmatisation of the CHP, Ankara's Aim: Regime survival by degrading adversaries to the extent that their reconstitution is impossible or difficult,

Outside the CHP headquarters. Police is employing pepper spray against party functionaries trying to hold their ground.

Ultimately, what’s happening in Turkey is that the government is trying to capture the largest opposition party, the CHP, also the country’s oldest party. Today, what honestly looks like a bunch of gangsters (escorted by police) appear poised to try to force their way into the party headquarters.

So instead of JCPOA, a comprehensive agreement with verified control mechanisms, we have a “largely negotiated” memo for a temporary ceasefire in preparation for actual negotiations about limiting enrichment. The best anyone can hope for is for Trump to restore at least some of what he broke.

Which of the Trump cabinet members who are eligible for dismissal according to MAGA bylaws will be next? A) Kelly Loeffler B) Brooke Rollins C) Linda McMahon

Vad som hänt i USA är alltså att Trump stämt och förlikats med sig själv. I överenskommelsen förlåter han sig själv för alla skatteskulder, förbjuder alla framtida skatterevisioner & sätter av 20 miljarder kronor av skattebetalarnas pengar som han kan ge till vem han vill. Typ.

U.S. agents reportedly promised 200,000 $ to Greenlanders who would sign a petition demanding to join the USA. There were no takers, but hundreds protest the opening of a giant and mostly empty new U.S. consulate on the island of 56,500. There were two employees in the old consulate.

Özel is saying that he will stay in the CHP headquarters. “I am not going anywhere.” What will the now reinstated old CHP leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, do?

🇭🇺‼️ Claimed as photo after explosion at Hungary's MOL refinery

Listening to people like A. Wess Mitchell or Bridge Colby is unbearable. Mitchell uses phrases like “great power competition” that sound serious, but he’s standing in front of a burning house with a clown dancing on the roof. This episode is an hour-long exercise in putting lipstick on a pig. 🧐🤡🔥

I’m sorry but what kind of “big apology” does Dendias want from Ukraine? “We are terribly sorry that you are adversely affected by our defense against Russia’s total war of conquest. We’ll try to keep it down.”

I genuinely wish all the good bluesky folk wishing for a second reconstruction the best of luck but from a European perspective this is where we are at.

The corruption of this administration is on a scale that European leaders need to consider the longterm foreign policy implications. Either the next administration roots it out & reforms the system or 🇺🇸 will remain on this path towards a banana super power even if Dems win 2028.+

Putin's three-day special military operation reaps further benefits for the Russian people. For Europe, fighting a hybrid war against Russia, a lesson: It's not enough to work on defense. You need to be able to counterstrike and take the fight to your opponent as well.

A fully funded Ph.D. position in international relations at Stockholm University is now open for applications. The student will be working as part of a project exploring attitudes towards EU enlargement. su.varbi.com/en/what:job/...

Israeli belligerence and Iran’s attacks on Gulf states during the war are both prompting realignments in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have already struck a defense agreement, and now Turkey wants in, or at least some other tripartite agreement.

Jeez.

"Deterrence by punishment today"!

In case you didn't check in here yesterday, I published the second and final installment of my miniseries on Europe's (in)ability to deter Russian hybrid warfare. I discuss crazy stuff like sabotage and assassinations, so don't miss it. And here is the full cartoon, which summarizes my advice 👌:

❗️Det har länge förvånat mig att svensk media inte hårdbevakar SD:s och deras politiska vänners utländska kontakter och bidragsgivare. Kan vi hoppas på mer sånt nu, efter Orbáns fall? Redan för en månad sedan förutspådde @paultlevin.bsky.social det. Läs🧵👇

Delar denna igen på förekommen anledning. Jag har ganska länge tjatat om att nog även svenska högerradikala aktörer fått del av ungerska och eventuellt ursprungligen ryska pengar. Nu börjar det komma ut.+

Här finns det nog mer att gräva i.

My bold (and, in a double sense, offensive?) recommendations for how European actors can develop hybrid-warfare deterrence capabilities vis-à-vis Russia (and others).

Är det något som svenska myndigheter (Polisen, Försvarsmakten) vet om Palantir som inte tyska militären förstår?

An interesting detail in this story is that al-Saadi, the Iranian suspect charged in a U.S. court on Friday with plotting terror attacks, was detained by Turkish security forces when traveling from Iran to Russia, and then handed over to the U.S. It suggests an improvement in 🇺🇸-🇹🇷 relations.

The fact that some drones over Moscow can make these turns without being impeded speaks volumes. More than 300 drones were used for the operation against targets in Moscow, Russia, and they have likely overwhelmed in some areas the Russian air defense.

Just tuned in to the latest ECFR podcast for what I assumed would be a discussion of the future of liberalism with some interesting thinker. Turns out to be a discussion with Curtis-explicitly anti-democratic-race-baiting-Jarvin, who thinks that slavery is a “natural human relationship”. Seriously?

I long ago promised a follow-up to my five-part Substack series on Russia's hybrid war against democracy in the West & beyond. Here's the first of two posts exploring Europe's hybrid warfare capabilities. In this post, I argue that Europe's focus so far amounts to getting better at taking punches.+

Kul att få prata om världsläget och turkisk utrikespolitik på Medelhavsmuseet igår kväll. Tack till alla som kom för att lyssna och ställa kloka frågor!

Swarms of several hundred Shahed drones over Ukraine today. Looks to my untrained eye as if Russia is trying to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. It won't be too bold an assumption to say that they are probably not all seeking military targets... 🤬

Trump: “We thought the Kurds were going to give [the Iranian protesters] weapons, but the Kurds disappointed us. The Kurds take, take, take… I am very disappointed in the Kurds.”

Happy Europe day everybody! 🇪🇺 In the midst of all the negative news, let’s not lose sight of the fact that for centuries European peoples fought near constant wars against each other. Now these same peoples have joined forces and cooperate to solve shared problems. That’s a remarkable achievement.

I have been fear-mongering about Russia's full-scale hybrid war against liberal democracy for some time now. To understand my POV I really recommend this scoop (a quick read). Russia plans to promote pro-Moscow opinion leaders & place them in electable places in the Armenian opposition's lists.+

Valiant protesters notwithstanding, I fear that Georgia has already been lost to Putin’s men. Now he has set his sights on Armenia. Hosting the EPC & inviting Zelenskyy was a brave thing to do by Pashinyan. Now he needs our help to counter Russian hybrid war.+

The President of the United States now makes nuclear threats against non-nuclear states just as recklessly & unconvincingly as Vladimir Putin. I am glad everyone chose to ignore his latest attempt at nuclear blackmail much like we ignore Putin’s. It’s still insane.

Apart from all the other Saudi concerns over the operation, maybe MBS just didn’t want to be seen to be “kissing Trump’s ass…” Who would ever have thought that bullying all your allies comes at a price?

#BREAKING at @cbsnews.com - Two U.S. Navy destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz came under renewed attack on Thursday, enduring what American officials described as a fiercer and more sustained Iranian assault than the barrage the warships faced only days earlier www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-des...

Peacefire over Iran.

🇮🇷👀 Air defenses active in Tehran, Iran.

The Swedish government lowers its growth forecast for the 8th time due to, well … Trump. The opposition: “The Swedish economy was apparently not as Trump-proof as the [finance minister] had said.”+

NATO is the cornerstone of European defence. We agree that we must work together on strengthening the Europe’s contribution to NATO. A more European NATO is long overdue. (2/3)

I wrote a very short political parable with some very sage advice: Don't put a child in the driver's seat.