Recently we've seen another wave of publications about Dmitry Kozak, the alleged anti-war senior official now with a reform plan for Putin's Russia. Pertsev here argues these publications aren't good news for Kozak @RiddleRussia ridl.io/kozak-s-retu...

What is the "Chaos Theory" in Russian foreign policy? How does it help explain the logic of Russia's actions on the international stage? How does the Russian leadership envision the future world order? Russia Talk @aivengo96.bsky.social with @abarbashin.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-zy...

My 2025 Russia-Africa in review for Riddle Russia: ridl.io/russia-afric...

2. My latest piece for Riddle on the fiscal problems the Irkutsk and Kemerovo Regions are facing as their dominant industries are struggling. ridl.io/irkutsk-and-...

Russian state is caught in a self-reinforcing paradox: every effort to formalize economic life through wider VAT, digital tracking, and stricter enforcement simply incubates more sophisticated evasion techniques while adding bureaucratic bloat and reporting burdens. ridl.io/informal-eco...

In 2025 Moscow proved unable to impose its rules on Azerbaijan, now the undisputed master of the situation. Armenia, in its dialogue with Baku, prefers other «advocates» over Moscow. ridl.io/the-end-of-r...

While Putin talks up a “multipolar world,” pro-Kremlin pundits are pushing another concept to justify Russia’s war against Ukraine. Political analyst @abarbashin.bsky.social breaks down “Chaos Theory” for Meduza. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

The "Direct Line" has ceased to yield tangible benefits and is beginning to cause direct harm. Putin now appears as «Mr. Later» postponing problem-solving indefinitely for the sake of his priorities while visibly avoiding uncomfortable discussions. ridl.io/mr-later/

"The economic and fiscal problems of the Irkutsk and the Kemerovo Region serve as early warning of what may soon come to other Russian regions that rely on vulnerable industries" @minczifra.bsky.social ridl.io/irkutsk-and-...

What have we learned about the state of Russian society in 2025? How has the attitude toward the war and peace negotiations changed? How has the position of the Russian anti-war emigration changed? Does it still maintain connections with Russia? www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLfp...

In what state is the Russian economy entering 2025? What are the main problematic points in it? How might this affect Russia's ability to continue the war in Ukraine? Russia Talk with Inozemtsev youtube.com/watch?v=UbQioNH1TRs&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY

My newest (and I promise, the last one for this year) on the developing fiscal problems in Irkutsk and Kemerovo, for Riddle.

"The economic and fiscal problems of the Irkutsk and the Kemerovo Region serve as early warning of what may soon come to other Russian regions that rely on vulnerable industries" @minczifra.bsky.social ridl.io/irkutsk-and-...

The "Direct Line" has ceased to yield tangible benefits and is beginning to cause direct harm. Putin now appears as «Mr. Later» postponing problem-solving indefinitely for the sake of his priorities while visibly avoiding uncomfortable discussions. ridl.io/mr-later/

My new at Riddle Russia: Russia’s pivot to the eastern route of the INSTC shows a shift in Eurasian logistics and geopolitical balancing between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan ridl.io/russia-s-piv...

"The war has profoundly damaged the Russian economy, even if not in the dramatic manner many Western officials initially hoped" @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/quality-not-...

"Any consequential transformation in Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine would have implications for the Kremlin’s #Africa policy. An outcome perceived as a Russian victory would further enhance the Kremlin’s position on the continent" @ivanklyszcz.com ridl.io/russia-afric...

This from @abarbashin.bsky.social is a further sign of Russia's "Greater Silk Road" approach and the relevance of its Southern Strategy. "Neighbors of Strategic Importance": ridl.io/neighbors-of...

Never before since the collapse of the Soviet Union has Russia's economic relationship with the post-Soviet space been so strong. And the reason for that is the war in Uraine. Thread 1/7k

Never before since the collapse of the Soviet Union has Russia's economic relationship with the post-Soviet space been so strong. And the reason for that is the war in Uraine. Thread 1/7k

20% of Russians would welcome troop withdrawal from Ukraine, prioritize social spending over military, and do not express clear support for the «special military operation» (i.e. say they do not support it, don’t know, or refuse to answer) ridl.io/not-a-bloc-b...

The Berlin peace plan proposals sound like a deal that Russia would take when Ukrainian army would be crossing into Crimea and approaching Kursk and Belgorod. Otherwise, it sounds like a deal designed to make Putin say "hell, no"

Rail underpins Russian core industries, crisis is self-reinforcing: key industries cannot export or move goods at higher volumes because rail capacity is insufficient, which in turn means the railroad earns even less revenue to expand or repair that capacity ridl.io/the-decline-...

20% of Russians would welcome troop withdrawal from Ukraine, prioritize social spending over military, and do not express clear support for the «special military operation» (i.e. say they do not support it, don’t know, or refuse to answer) ridl.io/not-a-bloc-b...

For Moscow, any article 5 like guarantees to Ukraine from NATO member states would not be much different from NATO membership unless Russia is also providing "article 5 like guarantees" to Ukraine with a veto power. Russia won't agree to Ukraine more secure than before the war

It is interesting to see the United States. Current administration treat Russia as a nation with the potential to greatly enrich US interests. When in fact, most of Russia’s economy is in a rapid state of decline ridl.io/the-decline-...

Once Russian Duma parties were off limits. Now Kremlin arrests their members like it is no big deal. Control dictates more control which always leads to repressions

Kremlin no longer bothers to conceal its desire to push LDPR into second place in the next parliamentary election and to marginalize the Communists. Targeted strikes against party’s most successful regional organizations are one element of that strategy. ridl.io/human-rights...

"Whenever Russian federal budget tightens, cash transfers to the population are prioritized at the expense of capital investment. Officials then inevitably find ways to squeeze more life out of aging infrastructure and utilities" @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/compounding-...

Really fun article to research and write.

Russia now faces a downward spiral of logistical struggle as its rail network—its primary means of transport—experiences a precipitous decline. Although Ukraine war briefly boosted rail usage for military cargo, the resulting economic bump was fleeting. @jhawn.bsky.social ridl.io/the-decline-...

"Whenever Russian federal budget tightens, cash transfers to the population are prioritized at the expense of capital investment. Officials then inevitably find ways to squeeze more life out of aging infrastructure and utilities" @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/compounding-...

Landscape of war opposition in Russia turns out to be far more complex than it first appears. It's not a single «antiwar bloc» but several clusters of people united by rejection of the war yet divided by how they respond to political reality ridl.io/not-a-bloc-b...

Landscape of war opposition in Russia turns out to be far more complex than it first appears. It's not a single «antiwar bloc» but several clusters of people united by rejection of the war yet divided by how they respond to political reality ridl.io/not-a-bloc-b...

Decades-long presence of Russia’s boomer cohort continuing to hold core leadership positions across the country’s authoritarian institutional ecosystem has impeded normal processes of skill-development and advancement opportunities for younger generations. ridl.io/russia-s-sec...

Despite the constant talk of the EU’s «sunset» and frailty, Russian officials and aligned experts nevertheless identify several factors that pose long-term risks for Moscow. ridl.io/europe-as-th...

Dat de VS de relatie met Europa op scherp hebben gezet lijkt goed nieuws voor Rusland. Toch is de houding van het Kremlin ten aanzien van de EU complexer dan op het eerste oog lijkt, schrijft @abarbashin.bsky.social, hoofdredacteur van onze partner Riddle Russia. platformraam.nl/uit-andere-m...

Putin’s chief FP advisor commenting on the peace process notes that we are still on the stage of discussing larger principles of the agreement rather than details of wording and legal formulations. Translation: there is no agreement on basic principles yet

Despite the constant talk of the EU’s «sunset» and frailty, Russian officials and aligned experts nevertheless identify several factors that pose long-term risks for Moscow. ridl.io/europe-as-th...

Decades-long presence of Russia’s boomer cohort continuing to hold core leadership positions across the country’s authoritarian institutional ecosystem has impeded normal processes of skill-development and advancement opportunities for younger generations. ridl.io/russia-s-sec...

A year after Assad regime collapsed, how does the Russia - Syria relationship look like? ridl.io/russia-in-th...

"Today’s atrocities are all because Russia’s military never outgrew the mindset of its Soviet forebears; it remains focused on lethality and victory at all costs. ridl.io/the-unreform...

Russia: EU is our chief enemy, the core reason why the the war in Ukraine is not ending on Russian terms; USA: EU is no longer our friend, de facto, chief irritant. Both criticise EU elites, cheer far-right MAGA/traditional values parties

Can the successor of Ramzan Kadyrov, presumably his son Adam be in a better position vis-a-vis Moscow or will Ramzan go down in history as the "unique case"? ridl.io/kadyrov-s-de...

How did EU become Russia's chief enemy? Why do the Russians both view it as "weak" and "dangerous"? How does Moscow view the future of EU and its relationship with Russia? After Alaska Putin - Trump Summit Moscow has proclaimed EU as the chief obstacle to peace in Ukraine 1/9

How did EU become Russia's chief enemy? Why do the Russians both view it as "weak" and "dangerous"? How does Moscow view the future of EU and its relationship with Russia? After Alaska Putin - Trump Summit Moscow has proclaimed EU as the chief obstacle to peace in Ukraine 1/9

The bottom line: Putin did not accept Trump’s peace plan.

“Kremlin appears to be ready for a pragmatic trade-off in #Syria: preserving a military presence in exchange for supporting the stability of the new Islamist regime” ridl.io/russia-in-th...

A Russian small business owner gets mobilized, comes home a war veterans, becomes head of municipality - gets loud about corruption and over centralization, nearly gets sent back to Ukraine and eventually is gets silenced. Only to become vocal again ridl.io/battle-for-t...