Anton Barbashin
@abarbashin.bsky.social
📤 4515
📥 310
📝 1350
Russia foreign and domestic politics. Editorial Director at ridl.io
The appearance of the children of Russia’s elite at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum has long been portrayed as evidence of a looming “generational change” and their ascent to real power. That theory has not held up.
ridl.io/diluted-turb...
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Diluted Turbo-Optimism – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (1−5 June)
https://ridl.io/diluted-turbo-optimism/
about 12 hours ago
0
7
0
#Kyrgyzstan
once a promising young democracy in Central Asia, has become Russia’s second-most loyal partner after Belarus. War in Ukraine has delivered major sanctions-evasion profits and Moscow’s patronage for its authoritarian turn at home
ridl.io/putin-s-outp...
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Putin’s Outpost in Central Asia – Riddle Russia
Roman Chernikov on how Kyrgyzstan became Moscow’s unconditional ally
https://ridl.io/putin-s-outpost-in-central-asia/
about 14 hours ago
1
19
8
Putin continues to deny the harsh realities of the Russian economy, while its economic managers remain unable to offer any meaningful solutions as long as the war drags on. Big business can only stand by helplessly. Check
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
new economic weekly
ridl.io/show-and-tel...
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Show and Tell (As Little as Possible) – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (June 1 — June 5)
https://ridl.io/show-and-tell-as-little-as-possible/
1 day ago
0
12
4
Today, Alexei Navalny would have turned 50. For
@platformraam.nl
, I wrote about his legacy — and the difficult task of keeping it alive for Russia’s opposition in exile amid endless internal conflict and a deepening sense of despair among his many followers
platformraam.nl/artikelen/30...
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Navalny’s voorbeeld wacht op navolging
https://platformraam.nl/artikelen/3057-navalnys-voorbeeld-wacht-op-navolging
3 days ago
1
10
1
For the first time ever, Brussels is directly punishing a third party - Kyrgyzstan with export bans after an 800%+ surge in re-exports of critical tech to Russia’s war machine. A new precedent in the sanctions regime?
ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sa...
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EU’s 20th Sanctions Package: Third Countries in the Crosshairs? – Riddle Russia
Vakhtang Partsvania on the EU’s latest bid to tighten the screws on sanctions-evasion infrastructure — and how far this new strategy can realistically go
https://ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sanctions-package-third-countries-in-the-crosshairs/
3 days ago
6
137
30
Can Ukraine sustain the war against Russia? EU loans are keeping Kyiv’s economy alive amid 18% GDP deficits, 122% debt, and brutal attrition in Donetsk. Russia grinds forward at horrific cost — but Ukraine’s long-term survival now depends on Europe
@erwoods.bsky.social
ridl.io/sustaining-t...
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Sustaining the War with Russia – Riddle Russia
Eric Woods on Ukraine’s EU Lifeline and the Long-Term Limits of Attritional Warfare
https://ridl.io/sustaining-the-war-with-russia/#Ukraine
3 days ago
1
6
1
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
"Economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is distinguished by a degree of flexibility almost unimaginable in Russia’s dealings with any other country. This goes beyond sanctions evasion" How so? Read Riddle Russia analysis
ridl.io/the-pivot-to...
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The Pivot to the East Has Succeeded. But There Are Nuances – Riddle Russia
Vladislav Inozemtsev on how partnership with China has turned Russia into its technological vassal
https://ridl.io/the-pivot-to-the-east-has-succeeded-but-there-are-nuances/
10 days ago
0
6
2
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
The downturn in metallurgy has gotten so bad that only four regions(out of 89, 6 of which are in occupied Ukraine but part of Russian statistics) are currently on track to be net donors to the federal budget Russia
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/weakness-is-...
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Weakness Is Strength – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (May 25 — 29)
https://ridl.io/weakness-is-strength/
9 days ago
0
13
4
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
For a long time, the Kremlin has wanted to push KPRF out of second place in Russian parliament. Now, however, it is trying to calm them down to avoid the risk of Communists actually doing real politics and voicing genuine concerns of ordinary Russians.
ridl.io/electoral-ma...
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Electoral Manifesto – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (25−29 May)
https://ridl.io/electoral-manifesto/
8 days ago
0
11
2
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
FSB has no need for
#Stalin
monuments to return to major cities, nor his full rehabilitation. Their guy is Felix Dzerzhinsky — and he’s back as much as one could ever be. In short: he was a de-facto terrorist with a talent for institutionalized terror.
ridl.io/the-iron-man...
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The Iron Man Returns – Riddle Russia
Alexey Uvarov on the resurgence of Felix Dzerzhinsky in Russian public discourse
https://ridl.io/the-iron-man-returns/
7 days ago
0
16
2
FSB has no need for
#Stalin
monuments to return to major cities, nor his full rehabilitation. Their guy is Felix Dzerzhinsky — and he’s back as much as one could ever be. In short: he was a de-facto terrorist with a talent for institutionalized terror.
ridl.io/the-iron-man...
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The Iron Man Returns – Riddle Russia
Alexey Uvarov on the resurgence of Felix Dzerzhinsky in Russian public discourse
https://ridl.io/the-iron-man-returns/
7 days ago
0
16
2
For a long time, the Kremlin has wanted to push KPRF out of second place in Russian parliament. Now, however, it is trying to calm them down to avoid the risk of Communists actually doing real politics and voicing genuine concerns of ordinary Russians.
ridl.io/electoral-ma...
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Electoral Manifesto – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (25−29 May)
https://ridl.io/electoral-manifesto/
8 days ago
0
11
2
Inozemtsev breaks down why Putin’s recent visit to
#China
failed to deliver any meaningful economic results — even amid the Iran crisis. And he explains how Russia has become a technological “vassal” of China In Russian, but auto-translate works great on subtitles
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftJI...
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Поворот на Восток удался: Россия — технологический вассал Китая - Russia TalkS02E25(В.Иноземцев)
YouTube video by Russia Talk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftJIeiaPMlY&t=0s
9 days ago
1
7
2
The downturn in metallurgy has gotten so bad that only four regions(out of 89, 6 of which are in occupied Ukraine but part of Russian statistics) are currently on track to be net donors to the federal budget Russia
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/weakness-is-...
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Weakness Is Strength – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (May 25 — 29)
https://ridl.io/weakness-is-strength/
9 days ago
0
13
4
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
Andrej Matisak
10 days ago
The pivot to the East has succeeded. But there are nuances. Vladislav Inozemtsev on how partnership with
#China
has turned
#Russia
into its technological vassal
ridl.io/the-pivot-to...
#Putinswar
#Ukraine
#politics
#economy
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The Pivot to the East Has Succeeded. But There Are Nuances – Riddle Russia
Vladislav Inozemtsev on how partnership with China has turned Russia into its technological vassal
https://ridl.io/the-pivot-to-the-east-has-succeeded-but-there-are-nuances/
1
7
4
"Economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is distinguished by a degree of flexibility almost unimaginable in Russia’s dealings with any other country. This goes beyond sanctions evasion" How so? Read Riddle Russia analysis
ridl.io/the-pivot-to...
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The Pivot to the East Has Succeeded. But There Are Nuances – Riddle Russia
Vladislav Inozemtsev on how partnership with China has turned Russia into its technological vassal
https://ridl.io/the-pivot-to-the-east-has-succeeded-but-there-are-nuances/
10 days ago
0
6
2
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
Highlights of
ridl.io
publications from last week.
@erwoods.bsky.social
on Ukraine's capacity to keep fighting Russia; Ksenia Smolyakova on Russia's second tier parties and what their function is; Key political news of the week analysis by Pertsev and economic by
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
1/5
12 days ago
1
6
1
Highlights of
ridl.io
publications from last week.
@erwoods.bsky.social
on Ukraine's capacity to keep fighting Russia; Ksenia Smolyakova on Russia's second tier parties and what their function is; Key political news of the week analysis by Pertsev and economic by
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
1/5
12 days ago
1
6
1
Putin’s trip to China was below Moscow’s expectations
ridl.io/with-friends...
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With friends like these… – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (May 18 — 22)
https://ridl.io/with-friends-like-these/
13 days ago
0
7
1
Tempting though it has been to portray Russia as a winner from Iran conflict, Beijing visit suggests something far more damning: prospect of the worst energy crisis in more than half a century is not enough to materially change Beijing’s approach.
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/with-friends...
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With friends like these… – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (May 18 — 22)
https://ridl.io/with-friends-like-these/
16 days ago
0
7
5
To the day the biggest anti-China party in Russia is the "Greater Rostec clan" with Sergei Chemezov and his "princes" like deputy PM Manturov who openly attacks Chinese auto industry while Putin is visiting China
ridl.io/big-rostec-v...
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Big «Rostec» vs. China – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (18−22 May)
https://ridl.io/big-rostec-vs-china/
16 days ago
0
4
1
In this Riddle Russia piece,
@erwoods.bsky.social
takes stock of Ukraine’s capacity to keep fighting Russia — and evaluates Russia’s ability to meaningfully change the dynamic on the ground
ridl.io/sustaining-t...
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Sustaining the War with Russia – Riddle Russia
Eric Woods on Ukraine’s EU Lifeline and the Long-Term Limits of Attritional Warfare
https://ridl.io/sustaining-the-war-with-russia/
16 days ago
0
7
1
Kyrgyzstan is now shutting dozens of companies that traded with Russia? Why? EU's 20th sanctions package. Read this Riddle Russia piece that explains the logic an procedure
ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sa...
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EU’s 20th Sanctions Package: Third Countries in the Crosshairs? – Riddle Russia
Vakhtang Partsvania on the EU’s latest bid to tighten the screws on sanctions-evasion infrastructure — and how far this new strategy can realistically go
https://ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sanctions-package-third-countries-in-the-crosshairs/
17 days ago
0
17
10
Concluding our 4-part
ridl.io
series “How Russian Political Parties Are Preparing for the State Duma Elections.” Not about elections or power struggles. It explores Kremlin’s perception of Russian society, simulated pluralism among allowed parties, and how it manages risks.
ridl.io/how-parties-...
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How Parties Are Preparing for the State Duma Elections: Second-Tier Parties – Riddle Russia
Ksenia Smolyakova examines the condition of Russia’s smaller parties as they head into the 2026 State Duma campaign
https://ridl.io/how-parties-are-preparing-for-the-state-duma-elections-second-tier-parties/
17 days ago
0
5
0
Russian regime has so thoroughly subordinated state capacity to survival and the war in Ukraine that key components of that capacity are now at risk. Why? Read this
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
economic weekly
ridl.io/managing-up/
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Managing Up – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (May 11 — 15)
https://ridl.io/managing-up/
22 days ago
0
6
1
Betting on the phantom peaceful intentions of the Russian president risks prompting misguided decisions and missteps—the very outcome the Kremlin is counting on, hoping to exploit other players’ mistakes.
ridl.io/reading-the-...
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Reading the Tea Leaves on Putin – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week of 11−15 May
https://ridl.io/reading-the-tea-leaves-on-putin/
23 days ago
0
7
1
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
For the first time third country has been hit with EU sectoral restrictions for allowing its territory to become a supply channel for Russia’s war economy. The big Q now is whether this move — aimed at a close partner of Russia within EAEU — will become a permanent feature
ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sa...
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EU’s 20th Sanctions Package: Third Countries in the Crosshairs? – Riddle Russia
Vakhtang Partsvania on the EU’s latest bid to tighten the screws on sanctions-evasion infrastructure — and how far this new strategy can realistically go
https://ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sanctions-package-third-countries-in-the-crosshairs/
26 days ago
1
10
3
"The return of Felix Dzerzhinsky statues should be seen less as an act of re-communization and more as part of the security services’ strategy to consolidate their power and eliminate any possibility of a repeat of the events of August 1991"
@aivengo96.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-iron-man...
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The Iron Man Returns – Riddle Russia
Alexey Uvarov on the resurgence of Felix Dzerzhinsky in Russian public discourse
https://ridl.io/the-iron-man-returns/
24 days ago
0
10
4
Khodorkovsky: Putin is ready to end the war, he realised the risks Kasparov: Russian elites are read to replace Putin This genre is called “I wish it was true but there are no tangible indicators of either”
24 days ago
2
16
1
For the first time third country has been hit with EU sectoral restrictions for allowing its territory to become a supply channel for Russia’s war economy. The big Q now is whether this move — aimed at a close partner of Russia within EAEU — will become a permanent feature
ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sa...
loading . . .
EU’s 20th Sanctions Package: Third Countries in the Crosshairs? – Riddle Russia
Vakhtang Partsvania on the EU’s latest bid to tighten the screws on sanctions-evasion infrastructure — and how far this new strategy can realistically go
https://ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sanctions-package-third-countries-in-the-crosshairs/
26 days ago
1
10
3
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
Tracking party ratings is not particularly useful for predicting future composition of State Duma. Nevertheless trends in public sentiment and authorities’ reactions to them reveal a great deal about how Kremlin perceives current state of Russian society and what it fears
ridl.io/how-russia-s...
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How Russia’s Parliamentary Parties Are Preparing for the 2026 State Duma Elections: New People, LDPR, and A Just Russia – Riddle Russia
Ksenia Smolyakova examines the current standing of three parliamentary parties as they head into the 2026 State Duma campaign
https://ridl.io/how-russia-s-parliamentary-parties-are-preparing-for-the-2026-state-duma-elections-new-people-ldpr-and-a-just-russia/
about 1 month ago
0
9
4
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
Coverage of Russian budget’s improvement due to Iran war makes no mention of any new spending that might support the economy. The regime is all in on lower interest rates at this point. That is a bet in keeping with one of core governing mantras of late Putinism: expect less.
ridl.io/expecting-le...
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Expecting less – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (May 3 — 8)
https://ridl.io/expecting-less/
29 days ago
0
10
1
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
Russian political managers and government still hope that, on the eve of Duma elections, some restrictions can be eased in order to improve authorities’ ratings. So far neither Putin nor security bloc has shown any willingness to revisit their decisions
ridl.io/a-harsh-warn...
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A Harsh Warning from United Russia – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (4−8 May)
https://ridl.io/a-harsh-warning-from-united-russia/
29 days ago
0
8
1
Russian political managers and government still hope that, on the eve of Duma elections, some restrictions can be eased in order to improve authorities’ ratings. So far neither Putin nor security bloc has shown any willingness to revisit their decisions
ridl.io/a-harsh-warn...
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A Harsh Warning from United Russia – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (4−8 May)
https://ridl.io/a-harsh-warning-from-united-russia/
29 days ago
0
8
1
Coverage of Russian budget’s improvement due to Iran war makes no mention of any new spending that might support the economy. The regime is all in on lower interest rates at this point. That is a bet in keeping with one of core governing mantras of late Putinism: expect less.
ridl.io/expecting-le...
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Expecting less – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (May 3 — 8)
https://ridl.io/expecting-less/
29 days ago
0
10
1
Tracking party ratings is not particularly useful for predicting future composition of State Duma. Nevertheless trends in public sentiment and authorities’ reactions to them reveal a great deal about how Kremlin perceives current state of Russian society and what it fears
ridl.io/how-russia-s...
loading . . .
How Russia’s Parliamentary Parties Are Preparing for the 2026 State Duma Elections: New People, LDPR, and A Just Russia – Riddle Russia
Ksenia Smolyakova examines the current standing of three parliamentary parties as they head into the 2026 State Duma campaign
https://ridl.io/how-russia-s-parliamentary-parties-are-preparing-for-the-2026-state-duma-elections-new-people-ldpr-and-a-just-russia/
about 1 month ago
0
9
4
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
The worst that could happen to Russia is not simply being stuck on a treadmill of stagflation. It is facing a consistent, downward economic correction in which investment in public goods and productive capacity falls faster than household incomes
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/what-s-the-w...
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What’s the Worst That Could Happen? – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (April 27 — May 3)
https://ridl.io/what-s-the-worst-that-could-happen/
about 1 month ago
0
24
6
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
PA's political bloc led by Kiriyenko and concerned about falling ratings ahead of Duma elections is attempting to soften negative atmosphere and deflect dissatisfaction away from the President. Yet Putin continues to regard blockades and censorship as fully justified measures
ridl.io/bans-in-a-va...
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Bans in a Vacuum – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (April 27 — May 3)
https://ridl.io/bans-in-a-vacuum/
about 1 month ago
0
8
2
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
While there are grounds for optimism regarding public finances caution is warranted when extending this optimism to Russian economy as a whole. Russia is entering a period in which state of federal budget will no longer be dominant factor shaping economic development
ridl.io/the-dry-spon...
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The ‘Dry Sponge’ of the Russian Economy – Riddle Russia
Vladislav Inozemtsev on whether Russia can meaningfully revitalize its economy using windfall oil and gas revenue
https://ridl.io/the-dry-sponge-of-the-russian-economy/
about 1 month ago
0
8
1
While there are grounds for optimism regarding public finances caution is warranted when extending this optimism to Russian economy as a whole. Russia is entering a period in which state of federal budget will no longer be dominant factor shaping economic development
ridl.io/the-dry-spon...
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The ‘Dry Sponge’ of the Russian Economy – Riddle Russia
Vladislav Inozemtsev on whether Russia can meaningfully revitalize its economy using windfall oil and gas revenue
https://ridl.io/the-dry-sponge-of-the-russian-economy/
about 1 month ago
0
8
1
PA's political bloc led by Kiriyenko and concerned about falling ratings ahead of Duma elections is attempting to soften negative atmosphere and deflect dissatisfaction away from the President. Yet Putin continues to regard blockades and censorship as fully justified measures
ridl.io/bans-in-a-va...
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Bans in a Vacuum – Riddle Russia
Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (April 27 — May 3)
https://ridl.io/bans-in-a-vacuum/
about 1 month ago
0
8
2
Russian
#regional
#deficit
increase 5-fold in the last year. Is this a new norm? Is Kremlin prepared to keep sacrificing the regions for sake of military priorities, and what political risks does this carry? Russia Talk (EN subs available)
@minczifra.bsky.social
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsKH...
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Региональный дефицит как новая норма? - Russia Talk S02E23(Андраш Тот-Цифра)
YouTube video by Russia Talk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsKHqgFx2uE
about 1 month ago
0
7
1
The worst that could happen to Russia is not simply being stuck on a treadmill of stagflation. It is facing a consistent, downward economic correction in which investment in public goods and productive capacity falls faster than household incomes
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/what-s-the-w...
loading . . .
What’s the Worst That Could Happen? – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (April 27 — May 3)
https://ridl.io/what-s-the-worst-that-could-happen/
about 1 month ago
0
24
6
There is an argument that civilian officials in Russia are "clashing with FSB" over extent to which internet use should be restricted. This piece argues that real — and only — issue has been technical capacity of Russian companies and agencies responsible for implementation
ridl.io/russia-s-dig...
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Russia’s Digital Crackdown – Riddle Russia
Oleg Loginov on the Kremlin’s push for full control over Russia’s internet
https://ridl.io/russia-s-digital-crackdown/
about 1 month ago
0
11
1
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
73 regions in Russia’s regional fiscal system (which includes 83 regions plus the six occupied territories in Ukraine) closed 2025 with a fiscal deficit. The deficit is 5 times what it was in 2024. What comes next?
@minczifra.bsky.social
for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/no-place-to-...
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No place to hide a deficit – Riddle Russia
Andras Toth-Czifra: the growing pain points in Russia’s regional budgets
https://ridl.io/no-place-to-hide-a-deficit/
about 1 month ago
1
18
7
73 regions in Russia’s regional fiscal system (which includes 83 regions plus the six occupied territories in Ukraine) closed 2025 with a fiscal deficit. The deficit is 5 times what it was in 2024. What comes next?
@minczifra.bsky.social
for Riddle Russia
ridl.io/no-place-to-...
loading . . .
No place to hide a deficit – Riddle Russia
Andras Toth-Czifra: the growing pain points in Russia’s regional budgets
https://ridl.io/no-place-to-hide-a-deficit/
about 1 month ago
1
18
7
For Russia Talk
@aivengo96.bsky.social
speaks about Russian political opposition in exile: success rate of their projects, support West is willing to provide and arrives at a blunt conclusion — Western leaders were never serious about backing regime change in Russia
www.youtube.com/watch?v=S20q...
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Спустя 4 года: Чья Это Война? - Russia Talk S02E22(Алексей Уваров)
YouTube video by Russia Talk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S20qN7SynR0
about 1 month ago
1
6
1
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
It should be taken seriously when someone in the Duma invokes the specter of 1917 and revolution in wartime. The calls are coming from inside the house that the economy is hurtling into darkness. It appears they finally have the Kremlin’s attention
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/calls-from-i...
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Calls from Inside the House – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (April 20−24)
https://ridl.io/calls-from-inside-the-house/
about 1 month ago
1
13
2
It should be taken seriously when someone in the Duma invokes the specter of 1917 and revolution in wartime. The calls are coming from inside the house that the economy is hurtling into darkness. It appears they finally have the Kremlin’s attention
@ruboyinthehood.bsky.social
ridl.io/calls-from-i...
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Calls from Inside the House – Riddle Russia
Nicholas Trickett’s economic summary of the week (April 20−24)
https://ridl.io/calls-from-inside-the-house/
about 1 month ago
1
13
2
reposted by
Anton Barbashin
4 years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, a substantial body of evidence has accumulated showing that external observers often have limited and distorted understanding of repressive reality in today’s Russia. Yet a clear grasp of true scale of these repressions is essential
ridl.io/from-discred...
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From «Discrediting» the Military to High Treason and Terrorism – Riddle Russia
Sergei Davidis on the evolution of political repression in Russia since the start of the war
https://ridl.io/from-discrediting-the-military-to-high-treason-and-terrorism/
about 2 months ago
0
10
6
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