The EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social https://bit.ly/47qeUbV

🇷🇺 tourists spend a lot of money in EU. Instead of giving them a finger - add an “X euro” to a visa fees that would go to a EU fund destined for rebuilding 🇺🇦. A. You don’t shut the door on people for what 🇷🇺 government does and they can’t stop; B. You get extra money for 🇺🇦

Two Riddle Russia authors became foreign agents today. I strongly recommend to subscribe and read their analysis: @aivengo96.bsky.social ridl.io/auth/alexey-... Margarita Zavadskaya ridl.io/auth/margari...

Kremlin idealogues keep producing papers that aim to convince Russian senior leadership that Russians are ready to take any burden and lose their lives for the Russian State and it survival provided more indoctrination is done. Then anything goes ridl.io/heavy-stroke...

"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core" ridl.io/russia-s-sec...

If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading. ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...

While Trump lingers indecisively and Moscow bets on Europe falling apart, the only logical strategy for the EU is to double down on its support for Kyiv, writes @abarbashin.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social https://bit.ly/47qeUbV

"Russia’s narrow upper-elite of Gen-Xers will inherit the regime in due course, but they will be competing with suddenly promoted nouveau aristocrats connected by familial ties to the current leadership core" ridl.io/russia-s-sec...

"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan" @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/the-...

"Given limited US support for its Ukraine policy, the EU’s most pragmatic strategy is to brace for a conflict that could last an additional 2–4 years and formulate a five-year plan" @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/the-...

If Trump does in fact restart nuclear tests, Russia will have to follow while China will benefit the most. And that would d eventually cascade into many others detonating and upgrading. ridl.io/us-nuclear-t...

Kremlin strategists under Sergei Kiriyenko had eyed ousting the heads of annexed territories of Ukraine, taking out "local leaders" and supplementing them with fully loyal technocrats ridl.io/the-return-o...

Russia regional budgets for this year and 2026 show how the war is making it very hard fore regions to keep the income at the levels of 2022-2023, let alone pre-war levels @minczifra.bsky.social ridl.io/state-of-unr...

Russia is increasingly tapping into Middle East mercenary market for the war in Ukraine offering generous pay and Russian passports. If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$ ridl.io/the-middle-e...

Shoigu's mild "falling out of grace" is now fully over. Former minister of defense now has the full support of President Putin ridl.io/the-return-o...

russia is increasingly tapping into Middle East mercenary market for the war in Ukraine offering generous pay and russian passports. By loss data the 2025 tempo has risen threefold compared to 23-24 ridl.io/the-middle-e...

Shoigu's mild "falling out of grace" is now fully over. Former minister of defense now has the full support of President Putin ridl.io/the-return-o...

Russia is increasingly tapping into Middle East mercenary market for the war in Ukraine offering generous pay and Russian passports. If the war in Ukraine prolongs (and it will), Russia would need extra men ready to kill for $$$ ridl.io/the-middle-e...

Kremlin appoints a new guy to run a department on strategic partnerships that was created instead of two departments previously run by Dmitry Kozak. Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him ridl.io/in-his-own-i...

Kremlin appoints a new guy to run a department on strategic partnerships that was created instead of two departments previously run by Dmitry Kozak. Who is the new man - Vadim Titov and why Kiriyenko has appointed him ridl.io/in-his-own-i...

My newest for Riddle on the squeeze on regional budgets and why this will become a problem. ridl.io/state-of-unr...

19th EU sanctions package cements a fresh energy paradigm, wherein Russia forfeits its perch as Europe’s go-to LNG supplier, and the EU redoubles its energy fortress. ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...

19th EU sanctions package cements a fresh energy paradigm, wherein Russia forfeits its perch as Europe’s go-to LNG supplier, and the EU redoubles its energy fortress. ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...

Russia regional budgets for this year and 2026 show how the war is making it very hard fore regions to keep the income at the levels of 2022-2023, let alone pre-war levels @minczifra.bsky.social ridl.io/state-of-unr...

Russian oil would still find way to global markets - not as Rosneft but as, say NeftRos but increased risk would demand greater price discounts and eventually make the war more expensive @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/timing-is-ev...

Here is a great explainer on how EU's 19th sanctions package will affect Russia Spoiler: this one will be felt hard ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...

For the first time since 2022 we see Russian authorities in need of convincing Russians that paying more taxes is in their interest. “War bills” are multiplying and being a political risk down the road

Here is a great explainer on how EU's 19th sanctions package will affect Russia Spoiler: this one will be felt hard ridl.io/lng-in-the-c...

Watch the hands: Kremlin-affliated pollster publishes a poll saying that 69% of Russians are "prepared to cut back on spending and consumption to safeguard the country" Kremlin talking heads to Russians: look 2/3 are in - be like them and tolerate ridl.io/the-untoucha...

Russian oil would still find way to global markets - not as Rosneft but as, say NeftRos but increased risk would demand greater price discounts and eventually make the war more expensive @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/timing-is-ev...

Ventures like the «New Belarus Passport» or a hypothetical «Nansen passport for Russians» linger as potent symbols, devoid of legal heft. Exiles tools of action are quire limited ridl.io/opposition-w...

Ventures like the «New Belarus Passport» or a hypothetical «Nansen passport for Russians» linger as potent symbols, devoid of legal heft. Exiles tools of action are quire limited ridl.io/opposition-w...

After Al-Sharaa's visit to Moscow: What is the Russia - Syria relationship now? ridl.io/moscow-and-d...

Recent study indicates that 73.5% of Russians want peace in Ukraine. However, the terms include retaining full control of occupied territories. The only surprise in the poll is that Russians don't care all that much about NATO status. It's not a dealbreaker ridl.io/russians-wan...

It is clear that Rubio and Lavrov did not agree on what should Budapest Summit be about yet Russian propaganda blames Europe, leaving room for Trump to “change his mind”. It’s “Europe’s fault” - Russia new mantra

After Al-Sharaa's visit to Moscow: What is the Russia - Syria relationship now? ridl.io/moscow-and-d...

As the gasoline crisis intensifies and tax hikes materialize, a new Russian problem with no practical answer has emerged since summer. How can officials keep companies investing, the primary driver of whatever ‘gains’ Russians have enjoyed since the invasion? ridl.io/hot-potato-o...

After Trump’s UN speech and “paper tiger” comments about Russia, it seems that Trump is taking Ukraine’s side with minimal support. Now we’re back at (reportedly) Trump pushing Russian peace terms on Kyiv. Trump can and will likely flip again.

First time Russians protest new taxes (part of the "war bill". Vladivostok residents forced the government to postpone the introduction of new recycling fees for imported cars. This is a huge deal for Russia's Far East ridl.io/taxes-beckon...

First time Russians protest new taxes (part of the "war bill". Vladivostok residents forced the government to postpone the introduction of new recycling fees for imported cars. This is a huge deal for Russia's Far East ridl.io/taxes-beckon...

Recent study indicates that 73.5% of Russians want peace in Ukraine. However, the terms include retaining full control of occupied territories. The only surprise in the poll is that Russians don't care all that much about NATO status. It's not a dealbreaker ridl.io/russians-wan...

EU has not yet exhausted all creative options of what could be done with Russian frozen asserts to help Ukraine @aivengo96.bsky.social here discusses what and how could be done ridl.io/frozen-russi...

As the #AfD seeks a «respectable conservative» makeover to woo CDU right-wingers and their voters, its leadership might heed Russia-skeptic exiles—Meuthen and Cotar. The «Russia vector» could be the «sacrifice» or «mainstream concession» it can afford.

As the #AfD seeks a «respectable conservative» makeover to woo CDU right-wingers and their voters, its leadership might heed Russia-skeptic exiles—Meuthen and Cotar. The «Russia vector» could be the «sacrifice» or «mainstream concession» it can afford.

Germany's "hard right" AfD needs a healthy doze of distancing from Russia if they want to seize being a "permanent opposition" Do we the see signs of it emerging? ridl.io/afd-s-pro-ru...

Germany's "hard right" AfD needs a healthy doze of distancing from Russia if they want to seize being a "permanent opposition" Do we the see signs of it emerging? ridl.io/afd-s-pro-ru...

"Maintaining current sluggish sanctions course could lead to preservation of Kremlin’s confidence in controlling the situation both domestically and in foreign policy, as well as to a gradual US withdrawal from the anti-Russian coalition" ridl.io/sanctions-de...

The increase of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries makes Russia export more crude oil that India then refines and exports to the European Union: In September EU imported record amount of diesel from India

Since August, Russia lost about 25% of oil refinery capacities.

Technically speaking, there is a way for EU to make use of frozen Russian assets without confiscating them - it demands coordination and intra-EU unity. Will they go for it? ridl.io/frozen-russi...