The appearance of the children of Russia’s elite at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum has long been portrayed as evidence of a looming “generational change” and their ascent to real power. That theory has not held up. ridl.io/diluted-turb...

#Kyrgyzstan once a promising young democracy in Central Asia, has become Russia’s second-most loyal partner after Belarus. War in Ukraine has delivered major sanctions-evasion profits and Moscow’s patronage for its authoritarian turn at home ridl.io/putin-s-outp...

Putin continues to deny the harsh realities of the Russian economy, while its economic managers remain unable to offer any meaningful solutions as long as the war drags on. Big business can only stand by helplessly. Check @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social new economic weekly ridl.io/show-and-tel...

Today, Alexei Navalny would have turned 50. For @platformraam.nl, I wrote about his legacy — and the difficult task of keeping it alive for Russia’s opposition in exile amid endless internal conflict and a deepening sense of despair among his many followers platformraam.nl/artikelen/30...

For the first time ever, Brussels is directly punishing a third party - Kyrgyzstan with export bans after an 800%+ surge in re-exports of critical tech to Russia’s war machine. A new precedent in the sanctions regime? ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sa...

Can Ukraine sustain the war against Russia? EU loans are keeping Kyiv’s economy alive amid 18% GDP deficits, 122% debt, and brutal attrition in Donetsk. Russia grinds forward at horrific cost — but Ukraine’s long-term survival now depends on Europe @erwoods.bsky.social ridl.io/sustaining-t...

"Economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is distinguished by a degree of flexibility almost unimaginable in Russia’s dealings with any other country. This goes beyond sanctions evasion" How so? Read Riddle Russia analysis ridl.io/the-pivot-to...

The downturn in metallurgy has gotten so bad that only four regions(out of 89, 6 of which are in occupied Ukraine but part of Russian statistics) are currently on track to be net donors to the federal budget Russia @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/weakness-is-...

For a long time, the Kremlin has wanted to push KPRF out of second place in Russian parliament. Now, however, it is trying to calm them down to avoid the risk of Communists actually doing real politics and voicing genuine concerns of ordinary Russians. ridl.io/electoral-ma...

FSB has no need for #Stalin monuments to return to major cities, nor his full rehabilitation. Their guy is Felix Dzerzhinsky — and he’s back as much as one could ever be. In short: he was a de-facto terrorist with a talent for institutionalized terror. ridl.io/the-iron-man...

FSB has no need for #Stalin monuments to return to major cities, nor his full rehabilitation. Their guy is Felix Dzerzhinsky — and he’s back as much as one could ever be. In short: he was a de-facto terrorist with a talent for institutionalized terror. ridl.io/the-iron-man...

For a long time, the Kremlin has wanted to push KPRF out of second place in Russian parliament. Now, however, it is trying to calm them down to avoid the risk of Communists actually doing real politics and voicing genuine concerns of ordinary Russians. ridl.io/electoral-ma...

Inozemtsev breaks down why Putin’s recent visit to #China failed to deliver any meaningful economic results — even amid the Iran crisis. And he explains how Russia has become a technological “vassal” of China In Russian, but auto-translate works great on subtitles www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftJI...

The downturn in metallurgy has gotten so bad that only four regions(out of 89, 6 of which are in occupied Ukraine but part of Russian statistics) are currently on track to be net donors to the federal budget Russia @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/weakness-is-...

The pivot to the East has succeeded. But there are nuances. Vladislav Inozemtsev on how partnership with #China has turned #Russia into its technological vassal ridl.io/the-pivot-to... #Putinswar #Ukraine #politics #economy

"Economic cooperation between Moscow and Beijing is distinguished by a degree of flexibility almost unimaginable in Russia’s dealings with any other country. This goes beyond sanctions evasion" How so? Read Riddle Russia analysis ridl.io/the-pivot-to...

Highlights of ridl.io publications from last week. @erwoods.bsky.social on Ukraine's capacity to keep fighting Russia; Ksenia Smolyakova on Russia's second tier parties and what their function is; Key political news of the week analysis by Pertsev and economic by @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social 1/5

Highlights of ridl.io publications from last week. @erwoods.bsky.social on Ukraine's capacity to keep fighting Russia; Ksenia Smolyakova on Russia's second tier parties and what their function is; Key political news of the week analysis by Pertsev and economic by @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social 1/5

Putin’s trip to China was below Moscow’s expectations ridl.io/with-friends...

Tempting though it has been to portray Russia as a winner from Iran conflict, Beijing visit suggests something far more damning: prospect of the worst energy crisis in more than half a century is not enough to materially change Beijing’s approach. @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/with-friends...

To the day the biggest anti-China party in Russia is the "Greater Rostec clan" with Sergei Chemezov and his "princes" like deputy PM Manturov who openly attacks Chinese auto industry while Putin is visiting China ridl.io/big-rostec-v...

In this Riddle Russia piece, @erwoods.bsky.social takes stock of Ukraine’s capacity to keep fighting Russia — and evaluates Russia’s ability to meaningfully change the dynamic on the ground ridl.io/sustaining-t...

Kyrgyzstan is now shutting dozens of companies that traded with Russia? Why? EU's 20th sanctions package. Read this Riddle Russia piece that explains the logic an procedure ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sa...

Concluding our 4-part ridl.io series “How Russian Political Parties Are Preparing for the State Duma Elections.” Not about elections or power struggles. It explores Kremlin’s perception of Russian society, simulated pluralism among allowed parties, and how it manages risks. ridl.io/how-parties-...

Russian regime has so thoroughly subordinated state capacity to survival and the war in Ukraine that key components of that capacity are now at risk. Why? Read this @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social economic weekly ridl.io/managing-up/

Betting on the phantom peaceful intentions of the Russian president risks prompting misguided decisions and missteps—the very outcome the Kremlin is counting on, hoping to exploit other players’ mistakes. ridl.io/reading-the-...

For the first time third country has been hit with EU sectoral restrictions for allowing its territory to become a supply channel for Russia’s war economy. The big Q now is whether this move — aimed at a close partner of Russia within EAEU — will become a permanent feature ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sa...

"The return of Felix Dzerzhinsky statues should be seen less as an act of re-communization and more as part of the security services’ strategy to consolidate their power and eliminate any possibility of a repeat of the events of August 1991" @aivengo96.bsky.social ridl.io/the-iron-man...

Khodorkovsky: Putin is ready to end the war, he realised the risks Kasparov: Russian elites are read to replace Putin This genre is called “I wish it was true but there are no tangible indicators of either”

For the first time third country has been hit with EU sectoral restrictions for allowing its territory to become a supply channel for Russia’s war economy. The big Q now is whether this move — aimed at a close partner of Russia within EAEU — will become a permanent feature ridl.io/eu-s-20th-sa...

Tracking party ratings is not particularly useful for predicting future composition of State Duma. Nevertheless trends in public sentiment and authorities’ reactions to them reveal a great deal about how Kremlin perceives current state of Russian society and what it fears ridl.io/how-russia-s...

Coverage of Russian budget’s improvement due to Iran war makes no mention of any new spending that might support the economy. The regime is all in on lower interest rates at this point. That is a bet in keeping with one of core governing mantras of late Putinism: expect less. ridl.io/expecting-le...

Russian political managers and government still hope that, on the eve of Duma elections, some restrictions can be eased in order to improve authorities’ ratings. So far neither Putin nor security bloc has shown any willingness to revisit their decisions ridl.io/a-harsh-warn...

Russian political managers and government still hope that, on the eve of Duma elections, some restrictions can be eased in order to improve authorities’ ratings. So far neither Putin nor security bloc has shown any willingness to revisit their decisions ridl.io/a-harsh-warn...

Coverage of Russian budget’s improvement due to Iran war makes no mention of any new spending that might support the economy. The regime is all in on lower interest rates at this point. That is a bet in keeping with one of core governing mantras of late Putinism: expect less. ridl.io/expecting-le...

Tracking party ratings is not particularly useful for predicting future composition of State Duma. Nevertheless trends in public sentiment and authorities’ reactions to them reveal a great deal about how Kremlin perceives current state of Russian society and what it fears ridl.io/how-russia-s...

The worst that could happen to Russia is not simply being stuck on a treadmill of stagflation. It is facing a consistent, downward economic correction in which investment in public goods and productive capacity falls faster than household incomes @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/what-s-the-w...

PA's political bloc led by Kiriyenko and concerned about falling ratings ahead of Duma elections is attempting to soften negative atmosphere and deflect dissatisfaction away from the President. Yet Putin continues to regard blockades and censorship as fully justified measures ridl.io/bans-in-a-va...

While there are grounds for optimism regarding public finances caution is warranted when extending this optimism to Russian economy as a whole. Russia is entering a period in which state of federal budget will no longer be dominant factor shaping economic development ridl.io/the-dry-spon...

While there are grounds for optimism regarding public finances caution is warranted when extending this optimism to Russian economy as a whole. Russia is entering a period in which state of federal budget will no longer be dominant factor shaping economic development ridl.io/the-dry-spon...

PA's political bloc led by Kiriyenko and concerned about falling ratings ahead of Duma elections is attempting to soften negative atmosphere and deflect dissatisfaction away from the President. Yet Putin continues to regard blockades and censorship as fully justified measures ridl.io/bans-in-a-va...

Russian #regional #deficit increase 5-fold in the last year. Is this a new norm? Is Kremlin prepared to keep sacrificing the regions for sake of military priorities, and what political risks does this carry? Russia Talk (EN subs available) @minczifra.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsKH...

The worst that could happen to Russia is not simply being stuck on a treadmill of stagflation. It is facing a consistent, downward economic correction in which investment in public goods and productive capacity falls faster than household incomes @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/what-s-the-w...

There is an argument that civilian officials in Russia are "clashing with FSB" over extent to which internet use should be restricted. This piece argues that real — and only — issue has been technical capacity of Russian companies and agencies responsible for implementation ridl.io/russia-s-dig...

73 regions in Russia’s regional fiscal system (which includes 83 regions plus the six occupied territories in Ukraine) closed 2025 with a fiscal deficit. The deficit is 5 times what it was in 2024. What comes next? @minczifra.bsky.social for Riddle Russia ridl.io/no-place-to-...

73 regions in Russia’s regional fiscal system (which includes 83 regions plus the six occupied territories in Ukraine) closed 2025 with a fiscal deficit. The deficit is 5 times what it was in 2024. What comes next? @minczifra.bsky.social for Riddle Russia ridl.io/no-place-to-...

For Russia Talk @aivengo96.bsky.social speaks about Russian political opposition in exile: success rate of their projects, support West is willing to provide and arrives at a blunt conclusion — Western leaders were never serious about backing regime change in Russia www.youtube.com/watch?v=S20q...

It should be taken seriously when someone in the Duma invokes the specter of 1917 and revolution in wartime. The calls are coming from inside the house that the economy is hurtling into darkness. It appears they finally have the Kremlin’s attention @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/calls-from-i...

It should be taken seriously when someone in the Duma invokes the specter of 1917 and revolution in wartime. The calls are coming from inside the house that the economy is hurtling into darkness. It appears they finally have the Kremlin’s attention @ruboyinthehood.bsky.social ridl.io/calls-from-i...

4 years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, a substantial body of evidence has accumulated showing that external observers often have limited and distorted understanding of repressive reality in today’s Russia. Yet a clear grasp of true scale of these repressions is essential ridl.io/from-discred...