Under Biden, there was no thermostatic shift in public opinion about the size of government. The public stayed relatively liberal. Take attitudes toward the government's role in health care:

Imagine asking people two questions -- whether each of these is a good or bad way to run a govt: 1) having a democratic political system 2) having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections What percent says *both* are good? 44%!

Three new publications from Vanderbilt political science faculty! First up, Diana Lee and @yamilrvelez.bsky.social, "Measuring Descriptive Representation at Scale: Methods for Predicting the Race and Ethnicity of Public Officials." www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

thermostat go click-click-click

Just like in his 1st term, Trump is going to hover around 40% approval. As @johnsides.bsky.social et al point out in their 2020 election book, Trump always sides with his base rather than choose policies with broader appeal. When you only aim to satisfy 40% of the population, you get 40% approval.

Some more great new research from Vandy polisci faculty! Peter Schram in International Organization, "Conflicts that Leave Something to Chance." www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

The popularity of ICE is plunging. goodauthority.org/news/america...

I worked with E.J. for many years and highly recommend her for any academic looking to polish their writing and reach a larger audience!

For @goodauth.bsky.social, I updated the affective polarization trend using the newly released 2024 ANES. Here's the graph. A few important points...

And while I'm at it, a THIRD piece in the AJPS from Vanderbilt polisci faculty came out yesterday -- this one by my colleagues @BradSmithUNC and Peter Bils: "The Logic of Secret Alliances" onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Somehow I neglected to mention a SIXTH APSR by Vanderbilt polisci faculty. This one, by Jorge Mangonnet et al., is now out and formally forthcoming in 2026! "Family Ties, Social Control, and Authoritarian Distribution to Elites" www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

There’s so much interesting research coming from Vanderbilt political science faculty. As dept chair, it is a pleasure to highlight a bunch of it. First, up, @trounstine.bsky.social and Sarah Anzia in the @apsrjournal.bsky.social on civil service adoption: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Congress was hiding in plain sight 🤓. Join me & @johnsides.bsky.social for Episode 2 of @goodauth.bsky.social's Where's Congress? We consider the big (yes), beautiful (eye of beholder) bill House GOP are trying to pass thru House --Senate GOP views be damned (for now) www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvfR...

In the latest episode of "Where's Congress?" for @goodauth.bsky.social, @sarahbinder.bsky.social and I discuss the Big Beautiful Bill (TM). Learn what's different about this bill and the politics that are complicating is bigness and beauty. www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvfR...

Americans are more pro-choice than people think. Two studies show that both elected leaders and voters overestimate Americans' conservatism on abortion. New from me @goodauth.bsky.social. goodauthority.org/news/the-chr...

This, by @tesler.bsky.social, is looking more prescient everyday. goodauthority.org/news/why-dem...

Shifts to Trump from 2020-24 are not just a story about the youngest voters or about the youngest men. They are a story about shifts among *men and women* who are *under 40*. 1,000 takes on the youngest men. Virtually zero on everyone else.

What tools do Democrats have to do anything in Congress? The full episode with @johnsides.bsky.social and @sarahbinder.bsky.social is out now on our Substack: open.substack.com/pub/goodauth...

We're live with "Where's Congress?" 🤓🤓 Got topics or questions you'd like me and @johnsides.bsky.social to tackle in future @goodauth.bsky.social episodes? Send them along!

So @sarahbinder.bsky.social and I inaugurated a new regular feature for @goodauth.bsky.social: "Where's Congress?" We talk about why a once-strong Congress became a flabby weak mess. The highlights of this week's episode are... www.youtube.com/watch?v=Byct...

Trump is saying trade is bad, but increasingly Americans think trade is good. It happened in his first term. It's happening again. Meet your thermostatic public! goodauthority.org/news/trade-p...

Did naturalized citizens support Trump in 2024? Two major surveys say that they did not. AP Votecast: Harris 54% - Trump 43% CES (released today): Harris 54% - Trump 43% This is a hard group to survey and no estimate is canonical. But these estimates deserve attention too.

A new report on legislative effectiveness by my colleague Alan Wiseman and Craig Volden confirms, once again, that Eleanor Holmes Norton is the GOAT. Vandy story: news.vanderbilt.edu/2025/03/27/l... Report: thelawmakers.org/wp-content/upl

Yikes

Big deal—after correcting, it turns out that moderate candidates do not perform better than extreme candidates in general elections. Kudos to Andy, Dan, and Adam for updating a key question in political science

From @johnsides.bsky.social and @tesler.bsky.social and Colette Marcellin in NYT Opinion.

I have an op-ed in the WPost w/ Nick Stephanopoulos & Eric McGhee on the evaporation of the U.S. House's pro Republican bias in the 2020s. The reasons seem to be fewer Rep. gerrymanders, more Dem. gerrymanders, and a shift in the country's political geography. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/int...

There used to be a bipartisan consensus that rejected traditional gender roles. Not anymore. Republican men *and* women increasingly endorse traditional roles. Here's a 🧵 based on a new New York Times piece by @tesler.bsky.social, Colette Marcellin, and me.

i have a new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler on immigration attitudes. an increasing plurality of Americans support both a path to citizenship and increased border security but this group is also becoming increasingly polarized on party lines goodauthority.org/news/surpris...

I hate to pile on the Washington Post, but really things started going downhill when they let go of a prominent political science blog.

My latest, in @goodauth.bsky.social - the misinformation about South Africa’s new land bill, the Afrikaner refugees EO, and more! goodauthority.org/news/misinfo...

My conversation with @johnsides.bsky.social and Danny Hayes on @goodauth.bsky.social on what the evidence says on what really determined the 2024 elections goodauthority.org/news/so-what...

A great explainer on tariffs by @alexandraguisinger.bsky.social

Please answer this survey question: Would you rather sleep in laundered pajamas once worn by Charles Manson or put a nickel in your mouth that you found on the ground? Now, here's why answers to that sort of question can explain the weird politics of RFK Jr. goodauthority.org/news/rfk-jr-...

As a Proud Department Chair, I have to note that the new issue of the American Political Science Review has FOUR articles by Vanderbilt political science faculty! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...?

In the latest @goodauth.bsky.social podcast, I spoke with @jeanhong.bsky.social about South korea’s January 6th moment, the emergence of a Korean far right, and democratic resilience. goodauthority.org/news/whats-n...

What is IMPOUNDMENT? @rudalev.bsky.social wrote an explainer a few months ago:

Gaza was the #1 reason some Biden voters didn't support Harris? Alas, this is another viral poll results that you shouldn't put much faith in. goodauthority.org/news/the-pro...

Dream team (@hsulli.bsky.social & @edebruin.bsky.social) writeup of what we know about Bolsonaro's attempted plot to steal Brazil's 2022 election:

Larry Bartels has been awarded a National Medal of Science! www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo...

It's an LOL because people think that candidates win elections because the public wants them to do what they promised to do. And then elected officials do those things, and the public shifts in the opposite direction entirely! Check out Alexander's piece for the definitive explainer.

My old Jimmy Carter post: "What really happened in the 1980 presidential campaign." goodauthority.org/news/what-re...

What got the most attention from our readers this year? @johnsides.bsky.social breaks down Good Authority’s top 10 posts of 2024. goodauthority.org/news/good-au...

President-elect Trump has named a bunch of billionaires to join his administration. What do we know about billionaire politicians? Check out the latest from my brilliant @polisciatnu.bsky.social colleagues Dan Krcmaric & Steve Nelson on @goodauth.bsky.social 👇 goodauthority.org/news/billion...

After the election, people attributed Trump's victory to local conditions -- high cost of living, increases in immigration, poor city governance. In fact, local conditions didn't matter that much. At @goodauth.bsky.social, I run through the data and explain why. goodauthority.org/news/local-p...

Fascinating finding from @tesler.bsky.social and Crystal Robertson @goodauth.bsky.social : sexism may have cost Harris votes among black men BUT that appears to have been true for Biden as well. goodauthority.org/news/sexism-...

Opposition to Brexit is increasing, and about a third of that increase is just anti-Brexit young voters joining the electorate. ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

In this post, I explain the main challenges Uruguay faces in the next 5 years 👇🏼

For my new followers, I hope you'll also subscribe and read @goodauth.bsky.social -- a site about politics and political science that I help to run. The focus is research-informed analysis, not bland punditry or dubious hot takes. Here's an example...

Enjoyed discussing the 2024 election with @johnsides.bsky.social of @goodauth.bsky.social tonight on the show. Listen to the interview and more at: www.blogtalkradio.com/kudzu/2024/1...