I’m ready to be hurt again. Let’s go.

D+8.5 (±2) would be 245 Dem seats on average

👀

I think this finding from our Oct. Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll was overlooked, and should shift some of the conventional wisdom about why Harris lost in 2024 and what the Dem. Party needs to do to win in 2026/2028. Anti-incumbent bias on the economy is underrated substack.com/@gelliottmor...

strategists/consultants don't often talk about role of external factors like structural trends, incumbency and economic conditions because they can't control them so can't sell their services off them, but these things determine the vast majority of elections and **analysts** should still pay attn

Canaries in coal mines.

Feels like there’s a growing GOP recognition that we’re in lame duck season:

Very interesting, importance, nuanced research on public attitudes.

Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters. We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk). But that doesn't tell the full story. Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):

Even though most Americans think the country is on the wrong track, they still wish for leaders who are willing to make compromises. People are twice as like to say they prefer leaders who make compromises over those who stick to their beliefs. via Gallup news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...

Yep. Parties overreact to much bigger currents driving elections. It makes sense but it doesn’t make it useful.

This sloppy field is killing all the player props today and Vegas is just laughing their asses off.

your weekly political data roundup is here: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-hits...

Banger lede of the day: “Michigan's top executives are offering a 12-step plan for breaking the state's addiction to failure.” www.detroitnews.com/story/opinio...

I tell students they are growing up during the death throes of the Archie Bunker era, a long period of reactionary backlash to the end of Jim Crow. You can see it in these survey data and the ages of who sits in Congress. Older folks (like me) are fighting the same battles they grew up with.

I feel like Jameis is just going to win the game tomorrow. Just with his weirdness. Feel like I could be his best friend if he’d let me.

This is almost exactly the "culture of honor" experiment in Cohen et al. (1996). psycnet.apa.org/buy/1996-017...

Anyway, this matters because people think voters are out here wildly changing their minds back and forth between elections, and the surveys of these elections show ~95% of folks are not doing that. Differential turnout can explain much of this movement.

History will eventually let us know how much of the 2015-2024 takeover of the GOP was driven by fear of physical violence.

Evidence of racial polarization in Georgia last week. In one race, a White D ran against a Black R; the inverse was true in the other. So, where did the White D over-perform the Black D? In whiter areas.

This is solid work and people should read it. I also think they are underestimating compositional effects by focusing on 2-party changes in NJ, and not on the other 1/3 of the electorate that is "unaffiliated." If Trump unaffiliateds disproportionately stayed home... www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...

The New Jersey governor’s race is the first significant sign that Trump’s success with Hispanic voters in 2024 may have been a temporary shift. Via @christinezhang.bsky.social and @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...

New Federal Fallout pod digging into Virginia election data Dems did well w young, Hispanic, Asian, Black, and college educated voters Some gains w White working class Dems trying to reverse big gains Trump made since 2016 Important implications for Senate podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

I tell students they are growing up during the death throes of the Archie Bunker era, a long period of reactionary backlash to the end of Jim Crow. You can see it in these survey data and the ages of who sits in Congress. Older folks (like me) are fighting the same battles they grew up with.

They are whipping the members for the Epstein vote. Test for the president.

🇧🇷 In #Brazil, - Solar grew from 0.01% in 2015 to 12% in 2025 - Met its 2030 renewable target 8 years early - Installed 60 GW of solar by Sept 2025 4/7

Those claiming Dems should retreat on racial justice aren't hard-headed realists, they're pushing against the electoral tide rather than leaning into it. The story of Gen Z isn't about racist backlash or red-pilled young men. It's the most racially progressive generation in American history. 🧵

Composition effects can fool you into misinterpreting public mood.

Incredibly smart PR tactic from ICE to continue assaulting very handsome priests

Got dragged to Predator Badlands and expectations were just south of getting hit by a bus. It was actually very fun and the 13 y.o. liked it a lot.

Beer in normal movie theaters is something we don’t celebrate enough.

Whoopsie

A quick recap of Election night in case you missed it!

This is out today in open access, and while it's very much a methodology piece, I think it's really important to building the foundation for how we move forward with understanding the role of gender in politics.

More voters came out for New Jersey’s 2025 general election than any other governor’s race in the past 27 years. www.nj.com/politics/202...

#OpenAccess from the latest issue of @journalrep.bsky.social - Supreme Prejudice: Examining the Supreme Court’s Racial & Criminal Biases - https://cup.org/42WfwU6 - Elizabeth Maltby & @abbymatthews.bsky.social#OpenAccess #JREP10

Stocks/crypto down pushes Trump approval down which lowers GOP/independent confidence which pushes stocks down…to the extent it’s been a Trump momentum trade that might be broken.

Never underestimate the ambitions of your political allies. Powerful enough to solve tricky collective action problems.

Good to see: @repyassansari.bsky.social tells me she expects 50 Republicans to vote to release Epstein files (agreeing w/MTG). Dems also want to bring in heads of financial institutions on Epstein transactions. "The dam is breaking," Ansari says. Listen to her here: newrepublic.com/article/2031...

I once had the privilege of teaching a women & politics courses at Texas A&M. I inherited the class from a colleague, but I made it fully my own (no one double-checked my syllabi). And the course addressed gender, sexuality, and intersectionality—b/c, obvi. I have never enjoyed teaching more! 1/

If you have to get permission to teach in your area of expertise from people who are definitionally not qualified to adjudicate your expertise then you are no longer working at a university. You’re working at a state propaganda factory.

Lavatories of democracy

Oreos are accidentally vegan.

If someone knows where to get 2025 NJ ballots returned by party (even if it's just for some counties), my students would very much appreciate it!

New public data from the @statenavigate.org folks. VA election results from *last week* tabulated at the state legislative district level. Good times. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Undocumented Students, Advocates Intensify Defense of In-State Tuition Laws www.insidehighered.com/news/governm...

Probably just liberal wishcasting but it really does feel like he’s got the stink on him now. Ambitious political friends sensing a real weakness and his instinctive bullying making him appear more guilty.