Perfect Eastern Tiger Swallowtail specimen on my coneflowers this afternoon.

It isn’t hyperbolic to say that SCOTUS is at war with the Reconstruction Amendments and multiracial democracy more broadly. We’re a liberal democracy and an apartheid planter society stitched together and it’s clear where the SCOTUS majority’s sympathies lie.

If your Legal Theory leads you to the same outcome a Jim Crow segregationist would want, you’re just a segregationist with a fancy degree. It’s that simple.

It’s a straight line from the segregationist Dixiecrats to the Roberts Court. While Roberts et al try to have the patina of respectability via a “color blind” view of the law, their underlying ideology would be right at home in the Jim Crow South.

It isn’t hyperbolic to say that SCOTUS is at war with the Reconstruction Amendments and multiracial democracy more broadly. We’re a liberal democracy and an apartheid planter society stitched together and it’s clear where the SCOTUS majority’s sympathies lie.

The thing that every Trump appointee has in common is a bottomless appetite to debase themselves in service to Dear Leader. When this era mercifully ends, clips like this will be used as evidence of our national mass delusion, which i imagine is a common theme in all post-authoritarian societies.

This should be Musk's legacy. Not the fucking cars and spaceships.

New paper from the social media-less Alexa Bankert and me. Here, we investigate the relationship between partisanship and out party antipathy. We find there’s a ton of variation within partisan groups in terms of out party hostility. 1/2 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Trump the blindingly ignorant President and Trump The Concept ™️ are only weakly related to each other. The coverage of the Iran War is a perfect example. How many almost “deals” do we need to hear about before people properly understand he’s bullshitting?

I am completely shocked by this tragic news. I really can't believe it. Raúl Pacheco-Vega was an outstanding scholar who did so much to promote good scholarship. Utterly devastating news.

Ten years in, and Trump remains a Rorschach Test where people can project whatever they desire to see onto him. Trump the real person with an observable track record is completely divorced from many people’s images of him. It‘s really quite amazing.

This is true and it still blows my mind every single day. Trump lives in a fantasy world of his own creation where Trump is the hero everyone worships and facts are irrelevant and subject to his whims. I get that. But how anyone on the planet still believes a word he says is beyond my comprehension.

The best political slogans, especially from neophytes, are vague enough for people to project what they want. Trump had three planks when he ran in 2016: "Build the wall, make America Great Again and repeal Obamacare." But since then, he has failed on the two objective ones. (MAGA is subjective).

Ten years in, and Trump remains a Rorschach Test where people can project whatever they desire to see onto him. Trump the real person with an observable track record is completely divorced from many people’s images of him. It‘s really quite amazing.

My model predicts that over the next two months, the White House will announce between eight and fifteen Iran deals, all of which will be applauded by Fox News. And I tell you the best place in Guyana to buy Kool-Aid. All that and more in the next Silver Bulletin.

🚨 I have an article out at APR titled “Educational Polarization in American Politics: More than Just a Diploma Divide” in which i look at how educational attainment shapes public opinion and political behavior across the entire education spectrum, not just the across the degree/no degree binary 1/x

Dems are starting to build a big lead (+7) in the generic ballot. Senate polling of individual races seems consistent with a solid Dem lead in the House. At this point, i think 235-240 seats are likely for the Dems in the House and the Senate is a coin flip. 1/2 fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

Dems are starting to build a big lead (+7) in the generic ballot. Senate polling of individual races seems consistent with a solid Dem lead in the House. At this point, i think 235-240 seats are likely for the Dems in the House and the Senate is a coin flip. 1/2 fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

I feel like a less cartoonishly inept authoritarian administration would find a subtler way to go about their little retribution scheme.

Regardless of whether Talarico wins, this race forces the Republicans to sink a ton of resources into TX, meaning they're spread thinner everywhere else. Expanding the map doesn't just open up the possibility of winning the TX Senate seat, it helps 1.) down ballot TX candidates 2.) everywhere else.

Regardless of whether Talarico wins, this race forces the Republicans to sink a ton of resources into TX, meaning they're spread thinner everywhere else. Expanding the map doesn't just open up the possibility of winning the TX Senate seat, it helps 1.) down ballot TX candidates 2.) everywhere else.

cc: John Cornyn. No amount of self abasement will satisfy the cult. thehill.com/homenews/sen...

cc: John Cornyn. No amount of self abasement will satisfy the cult. thehill.com/homenews/sen...

The UFC is a great example of everything that's gone wrong in American pop culture, sports, and the economy generally over the past few decades: an organization run entirely for the benefit of its owners that leaves broken minds and bodies in its wake while catering intentionally to awful people.

Nothing says “descent in fascism” like a UFC Octagon at the White House. Domination matters above all else.

“Substantial variation in out-party hostility exists at every level of partisan strength—even among the strongest partisans. We further show that ideological and issue-attitude strength meaningfully predict which strong partisans become most hostile toward the out-party.”

The educational divide has become a defining fault line in American politics. @zingherpolisci.bsky.social makes the case that it is reshaping the electoral map, gender relations, and the life prospects of young men without degrees. hubs.ly/Q04hHYp80

New paper from the social media-less Alexa Bankert and me. Here, we investigate the relationship between partisanship and out party antipathy. We find there’s a ton of variation within partisan groups in terms of out party hostility. 1/2 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Women’s educational attainment started to outpace men‘s at a time when education became much more strongly associated with partisanship. The diploma divide is also a gender divide, and Gen Z is the most extreme example. There are all sorts of downstream consequences in the labor/dating market.

It’s difficult if not impossible to fully disentangle the diploma divide, gender gap, and rise of right wing populism, as I argue here.

@zingherpolisci.bsky.social with a fantastic article on the educational divide between women and men. www.liberalism.org/p/educationa...

It’s difficult if not impossible to fully disentangle the diploma divide, gender gap, and rise of right wing populism, as I argue here.

New piece from me at @liberalism.org about educational polarization, gender politics, and the wayward fate of young men. www.liberalism.org/p/educationa...

New piece from me at @liberalism.org about educational polarization, gender politics, and the wayward fate of young men. www.liberalism.org/p/educationa...

New paper up at @theforum-degruyter.bsky.social. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi... 1/4 🧵

Trump is at 61% disapproval per Fox News’ recent poll. Everything is on the table.

Six national polls out over the last two days and Trump’s *highest* approval is 39 percent. We’re still 5+ months out, but the potential for an absolute wipeout is real and the odds are growing. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

Six national polls out over the last two days and Trump’s *highest* approval is 39 percent. We’re still 5+ months out, but the potential for an absolute wipeout is real and the odds are growing. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

APSA Statement on the Dismissal of the National Science Board

Pardoning the J6ers polled terribly before the 2024 election, but like a lot of things, was largely ignored as hyperbole at the time. I fully encourage the administration to dig in on this issue ahead of the midterms. Who doesn't love an administration that gives coup participants special treats?

Pardoning the J6ers polled terribly before the 2024 election, but like a lot of things, was largely ignored as hyperbole at the time. I fully encourage the administration to dig in on this issue ahead of the midterms. Who doesn't love an administration that gives coup participants special treats?

new WP (w/ @ntd.bsky.social): we use the case of Christian nationalism to make a broader point about "niche ideologies" in mass opinion research, and why you shouldn't scale them the same way you'd scale more general attitudes Link: osf.io/wbdut/files/...

If this is the case the Dems win a sizable house majority and ME, NC, AK senate seats bare minimum. Where things get more interesting is that a D +11 environment puts the OH/IA/TX/NE senate seats in play and also offices that people aren’t even discussing much, like TX and GA governor‘s mansions.

For context, the Teapot Dome scandal, which brought down numerous people during the Harding Administration, was over about 10 million dollars in today's money.

For context, the Teapot Dome scandal, which brought down numerous people during the Harding Administration, was over about 10 million dollars in today's money.

If this is the case the Dems win a sizable house majority and ME, NC, AK senate seats bare minimum. Where things get more interesting is that a D +11 environment puts the OH/IA/TX/NE senate seats in play and also offices that people aren’t even discussing much, like TX and GA governor‘s mansions.

Bill Cassidy coming in third in the LA Senate primary goes to show there is no appeasing the cult. You’re in, or you’re out, and no act of self abasement, even a doctor knowingly destroying the country’s public health system, is sufficient to make up for a lack of devotion to Dear Leader.

Signs you might be a far right authoritarian party (#3359):

Bill Cassidy coming in third in the LA Senate primary goes to show there is no appeasing the cult. You’re in, or you’re out, and no act of self abasement, even a doctor knowingly destroying the country’s public health system, is sufficient to make up for a lack of devotion to Dear Leader.

It’s going to be real tough to tell the history of this Era without spending a lot of time focusing on White people who Should Know Better shamelessly abandoning people of color the minute it became politically convenient.