Department floor is having a halloween door decor contest, I think our office wins for scariest @antoniaalksnis.bsky.social

Our conclusion is that survey professionalism is widespread on online panels, but these do not, by and large, distort inferences, making us cautiously optimistic about research using these online samples!

Very creative & well-done new @thejop.bsky.social: 🇩🇪 far-right support ⬆️ among people living near outdoor swimming pools when you enter summer months (when these pools become popular) -- but only in areas that have more immigrants. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

Good update with a different data point from @agadjanian.bsky.social

Biennial update on racial resentment trends in the CES: after a white Dems shift *away* from racially liberal trajectory in 2022, we're back in that direction in 2024.

Interesting new JEPS on POC solidarity building. Besides substantive contribution, another example of getting creative with experiments to learn about mechanisms (vs. conventional mediation analysis-only). On a very different topic, here's another good example along these methodological lines

Interesting new paper on this topic (www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...) -- misinfo itself has more direct, widespread consequences, but factual beliefs again seem to be outside of the equation

Two good places to donate for supporting LA wildfire relief efforts: 1. Eaton Fire Relief and Recovery Fund (from Pasadena Community Foundation) pasadenacf.org/supporting-o... 2. Immigrant Fire Relief Fund (from National Day Laborer Organizing Network) secure.actblue.com/donate/lafir...

APSR will start inviting replications for a random subset of accepted papers. I really like this as well as the constructive tone around it 👏 (from the latest Notes from the Editors)

texans against multiple outcome measures

Interesting perspectives. Feels like some disconnect from standard polisci accounts (e.g. effects of misinfo/fact-checks often have limited scope, but that doesn't mean misinfo is overall inconsequential www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...). Was also curious about this part and dug around on the cites...

Friends don't let friends capture operational ideology via self-described ideological ratings, a series

Super valuable new study that randomly assigns 7k+ Americans to old vs. new Census race formats. Among many interesting patterns: 1. White & "some other race" %'s ⬇️ by 6 and 4 pts. 2. No change in overall Hisp and Black %'s. 3. Small but detectable ⬇️ Black + Hisp responses.

“East Bay hot, South Bay not” was apparently a popular saying in like the 80s and I’m gonna bring it back

desliga o computador e vai me alimentar

Just now seeing this paper reanalyzing the "Many Teams" paper on racial bias in soccer (29 teams analyze the same RQ with the same data, find different results). This reanalysis finds that variation in findings results from theoretical / interpretive differences. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

REP Starter Pack go.bsky.app/GxR7Bkf

What are some good examples of political science papers using observational data published with null results?

Here's a nice new paper from the fully blueskyless author team of Philip Moniz, Rodrigo Ramirez-Perez, Erin Hartman, and Stephen Jessee, showing that survey exp. effects are similar for "eager" and "reluctant" respondents, with positive implications for generalizability doi.org/10.1017/pan....

I did not attend UNC, but I did attend *America.* So you’re damn right I’m rooting for UNC tonight.

It's wild to see some 2024 election polls show Hispanic vote split almost evenly across Biden/Trump (e.g. twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/st...) Took a quick look at what various polls in last month show + how they compare to same time last cycle (Dec. 2019). For 2024, even split is actually not that typical

For any Premier League fans out there: a look at team performance relative to what we'd expect from expected goals now that we're ~halfway through the season. Hoping some of this underperforming (Chelsea) and overperforming (Tottenham) balances out the rest of the way 😬

More on genetic ancestry tests from a great new American Journal of Sociology piece (using an RCT): these tests have important consequences for facets of whites' identities, but notably *do not* cause changes to how whites racially self-identify www.suleyaylaci.com/wp-content/u...

Me watching another paper I reviewed eventually get accepted for publication while still working through some roadblocks in my own research

Are presidential election polls predictive this far out from election day? Lot of skepticism, but as @gelliottmorris.bsky.social and I have shown, current era might contrast from earlier decades, e.g. poll predictiveness didn't change much over ~year before 2016. An update to now include 2020...

Really great, comprehensive paper on consequences of popular pro-police TV shows: -cops make more victimless crime+drug possession arrests when followed by cameras -no impact on public safety (solved crimes, amt of crime) -some public attitudes around police improve papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Between 38,200 and 44,500 buildings throughout the Gaza Strip (about 14% of all buildings in Gaza, and 25% of northern Gaza) have been damaged or destroyed since the war's beginning, new study finds. One of the most intense bombing campaigns of the 21st century by sorties/time & civilian casualties

A classic case of the Monday’s for someone in our department, you hate to see it

Last time USC football comes to Berkeley (RIP Pac-12)… never in doubt!!! (Just kidding it was, this team takes years off my life even though the season’s now meaningless 👍 👍 👍)

Far from most important thing about this right now, but a check-in on partisan public opinion around Israel/Palestine (from earlier this year, to immediate reaction, to a few weeks on): -everyone's making their minds up more (not sure ⬇️) -for Ds & Is, this means warmer to Palestine, for Rs, opposite

Current bus options for commuting to dept in Berkeley (left) vs. when I was going to work in Boston (right). Take me back, I want to have a positive relationship with public transportation again 😭

You should stay up and read more internet. You’re just getting to the good part

In case you missed it, polisky: *The Journal of Politics continues to accept Registered Report submissions until the end of June* We have extended the trial period🙂 (At the end of the year this team's editorial term will then run out) *Stats* 33 Submissions so far 2 In-Principle-Accepted Studies

I think most important findings from this study: 1) We confirm misinfo increases false beliefs, fact checks decrease them, for Rs and Ds both. 2) Some personality and cognitive measure correlate with the magnitudes, we think because they correlate with attention to the fact-check.

Survey experiments are ubiquitous in political science. But I have only found two articles assessing their external validity (Barabas and Jerit (2010) and Hainmueller et al (2015)). Am I missing some key literature here? [polisky]

Dispatch from a department reply all email chain: we’re now on email #4 about how to get the printer to work. Not sure if reply all’s are intentional. A natural end is in sight but I worry about the pace of email replies coming in. Only time will tell.

19th year anniversary, mandatory viewing today... I miss postseason baseball www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9Kx...

Our dept is hearing this talk later this week. Super interesting in and of itself but also in relation to other misperceptions work: this pattern of corrective info (a) affecting factual beliefs but (b) not affecting attitudes/behaviors is remarkable in how often it appears (& what it might imply)..

Poli sci leading the way among social sciences on sharing data/code; behind psych on preregistration.

A buggy whip throwback at a social science journal in the year 2023 statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/08/06/p...

My God, my God, why have you forsaken me!? This rain, it moves everything at once!

Fascinating & comprehensive study connecting racial minority support to real-world decision making: introduction of "Black-owned" business label on Yelp increases restaurant visits, orders, and revenue. Driven by white customers and more 1) Dem 2) low racial bias areas www.hbs.edu/ris/Publicat...

I see people in the department who suddenly start or stop wearing masks in the same way that Converse saw those 1950s ANES respondents with low over time stability in policy attitudes. Something ain't adding up

Forgot the name of Robert Putnam's book about democracy/social capital in Italy and almost googled around for "Bowling in Italy." Should've gone with that title tbh

Ariely/Gino: it's even worse than you thought. If Duke doesn't follow HBS, academic integrity means nothing. www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

Positive spin: all the spirit of design-based causal inference, just without the design #almostthere

Small bit amid everything, but how are people still using this type of logic to make sense of bad behavior? Just that little self-awareness? www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...