Another blockbuster from @pewresearch.org, on whether silicon samples can accurately simulate human survey respondent answers. They can’t.

Good post from Krugman on the economic vibes again, esp the last chart: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/bad-vibes-... In my piece last week I shared a new paper from Chris Wlezien and Derek Epp at UT Austin showing exactly what he theorizes, that people respond to inflation more in good times vs bad:

I am excited about this new paper, Negativity & Misinformation, just out with @cbwlezien.bsky.social in @polcommjournal.bsky.social: "durable biases in information processing, by media organizations and humans more generally, can produce misinformation and misperceptions..." doi.org/10.1080/1058...

1. Shoot people like dogs 2. Unrest 3. Martial law The plan is that transparent. Don’t let them

New Fox News poll shows Trump's approval on: Border Security: +2 Crime and public safety: -5 Immigration: -10 Foreign Policy: -15 Economy: -22 Healthcare: -25 Spending: -25 Tariffs: -28 static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/...

Source: news.gallup.com/poll/695762/...

Importantly, one can worry about what's happening AND think so-called "cancel culture" had pernicious/harmful aspects (as I do). But remarkable how few people do both and how disproportionate elite media attention is. Also, shouldn't we worry more when the state is wielding these powers?

"NBC News obtained a copy of a memo... summarizing the poll results. It was conducted by veteran Republican pollsters... and concluded 'that there is broad unity across party lines supporting vaccines such as measles (MMR), shingles, tetanus, diphtheria and pertussis (TDAP), and Hepatitis B.'"

Public opinion on social spending in the U.S. has long been known to shift in parallel across policy areas — but why? Here's an article with Steven van Hauwaert and Ryan Carlin that provides some answers, and it's open access: cup.org/3HdCwX3

Our paper (w/ wonderful co-authors @rwillh11.bsky.social, @simonweschle.bsky.social, @cbwlezien.bsky.social, and Jim Adams) is now out in print! 🎉 May be of interest to those studying electoral behavior, party strategy, or how citizens use information! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

💥Viktor Orbán’s demographic strategy is a disaster. Over the past decade, 37.8% of Hungary’s population decline was due to emigration to other EU countries. Hungary is losing the competition to retain its own citizens while birth rates tank. Read Direkt36's in-depth article on @vsquare.bsky.social👇

Another survey that shows a rebound in support for higher education. @cbwlezien.bsky.social www.insidehighered.com/news/student...

Our paper (w/ @cbwlezien.bsky.social) is now in print! Perhaps of interest to survey researchers contemplating whether/how to use the DK response option when measuring the public's policy preferences. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Gallup has new polling on immigration. Topline findings: -Americans hate Trump's immigration policy (35% approve, 62% disapprove) -Share who say immigration is a "good thing" for the country just hit an all-time high (79%) news.gallup.com/poll/692522/...

4 polls out today on the GOP budget bill Post-Ipsos: 23% support/42% oppose/34% no opin KFF: 35% favorable/64% unfave Pew: 29% favor/49% oppose/21% not sure Economist/YouGov: 35%-51% support-oppose www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... www.kff.org/medicaid/pol... www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

Most literature reviews miss the point.
 Not because they’re sloppy. 
But because they treat the literature like a box to tick. In my latest Respect the Marble Post, I carve out a 6-step process to writing a meaningful lit review: catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/most-liter... 🧵

Must read. Incredible and thoughtful first-person account. Surprisingly, the most shocking part is not journalists and college professors being arrested. It’s police trapping the crowd—giving a disperse order while blocking all the exits. via @smotus.bsky.social smotus.substack.com/p/arrested-i...

This is the type of behavior that impunity creates. It has always existed within law enforcement, but is strengthened when political leaders encourage and protect it and the state doesn't hold the perpetrators (order-givers and -executioners) accountable.

LLMs may sometimes act like humans because they’ve read the social science research telling them how they’re expected to act

In a record-breaking month, immigration judges fast-tracked asylum denials at a record pace, raising questions about due process, the politicization of the courts, and the future of the asylum system. (Via the indispensable @austinkocher.com) austinkocher.substack.com/p/immigratio...

So he's... defunding the police?

BREAKING: Federal judge finds that Trump exceeded his authority in his Alien Enemies Act proclamation addressing alleged members of Tren de Aragua, issuing a permanent injunction barring AEA proclamation-based removals from the Southern District of Texas.

David is absolutely right. If I may add: a nostalgic fantasy about a time that never existed. Even 100 years ago socialist parties could not win majorities against liberals and progressives. A siginifcant share of workers always supported the right and this coalition was necessary and successful.

Trump’s complete control over policy may be leading to actions the public – and his supporters – don’t want write @jackmaedgen.bsky.social, @snsoroka.bsky.social and @cbwlezien.bsky.social blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...

And now, a note on Bill Owens who, until this past week, was the executive producer of 60 Minutes. We’ll be back next week with another edition of 60 Minutes.

Trump denies disaster aid, tells states to do more. FEMA has denied federal assistance for tornadoes in Arkansas, flooding in WV, and a windstorm in Washington state. It also has refused NC’s request for extended relief funding in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. stateline.org/2025/04/25/t...

Can confirm that my NSF grant "How False Beliefs Form & How to Correct Them" was cancelled today because it is "not in alignment with current NSF priorities" Shocking that understanding how people are misled by false information is now a forbidden topic. Our work will continue but at a smaller scale

Exiling people beyond the protection of US law without due process is not only unconstitutional, it's a rejection of the entire American revolutionary project. Sending people "beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences" is one of the grievances enumerated in the Declaration of Independence.

@hjghassell.bsky.social & @cbwlezien.bsky.social examine the effects of providing public opinion information to journalists on their perceptions of the newsworthiness of different topics. Public opinion has some effect on journalists' perceptions, especially for low salience issues. Read more:

A parliamentary coalition would risk collapse, but we are stuck until January 20, 2029 unless Congressional Republicans suddenly grow vertebrae.

Congratulations, boss, you've done it: You're bigger than covid.

In case you missed it... www.france24.com/en/americas/...

1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.

Trump cases: Dropped. January 6 cases: Dropped. "For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law"

In case you missed it... www.reuters.com/world/us/hou...

🚨🎉Very excited to share our new paper with @rwillh11.bsky.social, James Adams, @simonweschle.bsky.social, and @cbwlezien.bsky.social!! Out today @JEPOP www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... A short thread 🧵 1/n

@hjghassell.bsky.social & @cbwlezien.bsky.social examine the effects of providing public opinion information to journalists on their perceptions of the newsworthiness of different topics. Public opinion has some effect on journalists' perceptions, especially for low salience issues. Read more:

I'm increasingly convinced that while the courts may temporarily stabilize some of the current chaos, they are not going to act when the Executive chooses to ignore them (case in point: bsky.app/profile/beth...) and that the ONLY lever is making Republicans scared enough about re-election to act

American science is under attack, likely to cause significant harms to our economy, national security, and scientific progress. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/14/o...

Teeing up the opportunity for SCOTUS to declare this all legal. To be clear, it is not constitutional whether SCOTUS says so or not for President to usurp Article 1 powers from congress without specific delegation of that power by congress.

The Pentagon is doubling the number of media outlets losing their workspaces. OUT: The New York Times, The Washington Post, NBC, CNN, Politico, The Hill, The War Zone, and NPR. IN: New York Post, The Washington Examiner, OANN, Newsmax, The Free Press, The Daily Caller, and Breitbart.

3) the most effective counter to this change - if there is one - will come from red state senators who represent biomedical hubs like Indianapolis, Austin, Atlanta, and the NC Research Triangle Universities and residents there should make a huge fuss! (Nobody will care about Boston)

Here is Judge Paul Engelmayer’s remarkable TRO barring (in effect) DOGE from accessing Treasury’s payment system & ordering (in effect) any DOGE person who has had access to destroy anything already copied. A short thread ... www.documentcloud.org/documents/25...

In South Carolina — NIH FUNDING: $256M JOBS SUPPORTED: 3,818 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SUPPORTED: $706M www.unitedformedicalresearch.org/nih-in-your-...

@hjghassell.bsky.social & @cbwlezien.bsky.social examine the effects of providing public opinion information to journalists on their perceptions of the newsworthiness of different topics. Public opinion has some effect on journalists' perceptions, especially for low salience issues. Read more here:

Totally unsurprised by these findings...

Have you heard of the thermostatic model of politics? @mattyglesias.bsky.social dubs it a 'prognostication superpower' while @johnsides.bsky.social dubs it 'the big LOL of politics'—explaining why the public often wants the opposite of what the government does. Here’s how it works & why it matters: