Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
📤 839
📥 249
📝 108
Political scientist, Ohio State
The vivid partisan sorting of US house districts by income and party -- 2005 -2024
17 days ago
1
28
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Given declining US confidence in institutions overall, striking that low election confidence is *not* a secular trend--instead 2020 is the disjuncture. Plot shows the winner/loser effect demonstrated by Charles Stewart and others. Data from
@mitelectionlab.bsky.social
18 days ago
0
5
4
In the April
@apsa.bsky.social
ejobs release, we're still tracking a 30% decline in political science tenure track jobs since 2023-24.
27 days ago
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10
10
Striking partisan stability in Israel/Gaza attitudes in the 2025 CES study
about 1 month ago
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2
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Political Science's academic job market having its worst post-Covid year -- almost 20% fewer jobs than at the same point in the previous cycle (which itself was bad!) Data scraped from APSA ejobs pdfs.
about 2 months ago
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39
Bookmakers have shifted Democratic chances of winning the White House in 2028 by 2pp since the start of the Iran war
about 2 months ago
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1
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Pedagogical opportunity to remind undergraduates that the Democratic party used to dominate the presidential vote in the Mahoning Valley.
about 2 months ago
0
2
1
APSA authored papers by subfield and department, 2018-2025. A coarse but interesting look at the areas of research activity in the discipline.
about 2 months ago
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4
3
To show prospective students our discipline's research priorities, I scraped the last 6
@apsa-preprints.bsky.social
annual meeting programs to count papers by section, then assigned sections to subfields. Polisci remains fascinated with the American case!
about 2 months ago
4
25
6
Things undergrads are surprised to learn -- there are only modest amounts spent on American politics. data from
@opensecrets.org
and US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2 months ago
0
1
0
Trump's first year in office saw a rapid decline in GOP affiliation, erasing the advantage in net partisanship that had endured during the Biden term. data from
@gallup.com
3 months ago
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Views of American industrial sectors remain strikingly non-ideological (save for the publishing, the movie industry, and fossil fuels).
3 months ago
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1
1
The consequences of low media trust and Republican partisanship--only 1 news media source enjoys over 30% use among those partisans. Data from
@pewresearch.org
's American Trends Panel, March 2025.
3 months ago
0
2
2
Among the most vivid declines in the American people's trust -- their diminished trust in other people. Data from
@gallup.com
's Social Series.
3 months ago
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7
3
The shrinking levels of white ethnocentrism in the
@electionstudies.bsky.social
Cumulative Datafile conceal a pretty striking partisan effect: since around 2012 very low ethnocentrism among white Democrats, but the opposite effect among other Democrats.
3 months ago
0
3
1
With thanks to
amengel.bsky.social
, the decline is far more modest when I take proper account for the administrative codes in the feeling thermometers
5 months ago
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3
Americans have become increasingly confident that their votes are counted as intended—aside from a sharp drop among Republicans in 2020. Data from the Survey of the Performance of American Elections.
5 months ago
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4
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When 'When Prophecy Fails' Fails:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
(h/t
@ethanvporter.bsky.social
)
loading . . .
Debunking “When Prophecy Fails”
In 1954, Dorothy Martin predicted an apocalyptic flood and promised her followers rescue by flying saucers. When neither arrived, she recanted, her group dissolved, and efforts to proselytize ceased....
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jhbs.70043?campaign=woletoc
6 months ago
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4
4
In 2025, polarization on schools & the Supreme Court leaves only Banks + Big Business with moderate/high confidence across parties. Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data:
@gallup.com
Social Series.
6 months ago
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6
2
The recent reversal in Republicans' moral approval of Gay and Lesbian relations is even more striking in context -- it does *not* coincide with more restrictive moral licensing in other areas. Data from Gallup's Social Series.
6 months ago
1
4
0
The inversion between income and Whites' presidential vote is also found among the validated voters in the just released Cooperative Election Study.
7 months ago
0
5
1
Something undergrads after often surprised to find out--there's curiously little money in American politics.
7 months ago
0
3
0
The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the
@electionstudies.bsky.social
ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters. Updated estimates here:
7 months ago
9
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Rapid secularization of Democratic politics continues -- in the 2024 ANES, only 54% of Democrats reported religion an important part of their life.
7 months ago
2
11
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Trump's presidency has coincided with a rapid decline in GOP partisan advantage -- a 5 percentage point decline since the end of Biden's presidency. Data from Gallup social series.
7 months ago
1
3
0
Might be of interest to those teaching American politics -- motivated reasoning in retrospective economic/personal/geostrategic evaluation has been a stable part of presidential elections for 40 years. Data from the
@electionstudies.bsky.social
CDF and 2024 timeseries.
7 months ago
0
4
3
By the end of 2024, Stimson's Policy Mood was near 20 year highs in liberal policy support. (Ht
@mattgrossmann.bsky.social
for tweeting the new data!)
8 months ago
0
8
2
As expected, the change in government sharply reduced Democrats’ trust in the CDC and FDA. But surprisingly, by 2025 Democrats now express higher trust in federal health authorities than Republicans do.
8 months ago
0
2
1
With initial data, it appears that Trump's 2nd term approval is weakly related to consumer confidence.
9 months ago
0
1
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The rightward shift in young men's partisanship is recent -- since 2024. data from the
@pewresearch.org
's NPORS study.
9 months ago
0
3
0
Even Republicans have not recovered their pre-pandemic levels of economic confidence. Data from the University of Michigan ISR's (bsky-less?) consumer sentiment survey
10 months ago
0
3
1
Presidential vote has only been correlated with life expectancy since 2008, and even then the effect is strongest among whites.
11 months ago
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2
0
While liberals have moved almost a full scale point more supportive of free trade since the election (on a 7pt scale) conservatives are unmoved. A super interesting case for the role of elites in shaping mass attitudes. Data from the incredible
@prl.bsky.social
's 'America's Political Pulse.'
11 months ago
1
0
1
Outside of a tiny number of super polarized issues (in this case, immigration and climate change), the American public basically agrees on the topics deserving of national attention. Data from AP-NORC.
11 months ago
0
5
1
Gun control attitudes continue to depolarize (on the margins!) in the 2024 General Social Survey. Data from
@norc.org
11 months ago
0
1
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It's only on questions of race where younger generations are less tolerant -- for the other speakers on the GSS, Gen Z/Millenials basically indistinguishable from other Americans.
11 months ago
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1
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National political spending preferences by partisanship, 1972-2024. Fascinating that numerous policy areas have seen negligble polarization over this period. Data from
@norc.org
's GSS
11 months ago
0
10
5
Confidence in national institutions, by partisanship, 1974-2024. The collapse in Democrats' Supreme Court confidence in 2022-2024 is the largest single year change seen in 50 years. Data from the GSS
@norc.org
11 months ago
1
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The newly released GSS shows Whites continue to liberalize in their perceived cause of racial economic inequality.
11 months ago
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Stark class income * partisan effect also apparent in 119th Congress's congressional districts:
11 months ago
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Abortion attidudes depolarized (on the margins!) in the newly released 2024 General Social Survey from
@norc.org
.
11 months ago
1
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Presidential vote among whites shows continued income polarization (data from
@electionstudies.bsky.social
's 2024 timeseries), with income negatively correlated to GOP presidential vote.
11 months ago
9
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It's not just the coastal universities -- a plurality of conservatives perceive even the flagship public university in their state to be liberal.
12 months ago
0
4
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If the Papal pick leaked, no one made it to the bookmakers...
12 months ago
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With the release of the 2024 ANES, further evidence that Trump's invovlement in US politics had the effect of *reducing* authoritarianism in the public (in a thermostatic style--of course!--with larger changes among Democratic voters) Data from
@electionstudies.bsky.social
CDF and 2024ts
12 months ago
0
10
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The Australian Federal election swing in historical context (1943-2025). The shift in two-party preference is more modest than I expected, given the swing in seats.
#auspol
12 months ago
0
3
1
In April, Republicans in the UofM Consumer Sentiment adjudged national business conditions the best they'd been since the pandemic.
12 months ago
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The 2024 election saw a modest *depolarization* in whites' answers to the racial resentment battery among
@electionstudies.bsky.social
respondents.
about 1 year ago
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In the newly released 2024 ANES (
@electionstudies.bsky.social
), racial groups see modest partisan differences in affect. Other groups (Big Business, Labor Unions, the FBI) less polarized than recent cycles.
about 1 year ago
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2
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Partisanship swamps other factors in determining support for recent policies, even when they seemingly implicate traditional support for free expression. Data from
@thefireorg.bsky.social
's April 2025 National Speech Index, part of
@prl.bsky.social
's fantastic national panel.
about 1 year ago
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