Current house effects for Trump approval polls:

Trump wasn't anti-immigration in his Reform phase. He called Pat Buchanan a racist. Trump was pro-choice then too and not with the NRA. Buchanan beat him. When Trump resurfaced ten years later, he'd stolen Buchanan's act. That, plus a big boost from The Apprentice Buchanan lacked, is the story.

There are MANY reasons for skepticism re this 3rd party effort! But ballot access isn't the biggest. With enough money and effort it CAN be secured in most if not all states. Hurdles vary by state, but it's a myth that ballot access rules are a key bulwark of the two-party system. 1)

Freedom Caucus really caused trouble for GOP Speakers before Trump. Their rebellions actually pushed policy leftward as leaders from Boehner to Johnson needed Democratic votes to "keep the lights on" and this limited cuts. Trump has tamed them. Would this have happened with any GOP President?

Interesting piece. A counterfactual is what if the Iran strike had gone very badly, i.e. US planes crashed or serious Iranian retaliation ? But the broader point that power may be based on faulty or exaggerated perceptions is valid. Remember Grover Norquist?

The words "tariffs" & "Russia" don't appear in this piece! Bouie concedes, "you can attribute some of the worst of this administration to the specific authoritarian vision of Trump and his allies." OTOH Trump's breaking of his pledge to protect Medicaid undermines claims for his distinctiveness. 1)

Of the two GOP defectors, one said it went too far and the other said it didn't go far enough. Many others made similar complaints, but, predictably, folded.

The House has passed H.R. 1, the one big ugly bill. The final vote is 218-214, with all Democrats plus Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) voting no and all other Republicans voting yes.

"AI Peer Reviews"- the most shamefully unprofessional and unethical thing I can imagine in the academic context. Why do you even want to do this job?

We don't, but we know swing voters have short attention spans. There's no perfect "comp", but Dobbs decision was very unpopular and DID seem to hurt the GOP in 2022. It wasn't done by Congress directly. BUT it also was less than 5 months before the election & GOP still flipped the House. 1)

This amounts to most of the major Republican priorities, passed relatively quickly via a partisan majority with limited compromises. This is not the norm & more successful than previous two unified governments. It's also a partial repeal of the IRA, Obamacare, & farm bill deals

Rep. Davidson (R.-OH.) voted AGAINST the House version of the bill. He is now voting FOR the Senate version, which is supposedly further from his preferences:

Mitch McConnell and Don Bacon, Trump critics, are retiring, but still for this bill. It's not that many Rs aren't intimidated by Trump or don't sincerely disagree with him on some things, but for most this bill isn't one of them. The bigger obstacle is Rs who say the bill doesn't go far enough.

area woman made mistake of looking at the comments on tiktok showcasing recent poll

Extreme partisanship is a psychological phenomenon. But even many unafflicted go through high school and college without learning about survey research. That a sample that is a tiny fraction of the public can still be informative is not intuitive to all and their intuitions are seldom challenged.

Collins & Murkowski seem to take turns voting no. Collins voted for Kavanaugh. Murkowski voted for Amy Coney Barrett. Now Murkowski backs this bill, allowing Collins to craft a moderate image useful in Maine without actually impeding the GOP's agenda. Murkowski remains more of a puzzle. 1)

This depends on the issue. I don't believe Senate Republicans almost all thought Hegseth and RFK Jr were good picks, or that Trump's Ukraine and tariff policies are good. But most of the Big Beautiful Bill is indeed what they want, at least as much as what he does.

The drop was across almost all news sites, even if the Post was above average. There is longstanding criticism of "horse race coverage" at the expense of policy, but the drop off after the election year is evidence that readers/viewers LIKE the horse race.

I think that we must concede that the late great Senator McCain, historical role here notwithstanding, probably did not have deeply-rooted convictions re or interest in health care policy! He did cite procedural & policy concerns, but was mad at Trump and McConnell, and handed them a huge defeat.

Incumbency advantage is not what it was, and Tillis was probably doomed anyway, if not in a primary, then at the hands of Roy Cooper. The main impact of his announcement is that he could be more independent now. But after this bill, there isn't some big GOP agenda. www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...

My survey also asked NYC Democrats about their views & their sense of Cuomo & Mamdani's views on key issues. Agreement/disagreement on what questions predicted first-round support? * ideology ✅ * crime ✅ * housing ❌ * congestion pricing ❌ * Israeli/Palestinian conflict ❌

Understandably, there's a focus on Trump & DOJ, but re "elites", UVA's board have only 4 yr terms, so almost all are Youngkin picks. That's too short a term to insure independence. U. of California Regents once served 16 years, now 12 years. Gov. Reagan needed some Dems support to oust Clark Kerr.

Dems' education-based turnout advantage may be reduced in midterms compared to special elections, since turnout is higher in midterms. But it won't be zero. A swing against the President's party is normal. Dems need to gain only 3 seats to flip the House. It's be surprising if they didn't manage.

Cuomo was feared, not loved. This guy highlights collective action problem "establishment" faced re Cuomo, who seemed likely to win and is vindictive. The only way to override this bandwagon dynamic was for a strong, acceptable alternative focal point to emerge early. Could've been Tish James.

Bsky posters could see a poll showing Gen X being pro-Cuomo and say, "We suck". They can't say that about Black voters though, but it's awkward to note most backed Cuomo, so a discreet silence will be observed re Mamdani's loss of this sector.

"I consider him (Putin) a person I think is misguided," Trump said. Grading on a curve, that is strong criticism of Putin by Trump. He had a tough tweet or two as well, but this is still above average.

The survival of the Byrd Rule, the filibuster and even the blue slip procedure (!) -which Schumer used to block a US Atty nominee in New York- under unified GOP govt is striking, given all the discussion of Trump and authoritarianism. www.axios.com/2025/06/23/s...

Mamdani’s victory clearly demonstrates that [insert preexisting hobbyhorse TKTKTK].

Polling primaries is harder than general elections both because turnout fluctuates more and is hard to model, and because absent the anchor of party identification, voters are more mobile. Polls caught Mamdani's rise, but not its extent. Emerson did have him winning, just not leading 1st round.

There is periodic debate here about impeachment. There WAS an Iran-related impeachment motion offered by Rep. Al Green today -it was easily tabled- and got minimal news coverage. If every Dem had voted yes -most didn't-the united GOP still would've blocked it. clerk.house.gov/evs/2025/rol...

Mitch McConnell isn't running again. That has freed him up to oppose Trump nominees, including Hegseth and RFK Jr, but also to say things like this (from Punchbowl):

A big deviation from the waning seniority norm here. The different result from last year partially reflects the late Jerry Connelly being held in higher regard than Stephen Lynch, but also Garcia being less polarizing than AOC, who'd alienated colleagues by backing primary challenges to incumbents.

This is correct & why I have long advocated a Grand Bargain in which the US goes metric in exchange for the rest of the world adopting a temp system suited to humans who experience 0° as very cold and 100° as very hot

It's Complicated: Some VERY rich people ARE backing Cuomo. It's also true that he polls better with lower-income voters & people of color than Mamdani. As with Bernie Sanders' weakness w/Black voters, this is awkward for many progressives to acknowledge.

There's nothing in Reagan's record like Vance's rapid, opportunistic shift from NeverTrumper to MAGA. Reagan was a Hollywood liberal early on, but his move to the right was many years before he ran for office. He didn't back a man he'd called a potential Hitler either.

Vance is calculating re his rhetoric. For example, he had a more civil debate with Walz than Trump had with any of his opponents. But then he will also use rhetoric no one at this level in politics did before Trump, even at a serious moment like this.

This is important context, but: 1. We can expect at least more Republican support for Trump's strike on Iran coming days. 2. Wars weaken Presidents politically to the extent that they drag on and there are continuing US casualties. The three earlier cases were extended ground wars.

This is not to justify, either on legal or policy grounds, the Iran strike, but there's a lot of misleading commentary on this site that some sort of unprecedented dictatorial red line was crossed tonight. Of all of Trump's executive power aggrandizement, this has the most bipartisan precedent.

Some Post-WWII uses of force without Congressional approval: Air or missile strikes: Libya (1986), Yugoslavia (1995,1999), Libya (2011), Syria (2017), Iran (Solemani Assassination 2020) Troops: Dominican Republic (1965), Grenada (1983), Panama (1989), Somalia (1992/1993), Haiti (1994) 2)

I am not sure if these quotes are "brutal," but on the record criticism of Trump by Republicans is uncommon, and the pocket recission is worth the read.

This would take him away from his important duties at the Kennedy Center.

It's not just that a President is saying this, but he is saying it about someone he initially appointed!

Trump wasn't a candidate or officeholder in 2002 but he was a public figure and backed the Iraq War -if unenthusiastically- telling Howard Stern,"Yeah, I guess so. I wish the first time it was done correctly.”. By the time of this debate, Trump insisted he had always opposed the war.

No declarations of war since WWII. Many uses of force. Some authorized by Congress, others not. War Powers Resolution was meant to rein in Presidents, but doesn't require a vote prior to use of force. Not only have airstrikes been undertaken without one, "small" invasions have been as well. 1)

The abiding faith of many here that if only the NYT had the right headline wording, or called Trump a liar a few hundred more times, Things Would Be Different is always bizarre. The swing voting NYT reader who hasn't heard Trump is bad is an imaginary creature.

“In societies that have a reasonably free press, a persuadable bloc of citizens and free and fair elections, the historical, psychological and political evidence shows movements are most effective when they remain nonviolent and build broad coalitions.” Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/o...

This is a bell that is hard to unring,even if Democrats sweep elections in 2026/8. It will have an impact on young people considering federal jobs for years. Memories do fade, and young people don't remember and tend to discount the past, but that's a long way off in the best case scenario.

This is probably correct, not that people can't be slippery in print. Everything about a debate distracts from ideas, audio and video especially. But it's a post-literate age. People are increasingly comfortable and shameless about not reading, so [INSERT IRONIC SHRUGGIE EMOJI HERE]

"Some GOP members flipped their votes from “no” to “yes” toward the end after realizing it wouldn’t pass otherwise." A reminder that votes cast by legislators are not always their true position. The "flippers" had wanted to seem moderate as long as their party won the vote/they could avoid blame.1)

The architect of the "Anaconda Plan" and early Union commander, Winfield Scott, was a Virginian from much further south than Robert E. Lee, but he stayed with the Union.