Little discussed, but Senate Republicans ARE impeding Trump in some ways. 1. Refusing to nuke the filibuster, which means no SAVE Act 2. Still adhering to the Blue Slip custom, which requires Trump to win approval from Dem senators before appointing US Attys or District Court Judges in their states

As a political scientist, I am contractually required to repost this:

First Cassidy was crushed, now Massie goes down and it's not close. Had MTG not ducked out, she might have lost tonight as well.

He did not pull it off.

Yes, because Georgia is changing. This is mostly NOT about Ossoff. In 2012 Obama was about 6 pts weaker in Georgia than his national showing. Harris was slightly above her national percentage there.

Trump says:"Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough" (Cornyn voted to certify the 2020 election). Cornyn's record isn't new, but Trump fears backing a loser. So he must have polls showing it was safe to back Paxton.

A similar case: Robert Bennett finished 3rd at the GOP State Convention in Utah in 2010, back when a candidate needed to finish 1st or 2nd to get on the primary ballot. He was blindsided by the Tea Party although he was quite conservative. Cassidy's loss stems from his vote to convict Trump.

Bill Cassidy -a two term senator- is in 3rd place in his primary, because he voted to convict Trump in 2021. Despite his voting with the GOP since then, Trump and Republican voters did not forgive him. It's still Trump's party: www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...

Need to set it up so some admin can take credit for "architecting and spearheading the implementation of the handwriting initiative"

I spoke recently with @wusa9.com.web.brid.gy (streaming) about a bill designed to protect federal workers' credit during shutdowns. My segment starts around 19:15 and runs for seven minutes.

1. There are a *lot* of things (including the voter suppression bill) that might have passed if the filibuster was fully gone. 2. One of the reason the *majority* likes the filibuster is it gives them an excuse to not do surface-popular things they think are bad ideas.

The possibility of one party being locked out of the general election under the Top Two system isn't new. Kamala Harris faced another Democrat, Loretta Sanchez, in her 2016 Senate race. Feinstein won her last race against a Democrat (Kevin deLeon) too. Dems didn't think it'd happen to them though.

ALL major European leaders are unpopular. Macron & Merz are even less popular than Starmer. Anti-incumbent anti-system-mood and unhappiness re prices -present when Starmer won and Harris lost in 2024- persists. Probably a mistake to think it's mostly due to a given leader's messaging.

A huge thing to the credit of Ted Turner: he was widely criticized for his dumb and stupid classic movie colorization scheme and instead of doubling down and crashing out over the negative publicity, he listened to the criticism and launched Turner Classic Movies.

This distinction isn't decisive normatively. The best defense of the CA & VA maps is as a necessary evil, due to GOP maps elsewhere. Voters have often done bad things, including ratifying disenfranchisement of other voters! CA & VA voters also approved bans on same-sex marriage not so long ago.

There probably are not actually this many Hungarian Bluesky users with strong feelings about Vance who were on the fence about Orban. Not everything is about us.

Not just "incumbents can lose", but the opposition can win a supermajority! That being the case, I'd suggest the "competitive authoritarian" category/concept is somewhat overbroad/overhyped. Also, Bluesky should recognize that Magyar beating Orban is analogous to Liz Cheney defeating Trump. 1)

In a narrowly-averted scenario, Swalwell might have been the only Democratic finalist in the general election before this scandal hit. If so, THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN NO WAY TO REPLACE HIM, b/c under the anti-party Top Two system, candidates aren't party nominees! No late write-ins allowed either! 1)

Current house effects for Trump approval polls:

Trump wasn't anti-immigration in his Reform phase. He called Pat Buchanan a racist. Trump was pro-choice then too and not with the NRA. Buchanan beat him. When Trump resurfaced ten years later, he'd stolen Buchanan's act. That, plus a big boost from The Apprentice Buchanan lacked, is the story.

There are MANY reasons for skepticism re this 3rd party effort! But ballot access isn't the biggest. With enough money and effort it CAN be secured in most if not all states. Hurdles vary by state, but it's a myth that ballot access rules are a key bulwark of the two-party system. 1)

Freedom Caucus really caused trouble for GOP Speakers before Trump. Their rebellions actually pushed policy leftward as leaders from Boehner to Johnson needed Democratic votes to "keep the lights on" and this limited cuts. Trump has tamed them. Would this have happened with any GOP President?

Interesting piece. A counterfactual is what if the Iran strike had gone very badly, i.e. US planes crashed or serious Iranian retaliation ? But the broader point that power may be based on faulty or exaggerated perceptions is valid. Remember Grover Norquist?

The words "tariffs" & "Russia" don't appear in this piece! Bouie concedes, "you can attribute some of the worst of this administration to the specific authoritarian vision of Trump and his allies." OTOH Trump's breaking of his pledge to protect Medicaid undermines claims for his distinctiveness. 1)

Of the two GOP defectors, one said it went too far and the other said it didn't go far enough. Many others made similar complaints, but, predictably, folded.

The House has passed H.R. 1, the one big ugly bill. The final vote is 218-214, with all Democrats plus Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) voting no and all other Republicans voting yes.

"AI Peer Reviews"- the most shamefully unprofessional and unethical thing I can imagine in the academic context. Why do you even want to do this job?

We don't, but we know swing voters have short attention spans. There's no perfect "comp", but Dobbs decision was very unpopular and DID seem to hurt the GOP in 2022. It wasn't done by Congress directly. BUT it also was less than 5 months before the election & GOP still flipped the House. 1)

This amounts to most of the major Republican priorities, passed relatively quickly via a partisan majority with limited compromises. This is not the norm & more successful than previous two unified governments. It's also a partial repeal of the IRA, Obamacare, & farm bill deals

Rep. Davidson (R.-OH.) voted AGAINST the House version of the bill. He is now voting FOR the Senate version, which is supposedly further from his preferences:

Mitch McConnell and Don Bacon, Trump critics, are retiring, but still for this bill. It's not that many Rs aren't intimidated by Trump or don't sincerely disagree with him on some things, but for most this bill isn't one of them. The bigger obstacle is Rs who say the bill doesn't go far enough.

area woman made mistake of looking at the comments on tiktok showcasing recent poll

Extreme partisanship is a psychological phenomenon. But even many unafflicted go through high school and college without learning about survey research. That a sample that is a tiny fraction of the public can still be informative is not intuitive to all and their intuitions are seldom challenged.

Collins & Murkowski seem to take turns voting no. Collins voted for Kavanaugh. Murkowski voted for Amy Coney Barrett. Now Murkowski backs this bill, allowing Collins to craft a moderate image useful in Maine without actually impeding the GOP's agenda. Murkowski remains more of a puzzle. 1)

This depends on the issue. I don't believe Senate Republicans almost all thought Hegseth and RFK Jr were good picks, or that Trump's Ukraine and tariff policies are good. But most of the Big Beautiful Bill is indeed what they want, at least as much as what he does.

The drop was across almost all news sites, even if the Post was above average. There is longstanding criticism of "horse race coverage" at the expense of policy, but the drop off after the election year is evidence that readers/viewers LIKE the horse race.

I think that we must concede that the late great Senator McCain, historical role here notwithstanding, probably did not have deeply-rooted convictions re or interest in health care policy! He did cite procedural & policy concerns, but was mad at Trump and McConnell, and handed them a huge defeat.

Incumbency advantage is not what it was, and Tillis was probably doomed anyway, if not in a primary, then at the hands of Roy Cooper. The main impact of his announcement is that he could be more independent now. But after this bill, there isn't some big GOP agenda. www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...

My survey also asked NYC Democrats about their views & their sense of Cuomo & Mamdani's views on key issues. Agreement/disagreement on what questions predicted first-round support? * ideology ✅ * crime ✅ * housing ❌ * congestion pricing ❌ * Israeli/Palestinian conflict ❌

Understandably, there's a focus on Trump & DOJ, but re "elites", UVA's board have only 4 yr terms, so almost all are Youngkin picks. That's too short a term to insure independence. U. of California Regents once served 16 years, now 12 years. Gov. Reagan needed some Dems support to oust Clark Kerr.

Dems' education-based turnout advantage may be reduced in midterms compared to special elections, since turnout is higher in midterms. But it won't be zero. A swing against the President's party is normal. Dems need to gain only 3 seats to flip the House. It's be surprising if they didn't manage.

Cuomo was feared, not loved. This guy highlights collective action problem "establishment" faced re Cuomo, who seemed likely to win and is vindictive. The only way to override this bandwagon dynamic was for a strong, acceptable alternative focal point to emerge early. Could've been Tish James.

Bsky posters could see a poll showing Gen X being pro-Cuomo and say, "We suck". They can't say that about Black voters though, but it's awkward to note most backed Cuomo, so a discreet silence will be observed re Mamdani's loss of this sector.

"I consider him (Putin) a person I think is misguided," Trump said. Grading on a curve, that is strong criticism of Putin by Trump. He had a tough tweet or two as well, but this is still above average.

The survival of the Byrd Rule, the filibuster and even the blue slip procedure (!) -which Schumer used to block a US Atty nominee in New York- under unified GOP govt is striking, given all the discussion of Trump and authoritarianism. www.axios.com/2025/06/23/s...

Mamdani’s victory clearly demonstrates that [insert preexisting hobbyhorse TKTKTK].

Polling primaries is harder than general elections both because turnout fluctuates more and is hard to model, and because absent the anchor of party identification, voters are more mobile. Polls caught Mamdani's rise, but not its extent. Emerson did have him winning, just not leading 1st round.

There is periodic debate here about impeachment. There WAS an Iran-related impeachment motion offered by Rep. Al Green today -it was easily tabled- and got minimal news coverage. If every Dem had voted yes -most didn't-the united GOP still would've blocked it. clerk.house.gov/evs/2025/rol...

Mitch McConnell isn't running again. That has freed him up to oppose Trump nominees, including Hegseth and RFK Jr, but also to say things like this (from Punchbowl):

A big deviation from the waning seniority norm here. The different result from last year partially reflects the late Jerry Connelly being held in higher regard than Stephen Lynch, but also Garcia being less polarizing than AOC, who'd alienated colleagues by backing primary challenges to incumbents.