Nevada Republicans want to unseat Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar and retake control of this important election post in this perennial swing state. They first need to avoid nominating some of the far-right losers of yesteryear, including the one and only Sharron Angle.

Juliana Stratton's win, like Angela Alsobrooks' victory in the 2024 Dem primary for Maryland Senate, is a reminder that one candidate amassing a giant lead in the polls long before the primary can be a mirage when the other side has the resources to go up when voters are actually paying attention.

Can confirm!

Many in the GOP badly want Florida to pass an aggressive new congressional map. But one top Republican is warning about going too big—and there are now questions about whether they'll be able to get it done at all, since the legislature is at war with itself. We explain in today's newsletter -->

A HUGE opening night for the 2026 primary season is over, and The Downballot has a fresh rundown of an evening that saw James Talarico win the Dem nod for Texas' U.S. Senate seat, GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw become the first member of Congress to lose reelection, a Dem pickup in Arkansas, and a lot more.

JUST IN: Democrat Alex Holladay has flipped a GOP-held seat in *Arkansas*. Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders tried hard to delay this race and wanted the seat to stay vacant for 8+ months, but the courts told her to hold it today. If she was worried, she was right to be. Our full recap:

As you hunker down for primary night—the first polls start closing in a couple of hours—be sure to get up to speed on all the critical races with our comprehensive guide. We've previewed 40 different contests!

The Downballot Announces It Never Teaming Up With Gambling Sites

We've got previews of *forty* different major elections taking place tomorrow. This is a post you definitely won't want to miss out on.

The 2026 primary season is here, and so is The Downballot's very first primary preview of the cycle! We have our big rundown of what to watch in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas.

Something really strange just happened in #NC04: A TV station took down an ad from a candidate. Federal law has been very clear for a very long time that this isn't allowed. It all goes back to the New Deal, the 1956 race for #NDSen, and an alleged communist plot. Our deep dive →

One of the West Wing's lasting legacies is Bruno Gianelli's rant about how Democrats respond to GOP extremism by rolling up and saying, "Please. Don't. Hurt. Me." When Ds are told to not talk about something like trans rights because of the polls, it’s “Please. Don't. Hurt. Me” politics in action.

This is very strange. Broadcast TV stations cannot reject or censor ads from federal candidates, even if they think they might be defamatory. However, a local CBS station in North Carolina seems to have pulled an ad from Rep. Valerie Foushee after a complaint by her primary opponent.

You cannot lose if you do not play.

The new UT/TX Politics Project poll does not meet at least two of our rules for reporting polls: 1) It was in the field for 15 days. The maximum we allow is an already-long 14. 2) It didn't allow respondents to say they're undecided. There's another concern as well.

In a classic Florida story, this special election was both caused by *and* delayed by Ron DeSantis, who tapped a loyalist despised by the House GOP for a local post in Palm Beach County. Then he refused to call an election until the Dem pictured below, Emily Gregory, sued. Now it's on for March 24.

Confident that in the more than 20 year history of the Swing State Project/Daily Kos Elections/The Downballot, we have never written about hip-hop as much as we have in today's Morning Digest.

Everyone used to understand that, when Trump issued an endorsement to a single candidate, anyone who didn’t receive his blessing was out of luck. But even Trump these days isn't immune to pressure campaigns aimed at getting him to extend his "complete and total endorsement" to a second choice.

Donald Trump is widely viewed as a titanic power in GOP politics—and he usually is. But wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson's decision to drop her bid for #AZGov was a real case of the tail wagging the dog, as we explain in today's newsletter. More here: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

Final result in OK is 64-36 GOP win *BUT* this was a Trump+58 seat, so that's a 29-point overperformance for Dems. Also two smaller overperformances in deep-blue VA districts—but it's usually hard to run up the score in a lopsided district. Our Big Board: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

"They're going to put ICE at the polls in the midterms!" Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?

Much of political coverage still insists Trump may be unpopular, but the Democratic brand is so bad it might be a wash. But here we see Democrats scoring huge wins in red Southern districts ...

"Since Trump returned to the White House, Democrats have picked up eight Republican-controlled districts through special elections, as well as 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November. Republicans have flipped none."

Most of my experience watching Louisiana politics has been seeing Democrats lose ground on Trump turf. Not tonight!

When I talk about the margin bros, it's not just mildly pejorative.

To anyone laid off from the Post today, we are hiring:

I read a ton of election news every day and can say with certainty that Patrick Svitek is one of the best reporters out there. To quote Jay Landsman from The Wire: "I don't say that about many people. Even when they're here on the felt, I don't give that one up unless it happens to be true."

This is just awful news. Patrick is one of the best reporters out there, and we relied on his work constantly, including his reporting for the Texas Tribune before he went to WaPo. We would hire him if only we could. x.com/PatrickSvite...

Noah is a friend of a friend. Help get him home!

What would happen if Trump tried to send troops to disrupt the midterms? Undaunted voters in the Twin Cities just gave us an answer: It could backfire very, very badly. New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.

If James did seek reelection to the House after being bullied out of the governor's race, I hope Democrats ask, "How can John James stand up for Michigan when he can't even stand up for himself?"

Sending thoughts and prayers to everyone employed or represented or by Brad Finstad this morning.

Former Rep. Mo Brooks four years ago was the Trump-backed frontrunner for a seat in the U.S. Senate. Today he's announcing a last-second bid for the state House after spending months deliberating whether to run for anything.

Major news from New York: A state judge just overturned part of the congressional map, potentially giving Democrats a chance to redraw it for 2026. If this ruling is upheld, the Staten Island-based 11th District would flip from safely Republican to Democratic-leaning at the very least

Have Gmail’s spam filters been hyper-aggressive lately for anyone else? Just today, two emails I sent to work colleagues *as replies* got sent to their spam.

A top ICE official just stepped down to challenge Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in an Ohio House seat that just got tougher for Kaptur to hold. The congresswoman, though, isn't letting the new map deter her from running again.

Ventura had cameo in 1997 "Batman & Robin" as guard who gets killed during escape of Mr. Freeze (Arnold Schwarzenegger). Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota the next year. In 2002 the late website The Agony Booth joked that death of Ventura's character was it for governors in the movie ...

Maryland is considering redrawing its congressional map in response to other states' remaps & asked for proposals, so I submitted these 3 maps. Interactive maps with data: A: davesredistricting.org/join/1b9246f... B: davesredistricting.org/join/aad85b9... C: davesredistricting.org/join/0e76b33...

Turns out Democrats weren't done making gains from 2025! Politico brings us this update from Orange County, NY www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Wait, how many towns have truck-eating bridges?!

Just once a year, in our final newsletter, we ask our readers to donate to support our work. And it's truly been a dramatic year, one that began in despair for supporters of democracy but has since seen nothing but victories at the ballot box. If our coverage has been helpful, we hope you'll donate.

Nice write up in @the-downballot.com today about yesterday's Kentucky SD-37 where Gary Clemons "ran 42 points ahead of the presidential results" @davidnir.com and @jeffsinger.bsky.social used "massive" to describe Gary's overperformance! www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

We only just learned of the loss of a singular figure in the world of elections, Joshua Spivak of the @recallelections.bsky.social blog. Absolutely no one in America knew more about recall elections, but more than that, Spivak was a true mensch and a lovely human being. May his memory be a blessing.

Georgia Democrats won a big victory in a red legislative seat. Readers of The Downballot weren't caught off guard tonight!

BREAKING: Democrats have flipped a conservative state House seat in Georgia in yet another upset. It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero. Read our complete writeup here -->

I am extremely thankful James Talarico immediately spoke up with this response to the bizarre, too online overreaction to Jasmine Crockett declaring for the US Senate seat in Texas. #TXSen Frankly however you feel about her, every Dem should be glad Crockett is running. A quick thread on why: (1/7)

The GOP is deeply unsettled by the big Dem showing in #TN07. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @dwbeard.bsky.social explain why they're right to be. We also geek out w/Lou Jacobson about the Almanac of American Politics, a seminal resource for all political nerds. Listen here!

I also remember in April 2017 when the GOP only held onto Kansas' 4th District 52-46 months after Trump carried it 60-33. While some recognized this as early bad news for the GOP, lost of talk about how Democrats could just win "moral victories" instead of real victories. Not the case here!

It's remarkable to see the entire political landscape treat a 9-point margin in a special election as exactly what it is: a serious warning sign for the GOP. This is a sea change. After Jon Ossoff lost #GA06, the media, the GOP, and even many Dems sniffily dismissed it. But it was a harbinger.

Michael Whatley: "The reason I’m running for this race is because President Trump asked me to run in this race." Bet this quote will come up a few times in the next 11 months in the North Carolina Senate contest.