In this chart, the distribution of the new plan's Biden margins is compared to the current plan. The proposed map counts on Dems doing slightly worse than Biden to fully succeed. However, if I'm an R incumbent, I'm casting a *very* nervous eye at recent results in the FL-01 and FL-06 specials...

I've been waiting for a map like this and would love to see it for more places: These are EV charging price by US state translated into gasoline prices so you get a like for like comparison of driving costs. Source: buff.ly/jxJqu6R

Holy cow, then the Trump Media stock price is down an insane 770% from its peak!!!

on the cutting room floor of our Virginia precincts analysis: a *map* of the referendum results & 2024 prez results along proposed district lines we contextualize these results in the article 🎁 link: nyti.ms/4sLUktJ

This could be super useful for journalists and local civics nerds — in one place, neighborhood-level shapefiles and 2020 demographic data for 206 US cities that have "city-defined neighborhoods" paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41... data: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

Excellent map, which as always refutes the ridiculous notion that empty land votes (in fact, people vote, and the most densely populated parts of Virginia voted heavily YES) bluevirginia.us/2026/04/poli...

Three cabinet secretaries gone, all women. It's too on the nose to even point out but I'll be updating this chart, today! meredithconroy.substack.com/p/the-number...

NEW | Record exports of solar, batteries and EVs last month 📈 China’s exports for the ‘new three’ industries reached a record high of $21.9bn in March 2026, up 70% year-on-year, in the wake of the US-Israel war with Iran and changing export rebates for solar and batteries.

Anyway, have a go at @fransham.bsky.social's fantastic build-a-voter interactive www.economist.com/interactive/...

<screams in Speer>

One ultimatum after another. After another. After another. After another. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Something interesting is happening here. This is *just Republicans* souring on the economy. civiqs.com/results/econ...

While at 538, we charted Cabinet roles held by men/women, since Carter. I updated that for my substack, Gender Gap! And wrote about the precarity of GOP women in politics, even (maybe especially?) for the women who meet their party's terms. meredithconroy.substack.com/p/the-number...

1-year Anniversary of Liberation Day: -US foreign direct investment is lower -US factories employ 89,000 fewer people -US goods trade deficit is UP 2% -Treasury collected billions but must return it -Inflation elevated. -Every court + SCOTUS found them unconstitutional www.npr.org/2026/04/02/n...

From its angled view, GOES-18 also captured the historic launch of Artemis II.

Every year, humpback whales make long treks btwn where they breed & where they feed. Maternally-inherited mtDNA from >1,800 humpback whales suggest that animals annually return to where they were born to breed themselves & where they fed w/their moms early in life #2026MMM doi.org/10.3354/meps10508

Cool map from #$JPM showing dated oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz will stop arriving. Keep in mind that (excluding Saudi flows through Yanbu and Iranian flows) the gap in flows then continues forward by 4 weeks and counting + some further time to stabilize tanker networks.

Social movement scholar here to comment on No King again. a 🧵: These protests are important b/c: 1.) as sustained image events, protests offer evidence of continued disapproval of the direction the country is going and disavowal of the country's leadership.

1/14

The astonishing rate of March snowmelt in Colorado River Basin continues, and is now well into record-low territory (even, it appears, relative to pre-SNOTEL era). And the extreme regional heatwave is only slowly fading, with unprecedented March melt continuing in meantime.

Only 23% of government workers believe they “can report a suspected violation of a law, rule, or regulation without experiencing retaliation.” That's way down form the share the prior year (72%) who said they could report suspected illegal activity without fear www.thebulwark.com/p/two-more-g...

This is just an incredible visual model of what being on X is like

How do the 2026 AI investments compare with the cost for aiding Ukraine, ending world hunger, or even a country’s GDP? This week, our head of communications Lisa sets billions of USD in perspective: www.datawrapper.de/blog/ai-inve...

This bill adds significant obstacles to voting for those who change their family name upon marrying. Pew shows 90% of conservative R women changed their family name, while only 66% of liberal D women did so. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

These were mayoral 🇫🇷 elections, so any national extrapolation is of course hazardous. But if you go by voting in towns with > 100,000 population, one cautious conclusion from last night’s voting is this : the broad non-populist centre can hold

This is a *very* sizable change. We've entered the new numbers on our Big Board, and the GOP overperformance is now just 4%, and likely to droop further once provisionals are added. Also, it's a tiny Dem *overperformance* compared to Biden in 2024.

Even in a world of extremes, some events still stand out to me. This is one. All-time monthly records are being shattered. The size of this ridge across the western U.S. is truly striking for March, and we see a very clear climate change connection. Explore: csi.climatecentral.org/climate-shif...

Charting the gas price spike by state and by historical comparison. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/u...

What stands out perhaps most here is how much oil demand electric two- and three-wheelers have avoided. Most talk in developed countries is about passenger cars, but the transition to electric among these smaller vehicles in developing countries has been huge. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

One Battle After Another is a rare #Oscars Best Picture winner with a budget over $100 million (even after adjusting for inflation)

A fair coin "knows" π. Stop flipping when heads first outnumber tails. The expected fraction of heads is π/4. Average many trials → estimate π. Result by J. Propp, animated for #PiDay. Made with #Python #NumPy #Matplotlib and @marimo.io #Mathematics #MathArt #CreativeCoding

We're delighted to see people pay so much attention to special elections and legislative elections these days! Tracking these races is one of our favorite things to do. It's also a lot of work! We'd be really grateful if folks citing that figure of 28 R→D flips would link back to our tracker:

Unpopular war, unpopular president. Trump may get an anti-bump from starting a war. The Gulf War and its sequel both resulted in massive approval bumps. Smaller invasions also resulted in a bump. For Afghanistan, Bush's approval was already sky-high and essentially had nowhere left to go.

If we could just raise sea levels by 150 meters we get a backup Strait of Hormuz

Primary elections were held yesterday in Mississippi. Mississippi will remain the only state that has NEVER sent a woman to the U.S. House. 👀

To add to the point @gbenga-ajilore.bsky.social of @centeronbudget.bsky.social is making. My WP shows that you can test the "first fired" result, by putting Black unemployment into a @claudia-sahm.bsky.social like rule, and it shows exactly that. WP: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... #EconSky

Few people asked for this and few people like it. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/u...

We have a Honey Badger market. It just doesn't care much. War, tariffs, oil prices, mad king... whatever.

With a sudden surge of open House sets on the GOP side, we're once again in record territory. Democrats have slowed the pace recently.

In September, a box of old film reels was donated to the Library's National Audio-Visual Conservation Center. One of them was a nearly 130-year-old, long-lost film by iconic French filmmaker George Méliès. It had not been seen by anyone in likely more than a century. 🧵 blogs.loc.gov/loc/2026/02/...

1) Danish conservatives had been gaining in the polls and finally took the lead last fall. 2) Trump threatened war over Greenland. 3) The right’s polling tanked and the center-left bloc could win. 4) The center-left* prime minister calls an early election for March 24 apnews.com/article/denm...

What actually happened to horses after cars came around... web.archive.org/web/20211020...

It's time for a U.S. Geological Survey Photo Thread --- July 22, 1980 The first clearly visible eruption since May 18.

This district had the second-biggest swing to Trump between 2020 and 2024 of all the specials in the cycle so far. The biggest was in NJ SD-32, which is also heavily Latino, and where the Democrat in the special also outperformed *both* Harris and Biden.

There is no positive issue territory left for Trump, per our new Strength In Numbers/ @verasight.io poll. POTUS plans to focus on the economy in his SOTU 2nite. But shifting media focus back to a -30 issue is perhaps not the foolproof strategy he thinks it is. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ahead-of-s...

The trove of files released by the Department of Justice, illuminates Epstein’s deep interest and entrenchment in the scientific community. But the files also underscore how he used his power and money in ways that kept women out of places where they might succeed. https://bit.ly/4qWgPLz

If you liked this experiment, I published a full piece today in the same vein: a text that gets 100 years older with every section, from a modern blog post to a medieval chronicle. It's a single story spanning 1000 years of English. See how far you get. www.deadlanguagesociety.com/p/how-far-ba...

“We have all been here before We have all been here before…”

20 years later, and once again we have an unpopular Republican president sitting at an approval rating of about 39%. But now, opinions are sharply divided based on educational attainment. The changes are not, however, geographically uniform. 1/

Which Americans Are Most Likely to Adhere to Christian Nationalist Ideology? A majority of Republicans qualify as either Christian nationalism Adherents or Sympathizers. (@prri.org) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260218