We have a year’s worth of economic data since Liberation Day, when President Trump announced much higher tariffs on most imported goods and countries, and the data are definitive; the tariffs have done significant damage to the economy.

The economy is growing, but it is fragile growth. Looking through the vagaries of the quarterly data, real GDP is growing at a 2% pace. Growth, yes, but less than the economy’s potential growth rate, and not sufficient to support any meaningful job growth.

The economic damage from the war with Iran is mounting. Just the surge in gasoline prices has cost Americans an estimated additional $21.3 billion since the start of the war over 6 weeks ago.

Last week’s economic data show just how fragile the economy is, even before the fallout from the Iran war hits with full force. Critical to whether the economy can avoid a recession is whether the consumer holds tough, and that looks increasingly iffy.

Don’t take solace in the big March payroll employment gain. It comes after a big decline in February, when brutal winter weather and a labor strike at Kaiser Permanente weighed heavily on jobs.

With tenuous prospects for resolving the conflict with Iran, and financial markets under pressure, recession probabilities are high and rising. We don’t yet anticipate an outright downturn in our baseline (most likely) outlook for the economy, but we’ve been aggressively marking down our forecast.

Recession is once again a serious threat. Even before the recent disconcerting events in the Middle East, our machine learning based leading economic indicator model put the probability of a recession starting in the next 12 months at an uncomfortably high 49%.

The escalating conflict involving Iran is sending shockwaves through energy markets. Oil prices are swinging amid concerns about disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. Even temporary disruptions could have significant consequences. Join us for a live webinar: events.moodys.com/the-iran-oil...

Businesses appear to be nearing a Cortes moment with artificial intelligence. That’s my takeaway from fintech company Block’s move to slash its workforce by 40%. While Block didn’t explicitly pin the cuts on AI, it all but did.

If you felt like last week was an economic whirlwind, you weren’t wrong. Jared Bernstein and Jim Parrott joined #InsideEconomics to sort through the SCOTUS decision, GDP numbers, and what AI, housing, and jobs say about the economy. Econ nerdfest — and worth it. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...

Financial markets feel increasingly fraught to me, with the elements for a meaningful selloff coming into place. This threat is highest for stocks and corporate bonds, but even crypto, gold, and silver remain at risk despite recent pullbacks.

New episode: Wurm on Warsh. No, this isn’t a Bavarian dish. On the latest episode of the #InsideEconomics podcast, colleague Martin Wurm joins to take a close look at Kevin Warsh as a potential next Chair of the #FederalReserve.

Kevin Warsh is a reasonable choice for the next Federal Reserve chair. His obvious strength is his previous stint on the Fed during the Global Financial Crisis. He knows the institution and everyone in global central banking circles.

The uncomfortable financial stress on low- and middle-income Americans is evident in the December 2025 consumer delinquency rates.

The K-shaped economy is becoming steadily more K-shaped. That’s the message in our updated estimate of personal outlays by income group.

President Trump says he is directing Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac to purchase $200 bil of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to bring down mortgage rates and address the severe housing affordability problem. Fixed mortgage rates have, in fact, declined by 10-20 bps to just over 6% on the news.

After cogitating a bit on the December jobs data, I’m increasingly convinced that the job market is struggling, and the broader economy is fragile, in big part due to U.S. tariffs.

Despite the considerable drama, the economy’s performance in 2025 is set to come in close to what we had forecast for the year when we did our projections at the end of 2024. That is, the economy did okay in 2025, although it fell well short of its 2024 performance.

@markzandi.bsky.social joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the state of the economy, focusing on consumer sentiment, Fed Independence, and likely trends in inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth in early 2026. econofact.org/podcast/the-...

"The shape of the financial system has shifted from where it was in the Great Financial Crisis, from a bank-centric hub-and-spoke system with the banks in the middle and everyone else around the periphery to more of a web, with private credit more central in that web." - @markzandi.bsky.social

What have we learned from these first few months of talks? @scottlincicome.bsky.social of @cato.org, Ramesh Ponnuru, @natasharsarin.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @justinwolfers.bsky.social and @markzandi.bsky.social weigh in:

Mark Zandi: “The housing downturn to date has been mostly about the depressed existing home sales. New home sales, housing completions, and house prices have held up well—that’s about to change.” http://f-st.co/M6nFvD7

I sent off a yellow flare on the housing market in a post a couple of weeks ago, but I now think a red flare is more appropriate. Home sales, homebuilding, and even house prices are set to slump unless mortgage rates decline materially from their current near 7% soon. That, however, seems unlikely.

How do trade, spending cuts, and policy uncertainty affect growth? @markzandi.bsky.social of Moodys Analytics warns that while a recession isn't imminent, long-term U.S. growth could suffer. Listen here: econofact.org/podcast/thro...

Another sign of a softer job market is rising unemployment insurance claims. Continuining claims are up, and signaling a slump in hiring. Initial claims are also up as of late. Anything north of their current near 250k per week would suggest layoffs are rising, and the job market is stalling.

The more I cogitate on the May jobs report, released last Friday by the BLS, the more uncomfortable I get about the economy’s prospects. There are a bunch of reasons why (listen to this week’s Inside Economics podcast), but high on the list is the sharp drop-off in labor force growth.

The job market is steadily but surely throttling back. Monthly job gains are moderating, and most telling, the gains are being consistently revised lower, and not by a little bit. Indeed, after revision, monthly job gains appear to be closing in on 100k.

Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac’s fate is back under debate, 15 years after entering conservatorship. Their stock prices are up, but what’s next for the GSEs? Here’s a breakdown of the most likely scenarios over the next few years, their probabilities, and their impact on mortgage rates:

I’m perplexed by the narrative that while the so-called soft economic data are in the dumper, the hard economic data are just fine. Really? No argument regarding the soft data. Consumer, business, and investor sentiment is about as dark as it gets, but the hard data have also taken on a shadowy hue.

A high and rising number of American households are under mounting financial stress. That’s the message in the April delinquency rate data we calculate based on all the credit files in the country from the credit bureau Equifax.

After digging deep into the economic data released last week, from GDP to jobs, and all the releases in between, here’s why I’m even more concerned about the economy’s prospects:

The April jobs report shows the economy is not in recession, despite the Q1 decline in GDP. Employment increased 177,000 in the month, suggesting the job market remain a firewall between continued growth and a downturn.

OPINION TODAY featured podcast — Chuck Todd is joined by @markzandi.bsky.social, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, to discuss the damaging effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade war on the U.S. economy. opiniontoday.substack.com/i/162029400/...

The Trump administration’s policies are set to severely diminish the economy, not only for the next few months but for years. The administration’s trade war is undermining the global safe-haven status of the U.S., which has provided incalculable benefits, including our economy’s exceptionalism. 🧵

Another great discussion with @markzandi.bsky.social trying to explain what the Trump admin is trying to do with tariffs. It’s the most complete explanation I have heard though I disagree they are competent or honest actors in their plan. #tariffs #econsky podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...

The U.S.’s global safe haven status is severely damaged by the U.S. tariffs and resulting global trade war. Global investors rightly question whether the U.S. is money good – the global economy’s Aaa credit. Thus, the spike in the long-term Treasury yields and the weaker U.S. dollar in recent days.

In the latest episode of The Delegates Lounge podcast, we're joined by Moody's Chief Economist @markzandi.bsky.social. Three guesses which classic movie reminds him of the present moment. Listen apple.co/4ejt5jE or wherever you get your podcasts.

“The thing that worries me is that our economies are now quickly moving apart. They already have decoupled and they're disengaging. And it's becoming self-reinforcing.” @markzandi.bsky.social on the #Tariffs impact on US-China relations. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

It was encouraging to see the President reverse himself on the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs yesterday, but I wouldn’t take much solace in it as the global trade war continues to rage. I still put the odds of a recession this year at 60%.

Global businesses are now signaling recession. This is according to Moody’s weekly survey of businesses we’ve conducted for over 20 years. President Trump’s shocking hike in U.S. tariffs and China's tit-for-tat response crushed global business sentiment last week. 🧵

Are we headed to a slower economy and faster rising prices? @markzandi.bsky.social of Moody's Analytics discusses the impacts of the Administration's policies, and policy uncertainty, in this new @econofact.bsky.social Chats episode. econofact.org/podcast/look...

As President Trump's self-proclaimed "Liberation Day" approaches on April 2nd, bringing with it a wave of new tariffs, @thedelegateslounge.bsky.social chats with Moody's Chief Economist @markzandi.bsky.social. Hear more of our conversation on Apple Podcasts apple.co/4ejt5jE or wherever you listen.

I’m raising my odds that a recession will begin at some point this year to 40%, up from 15% at the start of the year. Last week’s economic data were disconcerting, including the slide in consumer confidence, punk consumer spending, and persistently high inflation.

Leading Indicator #2 -the FHA mortgage delinquency rate. This isn’t common on leading economic indicator lists but it may be a proverbial canary in the coal mine in the current context. FHA borrowers have low to moderate incomes, with a median income of 75k a year, and most are 1st time homebuyers.

Leading indicator #1 – Conference Board survey of consumer confidence.

It's hard to fathom, but we are back on recession watch. The economy was performing exceptionally well at the start of the year—it was the strongest economy on the planet. But here we are.

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi discusses President Trump’s baffling economic strategy, and explains why he sees the risk of recession rising by the day.

For a more in-depth discussion on the latest U.S. employment report, the potential impact of DOGE cuts and the on-again, off-again tariffs that have developed in recent weeks tune in to our latest Inside Economics podcast. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...

This week’s episode of One Thing Trump Did is out now on The Middle’s podcast feed! We dive into the potential economic impacts of President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Jeremy’s joined by @markzandi.bsky.social, Chief Economist for Moody’s Analytics. www.iheart.com/podcast/1119...

The risks of a U.S. recession starting in the coming year are uncomfortably high and rising. I would put them at 35%, up from 15% at the start of the year. For context, the typical recession probability is 15% - the U.S. economy historically suffers a recession every 6 or 7 years on average.