Joaquin Carbonell
@joaquinc.bsky.social
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Research | Data Science at the California Department of Social Services. All views my own.
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Joaquin Carbonell
Dominique Baker
5 days ago
"all fortunes are family fortunes, all power is family power, and all status is family status" That's a powerful line
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David Roberts
about 1 month ago
They were going to pass rules to phase out gas stoves, until they received 20,000 public comments against the regulations. Except, oops, it turns out the comments were generated by AI.
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Southern California air board rejected pollution rules after AI-generated flood of comments
The opposition appeared overwhelming: Tens of thousands of emails poured into Southern California's top air pollution authority as its board weighed a June proposal to phase out gas-powered appliances...
https://phys.org/news/2026-02-southern-california-air-board-pollution.html?_bhlid=ca27d0c39e55dadac625b0385f0cc7eea960f238
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Some deep truths about the Cuban exile community. Beautiful essay.
www.equator.org/articles/the...
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The Thing We Call Exile • EQUATOR
A Cuban writer contemplates his new life in America, as Washington puts the island under siege once again
https://www.equator.org/articles/the-thing-we-call-exile
about 1 month ago
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Nate Jensen
about 1 month ago
Our paper is out in PNAS.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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Why Biden-era clean energy investment policies had limited political returns | PNAS
The Biden Administration enacted the largest federal policy framework to incentivize clean energy and decarbonization in U.S. history. We examine w...
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2526802123
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Review of Economics and Statistics (REStat)
about 1 month ago
Tests for p-hacking can have low power; non-rejections do not indicate an absence of p-hacking. Just Accepted new paper by Graham Elliott, Nikolay Kudrin @NKudrin and Kaspar Wüthrich.
zurl.co/EggwF
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The Power of Tests for Detecting p-Hacking
Abstract. A flourishing empirical literature investigates the prevalence of p-hacking based on the distribution of p-values across studies. Interpreting
https://zurl.co/EggwF
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Brian Goldstone
about 1 month ago
Reading this story—about how the Pentagon has been given so much extra money it's struggling to spend it all—while thinking about the formerly homeless tenants I've spoken with in recent weeks whose housing vouchers are being discontinued for "lack of funds."
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Trump aides struggle with how to spend $500 billion more on military
Some senior officials resisted the decision to approve the major military spending increase, people familiar with the matter say.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/02/21/trump-hegseth-budget-military/
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Fired but Fighting (National Public Health Coalition)
about 1 month ago
This a great piece of investigative journalism.
@rollingstone.com
This should be required reading for scientists and ethicists. Ethics matter, especially in science.
www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
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New Documents Reveal a Controversial Vaccine Study's Unusual Path to CDC Approval
A new investigation has found irregularities in the ethics review of a grant to study effects of a birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine in Guinea-Bissau.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/new-documents-vaccine-study-cdc-approval-1235518406/
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Matthew A Kraft
about 1 month ago
🚨Thrilled to share our new
@nber.org
WP. Research and policy often assume teacher effectiveness is essentially fixed. We revisit this question by studying what happens when high-performing teachers are incentivized to transfer to struggling schools. 🧵
nber.org/papers/w34845
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Eileen Ridge
2 months ago
Holy moly this chart: Cumulative US measles cases
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The research and data shop here at CDSS is
#hiring
for TWO data engineer positions that will be essential to the modernization of our data infrastructure. Help us spread the word! 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐲: $91,680 per year 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐲: Feb 6 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞:
calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/...
2 months ago
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CA reduced EBT theft by 83% since Jan 2024:
www.kcra.com/article/cali...
A few reflections on this work 🧵below Disclaimer: This is my view as a private citizen though I work at CDSS and have been involved in the dept's response to theft for the last 3.5 yrs 1/10
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California sees major drop in EBT fraud and theft, state leaders say
According to state data shared exclusively with KCRA 3 on Thursday, there has been an 83% decline in theft associated with Electronic Benefits Transfer.
https://www.kcra.com/article/california-drop-in-ebt-fraud-theft/70014585
3 months ago
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Ned Resnikoff
4 months ago
Listen, I know the housing shortage is killing a great American city, but that really is one of our most historically significant Safeways
www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/s...
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Marina’s reaction to Safeway tower plans: ‘Along comes this behemoth right on the waterfront’
Plans to put a 25-story apartment complex on San Francisco’s Marina district sparked concerts about a future where the city’s waterfront is ringed by tall housing structures.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/safeway-tower-housing-marina-21224148.php
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Joshua Goodman
4 months ago
I am increasingly convinced the optimal number of laptops per child is 0 (or at least much lower than 1). From the latest Journal of Public Economics issue:
doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
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Scott McGrath
4 months ago
AI dialogues shifted political support by 2 to 3 points in trials, eclipsing standard ads. Roughly one-third of this effect persisted for a month. However, models optimized for persuasion proved more factually error-prone.
#MLSky
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AI chatbots can persuade voters to change their minds
Conversations with AI can sway people’s political views. Concerningly, a chatbot’s facts are not always accurate, especially when it supports right-wing positions.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03733-x
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jon ben-menachem
4 months ago
striking that so many cities are seeing parallel homicide declines this year. i have no good explanation
jasher.substack.com/p/the-fbi-wi...
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Greg Sasso
4 months ago
May write more about this at length in the future: good causal inference training leads to better descriptive research
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Pietro Biroli
11 months ago
🧵New paper out: “Beyond Time: Unveiling the Invisible Burden of Mental Load” with Barigozzi, Monfardini, Montinari,
@elenapisanelli.bsky.social
@svevav.bsky.social
🔗
arxiv.org/abs/2505.11426
/1
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Beyond Time: Unveiling the Invisible Burden of Mental Load
This paper introduces a novel, scalable methodology to measure individual perceptions of gaps in mental load -- the cognitive and emotional burden associated with organizing household and childcare ta...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.11426
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Policy research folks take note - CPL's research is very influential in California state policy and this high-impact role will help expand that influence. Consider applying and share with your networks!
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6 months ago
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One week until this job posting closes. Do dope research, serve the great state of California. Join us.
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7 months ago
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7 months ago
This is a great research team for those seeking to make impact within government.
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Kelsey Pukelis
8 months ago
An opportunity to join our fantastic research team at the California Department of Social Services!
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Our research shop at the CA Dept of Social Services is
#hiring
for a Principal Researcher
calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/...
Posting closes 9/15. Please help us spread the word! This position will lead high impact research projects and shape/set standards for our research portfolio.
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Data Engineer
Looking to make a difference? Join our strong and mighty workforce. We offer benefits and growth opportunities and impact the lives of millions of Californians.
https://calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/Jobs/JobPosting.aspx?JobControlId=488653
8 months ago
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Chapin Hall
8 months ago
Always happy to uplift job opportunities that can have a positive impact for children and families! Check out the opportunity at the top of this thread👇 Thank you for the shout out,
@joaquinc.bsky.social
! We always appreciate working with the California Department of Social Services team.
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Our research shop at the CA Dept of Social Services is
#hiring
for a Principal Data Enigneer
calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/...
Posting closes 9/8. Please help us spread the word! This position will build data pipelines for our in-house research and analytics.
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Data Engineer
Looking to make a difference? Join our strong and mighty workforce. We offer benefits and growth opportunities and impact the lives of millions of Californians.
https://calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/Jobs/JobPosting.aspx?JobControlId=488653
8 months ago
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Molly Jong-Fast
about 1 year ago
Richest guy in the world telling us we can’t afford to have our government fund cancer research.
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Amy Westervelt
about 1 year ago
Feels like a good time to revisit this little bit of American history, or learn it if you didn’t already know it:
newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/how...
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How Woodrow Wilson’s racist policies eroded the Black civil service - Haas News | Berkeley Haas
Before the election of President Woodrow Wilson, Black Americans worked at all levels of the federal government. But when Wilson assumed office in 1913, he mandated that the federal workforce be segre...
https://newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/how-woodrow-wilsons-racist-segregation-order-eroded-the-black-civil-service/
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Yonah Freemark
about 1 year ago
NYC>Chicago is legitimately a great corridor for high-speed rail, if states of NY, PA, OH, IN & IL could unite for it. You could hit: —NYC—20m —Philly—6m —Harrisburg—600k —Pittsburgh—2.4m —Youngstown—400k —Cleveland—2.2m —Toledo—600k —Ft Wayne—500k —South Bend—300k —Chicago—9m On a ~straight route
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Helen Branswell 🇨🇦
about 1 year ago
Doing the unthinkable: The deep cuts to the
#CDC's
workforce today are expected to decimate the Epidemic Intelligence Service, a program that has trained public health rapid responders for decades. Envy of the world. Poof!
www.statnews.com/2025/02/14/t...
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CDC cuts expected to devastate Epidemic Intelligence Service, a ‘crown jewel’ of public health
Members of the CDC's Epidemic Intelligence Service were warned Friday that many of them were about to be fired
https://www.statnews.com/2025/02/14/trump-cdc-cuts-include-epidemic-intelligence-service-outbreak-investigators/
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Secretary of Defense Rock
about 1 year ago
Bureaucracy, famously not important in war
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James Medlock
about 1 year ago
I'd rather continue to fund the banking police (who have returned billions to consumers) rather than giving everyone a check for $2.15
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Dominique Baker
about 1 year ago
Here's why your education friends had a real rough one today. It's... it's the entire education data collection apparatus of the United States.
www.edweek.org/policy-polit...
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Amy Siskind
about 1 year ago
Posted around NYC, Chicago, DC and other cities. Be creative. Do something!
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Robert Maguire
about 1 year ago
Everyone should be pointing out what is happening at CFPB. There is zero argument to be made here that this is being done to provide taxpayer value. The agency's budget is minuscule, averaging like $600 million/year, yet it has obtained $20 billion in payments from corporations to Americans
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Exclusive | Russell Vought Taking Over as New Acting Head of CFPB
Trump fired the CFPB’s Biden-era leader earlier this week, putting in place Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who froze the agency’s work.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/russell-vought-taking-over-as-new-acting-head-of-cfpb-9650d338
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Jon Mellon
about 1 year ago
New WP with
@vincentab.bsky.social
@ryancbriggs.net
. We use LLMs and RAs to track publication trends in polisci. Here’s how subfields have changed in AJPS and JOP
osf.io/v7fe8
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Max Kennerly
about 1 year ago
Plainly unlawful and unconstitutional. No one can issue such an order; the President and his officers cannot simply ignore an entity created and funded by Congress.
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Omar Wasow
about 1 year ago
I’ve been studying civil rights protests for 20 years. With new mobilization against Trump’s agenda, I’m sharing a thread summarizing my research on how nonviolent & violent actions by 1960s activists and police influenced media, elites, public opinion & voters. 1/
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Alissa Walker
about 1 year ago
This also isn't the first "Marshall Plan" that Newsom has announced. In 2019 he said he would build 3.5 million new homes in California by 2025. He later downgraded his goal to 2.5 million homes. As of December 2024, the state has only permitted 650,000 housing units during his governorship
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Newsom set a major housing goal for 2025. Here's how far short the state has fallen
Despite all of Gavin Newsom's efforts, home permitting and construction have not been turbocharged.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/gavin-newsom-housing-record-19971316.php?ref=torched.la
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Don Moynihan
about 1 year ago
Every day that large media outlets fail to put words like “illegal” and “unconstitutional” into their headlines is a day they are choosing to normalize a national crisis
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Brenden Beck
about 1 year ago
Should cities spend $$$ on police or social services if reducing crime is the goal? I summarize the research on this question in this now-un-paywalled article.
www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
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Brian Schatz
about 1 year ago
The story of this first week is corruption. Billionaires seated on the inaugural stage in front of the cabinet, crypto pump and dump, and the illegal firing of IGs. The media is acting like this is too chaotic and bewildering to interpret, but they are just afraid of sounding shrill. It’s corrupt.
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C. Kirabo Jackson
about 1 year ago
This is highly relevant today. While we can debate the merits of specific 'DEI' policies—some may indeed be misguided—it’s undeniable that racial discrimination persists in this country. The evidence is clear for those willing to engage with it!
bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/cea/written-...
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Racial Discrimination in Contemporary America | CEA | The White House
Equal opportunity is the bedrock of American democracy, and our country’s diversity is one of our greatest strengths. However, in recognition of the fact that many Americans still face systemic barrie...
https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/07/03/racial-discrimination-in-contemporary-america/
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Gretchen Goldman, PhD
about 1 year ago
The part I can't get over is that these are all people. People worried about their families' livelihood. People who chose federal service, often over jobs with more credit or more compensation. People who dared to try to make the government work better for everyone.
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/25/u...
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Trump’s Moves to Upend Federal Bureaucracy Touch Off Fear and Confusion
Agencies are gripped with uncertainty about how to implement the blizzard of new policies as workers frantically try to assess the impact on their lives.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/25/us/politics/trump-federal-workers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0uBFYV9XMvw5HHgkM6lxlAgpKsJFmplemUU0ZyjdPos_C68xgyeh7Vdjs_aem_P5Qx4lQOVRisDFHnybsaWQ
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Michael Clemens
about 1 year ago
Some US citizens now assert the right to decide that other US citizens are not legitimate. This is not an action against unauthorized immigrants, but literally against Americans.
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Laurent Bilke
about 1 year ago
"Quantifying the Beige Book’s Soft Data": It works. Now, imagine how much better it could be with a properly trained language model instead of just counting positive and negative words! #LLM #econsky
www.stlouisfed.org/o...
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Quantifying the Beige Book’s ‘Soft’ Data
Some economists believe anecdotal findings in the Beige Book are inferior to hard economic data. This analysis suggests the report’s ‘soft’ content is actually quite firm.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/jan/quantifying-beige-books-soft-data
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Don Moynihan
about 1 year ago
Me, writing syllabus: Think I will have a class on gender, identity and administrative burdens on Jan 21. Me, preparing lecture: Well, this fucking sucks. What the fuck.
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
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Cristina Temenos
over 1 year ago
New in
#HarmReductionJournal
: Assessing stigma: Health and social worker regard towards working with people using illicit drugs in Athens, Greece
#OpenAccess
#PublicHealth
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
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Assessing stigma: Health and social worker regard towards working with people using illicit drugs in Athens, Greece - Harm Reduction Journal
Background After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and resulting economic austerity, the rise in illicit drug use engendered an increased need for people who use drugs (PWUD) to access medical care, co...
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12954-024-01091-x?utm_source=rct_congratemailt&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=oa_20240926&utm_content=10.1186/s12954-024-01091-x
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Sam Workman
about 1 year ago
Good piece from Keith Humphrey on the consequences (social and policy) of being laissez faire with open drug use on streets. PolicySky 🛟
#EMCA
www.brookings.edu/articles/the...
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The rise and fall of Pacific Northwest drug policy reform, 2020-2024
From 2020-2024, policy toward drugs, policing, and public disorder changed dramatically in North America’s Pacific Northwest region.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-rise-and-fall-of-pacific-northwest-drug-policy-reform-2020-2024/?b=1
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Don Moynihan
about 1 year ago
This paper is a great example of solid evidence of systemic discrimination: "Black taxpayers are audited at 2.9 to 4.7 times the rate of non-Black taxpayers." This reflects a series of choices built into the IRS audit algorithm: focus on the EITC, and overclaiming of credits.
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David Rand
about 1 year ago
🚨In Nature🚨 Meta is dropping fact-checking to avoid anti-conservative bias- but is there actually evidence of bias? We this test empirically & find that conservatives * ARE suspended more * BUT share more misinfo So suspension isn't necessarily evidence of bias
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Differences in misinformation sharing can lead to politically asymmetric sanctions - Nature
We find that conservatives tend to share more low-quality news through social media than liberals, and so even if technology companies enact politically neutral anti-misinformation policies, political...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07942-8
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Lucy
over 1 year ago
"just immigrate legally bro"
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