So, I spent many many years working on my book, and it coincidentally comes out the same week as the end of the New START Treaty.  In print from Cambridge University Press next week, and ebook is online now. www.cambridge.org/vaynman or on Amazon: a.co/d/0brNOTKq

1/7 It's book publication day! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is out now from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series. Contents and discount codes below. @managingtheatom.bsky.social mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...

The new book... exists!!! Got my author copies in the mail today! Looks quite readable! Spelled my name right on the cover, even!!! harpercollins.com/products/the-most-awful-responsibility-alex-wellerstein

1/4 Policymakers often do listen to publics when formulating preferences on nuclear weapon use. Our #OpenAccess article provides first-of-kind evidence about when publics enable, constrain, or are less influential. @ejisbisa.bsky.social @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org Link: doi.org/10.1017/eis....

The @statedeptus.bsky.social 2021 "compliance report" is the most detailed unclassified statement on Russian, Chinese nuclear testing. DIA said something similar in 2019. Russia is directly accused of low-yield testing, while there are only concerns about Chinese transparency.

1. Crises, acquisitions, and policy all suggest that conventional weapons are taking on a larger role deterring nuclear use. My new article in @intsecurity.bsky.social examines why US officials would consider conventional options when they have nuclear options available and how they might use them.

Come to Bologna in May 2026 for Workshop on *Obstructionism in International Organizations* @johnshopkinssais.bsky.social Co-organized w/ @borzyskowski.bsky.social @ox.ac.uk Submit by Dec 15👇 docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... Please spread the word 🙏

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today! Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...

1/7 How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

1/8 Later this year from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series-- Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail. This is a sobering edited volume on how efforts to reduce nuclear weapons dangers may sometimes wind up exacerbating them.

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

📅 Register for the WMD Risk Reduction Science and Policy Forum on June 23–24, 2025, at the Hopkins Bloomberg Center in Washington, DC. This two-day forum, hosted by @jhu.edu, will bring together science and policy experts. Learn more: bit.ly/4lGgPOy

Trump's offer is a dollar-store-JCPOA. Thread.

New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center @stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...

New DIA graphic on "current and future missile threats" that Golden Dome might seek to address. (Sure looks like we might care about having a good relationship with Canada.)

I’m pleased to have had an opportunity to contribute to this edited volume ably pulled together by Zachary Davis assessing the legacy of track-1.5 and track-2 initiatives for the US-India, US-Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relationships. cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/f...

🚨 We're hiring! Join @theeln.bsky.social as a Senior Policy Fellow on Russia-West relations. Lead research, shape policy, and engage with ELN network members, policymakers, and experts. 🗓️ Deadline: 17 April 2025 🔗 Apply now: europeanleadershipnetwork.org/job/senior-p...

New article in Journal of Strategic Studies on grand strategy and nuclear weapons: makes the case that grand strategic change is probably necessary for any major shift in how states think about the political utility of their nuclear weapons www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... #NukeSky

Job alert! The Nunn School at Georgia Tech is hiring an assistant prof in intelligence studies and intl security! In addition to folks already on the academic track, we also welcome applicants who have a PhD and are leaving the Intelligece Community for *some reason* looking for a new career.

Off the charts level of institutional vandalism this past week. Kennan Institute long gathered superb Russian military expertise at a time when the subfield was not terribly fashionable. DOGE & co actively destroying DoD intellectual capacity in their mindless rampage through the bureaucracy.

Zombies, international institutions edition. Julia Gray’s article at Good Authority is worth a read.

A small drop in an ocean of suck, but for the past few weeks friends have let me know that my book (Divided Armies), along w/ related articles + briefings, was removed from DoD reading lists & curricula for being "too woke" Now JFQ has literally "unpublished" its review & any mention of the book ⬇️

Awesome to visit the Pile-1 nuclear memorial after presenting new research on how tech shapes arming strategies at Chicago’s Workshop on International Politics with @janevaynman.bsky.social. Special thanks to @profpaulpoast.bsky.social for the post-dinner tour!

☢️ I've collected 800+ resources for those working on WMD issues in my "LearnWMD Spreadsheet" learnwmd.wixsite.com/learnwmd/the... Recently, I've gone through and updated all links & information. I've also broken out the OSINT resources into their own tab. Be sure to check it out!

Elon Musk recently posted on his site that another lawyer and I are “undermining civilization.” He goes on to ask if we suffered childhood trauma and concludes by suggesting we are suffering from “generational trauma.” This is my response. www.democracydocket.com/opinion/my-o...

The DOGE firings have nothing to do with “efficiency” or “cutting waste.” They’re a direct push to weaken federal agencies perceived as liberal. This was evident from the start, and now the data confirms it: targeted agencies overwhelmingly those seen as more left-leaning. 🧵⬇️

Big, growing crowd just west of the U.S. Capitol protesting Trump, Musk and DOGE on President’s Day. “Hey Congress, grow a spine,” they shout, gathering for a rally around the reflecting pool.

obviously this is terrible for democracy and the rule of law in America but I'm also offended on behalf of the prisoner's dilemma

It would be really nice of them to tell us what the heck the US position actually is and why we need to threaten military action to force Putin to agree to something that presumably gives him everything he wants. Or maybe it's a strategy: Vance is a bad cop, Trump is a corrupt, drunk Russian cop.

Several friends at NNSA - the organization that manages the US nuclear stockpile - lost their jobs today. All probationary employees were fired.

This is just a fantastic piece of analysis - pulls together an enormous amount of information into a crisp, clear argument.

If you've ever used the Polity data, read this from Monty Marshall. tl;dr Polity is coding recent US events as an executive self-coup and an adverse regime change.

Exciting job opportunity, particularly for anyone who may be leaving government! The University of Denver - Josef Korbel School of International Studies announces its search for the Rice Family Professor of the Practice of International and Public Affairs.

Senator Andy Kim just said at JHU SAIS that he is shortly walking to a couple of blocks to US-AID and ask "what in God's name is happening." In his words, friends and allies are asking "If the White House is going to just dismiss part of the government, what are they going to do to us?" Applause.

🚨 Nuke/OSINT nerds—we have an incredible new opportunity for you! This summer, @scientistsorg.bsky.social is hosting a first-of-its-kind Open Source Nuclear Analysis Bootcamp, where you will learn to analyze: - Satellite imagery - Missiles - Fuel cycle - FOIA requests - Much more! Apply by 23 Feb!

1/ Musk seeking control over nerve systems of the federal government. As someone who spent a decade studying how centralized information systems are used for coercion this is a five alarm fire. We need to name it, identify risks, and seek to mitigate their impacts. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/u...

Call for post-docs: The new National Security Data and Policy Institute at the University of Virginia is looking for postdocs who combine a focus on data/network science and international security. Details: nationalsecurity.virginia.edu

New article: We examine the battlefield effects of forcing your own soldiers to fight ("fratricidal coercion") using 8 million Red Army soldier records, the Battle of Leningrad, and cross-nat analysis of 526 battles (1939-2011) Now Open Access in International Organization: doi.org/10.1017/S002...

With great effort, I convinced Vipin to help put our musings, arguments, and (his) whining toward productive ends. I'm happy to announce "Strategic Simplicity," a Substack where we will try to explain - conversationally - contemporary occurrences in international security...

On the latest episode of ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’, @janevaynman.bsky.social joins me to talk about the future of arms control at a time when few think arms control is viable or tractable. Listen here (for @warontherocks.bsky.social subscribers): warontherocks.com/episode/thin...

I was writing about deterrence today and remembered my favourite way of explaining it

I just talked about atomic bomb in WWII narratives in class last week and @wellerstein.bsky.social has a much better version of the comparison. Great table.

It’s out! global.oup.com/academic/pro...

If you are a post doc or faculty member please apply or reshare!

@tristanvolpe.bsky.social and I joined this session of the Horns of a Dilemma podcast with Texas National Security Review and War on the Rocks. We talk about how characteristics of dual use technologies affect international cooperation and competition. warontherocks.com/2025/01/dual...

It's spring syllabus time! Anyone teaching courses with something on international security institutions? eg alliances, arms control, regimes (sanctions, counterterrorism), or institutional design with security cases? I am designing a new class and looking for ideas on good readings.

Are you a PhD candidate studying political violence? Consider applying for the HFG Emerging Scholar award. $25k toward finishing up your diss. Deadline: 1 Feb. Details/Apply: www.hfg.org/emerging-sch...