Well worth the read. thebulletin.org/2026/04/how-...

I have been waitimg for this day for 25 years. Democratic leadership finally breaks with knee-jerk support for ever bigger military budgets. @reed.senate.gov says “I will not rubber-stamp a bloated, undisciplined budget.” www.theguardian.com/us-news/live...

A military operation would pose chemical, logistical, and tactical hurdles, experts say.

My latest analysis quoted in @theguardian.com: "On the weekend Le Monde published a satellite photograph from June last year of a large truck at a tunnel entrance at the Isfahan site carrying blue containers, which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists assessed most likely contained HEU."

Quoted in @aljazeera.com: "exploding the stockpile would chemically contaminate the immediate surroundings with toxic uranyl fluoride, creating a lasting environmental hazard," explained Diaz-Maurin.

Remember that if Trump hadn’t pulled out of the JCPOA, Iran’s HEU would not exist. And the Iranian offer Trump rejected included blending this material down. The risks to US military personnel if Trump orders this mission are entirely his fault.

I am extensively quoted in this @cnn.com story about whether the Trump administration understands what "enriched" uranium means. Thanks, Harmeet Kaur.

Trump's description of the Iran nuclear deal was a lie. It would NOT have meant Iranian nuclear weapons. Iran agreed to stringent enrichment limits, exporting 97% of its enriched uranium, and inspections going far beyond usual IAEA safeguards. But Trump pulled out -- and here we are.

Fact check: True @francoisdm.bsky.social: Once uranium has been enriched to 20%, a vast majority of the work required to enrich it to weapons-grade levels has been completed. It becomes exponentially easier to enrich 20% uranium to 60%; enriching from 60% to 90% is even easier.

I am extensively quoted in this @cnn.com story about whether the Trump administration understands what "enriched" uranium means. Thanks, Harmeet Kaur.

Commando likely to encounter a heavy problem if and when they enter Isfahan.

"If correct, this analysis would mean the enrichment vaults at Natanz and Fordow were probably empty before the June strikes, raising questions as to whether there is any enriched uranium “under the rubble” at facilities the Trump administration claimed it “obliterated” in June."

"In my assessment, the material seems most likely to have been highly enriched uranium (HEU) in the form of uranium hexafluoride (UF6),[2] and the quantity could be up to about 540 kilograms, more than previously reported by the IAEA and Iran."

Just to give you a sense of how much protection a cask like this has, here's a cutaway from that presentation @francoisdm.bsky.social found. #8 is the actual uranium (in fuel rod form this time). The rest is designed for protection/isolation.

Over the weekend, LeMonde and @francoisdm.bsky.social published a VERY interesting image of what appears to be some of Iran's highly enriched uranium enroute to a secure base in Isfahan last June. Amidst all this talk of seizing Iran's uranium, it's worth discussing in a little more detail...🧵

Satellite imagery shows that Iran could have transferred to Isfahan up to 540 kilograms—possibly all—of its highly-enriched uranium inventory before the June strikes last year.

Interesting twist that I did not consider in my analysis. Overpacks, indeed, make a special op even more difficult! Thanks, @cherylrofer.bsky.social

François Diaz-Maurin reports on an analysis by Le Monde of a satellite image of Isfahan that shows a truck carrying large containers that look like overpacks for nuclear materials. They may be overpacks for the enriched UF6. /2

tbt those backchannel comms

I highly recommend reading this!!!👇 Anyone who thinks that it would be simple for US Special Operations Forces (SOF) to grab and remove Iran's HEU (Highly Enriched Uranium) stocks is on the far side of crazy.

Here's why I believe Iran could have transferred to Isfahan up to 540 kilograms—possibly all—of its highly-enriched uranium inventory before the June strikes last year. 👇 #Iran #nuclearweapons #uranium #OSINT #nukesky

Le Monde informed the Bulletin about the image on March 19. I wrote a detailed visual and technical analysis supporting my assessment that the cargo may have been highly enriched uranium. (8/n) @thebulletin.org #Iran #nuclearweapons #uranium #OSINT #nukesky

But the timing of the image, the type of load, and other indirect evidence suggest that Iran may have placed a significant quantity of highly enriched uranium—possibly all of its inventory—at the facility ahead of the June 2025 strikes. (4/n) #Iran #nuclearweapons #uranium #nukesky @thebulletin.org

Here's why I believe Iran could have transferred to Isfahan up to 540 kilograms—possibly all—of its highly-enriched uranium inventory before the June strikes last year. 👇 #Iran #nuclearweapons #uranium #OSINT #nukesky

Nordic countries have generally welcomed France's proposed new concept of ‘forward deterrence.’ They appear willing to participate in joint nuclear exercises, potentially allowing French nuclear weapons on their territories. (1/4) #nuclearweapons #deterrence #nukesky

Nordic countries have generally welcomed France's proposed new concept of ‘forward deterrence.’ They appear willing to participate in joint nuclear exercises, potentially allowing French nuclear weapons on their territories. (1/4) #nuclearweapons #deterrence #nukesky

what would it take to neutralize Iran's highly enriched uranium? ground forces, at a minimum. thanks again to @francoisdm.bsky.social for the wonderful episode

And there it is. Making official what may of us said when Israel’s invasion began. Israeli officials want to annex southern Lebanon. They have always seen it as rightfully part of “Greater Israel” which extends from the river to the sea. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

International law expressly prohibits attacks on nuclear power plants. The US, for example, condemned the Israeli attack on Iraq’s reactor in 1981, and Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s in 2022 and onward. Read the following article, substitute Iran for Ukraine. thebulletin.org/2022/03/how-...

The pleasure was mine, @mjgault.bsky.social! More on this topic soon.

thank you to @francoisdm.bsky.social for walking me through what it would take to neutralize Iran's highly enriched uranium. It would be extremely hard, especially in a war zone.

– Reporter: "Why didn't you tell U.S. allies in Europe and Asia, like Japan, about the war before attacking Iran?" – Trump: “Because we wanted surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan, OK? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor, OK?” – Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi: [Blank stare]

Sounds pricey to wrap up a special operation that is already a "big win."

For better or worse, I dug into that paper that claimed to upend everything we know about the oceans taking up most of the heat from global warming. It's a perfect example of how AI makes it easy to produce science-y papers that amount to climate disinformation.

Fully concur. "Trump’s decision to attack Iran does not mean Tehran is certain to soon possess nuclear weapons. But it makes the push for the bomb seen in Tehran maybe as a far more rational choice for the regime now than it probably was before June 2025." thebulletin.org/2026/03/revi...

I also like when some experts (won't give out names) complain about the ammunition running out in Iran like it's a "long known" supply side issue. No, it's not. It's an unplanned, unnecessary, and unsustainable demand problem.

Which is still insanely high, though.

Nice move avoiding unnecessary controversy with naming a ship after a former general. Plus, it's a nod to Macron's nuclear deterrence speech, "Pour être libre, il faut être craint" (To be free, we must be feared).

What has President Trump achieved with the war in Iran? "The United States may have taken away some of Iran's nuclear capabilities—though crucially not its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and nascent bomb-making ability," writes Richard Nephew @richardmnephew.bsky.social.

Former director for Iran at the National Security Council, Richard Nephew (@richardmnephew.bsky.social), responds to @wsj.com. The Wall Street Journal thinks Iran can't make rational choices in its strategic calculus. But it has done so for nearly 25 years. #Iran #Trump #nuclearweapons #nukesky

The @wsj.com's latest Iran editorial suggested an inevitable Iranian march to acquire nuclear weapons that only force could prevent, but that's just not what the evidence suggests. @thebulletin.org published some of my thoughts. thebulletin.org/2026/03/revi...

Former director for Iran at the National Security Council, Richard Nephew (@richardmnephew.bsky.social), responds to @wsj.com. The Wall Street Journal thinks Iran can't make rational choices in its strategic calculus. But it has done so for nearly 25 years. #Iran #Trump #nuclearweapons #nukesky

“My kids’ kids, and probably their kids, are going to be paying for this,” said one official briefed on the U.S war on Iran.

"The trajectory of drone innovation coming from Iran and Russia shows that low-cost attack drones can be built from commercially available components that circulate with few effective export restrictions." "Drone innovation may save money; drone regulation can save lives."

Everything is in the "relatively."

To finish a train, one must at least have a wagon.

"I Once Thought Moon Bases Were Easy. I Am Now Confident I Can Nuke My Way to a Smoother Global Supply Chain" By Newt Gingrich

But if you still want to give it a try just for the fun of it—not minding the depth issue—you too can nuke yourself a canal. "Can't make a canal without breaking some cities. Great canal though." 👉 nuke-canal.vercel.app

Well, well, well. Looks like someone got creative this weekend. But... – The deepest crater obtained from a nuclear explosion is 100 meters deep. – It is the Sedan crater at the Nevada test site, and it took a 100-kiloton nuke to get it. Problem? It was an underground nuclear test.