Fascinating excerpts from a transcript of a National Security Council discussion about whether to seize Iran's Kharg Island and other options to gain leverage over Tehran. From 1979.

Went on Closer Look with Rose Scott today (Atlanta NPR) to discuss the Iran conflict with her and @jelenasubotic.bsky.social. www.wabe.org/not-americas...

A few thoughts on possible US-Iran conflict (1/11):

I spent the last decade studying territorial conquest. Never thought it would be relevant to Greenland. It should not be. But here are a few observations that are shaping my thinking about the current crisis.

very pleased to publish @alanallport.bsky.social on 1940. foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/18/f...

🚨 JUST IN: Scott Sagan and Shreya Lad offer a nuclear posture review, not a movie review, of Kathryn Bigelow’s 'A House of Dynamite,' and discuss in detail the realism or lack thereof of specific scenarios and plot lines in the film. #nuclearweapons #nukesky

Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen? My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world! 📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560

Signs mounting that U.S. plans to bomb Venezuela, ostensibly with the goal of toppling the regime. Unfortunately the track record of this kind of campaign is uniformly poor. A short thread. 1/8 www.wsj.com/world/americ...

Check out this new Foreign Policy Analysis article and dataset from one of my PhD students academic.oup.com/fpa/article-...

For context on Israel-Iran, here's a list of cases where countries considered or used military force to stop nuclear proliferation in peacetime. It's from my new @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org book Influence Without Arms. Chapter 6 is devoted to explaining why preventive strikes happen.

For the past two years, I’ve had the enormous privilege to serve on the @csis.org Bipartisan Commission on Hostage Taking and Wrongful Detention, led by the incomparable duo of Jon Alterman & Jason Rezaian (@rezaian.bsky.social). Today, our report is live! www.csis.org/analysis/com...

Grave situation in South Asia. The message to both sides should be: No Ground Advances. If that red line is not crossed, the chances are much better of avoiding a major war.

Refreshed my list of national security and strategy fellowships and seminars. Most are tailored for new and mid-career individuals, though there are a few sprinkled in for old folks like me, as well. I welcome any additions! @milwritersguild.bsky.social

Tempting offer

Enjoyed this conversation about territorial conquest and the Russia-Ukraine War

Still time to make sure every map in the White House is a Peters Projection with Asia in the middle. Prevent a few headaches.

New in @foreignaffairs.bsky.social I argue that making Russia fear how it will fare in a long war is the key to avoiding one. www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-...

In a new article, Kai Quek and I argue that states generally do not sink costs to signal resolve, and we identify the two signaling strategies they use instead: academic.oup.com/jogss/articl...

Amos Fox and I discuss faits accomplis and tripwires in this new episode of his Revolution in Military Affairs podcast shows.acast.com/650105b75a8d...

Use this line from Axelrod the next time a reviewer raises concerns about generalizability: “The framework is broad enough to encompass not only people but also nations and bacteria.”

There is an important lesson about deterrence failure and coercive diplomacy here. After being attacked, options are NOT limited to retaliating or looking weak by declining to escalate. Instead... www.reuters.com/world/middle...

It's amazing how much more attention IR developments get when they come with a catchy name: AUKUS, the Quad, BRICS, hypersonics...

I assigned my undergrads to find and evaluate Trump quotes about nuclear weapons. I have never had more fun grading an assignment. Highly recommend it!

Prediction fails

Topics we can leave out when discussing the war in Israel and Gaza: 1. Who is the US President 2. Whether the House has a speaker 3. Russia 4. China 5. Multipolarity Some conflicts *aren't* about the major powers.

Branislav Slantchev and I wrote an essay for The Economist on the war in Ukraine. Gated, but here's the link: urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...

It was truly a great time.