What time do the markets close? I don’t want to miss the war.

Let’s also remember there is now an important difference between a manufacturing revival and a manufacturing payroll revival. In the US, the former is possible, the latter is not.

This example may be superficial, IDK. But it’s an important reminder than we should aggressively tax capital to fund foundational social services

Agree. Forcing narrow deflation selectively through price controls will almost always create bad externalities Abundance is best achieved by: 1. Allowing productivity-driven deflation; let competition cook lower prices 2. Fiscal transfers from rich to poor (tax capital aggressively + progressively)

BREAKING: A new video shows DHS lied, again, about an ICE shooting. Yesterday, ICE reportedly told police that a man “weaponized” his vehicle by “ramming” into an ICE sedan, forcing an agent to fire his gun during an operation in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Except… that’s not what the video shows.

I like this move by DSA, but want to see us focus more on bringing up young talent out of college

US workers are starting to notice that what employers present as a "reward" for their dedication and productivity, is actually the bare minimum to keep them in place and subdued. Salt in the wound - 1000's of articles and tv hits telling them they're just inefficient with their new 'extra' money.

A common vibecession argument / assumption is that inflation is necessary and normatively benign as long as real wages are growing I don’t think that’s right, empirically or experientially. The Phillips Curve is weak. And workers want their wages to hold buying power even if they get a raise

"deflation is bad because people won't spend money when they can wait for prices to go down" see that's wrong. I'm hungry right now and if I don't eat I'll starve.

No deal feels like the natural equilibrium at this point

Encouraging to see signs of AI market rationalization

You can see the IT services deflation in the chat Beau quoted with his post, it's a solid analogue to the IT goods deflation of the 1990s cycle IMO.

I haven't been this impressed with a candidate in a l-o-n-g time. If @jamestalarico.bsky.social is the future of the Democratic Party, we are in VERY good shape.

Late cycle product development

🚨 HUGE ongoing surge of ICE arrests, with ICE directing 80% of all officers to go out into the field and round people up, aiming to hit 2,000 arrests a day; which would be more than during the Minneapolis surge. This may be why the nun in Texas got briefly picked up. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/u...

New Post from me at The Argument: is the gender wage gap because of some hardwired “preferences”, or is something else going on? www.theargumentmag.com/p/women-aren...

OMG

One thing that Terminator got wrong is the need for the AI pilots to have a perfect flight record

This is 100% correct. And a good reason why we must stop running trade policy like, “We should make toasters in the US so put tariffs on Chinese toasters!” Let the markets decide who makes once once we neutralize foreign manipulation of capital accounts

Housing deflation is complicated, because it’s the only major asset class owned by the majority of Americans. Ideally we need to find a way to improve housing access (affordability) without hurting the value of entry-level homes owned by the middle class. Of course this is a contradiction

2/9 “all macroeconomic dynamics, insofar as they involve any element of structural, “qualitative” change, are by definition, sectoral, industrial, or even corporate stories.”

It‘s just insane to me that a sitting president has made MORE THAN A BILLION DOLLARS peddling fucking fairy dust with no intrinsic value beyond his stature and power AS president, and it’s not treated as the biggest corruption scandal in American history.

Industrial equipment of the day: “fluid catalytic cracking units”

Kiros, a political newcomer, topped 15-term-incumbent Diana DeGette in the Democratic primary in Colorado's 1st Congressional District, a reliably blue House seat. n.pr/4eCVqV3

Ukraine is really doing a thing

We want companies to compete and for productivity gains to express as lower prices. The market is capable of driving more socially beneficial outcomes when it works.

People out here saying “socialism” and “capitalism” like we all know what that means

Trump is not trying to cause, he’s setting the groundwork to claim causation

Twenty years ago we thought this was where the Right was going and they said we were being paranoid and insecure

We can’t have a meritocracy if our professional education system excludes students who start with $0 in their pocket

Is housing the only market in America where normal people are routinely both buyers and sellers? Seems like that breaks peoples' brains a little.

Carpooling reduces GDP

Really negotiating from a position of strength here

WSJ: "U.S. margin debt rose 54% to a record $1.4 trillion in May from a year earlier." It's not as if we don't know how this works: it's self-reinforcing on the way up and even more self-reinforcing on the way down. www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

Wow in Moscow (assuming this is true).

Let’s talk about Atlanta

11/12 Meanwhile our trading system continues to reward policies that depress global growth by putting downward pressure on wage growth, or that force the world to encourage rapid increases in debt in order to counter the impact of lower wage growth.

7/12 The point is that the main problem isn't China. It is a system that rewards countries for policies that undermine overall global growth. The good news is that for many years, when Germany was able to exploit the global trade regime, it was also one of the greatest defenders of this system.

Love this chart. We all argue about the yellow band. Nobody talks about the green. Most US wealth since 1970 wasn’t built or borrowed. It’s holding gains as assets reprice higher. The yellow draws all the resentment, taxes, who pays, who takes. 50% of people don’t see green. 100% see yellow.

Fed's gotta hike

"Call it democracy, or call it democratic socialism, but there must be a better distribution of wealth within this country for all God's children." —MLK Jr.

Why it’s time for Democratic socialism!

I beat this drum occasionally, but now is as good a time as any: academic jobs are different from other jobs, but jobs - much like people - are different from each other. The horror of the academic job market is a species of the horror genre that is labor in this phase of capitalism. Precarity...

Incredible chart from @propublica.org. If you don’t follow enviro stuff closely, your instinct might be that the hold-your-nose solution (carbon capture from fossil fuels) would be the “pragmatic” one versus covering Earth in solar panels, which seems utopian. In fact it’s the opposite

lvl 10 boss for humans is accepting boredom

The oligarch driven clicktatorship doing what they do.

Love seeing people dunking on the idea that growth = inflation. But remember this idea is taken very seriously beyond just Trump shills

my kind of Jubilee, the Japanese national team vs. 100 kids

“How much is a magical world worth?” A beautiful thread about Cabo Verde, the Peace Corps, and the World Cup: