Inflation ⬆️ & Employment ⬇️ → Stagflation A difficult situation for the Fed. Cut interest rates now → risk of rising inflation ⬆️ More here: "Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End?" with Oli Coibion @empctmacrotx.bsky.social, shorturl.at/2fmOD #EconSky

How Wars in Foreign Countries Influence Inflation and Expectations That is what Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko explore in our most recent blog post "When Foreign Wars Abroad Hit Wallets at Home".

New working paper: The Dynamics of Technology Transfer: Multinational Investment in China and Rising Global Competition by @jaedochoi.bsky.social, George Cui, Younghun Shim & Yongseok Shin. Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

New (updated) working paper: The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social . Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

How News about the US Economy Drives Global Financial Conditions New blog post by Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social (UT graduate @utaustinecon.bsky.social 🤟) based on paper recently published in @reveconstudies.bsky.social. Short summary below ⬇️

How French Firms Navigated the Inflation Surge: Lessons for Expectations and Decision-Making New blog post by Oli Coibion, @erwan-gautier.bsky.social and Frédérique Savignac. Short summary follows ⬇️

Now also out as a EMPCT working paper! Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned and to What End? New paper by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social sheds new light on the recent inflation period and looks ahead.

It took a while, but we finally have a new (heavily revised) version out: nber.org/papers/w32305

Want to know more about firms' inflation expectations during the recent inflation surge? And how do their expectations correlate w/ wage expectations and firms' price setting? Check out the new EMPCT working paper by @erwan-gautier.bsky.social, Savignac & Coibion: sites.utexas.edu/macro/resear...

New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!

New working paper on French firms' inflation and wage expectations by Oli Coibion and coauthors!

Alarming

A cautionary take on the rise in inflation expectations in the UMich survey from @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social & Olie Coibion at @empctmacrotx.bsky.social... The pandemic "inflation surge experience has further unanchored [household & firm] expectations" sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

The blog post's documented patterns of inflation expectations & its conclusion below are consistent with the implications of attention changes documented in my paper on the inflation attention threshold (see Figure). Good to know, that the two Oli's at @utaustinecon.bsky.social agree 😅

What's happening with inflation expectations? Two often used household surveys disagree: - the Michigan MSC says inflation expectations are up - the NY Fed SCE says they're not... Which one is it? New blog by Oli Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social says: MSC is right! Find out why ⬇️

After a great first day of our conference yesterday, we look forward to an exciting second day!

Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)

Starting tomorrow: 𝐓𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐒 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐄𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐄𝐑𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 We have a great line-up of speakers & discussants (program below) including @alpsimsek.bsky.social, @kronerniklas.bsky.social, @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social, @mathpedemonte.bsky.social, @hugolhuillier.com, @elpuntoderocio.bsky.social (+ some not on here)

The Economics of Trade Bloc Formation: Who Wins from Decoupling? How have recent developments like the US-China trade war, Brexit, or the breakdown of economic ties between the West & Russia affected trade? New blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social & co-authors looks into these questions ⬇️

Congratulations Chris Boehm and @kronerniklas.bsky.social 🥳

New working paper by @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social and coauthors

Excited to spend AY-25-26 in Munich! Looking forward to lots of European travels :-) @lmumuenchen.bsky.social, thanks for hosting us

How quickly will workers adapt to AI-driven changes? New blog post: 𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Beraja & Adao Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

Our Monetary Policy Conference is in full swing! Kicked off by an inspiring keynote from Olivier Coibion @utaustinecon.bsky.social, we're now in intense parallel sessions, diving deep into the data & discussions. We look forward to more debates today & tomorrow! @cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social

How quickly will workers adapt to AI-driven changes? New blog post: 𝐒𝐤𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Beraja & Adao Link: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0...

10 year ago, Oli Coibion ( @empctmacrotx.bsky.social ) and I had a paper in AEJ Macro about inflation expectations in the U.S. (www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...). We found that oil/gasoline prices strongly predict inflation expectations. This "iron law" continues to hold. #inflation #EconSky

New blog post on summarizing the key findings from the paper "𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐞 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧fl𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧? 𝐀 𝐕𝐨𝐱 𝐏𝐨𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐢 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐜𝐡" by Coibion and coauthors: tinyurl.com/blogcoibion

New working paper by our co-director Oli Coibion and co-authors ⬇️ They find that households would sacrifice around 5% of lifetime consumption to eliminate business cycles or inflation. However, these numbers differ across households: exposure, uncertainty, etc., matter!

Tariffs—or the anticipation of them—could affect prices, according to Booth's Michael Weber (paper with @utaustinecon.bsky.social’s Olivier Coibion, @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social’s @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social) www.chicagobooth.edu/review/podca... #econsky

Oli Cobion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber wrote a new blog post on what Americans expect from the Trump tariffs: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0... Key results: they expect to bear a share of tariffs, firm managers expect to raise prices. Disagreement b/n Dems & Reps, and many more in blog

The February 2025 issue of AEJ: Economic Policy features articles by both Marika Cabral and Jackson Dorsey. @aeajournals.bsky.social

Oli Cobion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber wrote a new blog post on what Americans expect from the Trump tariffs: sites.utexas.edu/macro/2025/0... Key results: they expect to bear a share of tariffs, firm managers expect to raise prices. Disagreement b/n Dems & Reps, and many more in blog

Congratulations @nityanayar.bsky.social , Andrei Levchenko and Zhen Huo on your publication of "International Comovement in the Global Production Network" in @reveconstudies.bsky.social 🥳 Link to the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/artic...

Congratulations @nityanayar.bsky.social , Andrei Levchenko and Zhen Huo on your publication of "International Comovement in the Global Production Network" in @reveconstudies.bsky.social 🥳 Link to the paper: academic.oup.com/restud/artic...

Congratulations to Chris Boehm and former UT Austin grad @kronerniklas.bsky.social on getting their paper "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle" accepted at Review of Economic Studies @reveconstudies.bsky.social !🥳 @utaustinecon.bsky.social Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wak4l...

Congratulations to Chris Boehm and former UT Austin grad @kronerniklas.bsky.social on getting their paper "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle" accepted at Review of Economic Studies @reveconstudies.bsky.social !🥳 @utaustinecon.bsky.social Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/wak4l...

Congratulations to our co-director @nityanayar.bsky.social on becoming a new Board Member at @aeacswep.bsky.social!

New work by our co-director, Oli Coibion, together with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Michael Weber on the upcoming Trump tariffs ⬇️

New work by our co-director, Oli Coibion, together with @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social and Michael Weber on the upcoming Trump tariffs ⬇️

As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events like the fires in LA pose growing threats to economies. A blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Gaurav Khanna and @nicomorales.bsky.social discusses how firms adapt supply chains to these risks: tinyurl.com/abbw5mt3

Congratulations to @pfaeutiecon.bsky.social for his publication in the current issue of the Journal of Monetary Economics JME, co-authored with @klaus-adam.bsky.social and @treinelt.bsky.social! www.sciencedirect.com/journal/jour...

As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events like the fires in LA pose growing threats to economies. A blog post by @nityanayar.bsky.social, Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Gaurav Khanna and @nicomorales.bsky.social discusses how firms adapt supply chains to these risks: tinyurl.com/abbw5mt3

Very happy to have Sandy Black @econsandy.bsky.social back at UT Austin @utaustinecon.bsky.social!

🚨Job Market Paper Alert🚨 How do localized migrations shocks, such as deportations, impact aggregate productivity over time? I’m on the 2024-2025 #EconJobMarket, and my #EconJMP uncovers some of the unintended, long-lasting consequences of these policies. 🧵

Both households and firms are more attentive to inflation when inflation is high, supporting central predictions of models in which attention is endogenous www.econometricsociety.org/publications...

Congratulations to our co-director, Oli Coibion, PhD alum Hassan Afrouzi and co-authors on their publication in Econometrica

Happy Thanksgiving y’all! 🤘🍗

#econ_ra deadline 1/31/25

Let's try this new site 🔵 and let's start with something positive: we are looking for research assistants #predoc If you're interested in working with us on topics related to macro- & international economics, please apply. Details & how to apply: www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....