U.Mich final for Sept out -- rev'd down, and going down #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Paradox: Slowdown in labor market and income indicators, while consumption growth is unabated... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

“.. We have a term: ‘groceries.' It's an old term but it means basically what you're buying, food. It’s a pretty accurate term, but it's an old fashioned sound — but groceries are down."

That fågelkokatthundar nightstand that I bought from Ikea is apparently a national security threat. Who knew?

#EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

30% tariffs on upholstered furniture, in defense of the realm... Funnier as "we don't go to war in a Ford Fiesta" #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Looking backward, and forward: cons'n & personal income tomorrow even as Sept WEI drops #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Let 1,000 statues bloom

If this guy took PhD level macro, shouldn't he know the implications of his RBC's and DSGE's #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Please explain why... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Last night under the cover of darkness, the Trump-Epstein statue on temporary display at the National Mall near the Capitol was removed by the US Park Police -- despite having a permit to remain there until September 28. www.wusa9.com/article/news...

Miran v. Miran on r* #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

David Papell & Ruxandra Prodan-Boul on the Fed's new rule #EconSkybs econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Official quarterly GDP goes back only 75 years prior to EJ Antoni's August 2022 claim, not a 100 ... #EconSky #BLS econbrowser.com/archives/202...

And EJ Antoni (still) wants to be our latex salesman (recession edition) -- he apparently thinks the GDP series started in 1922... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Since the consumer expenditure survey release is delayed, might as well update "chicory" for "coffee" in the CPI food component... Food inflation problem solved! #EconSky

EJ Antoni used to care about U-6. Why hasn't he been doing so over the last eight months when U-6 has been rising faster than U-3? Inquiring minds want to know! #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

If you didn't believe the CES release..., well take a look at the CPS, QCEW measures... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Everyday prices rising at 2.9% (fast food too!), ytd Still waiting for prices to fall #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Civilian employment has peaked...if you think that's a recession indicator, you should be crying "recession"... Oh, and EJ Antoni's "sustainable" employment series has peaked, according to preliminary benchmark #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

You Are Here... #EconSky

#BLS nominee EJ Antoni's preferred measure of employment is "in the red" #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

There could not *possibly* have been a better choice. Great news. #econsky

Stephen Miran hangs his hat on a supply-side miracle to argue for forecast of rapid growth and rapidly slowing PCE inflation #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Industrial, mfg prodn, retail sales all above consensus... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

#Russia quarterly GDP, seasonally adjusted. On the whole Russia's economy has not grown in 2025. (Obviously military production remains at high level.) 1Q2024 +1.9% 2Q2024 +0.6% 3Q2024 +0.4% 4Q2024 +1.1% 1Q2025 -0.6% 2/2025 +0.4%

Fed Inflation Credibility Threatened #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Based on trade & mfg dependence, Wisconsin was predicted to be hit hard. How's it looking? #EconSky @wisconsineye.bsky.social econbrowser.com/archives/202...

EJ Antoni says the recession is *here*!!! (as of August ***'24***) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Thanks, Drumpf! #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Troika GDP f'cast >> CBO, SPF, ARIMA(0,1,0); final sales to priv dom purchasers (aka "core GDP") slows further #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

"Dead in the water" The Trump economy according to (frmr CBO Director, frmr GWBush CEA Chief Economist) Doug Holtz-Eakin #Econsky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Michigan sentiment (prel) declines again. #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

It looks like future historians will say that in all the annals of American economic governance, the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary—alongside the elevation of E.J. Antoni to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—was a critical sea-change away from institutional independence and... /

Wisconsin employment trend flat since late 2024; QCEW declining since Nov 2024 (thru Mar 2025) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

I don't see grocery prices going down soon... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

"EJ Antoni, Ph.D., will restore confidence and much needed integrity in the [BLS]" -- Sen. M. Mullin #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Instantaneous core (per Jan Eeckhout) up! #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

At INFER conference, "What *New* have we learned about dollar dominance as a reserve currency #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Vehicle miles traveled, freight transportation services, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept all below recent peaks #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Your econ term for the day is Technology Transfer. Once you understand it, you'll immediately see how destructive it was for ICE to frogmarch Hyundai's Korean workers off in chains.

Recommendations for candidates for BLS Commissioner: if you are going to make a stunning conclusion, (e.g., if you think the US has been in continuous recession since 2022), then provide the source data and code underlying that finding #econsky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

BLS releases annual preliminary benchmark revision, something they do every year. #JobsReport estimates are based on employer survey responses, that arrive quickly. Later, BLS checks slow-arriving, more-reliable administrative data from employers' UI premium filings. www.bls.gov/news.release...

Why an ICE raid on a Hyundai-LG factory means trade policy uncertainty measures rise... #econsky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

The overstatement of NFP growth in the 12 months up to 2025M03 seems to be...concentrated in the first three months of 2025 (i.e., Trump admin)... wow - is there anybody who does math/stats in the press office/NEC? #econksy econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Do you want to estimate mostly document employment, or documented and undocumented (total NFP)? It matters for which preliminary benchmark revision you use (official, or Goldman Sachs, etc.) #econsky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Lots of sudden “interest” in the preliminary benchmark revision. Here's a test: The BLS publishes detailed explanations of its methods. Ask a critic where the methods are explained. If they don’t know, they’re not critiquing methodology. They’re just partisans who are full of sh_t.