Subprime auto ABS deterioration #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Nowcasted "Core GDP" slows @atlantafed.org #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Is true Russian GDP above or below 2021 levels? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Nonfarm payroll employment estimates @philadelphiafed.bsky.social #Econsky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

where is China though 🤔

The year in review, 2025: Prices are *not* lower, but we have a hole in the ground where the East Wing used to be, and we're (eventually) going to get a ballroom... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Jeff Frankel: "Why didn't Trump's tariffs crash the economy in 2025?" #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

PLA military exercises around Taiwan, and geoeconomic risks #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Tariffs did little damage to US GDP & inflation in 2025. Explanatn? 1. Govt shutdown derailed late-year stats 2. Trump backed off the most extreme tariffs 3. Importers stockpiled ahead 4. Firms absorbed higher prices, rather than passing on fully to consumers. Probably in 2026. prosyn.org/2Rk6QVY

Why haven’t Trump’s tariffs crashed the US economy? | Jeffrey Frankel

REMINDER: Republicans sent Congress home for the holidays without addressing the health care crisis they’ve inflicted on this country.

Highly variable lags btwn corp profit and bus cycle peaks...#EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

4.3% q/q AR growth, vs. MAR 0.65 ppts advance to 3rd release; lessons from the 2001 recession #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

EJ Antoni on how Heritage Foundation remains a bastion of free-trade economics #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Employment v. output indicators #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Tariff offset tax

GDP at 4.3% q/q AR v. consensus 3.3%! But GDO at 3.4%, and GDP+ at 2.6%. "core GDP" at 3.0%, up fm 2.9% in Q3, but below level of Nov SPF #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social econbrowser.com/archives/202...

GDP +4.3% in Q3, but GDO up 3.3%, and GDP+ up 2.6%. "Core GDP" up 3.0%... #EconSky

James Hamilton: Good news from the GDP report "The new numbers bring the Econbrowser recession indicator index down to 2.7% ...The latest numbers put to rest the concern that a recession might have started earlier this year." #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Conference Board confidence 2.5 std devn below Nov., Gallup 3 std devn #EconSky

James Hamilton will discuss tomorrow's Q3 GDP "initial release" on econbrowser.com; Bloomberg consensus is 3.3% SAAR #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Miran is a Fed governor apart #EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social econbrowser.com/archives/202...

2025Q3 growth: Atlanta Fed at 3.5%, GS at 3.6%, St. Louis Fed at 0.4% (all SAAR). Nowcasted "Core GDP" growth drops to 2.4% fm 2.9% in Q2 #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social @stlouisfed.bsky.social @newyorkfed.bsky.social #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@heritagefdn.bsky.social EJ Antoni now heads CDA #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Real mfg value added up 1.3% 2025Q2/2024Q4, but employment measures all seem to be now trending downward #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

(w/data corrections) Beware the population controls in the household survey derived employment series #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

The DoJ made it easy to download everything that they released, which any experienced journalist does with document dumps by default (even if they don’t make it easy). So deleting without explanation is just dumb. It’s never going to work. It’s going to directly draw attention to what you delete.

Republicans remain largely impervious to economic news. There's only slight erosion of expectations #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

How "unlikely" was the November core CPI? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Sahm indicator up assuming 4.5% unemployment rate in October, does *not* breach 0.5% threshold (Thanks to Pawel Skrzypczynski points out an error in my prior calculation!). If unemployment at 4.7% in October, then we'd hit threshold #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

The next financial crisis is coming ... www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/the-... "The key to preventing a financial crisis is to keep the non-regulated (or poorly regulated) areas of finance out of the financial system."

Real retail sales decline again #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

The employment release - negative or positive growth? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Confess I had not thought through the implications of no data collection in Oct. for Nov.'s jobs report until I read BLS's FAQ. 1)CPS is a panel. No collection in Oct means no new respondents initiated into the survey, and so many more need to be added in Nov. 2)above clearly has implications for

On the eve of the oct/nov employment release… including Powell’s conjecture on BLS birth/death model, will implement growth exceed prior peak? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

The RFK, jr effect.

Various employment paths #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Not sure tariffs (or slower income growth) have actually reduced underlying imports #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Powell on m/m negative NFP growth since April...Heavy truck sales collapse 29% thru Nov. Recession? Beware historical correlations when conditions change a lot... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Nowcasted "Core GDP" decelerates further #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Paweł Skrzypczyński on JOLTS implications for October NFP compared w/ADP #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Employee sentiment dropped further in the November Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. 44.6% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers in November, down from 45.9% in October. Despite the shutdown ending, worker anxiety remains high. www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...

As a constituent, I am asking that @governorwalz.mn.gov and @keithellison.bsky.social arrest these men and prosecute them before they kidnap someone and intentionally freeze them to death

If the Supreme Court strikes down the IEEPA tariffs, it'll be worse than Pearl Harbor? Trump thinks so... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

q at record levels. Does it mean anything? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

☃️☕ You’re invited to a CFPB Union rally! 🪧💈 HOW THE VOUGHT STOLE YOUR MONEY 1-2pm Thursday, Dec 11 CFPB HQ, 1700 G Street NW, Washington, DC There will be hot cocoa, good people and good vibes, as well as a special holiday performance.