Economic news sentiment plunged in April during the time of tariff announcements, and has since only marginally recovered www.frbsf.org/research-and...

GDPNow (Atlanta Fed) is projecting Q3 growth at close to 4% www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...

GDPNow (Atlanta Fed) is projecting Q3 growth at close to 4% www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...

Problems now, bigger ones ahead.

FT poll

This is a big problem www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...

BlueSky not looking so good www.pewresearch.org/journalism/f...

BlueSky not looking so good www.pewresearch.org/journalism/f...

This is a big problem www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...

There’s been a steady decline in moving, for both renters and home owners

There’s been a steady decline in moving, for both renters and home owners

The split between twitter (X) and actual sentiment that began in mid 2024 looks like it might be permanent

Shana Tova 🍎🍯

The split between twitter (X) and actual sentiment that began in mid 2024 looks like it might be permanent

I found this somewhat encouraging, that at least there is widespread trust in MMR and Polio vaccines www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/...

Broken down by percentile. Some of this is likely the pandemic, but it started beforehand

Not good www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...

Not good

Looking forward to this on.ft.com/463pXXW

Not good

Not good www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...

The Covid shock’s impact on consumer spending www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

The Covid shock’s impact on consumer spending www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

“While the June 2025 [employment] revision is negative and large, some other past revisions have been of similar or greater magnitude. The likelihood of having a revision of this size or larger is small but not negligible, about 7%, or 1 in 14 chance of occurring.” www.frbsf.org/research-and...

“While the June 2025 [employment] revision is negative and large, some other past revisions have been of similar or greater magnitude. The likelihood of having a revision of this size or larger is small but not negligible, about 7%, or 1 in 14 chance of occurring.” www.frbsf.org/research-and...

Still a thick tail in the PCE inflation distribution That is, lots if sectors with >2% inflation (Chart by Goldman)

Still a thick tail in the PCE inflation distribution That is, lots if sectors with >2% inflation (Chart by Goldman)

Wow

This makes more sense than a Big Bang www.popularmechanics.com/space/deep-s...

An inflation forecast retrospective by the FRB “This paper examines the Board staff’s inflation forecast misses over the years following the COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on a timeline of what staff members knew when and lessons learned along the way.” www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

An inflation forecast retrospective by the FRB “This paper examines the Board staff’s inflation forecast misses over the years following the COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on a timeline of what staff members knew when and lessons learned along the way.” www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

One takeaway: the timing of supply and demand shocks played an important role in the evolution of inflation over this period

As part today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 Framework Review: Ina Hajdini, Lee Smith, Daniel Villar and I wrote a paper documenting the sources of inflation dynamics over 2020-2025 period: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

As part today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 Framework Review: Ina Hajdini, Lee Smith, Daniel Villar and I wrote a paper documenting the sources of inflation dynamics over 2020-2025 period: www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...

The trend to Idiocracy

The trend to Idiocracy

Something weird happened to X in mid 2024

Nice chart showing that deficit spending is on an historically unsustainable path on.ft.com/4fKwYjs

Nice chart showing that deficit spending is on an historically unsustainable path on.ft.com/4fKwYjs

It’s the higher educated who have been more worried about a recession

Tariffs are boosting goods inflation

This headline is not entirely accurate. www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

Tariffs are boosting goods inflation

Drinking is becoming out of fashion news.gallup.com/poll/693362/...

A negative externality fortune.com/2025/08/11/w...

A negative externality fortune.com/2025/08/11/w...

Core goods inflation has been mainly supply-driven since January 2025. (Meaning prices up sales down)

Core goods inflation has been mainly supply-driven since January 2025. (Meaning prices up sales down)

Restrictive monetary policy reduces demand-driven inflation, and has no statistically significant effect on supply-driven inflation www.frbsf.org/research-and...